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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Seems unlikely the Astros would trade a helpful piece to the team they just faced in the playoffs & as unlikely the Twins would trade someone of value to Houston - right?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Brewers are adverse to spending, particularly in ‘24, per reports of a handful of core players available in trade. List starts with Burnes & goes through most everyone on the roster that’s paid much more than the minimum. Polanco’s salary won’t play there. They may accept him in trade to then flip him for prospects from elsewhere? Gordon hit .272 in ‘22 with 9 HR & 28 doubles. Started slow, very slow in ‘23 & soon after showing 2-3 weeks of some normalcy he broke his leg & was out for balance of the year. He would have played a minimum of 80 games in CF last year against RH pitching. In ‘22 (Buxton was an All-Star) he was in CF 40 plus starts. His .743 OPS over 405 AB’s & .272 BA with 28 doubles trumps any of the maybe options the Brewers have. Castro showed he has no problems with the position with decent range, good speed, & a great arm. He hit .257 over 358 AB’s with 32 XBH & 33 stolen bases with a .750 OPS. These guys are inexpensive, and have all the ability needed to cover CF, particularly with Austin Martin as another option (don’t forget Byron for 10-20% of the starts) by June/July. To me the guys from the Brewers off little if anything over Martin at this point in their histories. Trade Polanco (to flip for prospects) - Sands - E. Rodriguez - AA prospect to the Brewers for 2 years of Devin Williams at $6.25M. This would be helpful to both Team’s short-term goals. Keeping Farmer as the best alternative ($6.5M v. Polanco’s $10.5M) for depth at all 3 glove positions in the infield minimizes the need for Castro or Gordon to be saved for Utility work.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Trading for a healthy Devin Williams for 2 years of control - an 8th or 9th inning guy, 2-time All-Star, $6.25M in ‘24…….our Pen would be elite & Varland go be #5 or # 6 in rotation for solid depth. Can’t imagine a better use of a Top prospect (Rodriguez) plus Polanco (to flip for prospects) - Sands. Certainly, one of the dozen!
  4. JD-TWINS
    We have lots of infield depth - however, in the Show we have a leaking Buxton - Wallner - Castro & 40 man guys in Larnach & a couple converted infielders in Gordon - Martin………..Kepler remaining with the club sure seems to help with depth at this point. After May, and a firm feel for Gordon & Larnach & Martin’s offense for ‘24, a much better feel for Buxton’s health, then considering moving Max could make some sense toward the deadline.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Can’t get Froemming’s video past the first 45 seconds - keeps cutting to Matt. Matt’s discussion is trading infield depth for a middle level reliever with lots of control & upside. I like the idea and am not opposed to trading Kyle Farmer for an arm - careful for what you take for granted though! Matt says “Farmer kinda filled the roll we got him for……”. His career BA is .255 and he hit .255. He played all 3 glove spots in the infield as well or better than the guys that typically started in front of him. No doubt better than Lewis & Julien defensively. Also, finished ahead of Polanco at 2B metrics in ‘23. Other than being forced off the active roster for about a month due to getting HBPB in the face, he was available every day! I invest in our Pen to make it immediately elite! Trade a package like Polanco - Gordon - Rodriguez - Sands (assuming they would flip Polanco for prospects) to the Brewers for Devin Williams. He’s affordable at $6.25M currently (trading $10.5M salary in Polanco) and he’s got 2 years left of control. Our time to win is NOW! Varland is displaced from Pen by somebody better - he becomes our 5th/6th starter and our Pen is better. Team payroll is at $110M after this deal - spend up to $14-$15M on a FA starter. Lee - Julien - Lewis - CC - Farmer - Castro - Martin have our infield glove needs more than covered.
