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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Pitching Staff out of Spring Training: Mahle - López - Ryan - Gray - Ober Use Ober’s healthy innings in Mpls. instead of St Paul early in the season. Get Maeda ready and stretched out from the Pen, throwing 1.3 - 2.0 innings at a time a couple times per week. Then 3-4 starts in July if it’s best to move him from Pen. He could stay in Pen if everyone is happy with his effectiveness. Winder/Varland/ SWR are all options for August & September. Maeda - Duran - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Megill - FA…Moore/Hand - J. López Alcala - Winder - in the wings…….Pagan drops in for the Moore/Hand spot if we don’t sign anyone.
  2. JD-TWINS
    “Please….. “ correct!! ……..all I have to say is Nick Gordon, last roster spot - Seriously?? Did anyone watch the 2022 season? Played OF for first time in his career in ‘22. Gained 25 lbs & healthy (solved intestinal issue) for first time in his pro career in ‘22. Started 20% of games in CF. 40% of games in LF……..good speed - decent arm - needs reps/experience. Gordon is now an outfielder unless there’s an emergency injury. Farmer is an infielder already slated to start 105-110 games at 3B - SS - 2B. 405 AB’s - 28 doubles! .272 BA - 50 RBI batting 6th or lower in line-up Also, played games at 2B when we had no other choice. HEALTHY & getting stronger! We (fans) think he’s our 2nd best outfielder in ‘22 but when we factor in “availability” he may be considered our best. #2 going forward. 2023: 80 games in LF - 50 games in CF ……ALL against RH pitching. 130 starts projects to 550 AB’s……similar BA of .270 against all RH pitching - 70 RBI - 38 doubles - 12 HR……..26th roster spot because we can’t send him to St Paul anymore???? Taylor can’t play in front of Gordon in CF v. RH pitching! Way too big of an offensive hit to take. Taylor is around to start against 30 LH pitchers - to pinch hit - to pinch run - to play OF in late innings as needed. INSURANCE if something goes sideways with health. Larnach needs to be healthy & rip the cover off the ball in Spring Training to nab the 26th spot……in my opinion. Hope it happens!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Julien sounds like a truly valuable prospect. However, with Lee - Lewis - Martin coming hard in 2023 or ‘24, it seems that his only path to the majors is through 1B. If he can’t beat out Kirilof at 1B or Larnach at DH, there’s little chance they will have a spot for him medium - Long term.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Hope for his sake he holds up again this year!! Nice story & glad he got some pay-off! He’s a big piece for our Pen in ‘23
  5. JD-TWINS
    Go back to the mid-60’s over 4-5 differing years with that staff and add Dave Boswell - Dean Chance - & HOF Jim Kaat. We have not had this much starting depth/talent that I can recall since. Santana & Liriano (prior to injury) with maybe Radke? Not 5 guys. We don’t have the Viola or Santana or Blyleven on this staff but we have 4-5 Scott Erickson’s.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I’d really like Ober to be our 5th starter through June-July. Use his healthy innings in the SHOW & not St Paul…………transitioning to one of Varland/SWR/Maeda. Maeda in the Pen for first half works him back slowly and gives us a key middle innings, long guy, a couple times per week. Matt Moore is out there & so is Brad Hand……one FA pick up please. Maeda - Moore - Megill - Moran - Jax - López - Thielbar - Duran………good mix of veterans & youth……….good mix of right & left. Alcala & a couple others in St. Paul Move Pagán by end of Spring Training.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Lopez has 4.5 years of not good and .5 years of really good. Got my fingers crossed, but to me he’s a half step behind Pagan heading out the door.
  8. JD-TWINS
    In the interest of winning vs. listing the guys in order of “best stuff”, I think we want a blended approach on how to line them up 1-5. I don’t see any real large separation in our starters relative to stuff. Assuming the #1 goes in that spot against the opposition’s #1 I would arrange as follows to try & produce most wins: Mahle - López - Ryan - Gray - Ober/Maeda Mahle can be very good or he can struggle to keep a team under 5 runs due to abnormal amounts of walks & HRs. He can match up as a #1 if he is “on”………(any of our top 4 can honestly) Ryan - Gray - Ober were often #1 - #3 last year and they were effective & had positive win totals………I think they can dominate the opposition’s #3 - #5 starters…….Maeda to pick up from Ober in later July. Here’s to good health!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Cris E., above, says Larnach has played 1 game at first base in college and minor leagues combined………….. Not sure who is right? Does seem if he played “a great first base in college” he’d be getting some buzz and would be the obvious choice to replace Kirilof!
