Richie the Rally Goat

I was at the game and got to “Ask Seth” in person today at the backfields. He maintains the ball never came in the press box, but from my vantage on the first base stands it clearly did.

they have him locked up until he’s 28. With the injuries and his reliance on speed, I’m not sure it makes sense to extend him. If he hits like Torii he can move to RF like him. If he can’t then you’ve got how many years committed to at best a 4th outfielder. Torii played CF until his age 36 season, but if you believe the fielding metrics (great point of debate) his UZR150 went from 3.4 to -9 from his age 29 to 30 seasons. So if Falvey offers Buxton a 5 year extension for 50 mil, would that mend the fence? I’m not sure. I’m not sure either side would do that. I think Buxton gets traded too, prolly by the All Star break to bring back pitching.

if ERA is your stat of choice measure the quality of a pitcher, you’ll hate Keuchel as a MN Twin. Ground ball pitcher plus Sano and Polanco’s fielding equals bloated ERA and early exits with bases loaded. If FIP is your stat of choice to determine pitcher quality Keuchel has been trending worse and worse for the last 3 years and could be cooked. Either way.... I would be leery of signing Keuchel with his contract demands, and Keuchel will not sign a 1 year make-good with the Twins. Not with that infield

Signing Keuchel would cost theTwins their third highest pick in the rule 4 draft as a revenue sharing receiving club. Source is AZ Phil of the Cub Reporter https://www.thecubreporter.com/compensation-loss-article-xx-b-qualified-player Quote: NOTE: Prior to the post-2017 off-season, a player had seven days to decide whether to accept a QO. If a Qualified Player subsequently signs a Major League contract with another (different) MLB club on or before the day prior to the MLB Rule 4 Draft (MLB First-Year Player Draft), the player's former club (the club that lost the Qualified Player) normally will receive a compensatory draft pick in the MLB Rule 4 Draft between the 2nd & 3rd rounds (after Competitive Balance Round "B"). EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would receive a compensatory draft pick immediately after the conclusion of the 1st round (prior to Competitive Balance Round "A") - IF - the Qualified Player signs a contract worth at least $50M (the club would receive a compensatory draft pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds and after Competitive Balance Round "B" if the Qualified Player signs a contract worth less than $50M), and an MLB club that is a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would receive a draft pick between the 4th & 5th rounds. NOTE: If more than one club receives the same type of compensatory pick, the draft order for the comp picks is the same as it is for all other rounds in that draft (clubs select in inverse order of league standings from the previous season, and in the case of two clubs finishing with the same record the previous season, league standings from two seasons back will be used to break the tie, and if the clubs are still tied, league standings from three seasons back, four seasons back, etc, will be used to break the tie). If a Qualified Player signs a Major League contract with another (different) club on the day of or anytime after the MLB Rule 4 Draft, or if a Qualified Player signs a minor league contract with another (different) club and either remains in the minor leagues or is later added to that club's MLB 40-man roster, the player's new club does NOT forfeit a Rule 4 Draft pick, and the player's former club does NOT receive Rule 4 Draft pick compensation. However, MLB clubs are not permitted to sign a Qualified Player to a minor league contract just to avoid losing a draft pick. An MLB club that signs a Qualified Player (not including its own Qualified Players) to a Major League contract prior to the Rule 4 Draft deadline forfeits its 2nd highest selection in the next MLB Rule 4 Draft and $500,000 is subtracted from its assigned International Signing Bonus Pool (ISBP) in the next full International Signing Period (ISP) for each Qualified Player signed. EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would surrender its 3rd highest selection in the draft but nothing is subtracted from the club's ISBP in the next full ISP, and an MLB club that is a CBT payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would forfeit its 2nd & 5th selection in the draft and have $1,000,000 subtracted from its ISBP in the next ISP for each Qualified Player signed. NOTE: The Competitive Balance Tax threshold will be $195M in 2017, $197M in 2018, $206M in 2019, $208M in 2020, and $210M in 2021. The next highest Rule 4 Draft pick (or draft picks) will be forfeited if a club signs more than one Qualified Player (one draft pick forfeited for each Qualified Player signed). NOTE: A CBT payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would forfeit its 3rd & 6th highest selections if the club signs a second Qualified Player, its 4th & 7th selections if the club signs a third Qualified Player, and its 8th & 9th highest selections, 10th & 11th highest selections, etc, for additional Qualified Players signed. End Quote

I'm not satisfied with either the rotation or the bullpen and signing a free agent starter could help on both fronts. I'm not sure Keuchel is that guy .That infield is made for a strikeout fly-out pitcher.