  6. JD-TWINS
    The Tennessee connection to Martin seems strong. He hurt his arm, unfortunate, the Twins didn’t. He’ll get a shot by June/July this summer & maybe sooner if he shines. The organization wants performance on the big club, period. There’s no giving players opportunities to see how it works out - there is need to promote because of a VOID in the roster or because a player’s PERFORMANCE at AAA warrants he be moved up. Sorry to be using only Martin as the example. I’m tired of the lack of respect guys that are performing in The Show get and the constant need for people here in TD wanting to see how “youth might work out”. Guys that are over 28 don’t need to be recycled somewhere other than on the Twins roster. Castro - Solano - Taylor - Farmer held the club together last year and then the appropriate injection of Julien - Wallner - Lewis built a tremendous momentum! Saying Martin should be traded to be fair to him after 1.5 healthy years in our system, so that he can have a chance, seems dramatic. I fully expect him to be playing regularly for the Big Club by mid-season if he hits anywhere near what he did over his last 40 games in St Paul in ‘23. He is team’s insurance in CF when Buxton crumbles or it’s deemed he can only play there once a week. If Gordon gets traded - a real possibility, he may make the team right out of Spring Training. Expect him to be regular contributor by the deadline.
  7. JD-TWINS
    That’s a lot of information about the Dodgers! My assumption was that they were good in RF after they re-signed J. Heyward? I think Milwaukee or any club will trade whoever to whoever based on the deal offered. Blockbuster trades are media and fan driven terms that I don’t think organizations really consider. I don’t really care who we trade out of our minor league group, other than Lee or Jenkins. I’m not going to propose I know who the Brewers may want, specifically. For 2 years of Williams, I’d consider keeping Polanco and trading Julien with a prospect (no longer Rodriguez) and a pitcher with some upside potential like Winder. Winder provides a Pen option that’s cheap for years and Julien is a very valuable piece to satisfy their 2B issues…….seems to me I saw they may have picked up a 2B and were moving Turang to SS…..this still leaves an offensive hole in their line-up though. If the offer is attractive enough - and the Twins understand Milwaukee’s roster/organization -Twins can make an attractive offer……..may not fly but worthwhile to discuss.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick are competent guys to get through 4-5 outs in an outing…….there will be ups & downs but that’s baseball. My best solution is trading with the re-tooling Brewers…….Take on $6.25M in salary by picking up 2 years of Devin Williams……Rodriguez - Gordon - Winder (2 guys that can play in ‘24 & a solid high end prospect)….or whoever - make this happen and he covers either the 8th or 9th depending upon the day. Pushes Jax & Stewart & the two lefties back to the 6th & 7th. With Williams in our Pen we are squarely in Win Now mode!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Polanco was a gamer year after year with a .270 BA through ‘21. ’22 he hit .235 and played in 104 games. ’22 he hit .256 and played like in 86 games. Performance and availability are on the decline. We have Julien/Farmer for a platoon with Lee & Martin coming. He needs to be traded to free up $$ to apply to an arm.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I like Jorge! .235 & 104 games in ‘22. .256 & 86 games in ‘23. Career gamer & .270 BA - he’s regressing due to health and he’s not the guy he once was. Farmer .255 BA in ‘23 & other than getting hit by pitch in the face, he was available all year. He’s a career .255 hitter. He’s now better at all 3 glove positions v. Polanco per metrics. $6.75M v. $10.5M………realistically, with no sentiment involved, it seems clear cut who to keep.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Castro nearly every day in CF that Buxton can’t play……..less time there as Martin comes into play in July or later. Farmer is the platoon at 2B for LH starting pitching….35 games. He spells Lewis at 3B….,,,,25 games. Lastly, he plays shortstop when CC needs a break or can’t go……..25 games. Late inning Defense at 2B a dozen times & pinch hitter another 15 times. That equates to 112 games IF nobody gets hurt at any of the 3 glove positions in the IF. If he isn’t traded, I think Gordon has a shot as the extra OF that, if in need, can play infield. Pinch runner - etc. …….the Utility Guy.
