Hawkeye Bean Counter

I stated before, if it is potential arthritis issues, the best option would be a shorter contract, 6-8 years, at $210 to $240 million. In that case the Twins had a much better shot than the Mets as the Mets due to the luxury tax were effectively capped out, its why they went on such a lengthy contract in the first place. That turned out to be fairly close to what was signed. Now its just dotting the I but shouldn't be the concern or issue it was for the Mets or Giants. I think what this shows, is that you have to continue to wait and see what the final product is for the front office. They have shown they are willing to be aggressive and opportunistic, and be any version got the best contract signed this year. Swanson signed a 7 year $177 million contract. We can be happy as Twins fans. This was a good outcome. Hopefully the purse strings will continue to be a little looser in the future.

Ted gets some credit here. Good Job.

3 hours later and this article is severely outdated. Extremely bad timing on the article, but one I am sure we are all happy about.

If they are the third team to pass on Correa, the team would get a free pass. You also are underestimating the fact Correa may not want to come back to the Twins. If thats the case there isn't much the management could do.

I think it would be hilarious if this is the day that Correa signs with the Twins. Effectively this article would go up in smoke.

Ted quoted saying the offer was 9 years $275 million. He removed that. However the Twins have always been willing to do shorter contracts at a higher AAV that I believe the Mets were never able to do. I do believe Correa wants a long term contract as I think he is concerned about his own health. To me 240 mil to 250 mil while stating there will be no mitigating factors from the physical as long as he can pass it seems like a fair deal for 8-9 years. The Twins may not even be interested in insuring the contract.

2 major physicians both came out and stated that specific surgery the biggest risk is arthritis. If the issue is currently not causing issues with a physical but projecting what will be an issue down the road ( those are Boras’s words) and the Mets are wanting to make this effectively a 6-7 year contract I am fairly confident stating this is the most likely issue. As to Correas back issues Correa has to do an intense 90 minute warm up before every game. He missed significant time in both 2018 and 2019. Now if one leg begins to experience pain, any person begins to change their gait to avoid the pain, and next think you know the back is a mess.

If the issue is big enough to impact the ability to get insurance for a contract everything you wrote above is mute. Correa most likely is showing early signs of arthritis. There is very low odds he is able to be playing competitively in 10 years add in his back issues, he has extreme risk tied to him.

Based off this Bowden it seems Mets fans are getting optimistic. It is hard to say at this point. With Correa nothing is done until the signs, personally I thinks he would rather be a met than a twins player and we were merely used as leverage.

As a note Jim Bowden on mlb radio stated Correa would sign a deal with the Mets they were just finalizing details, supposedly this was from someone close to Correa, relative maybe? I think this will be over by Monday night one way or another.

It’s one year 30mil too much if that’s the contract, compared to what he could get elsewhere and with the risk of the ankle. I will be very curious to see if they front load salary and how many opt outs there will be.

If I were to venture a guess, I think this ends in a 6-8 year deal. 210-240 million. The285 mil is off the table and you are going in knowing it is uninsurable. Maybe an opt out after 3 years. The Twins are in the drivers seat now. I don’t see the Giants getting back involved. Cohen just like 3 tweets, 1 saying the Mets were frustrated with the negotiations, 1 they are happy with the players they have, and 1 that says the Mets are in such better hands than the previous owners because he will continue to try to make the team better. It is sure looking like the Mets deal is done.

I think he clears waivers. How many Teams are going to use a 40 man roster spot on a AA pitcher that has over a 4 ERA. Enlow is essentially on the fringe of what the Twins see as their future. They view him as someone they wanted to protect from Rule 5, but now that many rosters have been filling up, there is much less of a risk someone will claim him. He is the twins #20 prospect and is 2-3 years away.

They will have a full year of Maeda, Mahle and Lopez. Miranda will be older. We have 2-3 young hitters that we will see if they can finally be healthy. You have Ober and Winder, who we won't need to put as much innings demands on them to try to keep them healthy. We may be able to trade Kepler. This team has much much more quality and experienced pitching depth than at this time last year. You also have Paddack that may be able to help on the backside. What will be interesting is what version of Pagan do we get, late August Sept, or the rest of the year or is he also a trade chip. This will be a better team, especially if they can sign Correa, not necessarily that they will be able to make the playoffs, but I am good with solid ball and finding key cogs we can build around in the future.

Just wait, if we sign Correa many of these same people will have a new argument against the Twins front office :). What is the writers stance if they sign Correa at what is considered a reasonable contract? Suddenly the Twins Front office is brilliant, waited it out and got one of the best players to potentially one of the best contracts this year? Things move quickly in baseball, including Correa potentially getting hurt and essentially be done with baseball in a couple years. That is the risk assessment the front office needs to take. I'll sit back and see if the Twins get 2nd opportunity at the Correa apple.

This is coming to a resolution fairly quickly. Likely the mets and this is just posturing to get over the final leg, or a shorter deal with more guaranteed money than what the mets are offering currently will get it done. If it doesn't get resolved by monday will likely see him pivot to the Twins.

