Hawkeye Bean Counter

Priellip is far from a lotto ticket. However, he had limited innings success and basically 2 years of not competing. He looks like a #1 or #2 from the left side. We still have to wait and see what he looks like in getting the rust off, however I really think this is going to pay off, and was the reason the twins were willing to trade off our 2 lefty prospects from the 2021 draft.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10058936-twins-trade-rumors-max-kepler-drawing-a-lot-of-interest-after-joey-gallo-contract The issue is there is too much smoke here. It sure looks like they are willing to trade on their terms.

We have a redundancy in right field with both Kepler and Gallo. I suppose you could flip one to left field, but then there really isn't a spot for Larnach. With that said there have been lots of rumors about trading Kepler and I expect that to be the last big move other than possibly signing another reliever. Starting pitching looks deep, so likely not an area we would add. So the question is do we get prospects or do we trade for a reliever. Do we just hold off, and deal with the logjam in the outfield - or dfa celestino and/or larnach. Some interesting decisions coming up.

So we give up Evan Sisk and Cruz but will have possibly added Alexy, Ortega and able to retain Enlow. We gained some lottery arms and gave up a couple and gained an excellent defensive RH OF. The twins keep improving on the margins. I’m still waiting for them to pull the trigger on Kepler. I don’t think the Twins could have a drawn up a much better off-season.

Umm . . . We are creating more of a pipeline, but also realized we used 3 of our better pitching prospects from the 21 draft class to get the current pitchers we have. I personally like it. We can utilize them for now, and worst case flip them for an awfully good prospect at the deadline. We have never said before we have too much pitching. We can now let these pitchers develop in AAA rather than sending them to the wolves. We have a couple projects in AAA this year we have picked up off the scrap heap I am happy about. For long term Pitchers we have Joe as #1. Then I personal think Varland will be the next best pitcher of the next group. I hope 1 of Ober/Winder can stay healthy enough to be a quality pitcher. Personally that is a pretty good pipeline. Add in SWR, Priellip, Raya, Festa and Balazovic, I think the starting pitcher pipeline will be ok.

This is a great position for the Twins to be in. Miranda gets another year to show us what he can do at the MLB level, and 2 is we can get a better baseline of what Lee can do at the pro level by seasoning in AA and AAA. We have seen players hit a wall at AA or AAA - however, Lee who has a very good IQ and work ethic will most likely do fine. he is a high floor, medium to high ceiling. He will likely not be a superstar, but a very very good foundational piece. We are set to continually have a very good infield for the foreseeable future.

I have no concerns with Arreaz wanting a bigger contract and getting paid what he feels he is worth. Even still this is a very good trade possibly great trade. If López is a #2 pitcher for us for the next two years it is worth trading Arreaz along with the two prospects. I expect Arreaz to regress with being in a stronger division. A .290 -.300 average hitter is still good but with no power it is not worth López potential. Arreaz was a great Twin and I hope he proves me wrong and gets the payday he deserves.

Julien may make an immediate jump to the big leagues otherwise I see him up in short order and likely in the top of the order or in the 9 spot due to his OBP and steals. Martin obviously has more refinement to do, but fall league shows what he can do when he can remain healthy and not get dinged up (which I might add he did get dinged up and tailed off a bit). The other high OBP player would be Brooks Lee that could have an impact on this season, but I think he has one more year of seasoning in AA and AAA. Injuries and underperformance will determine this outcome, and I would still not be surprised if Kepler is traded. What I do know is the Twins will only trade him if they think they are getting a surplus on the trade. The next few seasons comes down to Buxton, the homeruns are nice, but I want to see more contact. As a table setter he is much more valuable like he was in the 2021 season with an OBP of 360 than near 300 last year. I guess the most realistic hope is he is around 330 to 340. Then add in correa in the 2 spot and you are pretty well set. If you can plug in a Martin, Julien or Lee in the 2 spot, then you have a very good top of the lineup. Personally I never want to see Buxton steal again (which sounds utterly ridiculous with the new rules) however go look back at his injuries, a good chunk of them come when he has been stealing bases. Our mashers for this year and future years comes down to the develop of Miranda, Larnach and Kiriloff. We need 2 of the 3 to pan out. If they do, or if all 3 can become 20+ home run guys, then this is a very dangerous lineup. I think Vasquez will be steady. The wildcards are Kepler and Gallo. Will the banning of the shift improve their batting average? Will teams just figure out different ways to employ a shift (move the left or right fielder around and completely opening up 1 side of the outfield? I think the ban will open up more of the pull side field. I think this will also give more confidence to the players. I think they tend to try to get to far under the ball to hit the home run which is also causing more pop up outs. I don't foresee us getting the 40 home run Gallo but I could see a 35 home run Gallo. I think the offense will be noticeably more consistent and better than last year. Add in the much improved starting pitching and more established bullpen, I really like where the Twins organization is going. I think we are on the road, to consistently solid performance in the next 5-10 years.

