Hawkeye Bean Counter

I could see the team win this year, but for me this year isn't a make or break for me. I really think the early start last year and signing Correa last year, delayed the necessary rebuild. This management team hasn't had the opportunity at a true rebuild due to early unexpected success. Now some of those players we traded last year could be helping are no longer available for future years. I still have a feeling the Mahle trade is going to be a major blunder for the front office when we look back in a decade unless we can sign him long term or trade him at the deadline for a nice haul I would like to see them remain competitive through mid season but tail off enough before trade deadline that they don't overspend again at the trade deadline. What I want to see this year is if we can begin to slot in 4-5 key cogs from the young players that can allow us to be competitive in the very near future to add to Buxton. Those that I will be watching (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Varland, Winder, Ober). We may have a few other players pop up. I am already considering Ryan and Duran as key pieces. I also want to see another well run draft. I also want to see significant progress in the minor leagues :). I would also like to see us lock up 1-2 of the pitchers for the next 4-5 years. Whether is Mahle or Gray. Any other extensions for young players would be an added bonus.

NM

My best guess Sonny Gray was 2.4 WAR last year even with injury stints. Proj: 2.5 WAR Joe Ryan I thought he performed worse in 2nd half but all the metrics pretty close. Just a bad august for ERA. Proj: 2.2 WAR Kenta Maeda - I would say is a reliever for as much of the year as start Proj: 1.1 WAR Tyler Mahle - He becomes a massive trade chip most likely, I think the Twins unlock him next year Proj: 6+ Ober ??? How much can he pitch Paddack - 1/2 year limited innings count - Proj: .5 WAR Varland Proj: 1.5 Winder ???? Proj: .5

I think you are reading far too much into this. Both Correa and Boras want the highest dollar, and they could care less where it comes from is my opinion. Cohen has more money to blow essentially, so I would still say the Mets have the advantage in offering a higher contract than the Twins if they are still interested. I still don't see anyway a smaller contract isn't less than $200 million. The issue Cohen is fighting is the luxury tax, so every extra mil in extra AAV is an extra mil in Taxes. So if the AAV goes up 10 mil, he is paying 20 mil. Due to the 13 year contract I would say Cohen is already at a pain point is my guess. The radio silence seems to benefit the Mets and Correa getting something resolved, the length of the radio silence continues to point to another team ultimately getting his services on shorter term deal. If the Mets don't close the deal by Saturday, My guess is he signs with another Team. However those able to pay to get something done are just a few. Twins, Red Sox, Cardinals in that order would be my guess. Giants have spent more money after the deal fell through, and I think have a bad taste in their mouth from the fallout of the original deal. I don't see anyway the current deal goes through and I don't see anyway Correa will put in a clause that negates the contract in the later years if he gets injured.

The most likely outcome is the arthritis wasn't there. Even still I don't think arthritis developing will even inhibit a 5, 6 or 7 year contract. It is the years after that are primarily at risk. Now on MLB network they discussed this morning the possibility of the arthritis beginning to flair up, then causing gait changes ect that would cause the back to flair up. That would be a concern. Money wise what is the current situation. Mets would likely have to increase the AAV by 8-10 mill a year, with the tax of 90% that is close to 20 million. Even for someone with essentially unlimited resources I think that is likely too much for Cohen. This is where the Twins could come back into play. The Giants I believe have spent the majority of their dollars on Conforto and Rogers. Maybe the twins would have a bit of an issue with the 2 contracts they signed, 20 mil, but my guess is they could still maneuver to get it covered. Whether it is still a smart contract to do or not, that is the question. I am guessing 6 for 210 million is what is likely to get agreed to. 35 mil a year.

A medical expert came out and speculated what the most likely issue is if he is currently passing physicals but there is issues with imaging, is that arthritis is beginning to develop around the repair. This is something that would be reasonable why the Twins wouldn’t have had previous concerns. However it takes any of these long dated contracts off the table. I don’t see any way the current Mets contract gets pass the finish line if this is the case. Now it come down to how many years and how high of an AAV are teams willing to go and the Mets currently have the floor.