Could also be coincidental to other players performing better in those periods. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation

thanks for providing insight Heezy, always appreciate your POV

bingo! if Miguel Sano bunts against the shift, the shift worked

because you can’t argue with the cop. You have to make your case with the judge. Heck of a lot of work for a $150 speeding ticket, but .... https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/02/were_you_wrongly_ticketed_for.html Now you’ll notice it’s not exactly apples to apples as it’s not the same device. Point is, technology is fallible.

don’t sleep on Kohl Stewart. While not a big K guy, he was solid in his debut.

oh no! Perish the thought! Too many valuable trade assets? Whatever shall we do?

GET MONEY!

I got to “The Nature Boy” before I realized who wrote this! Classic!

I like this format. I’m not a fan of Twitter, and quit several years ago. I follow your feed(and many others) but i’ll never get back into Twitter. This feels more intimate/inviting. I appreciate your thoughtful response to my question. As to during games... it’s also during game threads. GTs are Vegas for me. I’m not as active in them as I was when TD first launched, but I usually check in a couple times during a game, a few games a week. What happens in GTs stays in GTs, and it’s really tangential. I like that, and don’t want to compete with that. If this were to become a regular or semi regular thing, it would be great if it were around the season landmarks. ST, Opener, Draft, All Star,non Waiver deadline, waiver deadline/roster expansion, hopefully wild card and so on...

Huge coaching shakeup in the off season. What is the impact in spring training so far? How are the players accepting and adapting to the new techniques and points of view? How is this perceived as rippling through hte minor leagues?

this is a really good post! Any thoughts to working this up in a longer form? Maybe a blog post? I’d like to see this fleshed out and bit of debate in the forum

agreed. Falvey and Levine also love to trade away expiring contracts. Look for Castro to get the 2/3 share until mid July then get traded away

agreed, there are significant IF questions. there are also significant outfield questions. My hunch is Granite comes off the 40 to make room for Gonzalez. Counting on Cave to repeat .800 OPS (or even .730) while sporting 30% k rate and 6% bb rate with only one season of showing any power seems foolish. Buxton has been hurt every major league season. Rosario had his breakout, and has been known to leave his head in the clubhouse during games. Kepler seems on the verge of breaking out and has been the model of consistency. So 1 out of 4 is really reliable and one seems pretty close. Kepler is doomed to be injured for large stretches of 2019. That’s just how it works for Twins fans. My guess is Cave, and Big Toe get stashed in AAA to start the season. Astudillo starts the season on the bench but gets sent down when a 8th reliever is needed, and if Polanco or Schoop get injured significantly, Big Toe comes up. Austin gets DFA’d and they’ll try to sneak him through waivers during the crush at the end of ST.

why not both?

Cron?

How can a guy with "the kiss of death to relievers" also be a lock to the bullpen? With Pineda, Perez and Odorizzi in the rotation, having multiple relievers be effective for 2 innings plus is going to be critical to the bullpen, especially if the intention is to keep it a 12 man staff. Mejia seems likely to fit that bill. Weapon and long relief don't really jive, but is that Romero? Who else? Giving up a ton of dingers doesn't bode well in the longer appearance or the shorter appearance role... Magill has to be on the outside looking in right now

If the innings per start is down to 5.2 then relief innings per game is 3.1 - the roster size stays the same, so doesn't the average relief appearance need to increase? If pace of play such a concern, shouldn't the roster shrink? that would force longer relief appearances.

I’m there March 11-19. 3 days at the ballpark and the rest with the fam chasing my 5 yo and 19 mo around Disney and beaches around Tampa/Ft Myers. I had to cave on Disney to get 3 days at the ballpark.

Isnt Reed the poster child for not signing the second tier relievers? He was a 2 year deal for reasonable money. Like you said, nothing is certain, but if you fail to develop pitchers for a decade, you gotta do something, right?

https://www.mlb.com/news/willians-astudillo-to-display-skill-set-in-19/c-304048078 Does Astudillo have a chance to make the team out of spring training? His contact ability creates interesting lineup options.