Chembry

Noah Davis signed a minor league deal with the Pirates. Literally one of the worst pitchers in the history of MLB. Highest ERA by any MLB pitcher with at least 60 IP since 1890. How is he still getting a chance? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/pirates-sign-noah-davis-to-minor-league-deal.html

Dan Hayes reported the Ryan and the Twins were pretty close, but couldn’t finalize the deal.

I believe they can continue to negotiate up until the date of the hearing. The hearing is only held if both sides can’t come to an agreement on a one year or multi year deal prior to the date of the hearing.

I found a prep scouting report when I was digging some information. In that report, Keaschall was reported at throwing 83mph. His average last year was 74.7 mph with a max of 78.3 mph. It's a reasonable assumption that he will get back to at least 83 mph and probably higher than that given that his body has developed more. However, at 83mph. that would put him in the 40-45th percentile in MLB and on the lower end of LFs, on par with Brandon Nimmo, Riley Greene, Max Kepler, Andrew Benintendi range for LF.

Let me help you with a ~1pm update from MLBTR:

There is no way the Phillies trade Aidan Miller for 1 year of Jeffers, unless they have an agreement to extend Jeffers. However, Jeffers is a Boras client and Boras typically discourages extensions and wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value.

Like @ashbury said, seems to be quotes from Zoll. Falvey was on record at the GM meetings stating Prielipp and Raya by name as bullpen candidates.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-sign-orlando-arcia-to-minor-league-deal.html

I am struggling to see how Wagaman is a “terrible” defender…I will be the first to admit that I didn’t see him play very many games and really not a huge fan of the move, but his defensive metrics aren’t exactly terrible. Baseball savant has him at -1 OAA on the 1B leaderboard. That’s puts him at 21st of 40 qualified 1B, ahead of Vlad Jr, Colby Mayo, Paul Goldschmidt, Nick Kurtz, Vinnie Pasquatino, and several others. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2025&endYear=2025&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=hide Fielding Bible also has him at a -1 defensive runs saved. I input a minimum of 800 innings played, but that leaderboard has him at 11th of 21. That doesn’t scream terrible. He’s not Matt Olson or Carlos Santana good, but seems serviceable. Fangraphs- I used a minimum of 800 innings. FRV has him 15th of 21. OAA has him 11th of 21. Def has him 7th of 21. This is a low wattage move that will either be AAA depth or platoon at 1B. His splits against LHP were pretty good last year. The more frustrating part of this move is why Julien or Gasper weren’t released instead of Fitzgerald. Maybe the Twins had a sense that Arcia would sign the minor league contract.

I also like Casas as a hitter. Is it worth a lottery ticket prospect for a high upside 1B? I don't know, but I do think it's worth taking a hard look. The injury history is weird. His rib cartilage injury was documented in the Netflix series. Casas swings hard and tore cartilage during a swing. His knee injury didn't happen while running. He stepped on 1B with his right leg and his left leg caught Ty Frances' leg while crossing the bag. That tripped him up and his left knee hit the ground really hard rupturing his patellar tendon. I would call those freak injuries, but injuries nonetheless.

Casas is a young 1B who has consistently posted above average OPS+ numbers. He is still only 25 (for a few more weeks), but a career 118 OPS+. He won't blow anyone away with BA, but will consistently post a BA that is league average, while having well above average OBP and SLG numbers. Yes, he is slow and has similar defensive numbers as Josh Bell. But he could immediately contribute to the lineup and be a presence for several years and will be cheap this year. Projected arbitration salary is $1.7M. You can't get that sort of production on the open market for that cheap. It is definitely a buy low situation for Casas. Yes, he is a LHH 1B, but career splits are virtually identical, albeit a much smaller sample size for LHP: vs RHP: 757 PA, .241/.345/.452/.796 vs LHP: 195 PA, .242/.359/.455/.814 I am not saying the Twins should go out and trade for Casas, although I wouldn't be upset about it. The Twins tried to get Casas last offseason (2024-2025), but the Red Sox wanted Ryan in return. The question is, is it worth a lottery ticket prospect for a high upside, with a freak injury history? https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/onsi/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-love-twins-all-star-asked-for-him-in-triston-casas-talks-report-jackson3 Side note- I don't know if any of you here have watched "Clubhouse: A year with the Red Sox" on Netflix. If you haven't, I highly recommend. It's a fantastic look into the clubhouse, ups and downs of the year, and just what players deal with on and off the field. Jarren Duran and Triston Casas are highlighted a lot in that show.