A medical professional came out and speculated that if he is passing physicals now, but concerns are arising from imaging it is most likely arthritis is beginning to develop in the joint and area. It essentially takes any long term deal past 6 years off the table.

Dan, I completely agree with you. We had individuals on this website posting articles how they are done with this organization/ownership/management. I can understand being semi upset, we should also know how in general the Twins are going to operate. They are trying to go out and land big fish, they have achieved that twice now, with Correa and Donaldson. However it didn't work this time. They will not go out of their comfort zone. There is also an aspect that the medicals are causing more problems than initially.

I don't want him, but this management had history with him in Cleveland. If they see value in him, they may take a shot, but he is definitely a bit of a pariah. Anymore just going to sit back and watch, see if they continue to keep me entertained.

I foresee a hard cap and a hard floor coming. You might even find the Yankees and Red Sox leading that charge. When the Padres and Mets continue to outspend it makes it difficult for even the historic big market teams to keep up. Players union will be ok with it because by increasing the floor you will increase the overall dollars going to players.

Papi isn't Papi without going to the Red Sox. The green monster helped him immensely and find the greatness inside him. I don't see that happening on almost any other team. The organization thought they had a system of finding pull hitters and having them use launch angles to hit home runs when they came in. It worked in 2019. Since then it hasn't worked as well. They are becoming more balanced overall in my opinion. However then we go out and pick up the most strike prone pull happy hitter there is. I still think there is value there.

Eh, I really don't see Eovaldi as a needle mover. he strung together 3 good seasons with 1 great season last year. If you remove the 2021 season and the 2019 year best and worst years he is essentially a 1.2 WAR player. Plus you are giving up a draft pick as well. We need to rebuild our farm depth after last year trading a lot away. We have enough pitchers on the staff that can be 1 WAR players while not paying them 17 mil a year.

Here is the thing, the Mets are likely trying to get a short term deal done or an injury clause. However even with all the money in the world, Cohen went with a low AAV high amount of years. Meaning the Twins can likely beat the Mets on an higher AAV/shorter years deal if they want to. Correa will go to whoever pays him. He has shown to have that mercenary mentality, however even last year he did all the right things when he was on the team. I would expect the same thing. Correa wants the big payday, likely concerned about his own health. I guess I am slightly confused on what is the best path. Basically this is the only way the twins can ever get a superstar to sign with them on a long term contract, as we can see they can easily be outbid on any other year. Obviously its a no go if insurance is unwilling to insure the contract unless he goes for a shorter term higher AAV deal. If so the Mets hold all the cards on that front because Cohen can personally afford to pay him and lose him to injury. I am leaning towards a deal with the Twins again. This has already gone 2-3 days, meaning the deal with the Mets will likely fall apart, unless no one else can or will give a long term contract in the 9-10 years range that he wants. I could make a better estimate if we knew what the counter offer from the Mets is. Have they lopped off 75 mil and are in the 250 mil range, are they only in at a 6 year deal at 190 mil? It is hard to say. However only the Twins and the Giants appear to have the money to pull this off and I am fairly certain the Giants won't get involved again with Boras unless they get a very good deal in the situation. Boras drug them through the mud. I would venture the 3 teams consist of the group of (Twins, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Giants).

Wow, so you are no longer done with the management then after not signing Correa the first time around?

Jon Heyman came out last night and said Correa wasn't interested in restructuring the contract with the Mets. Someone close to the situation said a 55% chance the Mets get something worked out. So the question becomes are the Twins willing to offer him a contract again, and at what money and how many years. Do they try to create a contract similar to Buxton's? I don't think Correa would be interested in that. On its face getting Correa for $285 seems like a deal in this market, but when 2 teams pass on him potentially, that doesn't seem like quite the deal. I still think He would give you the value of that contract in the next 6-7 years. The Twins still have the financial flexibility to pull this off. However if the medical risk is big enough that 2 big market teams are unwilling to sign him, should a smaller market team be willing to take on that risk? The Twins are in the unique situation they should have a better idea of what is going on, they will also be able to tell if there was major structural changes in the leg since last years physical. We will see if Correa potential falls into the Twins lap for the 2nd year in a row.

