Hawkeye Bean Counter

Brock - there were 2 teams in on Correa. You had the Twins at $285, and then the Giants. Boras told Giants $350 was the number they wanted, 65 million higher than the next higher offer. Then used a like on a tweet from the Mets and likely a conversation with them to scare the Giants. What this tells you is the Giants were serious about getting Correa and they were going to sign him hell or high water. As to historical, I am ok with the Twins shooting to try to get superstars signed. We won't get the deal done very often, but I like to see them throw their hat in the ring. It will continue to open up opportunities like Correa last year, even though I think that move set the organization back a year or two personally. This market has caught a lot of people off guard not the Twins. Atlanta is looking stupid now for not getting a deal done with Dansby. He will likely go for double what he was expected to go for at the beginning of the season. Look, I think the Twins could have pivoted slightly earlier. However, there are very few other contracts I would rather have that have already been signed. I am waiting for the silly money and contracts to come back to reality, but there is a possibility this entire offseason is super inflated.

Its merely an example, The site won't let me bring up the information from back in 2008 and 2001. When revenues are down expenditures for following years. This isn't rocket science. Owners and management from 2016 to 2021 had been avoiding the long contracts, then suddenly the last 2 years, these massive contracts with years are popping back up again. As an accountant I think teams have money to spend because of PPP and ERC credits. I think this year is going to be a major outlier for several years. I do think you had a good crop of free agents. The 2021 crop wasn't nearly as good. I think right now the teams are flush with cash, let revenues come down, and salary tax take hold a couple years and I am not so sure we will see the same willingness to do these contracts by Padres, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers. Padres are pretty well locked into their salaries for the next 6-7 years, I don't think they will be able to take on another major contract for the next 3-4 years without shedding payroll. They have difficulty resigning their own free agents. If a few players begin to struggle watch a firesale occur.

In 2021 the highest contract given was 150 million. TOTALS 186 $1,363,676,000 $7,331,591 AVERAGE 1.3 $9,536,196 $7,331,591 PLAYER (143) POS. AGE BATS THROWS FROM TO YRS DOLLARS AVERAGE SALARY George Springer QO CF 31.3 R R HOU TOR 6 $150,000,000 $25,000,000 J.T. Realmuto QO C 29.8 R R PHI PHI 5 $115,500,000 $23,100,000 Trevor Bauer QO SP 30.0 R R CIN LAD 3 $102,000,000 $34,000,000 D.J. LeMahieu QO 2B 32.5 R R NYY NYY 6 $90,000,000 $15,000,000 Marcell Ozuna DH 30.2 R R ATL ATL 4 $65,000,000 $16,250,000 Liam Hendriks RP 31.9 R R OAK CHW 3 $54,000,000 $18,000,000 James McCann C 30.4 R R CHW NYM 4 $40,600,000 $10,150,000 Justin Turner 3B 36.2 R R LAD LAD 2 $34,000,000 $17,000,000 Michael Brantley LF 33.7 L L HOU HOU 2 $32,000,000 $16,000,000 Didi Gregorius 2020 TOTALS 184 $2,042,313,500 $11,099,530 AVERAGE 1.53 $17,019,279 $11,099,530 PLAYER (120) POS. AGE BATS THROWS FROM TO YRS DOLLARS AVERAGE SALARY Gerrit Cole QO SP 29.2 R R HOU NYY 9 $324,000,000 $36,000,000 Anthony Rendon QO 3B 29.5 R R WSH LAA 7 $245,000,000 $35,000,000 Stephen Strasburg QO SP 31.3 R R WSH WSH 7 $245,000,000 $35,000,000 Zack Wheeler QO SP 29.5 L R NYM PHI 5 $118,000,000 $23,600,000 Josh Donaldson QO 3B 34.1 R R ATL MIN 4 $92,000,000 $23,000,000 Hyun-Jin Ryu SP 32.7 R L LAD TOR 4 $80,000,000 $20,000,000 Yasmani Grandal C 31.0 R MIL CHW 4 $73,000,000 $18,250,000 Nick Castellanos DH 27.8 R R CHC CIN 4 $64,000,000 $16,000,000 Mike Moustakas

I can acknowledge it may have been a factor, however I can show you in other instances where salaries went down after major recessions, you can't just say that the Dot Com bubble had no effect on the 2001 to 2003 era. It likely wasn't mutually exclusive all due to the collusion and none due to the current financial conditions.

You asked me for years that salaries went down, I just showed you 3 times that covered 4-5 years in the last 22 years. I am not saying they will, but if we have a recession, its 99% chance that salaries will come down next year.

Yes so you named 4-5 players. None of them game changers but all of them good. Similar to the following players- Swanson, Rodon, Eovaldi, Syndergaard, Conforto, Chapman and Kimbrel. Maybe there is someone else they prefer better. Those all seem to be a similar level as the ones you mentioned wouldn't you agree?

You are also ignoring the financial implications of the Dot Com bubble.

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/sports/baseball/09salaries.html 2009-2011. 2001-2003. Surprise surprise both occurred after a major recession. Also 2021, after Covid. https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/12/16/22831008/mlbs-revenue-sharing-problem-and-how-to-solve-it

No one can state what other prospects they wish the Twins would have rather gone after than Correa? Kind of proves my point.