The intent behind the Kyle Farmer comment was two-fold. One was that the Twins tendered him a contract while trying to find a trade partner. Ultimately the Twins weren't able to trade Farmer which could be from a myriad of different reasons. The other reason is exactly what you stated. On top of the Larnach's offensive value essentially being replaceable, his defensive value is a net negative. Given the status of the roster and the OF prospect depth in AAA, his salary would be better spent on upgrading the roster elsewhere.

At this point, I would argue it doesn't really matter what the return for Larnach would be. His projected $4.7M salary and roster spot would be best spent upgrading elsewhere. However, I fear we will be in the same situation we were with Kyle Farmer.

Cross Armstrong off the list...Guardians are signing him for 1yr/$5.5M. Fits your assessment that RP contracts are coming in above expected. Listening to Gleeman today, he made a statement that I could see happening. If Prielipp breaks camp with the team, he could be one of the teams best relievers by August.

I didn't say that late signings lead to bad contracts or poor performance. I didn't even insinuate that. I just stated facts. I am not sure why you brought up that those signings met or exceeded expectations. That had nothing to do with what I posted. My point was, the Twins were looking at "mid-tier" 1B. There are several of those guys available in November/December (lets say 6-8 of them). As the offseason moves along and those guys start signing elsewhere. The trickle down effect is now we have fewer FA available in February to potentially sign (lets say 1-3). We would only get to pick from the limited number available and not from the larger pool of free agents that were available in November/December. In this case, instead of waiting out the market, they showed some conviction and were proactive targeting the guy they wanted. We can question why they targeted Bell, but what I like is that they acted. Has nothing to do with the quality of the signing or if Bell will perform.

That doesn't negate the fact they signed within a few weeks of spring training.

I agree...would much rather trade Larnach. I want Wallner as the primary DH. But I don't see a scenario where the Twins carry both Larnach and Wallner in to 2026. Like I said, the Twins need to make a decision. I would rather Larnach be traded.

LOL! I don't know what you get for Larnach...a lottery ticket, a minor league P... but I would be ok with that. We all still question why the Twins tendered him a contract in the first place. Twins have some decisions to make. To me in terms of OF depth, Larnach and Wallner are the odd men out defensively. Cut bait and move on.

My current thinking is that we trade either Wallner or Larnach. We can't go into the season with both on the roster. Hopefully Outman isn't anywhere near the roster.

To me, the most encouraging news is that the Twins didn't wait out the market. Years past they waited out the market until spring training and signed a leftover. Recent signings of Carlos Santana, Ty France, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe were all within a week or so of spring training. Seems like they targeted Bell and went out and signed him. We can question who they targeted and why, but I am happy they actually being proactive. Now lets sign a few arms.

Personally, I like Nathaniel Lowe better. He is a gold glove caliber 1B and won a silver slugger. According to MLBTR, he could be had at 1yr/$5-6M. Bell isn’t inspiring, but at least he is a decent hitter, albeit streaky.

Twins signed Josh Bell to a 1-year deal with a mutual option for 2027

Earlier in the Offseason, O’s fans were asking on MLBTR chats what it would take to get Ryan, MLBTR staff all said Mayo or Westburg as the headliner. That’s the reason I mentioned Ryan or Lopez. Obviously, it could be different now and I would have no argument against that. He was a consensus top 50 prospect a year ago. But you are right, it’s a different conversation when asking what would it take to get Mayo. To be clear, I would like Mayo. His power is very real, but he is a risk. If we can get him by trading Ober or SWR, I would do it. The Twins FO has historically been risk averse and I would like to see them take a few risks this offseason. Whether that’s taking a risk on trading for a young 1B like Mayo, Ryan Clifford, Tre Morgan, Jonathon Long, or Bryce Eldridge (very hard to get)…or signing a FA like O’Hearn, Lowe, Okamoto to contract longer than a year.

He won a silver slugger as well. We don’t know what was going on behind the scenes in Washington, but Lowe was right back to Texas level production in Boston. Lowe makes a ton of sense, both financially and performance, assuming he plays similar to his Texas and Boston level of production. If the Twins can get Lowe for a $5-6M AAV contract, that leaves room to sign several relievers. Here is a picture of the question I asked and Franco’s response.