I'm not so sure. The risk in the insurance is likely primarily in years 8-12. So on a 8-9 year contract the insurance agents may be willing to take on the risk, especially if structured in such a way where more of the contract is front loaded vs later in the contract. Its becoming fairly clear the Mets are unwilling or unable to add more salary to the next few years.

I disagree, for the man with all the money he needed a 12 year deal to sign him, why to lower the AAV and reduce the tax burden. With the additional tax what is potentially 7-8 million more for a year for a shorter contract, is 14 to 15 mil with the luxury tax for the Mets.

Boras and Correa want the best deal period. I do think Correa would prefer being in a big market (Dior anyone?). I also believe Cohen wants him, The issue is the years and insurance, and my belief that as rich as Cohen is, he is tapped out on Salary for the next couple years. If clauses have the potential to wipe out the last 4-5 years of the deal, this is really a 200 million offer. At that point a higher AAV deal with shorter amount of years makes sense and I think the Twins would play in that playground. Odds are both sides give a little and Correa officially becomes a Met, however I am ready for the next chapter of this Soap opera.

Palacios will be a decent backup in the MLB from my viewpoint. Twins were getting in a bit a roster crunch and left him open to be claimed.

2 of 3 are bad, but the 1 has the potential of giving us a #1 starter that we haven't legitimately had since Santana and Liriano. I am fine with them leaving at the reliever position, he did really well in that role last year, but damn would it be amazing if he could become an ace.

Duran, quickly goes to #1 or #2 if they move him back to a starter and he is able to dominate. RP may be his best spot, but I think it may be a disservice to the organization to not try him as a starter, as he has the stuff to potentially be a #1.

The pitching pipeline is finally starting to hit and will begin to help the Twins. Pipeline - Pitchers acquired or drafted Currently on MLB SP Ryan, Ober, Winder RP Duran, Alcala (both acquired before new management came on) AAA Pitchers considered prospects SP Varland, SWR, Balazovic RP Canterino, Henriquez AA (estimated level) SP Headrick, Raya Mooney and Festa RP Cruz A, A+ SP Priellip, Medina Nowlin (any drafted prospects that develop) We had a strong core of pitching drafted in 2021 that was drafted away for current pitching. There is a possibility this pipeline is further increased with trades at the deadline. MLB level Ober and Winder all come down to health. They may be better suited for the bullpen. Alcala can be an elite pitcher in the bullpen if he regains his health. Both Varland and SWR look like durable pitchers that have the stuff to at least be #3 pitchers, possibly #2. I see very little possibility of either flaming out. Both should their stuff was good enough for the MLB level at the end of last year. Right now both Balazovic and Canterino are wild cards in my mind. If I were to guess 1 will get their stuff and health figured out and regain their prospect status and become a main cog in the future as to who that is I am not sure. I am actually optimistic about the pipeline. However I am generally a glass half full guy. I think the biggest thing that appears to be lacking is a #1 pitcher in the pipeline. We have one player in the MLB who could be that guy and it is Duran. His stuff is elite. I think they will likely leave him as our high usage reliever. That leaves the prospects and the only individual who has the potential stuff that I see is potentially Priellip. However I think that is not likely. Maybe a Varland or SWR could outperform their stuff similar to many of the Guardians pitchers. Our best chance at a future #1 comes in the 2023 draft with the #5 draft pick. We can likely pick the #2 best pitching prospect in what is considered one of the best pitching drafts in the last decade. The 2019-2022 drafts were all considered poor for pitching prospects. In that aspect, the pitchers that the Twins have found is actually pretty good considering the circumstances. I do have to acknowledge we did send away our best chance at #1 pitcher to acquire Gray. We can potentially get a SP prospect at the trade deadline for him, but likely no one to the level of Petty (we will see if Petty pans out).

It is a nice trade, but now you bring up something that is interesting, and that is teams trying to find players that will do well within the new rules and that is someone like Ruiz. Ruiz has now been part of 2 trades for the Brewers, 1 that was trading away Hader which was viewed as one of the worst trades in franchise history and then the 3 way trade which you state is highway robbery. With Ruiz being a key piece in both deals I think ultimately in retrospect we can say he has more value for MLB teams than the casual fan thinks. Teams see him having a lot of value with his bat and stealing bases.

You had 4 teams take over free agency this year, there isn’t much difference that could have happened this year. It’s a lot easier to be an arm chair quarterback than actually be in the middle of it with the current dynamics. Even still this is the most depth we have had on the pitching front in over a decade. Some will be coming back from rehab. We have some decent prospects coming up. For example let’s look at Milwaukee, other than a very nice trade they have done nothing in free agency. We could go down the list. it’s not to say they are perfect. I am going to do some research on pitching. I believe there has been very few pitching prospects since 2017 that have done anything in the MLB and most likely due to overall a poor prospect pool most likely won’t do much. This comes down to can they develop a #1 pitcher. They have proven they can develop #3 #4 type pitchers from the poor prospect pool, let’s see what comes from better prospects like Priellip.