  10. JD-TWINS
    CANNOT start Taylor v. RH pitching………(not unless guys are hurt!) Against RH pitching - 80% of the games, order of depth: Gordon/Gallo/Larnach - Buxton/Gordon/Taylor - Kepler/Gallo/Taylor I see Buxton starting 80 games in CF if he can hold it together……..50 games at DH. When Buxton is resting or DH v. RH pitching, Gordon plays CF - 50 games………vs. LH pitching Taylor is in CF - 30 games. I look forward to Gallo - Gordon - Kepler in the OF & at the plate v. RH pitching. Larnach - Taylor - Kepler v. LH pitching with Buxton at DH.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Gallo would be the first choice at 1B in ‘23 if Kirilof can’t play (v. RH pitching) ……..Larnach may get some reps through the year. We have plenty of OF depth to allow Gallo to man first base.
  12. JD-TWINS
    “……in case the Catcher gets injured…” …that’s what my comment about having a catcher sitting with the Manager, just in case…….means. I don’t see us, in any one game, starting Vazquez & Jeffers together because nobody in the organization, especially Farmer, wants to see Farmer catching. It’s Russian Roulette with our needed Utility guy. Maybe, a possibility in the 8th or 9th as a pinch hitter to win the game we could see them expose this type of situation with Jeffers or Vazquez? Bad outfield is defensible????? Six guys penciled on roster now. 3 former Gold Gloves - plus the guy most people thought would win Gold Glove in RF last year if he didn’t finish the year hurt. Gordon is a guy you defend against this group of 4. Other guy is Larnach - many Twins followers think he’s a #3 hitter if healthy. ……………… Balance of my defense: Gallo is hit & miss offensively & even with a GG difficult to defend/be too excited about, granted………potential 32 HR power Taylor is a GG platoon against lefties and a late inning pinch runner - pinch hitter against lefties - defensive replacement if needed. Buxton doesn’t hold up health wise but he contributes when he plays - Gordon & Taylor letting him sit half the games should help his availability. Kepler will hit 10 HR - 25 doubles & play exceptionally well in RF & will hopefully get his BA to .255 plus & thus RBI up. He may not start enough to get 25 doubles but if he gets 125 starts these numbers are gettable. Can’t imagine there’s 5 other groups in the game that can compare in depth - power - defense. We’re 6 deep defensively with 2 potential mashers & 3 other potential doubles machines.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Offense is needed on all MLB clubs. We’re gonna role with a switch hitting, powerful former starting SS at 2B. At SS one of the year’s most coveted Free Agents. At 1B a potential offensive All-Star. As our Utility back-up and star against LH pitching, another former starting SS in the SHOW. At 3B a probable .270 - 22HR - 80 RBI guy. SOLID catcher with a .274 career BA. Going to have to live with the defensive infield that can provide RUNS!!! Not many perfect clubs out there……..
  14. JD-TWINS
    Appreciate the depth comments & the detailing of each guy’s contribution capabilities. My opinion, I still think Gordon & Larnach combine for 170 starts in the OF for offensive punch in the line-up. That’s Buxton 80 - Taylor 40 - Kepler 110 - Gallo 80 ……Buxton DH 50 games & Gallo at 1B 20 games & 20 games at DH. We have 6 OF in the 26 man mix with a healthy Kirilof being another option. There’s been mention of Farmer in a corner OF spot at some point as well. All good - but please quit discussing Gilberto Celestino like he’s got a probable or even a potential spot in our outfield in ‘23!!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Good information! Encouraging. Kirk Gibson, having been a cross-over football player, probably had some more thickness/strength in his forearms & wrists than Kirilof. Still an encouraging comparison. In my mind our first base production has been an afterthought but somebody that can hit will end up there. If we can get 30 starts there v. LH pitching from Miranda, 20 random starts from Gallo, to sharpen him there for an “if needed” situation in the fall, and 110 starts from a productive Kirilof - we’re laughing!! I realize we are not playing all the Central Division teams as much as in the past and the line-up vs. opponents in general is what matters. However, I saw a Central Division All-Star Team by position last week - we had 4 starters of 8 spots from the everyday line-up’s. CF - RF - SS - C ………the guy from Cleveland was starting at 1B - weak choice but nobody else to choose. Kirilof could make a spot for himself there with an average season for him of .280/.325/.420. Our depth is unquestionably the best in the Division! Cleveland’s 2B - 3B - LF are all very good! If we have 5 of the best 8 players by position & the deepest bench in our Division so we should be OK in the W-L area.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Maybe, it’s a stretch though to not have a catcher sitting with the Manager, just in case, the whole game. A team doesn’t strengthen its D by signing Farmer - Taylor - Gallo to solidify Defense & then play Farmer at Catcher because he’s caught a handful of times in the SHOW.