I keep thinking back to Moneyball, Do we care about batting average . . . no they get on base. Arreaz gets on base .380 of the time. There is an aspect of being able to move players on the basepaths, but the issue with Arreaz is with the shift he will be the worst defensive 2nd baseman in the league. He then will be clogging up 1st base or DH at bats. You need some power from 1st and DH and arreaz just cannot do that. Getting back to moneyball, we have a player that can easily replace Arreaz in the next year or two. It is Edouard Julien. In AA his OBP is .440. he gives about the same quality of defense, maybe slightly more range than Arreaz. So effectively what I am saying is we have players coming up that are effectively duplicates of Arreaz value, they just get there differently and will likely be able to man 2nd base unlike Arreaz. To then be able to get a #3 pitcher (with 2 years of control) for Arreaz (4 years of control) is a steal in my mind. Add in you Salas who is currently our #13 prospect and then a lottery pick. Other than the personal love for Arreaz I just don't understand those being upset with the trade. Arreaz had a .385 batting average in 140 at bats against the White Sox and Kansas City. That means a 1/4 of his at bats occurred against what was weak pitching (for white sox primarily occurred against replacement pitchers last year). The only team with semi weak pitchers in the NL East is Washington but they were much better than Kansas City. Essentially I am saying he had inflated stats. Arreaz will have to be a 10% better player next year just to maintain the stats he had for the Twins is my opinion and I don't think he will be able to do that. If he is a .290 hitter with no power then almost all of the value of Arreaz is gone. We can love the player yet at the same time know that this was a very very good deal for the Twins.

Thats disappointing

Does the blackout still affect the streaming service. I am in Iowa so would love to have this as an option.

Enlow and Ortega both passed on waivers. So effectively we now have 3 lottery arm type pitchers in Alexy, Enlow and Ortega. Hopefully one of them can take the jump up.

If the Twins offered it, it tells me a couple things, this new surgery method is looking pretty good and they are confident in it. 2. They like Paddacks talent. I actually thought his fastball primarily sitting at around 93 was lower than what I was expecting from him in the early spring. Maybe that increases a tad after the surgery. I think the Twins were also able to get a little more consistency to make him a better pitcher in the few starts we saw him than when he was with the Padres. I have a feeling people are going to be pretty happy about that trade at the end of the day.

I will take a different opinion, Correa didn’t save the off-season. This board was going through the bottom dregs only a week ago. The statements were numerous . One signing does not take us to euphoria. What it is and what it does is he following, you have to be able to spend money and have at minimum 2 stars you have on long term contracts to supplement with young players and the proverbial role players. We were able to lock in the star and spend the money on what appears to be a reasonable contract. We still need a lot more things to fall into place and finding a #1 SP is the major piece we are still looking for, No one will know if this was a good contract for at least 3-4 years. I am always one looks more at the long game than letting emotion overcome the current circumstances. At the same token I am generally optimistic and expected from the beginning for Correa to resign with us and as things were going sideways posted my reasoning why I thought the Twins would come out on top with a 6 for 210 mil contract as my base case.

I actually agree that Torri has a shot, at the hall and will be more revered by his peers. To me he was just a tad light on the counting stats. I think if he gets over 2500 hits, slightly more homers, and over 200 steals, he is viewed as basically a shoe in with his defense. If he pushed to 400 home runs he is a 1st ballot hall of famer. I think he should be in, I think compared to his peers he comes in a tad light for the writers.

Mets can’t afford the deal, I know it seems odd to say but with the luxury tax the Mets were already at a pain point. As to Giants they had already pivoted plus likely had a bad taste in their mouth.

Two weeks later this thread comes full circle.

The Twins are still looking for that #1 pitcher . . . Bauer in glimpses has been that pitcher. However with the baggage, with being a poor teammate I just don’t see the need to take the chance. I am generally willing to give 2nd chances. Bauer has been given multiple opportunities to mature, and just hasn’t shown the ability to do that. The Twins need to take risks to be competitive, this isn’t one they should take.

Its 2 issues, either concerns the plate will need to be replaced in 5-10 years, or the more likely outcome, there is signs of arthritis already beginning to show on the MRI that would potentially limit his ability several years down the road. I would say the most likely outcome isn't the concern in 1 year or 3 years. The concern starts creeping up around that 6-8 year window, hence only being guaranteed 6 years by the Mets and only receiving 6 years from the Twins. A couple doctors came out earlier and said if he was able to pass physicals, then the plate was likely holding up well, the concern with the surgery is then arthritis and especially with an athlete, that would be putting extreme stress on the joint and ankle it would like become an issue down the road.

Lets be realistic here, Correa and Boras is all about finding the most money they could get. Correa is a total profession so I have no concerns he will have a bad attitude in future years. Yes this didn't work out like he wanted, and the Twins were a fallback option, but he fits in well with the Twins. Lewis and Lee both become either fall back options of Correa's health doesn't hold up, trade chips or moved to other positions. It creates more flexibility for what the Twins want to achieve in the future. This deal works well for all parties.

I agree with what you posted. What I want to show is whether it was Correa or someone else in 2 years, they are willing to sign a good player at what they view is a reasonable contract. Some odd things occurred to allow this contract to happen. This is definitely not an I told you so situation, its a situation that shows this front office has a bit of credibility and is beginning to play in the deeper waters a bit (not to quote Boras). For the Twins to be competitive they need to hit on prospects and do deals like this. Its a good day to be a Twin.

I have wanted to say this all offseason. The Twins decided to shop at Target rather than Dior but it all worked out.

You have to add in his salary from last year as well. So $235 mill and he gets the $305 million over contract with Twins if he is top 5 in MVP or silver slugger. My guess is he has a pretty good chance at achieving that in 1 year out of the next 5 years.

The Mets were down to guaranteeing only $157 mil

Looks like I will get to take #2 off the list and cheaper than what I had originally guessed.