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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Really happy with the one year plus option deal. Deleted URL as it was not an official announcement. Team has not confirmed
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    the opener was tested in the minors last year before being deployed in the bigs, would we see the same with the proposed shift in position player utilization, or would it start in MLB ST?
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    I think the market for Marwin Gonzalez could be a barometer to the league following suit with the Dodgers. The play every day utility guy could have more value to the market than the only Twins player (coming off a down year) not named Killebrew to have a 40 homer season. Maybe Cron, Schoop, and Austin are money ball type signings; while Ehire and Big Toe are ways to keep flexibility without breaking the bank on a play every day guy flexible guy. I’d prefer a whole team full of positionally flexible every day hitting types, but that player is en vogue. If your model is As and Rays, and not Dodgers, market inefficiencies are where you live. It probably makes the margins of the roster that much more important, just gotta get more creative finding the next MGs.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    swing man is definitionally 6th starter who does long relief until you need a 6th starter.... Agreed tho, in the pen or not on the roster for Mejia and Romero. The rest of that list are great in AAA/AA
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    please tell me they went the same way as Bill Smith
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    if they aren’t better than alternatives then are you trying to get worse? Mejia is out of options, and is a fine swing man or 5th starter or trade candidate. He should have no impact on extending either/both Gibson and Odorizzi. Romero could be out of options. It sounds like he’s moving to the pen, which I think is a good move.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    how does this advance the conversation? Where do we go from here? Is sustained excellence 75 wins with a roster comprised entirely of homegrown talent still in arbitration or earlier?
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    just cuz they’re out of options doesn’t make them better than Odorizzi or Gibson
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    of that list? Berrios and maybe one more will/could be in the 2020 rotation for more than half the season. Highest likelihood is Mejia, but that whole list outside of Berrios should be 6-10 in the major league rotation for ‘20. Romero has promise but there’s talk of putting him in the pen. Several on that list will end up in the pen.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_797 Per Wikipedia a caterpillar 797 runs $5mil
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'm in the lock up Odorizzi camp, and try to lock up Gibson both for the 2-4 year range if the right deal can be struck. Today the opening day 2019 rotation appears to have beyond 2019 only Berrios. By spring of 2020 odds are low that the current batch of prospects will graduate from the minors 2 or more pitchers capable of going 4+ innings that are better than Odorizzi and Gibson. Odorizzi is a good baseline. Having Odorizzi as your 5th starter in 2020 means you've got 4 starters better than him. that's a better place to be than 2018 and every year prior going back to 2012. Trades and free agency can get you there, but 4 rotation spots all improvements over Odorizzi without him in the sample is expensive and would take resources away from other areas of the team that also need improvement such as the bullpen.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Could be as Parker brought up here, hitting to CF works against him. A bit more muscle could help carry the ball further. Pulling it just a bit could turn those outs into doubles and homers too. And a Parker article about Keplers work on launch angle. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28871-article-launch-angles-in-the-outfield/?do=findComment&comment=720055 It all points to how close he might be to just going monster ape-poop-crazy
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Kepler’s strike out rate was 15% and his hard hit rate 34.5% as is his fly ball rate 46% Babip at .236 with HR/FB at 9.9%. Seems to me like he’s jumping on the right pitches and crushing them, but getting underneath them. Sounds to me like Rowson has an opportunity to look like a rockstar if he can help make a slight correction to Keplers swing.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Top farm system gets you what exactly? Having high end players 26-40 on the 40 man roster is critical, but won’t win a World Series. “Blocking future stars” is just another way is saying that the prospects aren’t better than a decrepit washed up old has-beens. Polanco and Buxton are fantastic examples of the old regime’s mismanagement of the farm. You’ve got 6 years to graduate a player to the bigs. Buxton is an example of getting promoted too quickly and trading away the incumbent before the heir apparent is ready. Polanco on the other was left too long in the rookie leagues, before he made it to double A, they had to add him to the 40 man and desperation put him on the active roster to sit and rot. Both put in terrible positions due to inadequate free agent signings. Rather than spend the money for a replacement level player, Polanco languished on the bench. I get trading big leaguers for pitching prospects but rather than spend the money on a good CF or 4th outfielder they were committed to Buxton flailing away in the bigs. We saw how Buxtons service time got mismanaged with the shenanigan Falvey pulled in Sept.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Mike brings this one up regularly, but so far hasn't... honestly I'm a little disappointed.... How does one sustain anything when there are no payroll commitments past 2019 or 2020? Roster turnover of 30% when you lose 100 games is good. Roster turnover of 30% when you win 85 games... well...
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    This must be similar to the process MLBTR used to identify the Twins as the most likely target.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    "Hope" is not a strategy, but that seems to be the sales pitch.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    for that very reason Schoop wasn’t gonna sign a 2 or 3 year deal. It’s not that I don’t like Schoop signing, i do, I’d just rather sign a 3 year deal with a quality and flexible fielder with a similar stat line.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    with the signing of Big Toe he might be replaced.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    doesnt that depend on what they do with the rest of the roster needs? If Falvine were to swing a trade for an Arb 1 or 3-4 year contract starter and sign a couple high end relievers would you be so down on Schoop? I would have preferred Marwin to a multi year deal, but at least Schoop’s got something to prove.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    it shows that the Twins have made moves to fill out the infield. There’s still more work to be done, hopefully 2-3 pitchers and maybe an outfielder with a big stick
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    FTFY
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2396&position=C/1B&season=2018 He’s a better L vs R hitter but good from both sides Career L vs R OPS .816 OBP .376 R vs L OPS .800 OBP .357 2018 his OBP was exactly .352 from both sides but ops was still stronger as a L vs R (.816) R vs L (.747). I like adding Santana’s bat to the lineup, but man they gotta do something in the middle infield, and the bullpen (and starting pitching and OF). If I had to prioritize, it would be bullpen over 1b over 2b. I think they can do 1b and bullpen but 2b might be bargain bin shopping....
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    the issue here is less the strategy and more the execution. Ryan and his staff were no longer able to be better than their peers at identifying, acquiring and developing better players. And so, if the Twins should not acquire super star or ace and have thus far been unable to develop one, they find themselves back in the early aughts era of Twins teams. A team that's good enough to win a mediocre division but get booted by the Yankees in the first series of the post season every year. building a well balanced team is only the start and one that should be the aspiration for 2019. It should not be the ultimate goal for 2020, 2021 and beyond.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    they agreed to an approx4 mil contract fully guaranteed. Arbitration is not guaranteed until the season starts. There are pro rated amounts up until that point that are due the player. However there is a payroll target already in place. Any money not spent towards that stays in JP’s pocket. Money put towards that in arb salaries that get cut could get back filled as salary taken on in trade.... but more likely would just go back into JP’s pocket. So from my standpoint, use it or lose it. I’d rather aim higher and let the holes left be filled by the kids. If rolling into ST and the music stops, and the Twins find themselves without a 2b, might as well see what you got in Gordon/Adrianza/Astudillo/Arraez... don’t bother with the million dollar flier on Dozier
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