An opportunity. This forum was ecstatic when we signed Correa last year, why was that its because we had dry powder to take advantage. How about when we signed Donaldson or Cruz. We could also trade for a player with 1-2 years left on his contract and get a prospect or two from a team shedding salary. Brock has stated he doesn't want to pivot and get mediocre players, this year we still have a possibility at Rodon and or Swanson. If we don't get things done yes we can spend the money this year on short term contracts. However, I do think contracts could come back in in the future. Lets say we have a major recession next year that affects the stock market significantly. You still think Seidler and Steven Cohen will be throwing out money willy nilly? I don't. I think you will see contracts with much less years than the contracts signed the last 2 years. I could also see the Padres begin to pivot if they struggle over a year or two and try to shed payroll. Look I like to dabble in the stock market. Sometimes you need to get the best of breed, but for a team like the Twins you have to succeed on finding opportunities possible and pouncing when others are maxed out or fearful. You can also possibly get luck finding some reclamation projects, and hitting on your prospects. That is the name of the game.

When only 4-6 teams have the financial wherewithal to make those contracts, for all the other teams it could be a massive overpay. Free agency currently is not a level playing field. I am also of the opinion to save money for next year, because if there is a major recession, you may not see these owners giving out these crazy contracts like they have been. They also may be willing to shed some of these ridiculous contracts.

How can they better manage an offseason if they will never may able to sign a top tier free agent? That is essentially the definition you have given of a successful season. Which other players and contracts would you rather have, because the majority of them have been major overpays by all the big market teams.

He very clearly thinks its only successful if you sign the players. I still think there is a possibility this offseason could still come out as a success, but I will admit I am disappointed on not getting Correa. I am curious to see what type of contract Swanson and or Correa get and if we are able to get 1 of them. I could see Swanson giving more WAR than Correa over the life of both of their contracts. I have a concern that Correa's back will become a bigger issue in future years. Swanson's bat seems to be getting stronger. He seems similar to me to a player like Dozier. I think Swanson could have a nice 3-4 year set of seasons before beginning to tail off.

Then what do you expect to change. You are going to constantly be disappointed because the end results will vary rarely ever change. Unless this is just you venting frustration I don't know what to say. You have stated we should get different management, while not acknowledging whether we could get better General manager or head coach. You are throwing a pity party. Yes what I was saying was in jest, but come on pull up your big boy pants and lets move on. If you can't reconcile that this is our team we are currently rooting for, then you may be better off not letting it affect you.

Just turn in your Twins fandom card. You can join the bandwagon of the Yankees, Padres Phillies or Astros. This is no different than the last 40 years. Essentially the definition of insanity, expecting different results based off the same set of circumstances. It will be difficult for the Twins to compete for World Series. We need a lot of things to fall into place. However if/when it happens makes it even sweeter.

Yankees trying to maneuver on Rodon. Looks like Yankees will get one of Rodon or Eovaldi.

You are ignoring that the Yankess, Red Sox and and Dodgers would not touch him due to the 2017 cheating scandal. You also have that he has a much more glaring injury history with his back than any other team. We can agree to disagree, Last year a 300 mil offer went for a shortstop, which the offer was not given to Correa. I think if we signed him it would have been in the 300 mil range, but another suitor came forth that wanted him more. It is what is.

The Cubs didn't make an offer on Correa at all. We were the high offer prior to the Giants. You can say someone would have come out of the weeds but you are just speculating. No one came out last year for Correa? Is that correct or not? Although, has we offered 300 million last year, we likely would have signed him. That was the number he was looking for.

I disagree. No other team was willing to spend that on Correa . . . other than the Giants. You only need one team and in this case the Giants increased the bid. Its why I said all along we wanted the Giants to get Judge, because I don't think the Yankees are interested in Correa at all for a variety of reasons.

Its not a reasonable contract Brock. I think if there was an issue in this case is they underestimated Boras and the giants willing to make an outlandish offer. Our only chance at signing him went out the door when the Yankees signed Judge. I am not sure how you can be done with this front office when there are 22 other teams in the same boat as us. If you aren't a New York, Texas, California team or the Cubs or to a certain extent the cardinals it is very difficult to compete in free agency. My other concern is we did a bunch of trades to try to appease Correa. Most of the trades I was OK with, I am still concerned the Mahle trade is going to come back and bite us. We need him to be a strong #2 to a low end #1 to make that trade pay off. I still think this front office has gotten more done than any other previous management team. We have actually signed some high end players, so I am happy with that. I just have no idea where you are going to spend the money this year. Give a high AAV to Syndergaard to try to recoup and trade. With Rodon being a boras agent I think we just need to move on. Then its a question do we go with our prospects or do we sign Dansby. We are in such a better situation than any time in the early 2000's and their draft philosophy looks better as well.

Minnesota put out the first offer. I don't think they have budged. I do think Boras is trying to get them to bid against themselves, I don't think its going to work.

Ashbury, they may be trying to let fans know they have the offer out there. They may start to pressure Boras and Correa and tell them they will take the offer off the table. There is no rumors anyone is offering more right now.

Sounds like Braves gave up #1 prospect Muller.

I think the Twins are putting out an offer that they think Correa is willing to sign. I think there is a possibility they are 25 to 30 million over the current market for Correa right now. Maybe I am wrong, but the Twins are currently the highest offer right now.

The Twins have a contract offer of 285 million for 10 years. This has been reported by a couple people. Based on that information, the Twins have the best offer currently on the table. The only interested party at this point that could be willing to outbid is the Giants. However if they were willing to outbid, I thought they would have done it by now. Boras has a history of going directly to the owners to try to increase the contract, I don't think that will work with the Twins. It could possibly work with the Giants or another team that were to get involved. I think the Twins feel comfortable waiting this out right now. I could see Correa signing a 4 to 6 year contract with opt outs and trying again, but it is fairly clear his past history is limiting the number of teams interested in him. He has stated he prefers a long term contract. When you knock out the Dodgers, Houston, Red Sox and Yankees, and the Padres are willing to get Bogaerts instead of you, that really limits the teams willing to spend big on you. Just think where he would be at if the Twins weren't willing to go big, 225-250mil maybe???