It’s most likely 1 and 3. I think the Twins were comfortable with the risk on a shorter contract, but there is no doubt the condition has deteriorated in the last year and most likely on that slide.

We are talking about a player whose deal just fell through due to medical concerns right? And what would he have accepted if the Mets weren’t a fall back. There is a chance he fails their physical too, but not likely.

Here’s a few . . . 1. I thought Dyson would be a game changer for the bullpen 2. I thought the Twins would sign Correa for around $300 mil. 3. My wife gave me a signed 2006 Twins baseball that had Morneau, Mauer Santana Liriano Nathan and Hunter. At the time I thought there would be at least 3 Hall of Famers and possibly as much as 5.

I didn’t think of it earlier, there is a possibility him and Farmer are a platoon at shortstop. It gives him more opportunities to play next year. I am not sure his defense will hold up, but if he can play adequate defense at even shortstop he could be a very valuable asset down the road.

The Twins will likely win this trade hands down. 1. Pagan I think will be a useful reliever next year. Is August and Sept showed a player that was beginning to figure it out. 2, The procedure Paddack had is a 12 month recovery time was my understanding with a couple months to ramp up. We get a full year and a half control and possibly re sign. 3. If Medina turns into any type of prospect they win. I think Twins win this trade pretty handily, but it was ugly last year.

I think we should have been in full rebuild last year, but that option is now gone. Prospects are prospects but it will be disappointing if 1 of Petty, Hajjar, or Povich become a #1 or #2. Steer and Encarnacion Strand could also become major players in the future. I really liked Steer. Draft pick wise though we really weren't hurt that much because of being able to jump up in the 1st round. Effectively signing Gallo we are either trying to rebuild our farm prospects or trying to maneuver pieces to help this year. I don't think we have enough to go all out this year.

There have been ample examples of players that have had successful careers after not handling the bright lights and even when playoff games and championships.

I can see where he can have a potentially much better season with the Twins. 1. Eliminating the shift increases his BA 10-20 points. He was in the top 6 of shifted player percentages. 2. Go look at his splits, against Central teams last year he had close to 1000 OPS, granted he will not be facing twins pitchers. 3. New York killed his confidence this alone could be worth another 10-20 points. 4. He is an elite fast ball hitter in the low and middle parts of the zone. So pitchers are pitching much less fastballs 40%, and if they do throw a fastball it is up in the zone.Maybe the Twins can help him a bit with this. 5. If the BA is above .200 this contract is a win, if he gets to .220 to .240 he is a top 30 hitter. 6. The only reason this contract made sense is that we are trading Kepler. We can get Kepler production while trading for a prospect. I personally liked it. It has some risk but he walks more than Sano, The risk in the contract is that the shift was never the issue. It is pitchers have made adjustments and he has been unable to.

This will completely switch like it did in the 2000's into the 2010's. The Padres have an estimated Payroll into 2027 of 200 mil already on the books, and they have Juan Soto they will have to deal with in 2 years. They will have 240-250, with essentially no pitching staff signed longterm besides Musgrove. They also may have to give more money to Machado who has an opt out in 2024. What the Mets and Padres is doing is not sustainable. What will occur is new rules, possibly a harder cap, with possibly create a floor. The Padres did make a large offer to Judge and was told MLB would not let that contract go through. However the Bogaerts deal was then allowed. I think MLB knows its got a problem on its hands. However, Boras is doing a hell of a job of finding the available dollars for his clients.

If Turner is going to turn down $30 million extra from the Padres because he wanted to be on the east coast you think it would be smart to waste any time on Turner?? Bogaerts deal is just as crazy as Correa. He is 3 years older, and received a couple years less. His contract was the contract that sent Correa's camp asking for the moon. Its fairly obvious Swanson was the Twins second option to Correa. Even still I agree with you I am not sure I want to spend the money on Swanson that it will take to get a deal done. Basically you think the Twins should have foresaw this market and just signed Correa last year to the 300 million he was asking for. This seems to be bothering you much more than me obviously. However, I think rational thought is going out the door.