  18. JD-TWINS
    .272 in 405 AB’s…..28 doubles in ‘22. Overlooked is that he gained 25 lb in ‘22 & was healthy for first time in pro career. First year ever playing OF. With guys we have coming up, he’s done in the infield for good! Maybe, if Kirilof washes out, he may get a shot at 1B in ‘24? If he gets 550 AB’s between 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF……….essentially all games v. RH pitching his numbers project to: 12 HR……..38 doubles……. ..270 BA ……..70 RBI -to me, if Kirilof was projected to have those numbers, he’d be in the line-up every day. Gordon has to get an opportunity in the OF regularly - not unlike ‘22.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Vs. LH pitching: Larnach in LF best LH splits - Taylor in CF - Gallo in RF (pretty sure he’s more neutral against LH than Kepler - not sure? One or the other playing right & batting 9th) Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Farmer 3B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Larnach LF - Gallo RF (Taylor - Farmer - Jeffers all need to play v. LH pitching every time) BENCH: Gordon, Kepler, Vazquez, Kirilof
  20. JD-TWINS
    Polanco at 1B in’24 may be worth a look if Kirilof is washed. In ‘23 I think that Gallo is the innings eater at 1B if Kirilof can’t go……obviously, Miranda is at first base if there’s a LH pitcher. Nick Gordon should be in LF or in CF for RH starters……..along with Gallo & Kepler. LH starters & Taylor plays CF ……Larnach in LF & Kepler in RF Buxton v. RH pitchers sits 30 games………DH v. LH pitchers 30 games & DH 20 games vs RH starters……..CF other 80 games
  21. JD-TWINS
    Agreed!! Gordon in LF 80 games - CF 50 games. Larnach in LF 50 games - DH 80 games Buxton in CF 80 games - DH 50 games Kepler in RF 110 games Gallo in RF - 50 games - LF 30 games - 1B 20 games - Gallo DH 20 games Farmer at 3B to rest Miranda 25 games…..at 3B against LH pitching, another 30 games while Miranda starts at 1B - 2B to rest Polanco for 25 games - SS to rest Correa. That’s 105 starts without any injuries. Miranda at 3B 100 games - at 1B 30 games Farmer v. LH pitching is very solid! Gordon v. RH pitching is also solid! As stated above, Gordon is now an outfielder & Farmer an infielder.
  22. JD-TWINS
    The Bomba Squad deserves respect! Every other team was hitting a juiced baseball in ‘19. Vs historical teams, because of the enhanced ball, they are somewhat over rated. Fun to watch with what I recall was a roster of 7-8 guys with 20 HR…….4 guys with 30 HR. Don’t think 1 year signings are detrimental. You use them to plug holes as needed. Twins are good shape this year with depth! However, if Gallo plays to his top end, & we want to, we can sign him for another year………….short term may cost up to $16 million but the year to year is worthwhile in this case. Signing Gray to a one year extension with some mutual options for ‘25 isn’t a bad thought. Same with Maeda! Again, shorter term deals may cost more per year but we aren’t signing anchors if we sign guys a year at a time.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Ted - agreed on the depth angle! Read comments from a bunch of detractors & everyone can have their own opinion. However, worrying about health (as if it only means something in Minnesota) like it’s almost a certain negative is old. Obviously, every sports team from 3rd grade Y ball, to NHL, to Vikings, etc. worry about their key players staying healthy. Your point, well made, is that we are more prepared from Buxton/Correa - Gray/Maeda to handle injuries with depth all the way through the St Paul roster. So we have better depth & should expect at least slightly better fortune than in ‘22. With that said, can we get off the Manager’s back before Spring Training even starts? “The FO has to go……..” is another old attitude. There are no perfect rosters - there are no perfectly executed plans - there’s gathering guys together and hoping/expecting them to play toward the higher level of their capabilities. You can’t screw that up by taking a pitcher out after 5 1/3 …….,,the players get hits - they score runs. - they get outs. Management puts a group of decent players out there and the players need to stay healthy & perform!
  24. JD-TWINS
    The results and resilience to date are encouraging! Law from The Athletic (neutral Point of View) describes him as a probable “reliever stuff” guy. Stuff is stuff & it’s possible his good results to date are due to not seeing same guys a lot and his unique delivery. At MLB level, usually good stuff wins out & unique mechanics may work in short spots? We’ll find out with a probable first 3 months in St Paul - hoping for continued success! He could be our long reliever in 2nd half of ‘23?
  25. JD-TWINS
    In ‘22 it seems to me Ryan was typically facing the opponents #1. Maybe this changed up over the year due to various details? Regardless of how he pitched against differing levels of talent, he won 13 games in his Rookie Year! If he settles in at #3 starter going forward, that’s great. His ERA in ‘22 suggests he’s a #3, at a minimum, going forward. ’24 starting rotation: Lopez - Ober - Ryan - Paddack - Varland…….at least 5 guys with potential!
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