  12. JD-TWINS
    There’s 1/2 as many people here in the Cincinnati area as the Twin Cities. It’s St. Paul downtown with associated suburbs. The Castellini ownership is very frugal as well. The Lindner’s - the local equivalent to the Pohlad’s sold the club after the new stadium was named for their insurance company. The “big market Reds” was tongue in cheek, or should have been. Columbus & Indianapolis & Louisville & Lexington are all roughly 100 miles away. Minor league clubs in Indy, Louisville, & Dayton as well as Toledo. As a big Twins fan who has been here for 30 plus years, the Reds & their fans think they are the Mecca for baseball since it’s the oldest franchise. Pretty sure they have only gone over 2 million fans/yr. 2-3 times and that dates back to the Big Red Machine playing in a 56,000 seat or more, football stadium. They were in the Wildcard in September when Twins came to town and they drew maybe 18,000 per game. They spent $3-4 million more on Pagan than necessary over 2 years, no big deal. Don’t know much about Martinez but pundits seem to like his arm. However, they were playing Encarnacion-Strand at 1B & Steer/Marti at 3B, Star in LF & at 2B. Steer was voted their 2023 MVP - he’s now in LF. Strand played some 3B as well. Stephenson is the DH most of the time when he doesn’t catch. India was ROY 3 seasons ago & is their Captain and now he has no position as McClean at 2B is a lock. Why spend $15M on more depth and displace 2nd year guys with great upside & great contracts???? Assuming one or two guys will be offered in trade - they have a couple good OF on their bench in Fairchild & Fraley (?). They need a veteran pitcher to stabilize their rotation - that’s where this $15M should have been directed. This move for Cincinnati would be like the Twins paying for a FA corner IF after finding out Miranda is healed & ready to go at a high level.
  13. JD-TWINS
    From what I’ve read here and over the past months, it sounds like Canterino has got a probable spot as a 6th/7th inning guy by July or August with the Big Club. I was sour on SWR after seeing numerous posts last summer about his struggles & poor ERA but read here that over his last 12 starts his ERA was 2.92. My assumption is that’s nearly half of his starts - that’s a big step in the right direction to me. If these two guys can be part of the solution on the staff by July that would be fantastic. Not really looking for anyone else on this list to be involved in ‘24. Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick - Winder - Sands are all guys that are on the fringe of the Pen. We have our current 5 starters. Thielbar - Funderburk - Jax - Stewart - Duran are locks in the Pen out of Spring Training. Who are the 8 relievers we bring north to fill out our Pen at the end of March?………….my solution is trade Polanco for prospects and $$$ savings….. trade the prospects and Nick Gordon and E. Rodriguez and Winder to the Brewers for Devin Williams (over next 2 years & currently at $6.25M) to solidify our Pen & bring us to elite status!!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Sorry - I’m sure I must have missed this, but what’s the compensation if some Team takes a guy, claims a player, from your minor league system in the Rule 5 draft? What’s the deterrent or controlling factor in claiming guys? LMK if not too much trouble. Thanks!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Two problems - don’t think they want Polanco’s salary - don’t think we believe Jeffers should be moved? They need to have depth in CF & 2B at a low cost. They want low budget, controllable pieces. Nick Gordon and E. Rodriguez fit those needs………They probably want some potential arm(s) back to work with so Winder and Festa should work. They need catching depth and a leader on the bench with young guys, so moving Vazquez there & eating $3M per year of his salary would be reasonable. That’s 3-5 guys on their roster in ‘24 or ‘25. Do Gordon & Vazquez & Festa combined get near to “37.0” on the value scale? With Soler probably signing elsewhere, is Miranda a fit for them - at least a guy to look at in their AAA? Luzardo would be the target…..no other throw in is needed. After brief reflection, if we need to up the deal to get it to happen, we need to consider anyone other than Lee & Jenkins from our minor league system. Can we trade our draft pick at #33 or #34, received for Gray?
  16. JD-TWINS
    Nice conversation with a good young guy that’s got a big upside in our Pen!
  17. JD-TWINS
    He sure seems to have enough stuff to be on the roster for years to come. Needs to throw strikes, but his strikeout capability seems to be there. I have a bunch of confidence in this guy………hope he gets an opportunity from the jump this year!
  18. JD-TWINS
    I agree - I’ll give Miranda Spring Training to try and show something positive - have absolutely no expectations for him to be successful. To keep a spot open for him or to not add or be strategic with him not being part of the plan is trying our hands. Can’t consider Miranda a MLB plate at this point. I get he was hurt but it sure seemed deeper than that in his AB’s in ‘23.
  19. JD-TWINS
    His problem is he has no quit in him - he’s fragile - but with a reckless abandon mentality. I don’t think he has the ability to be reluctant after injury or we would have picked up on it over the past 9 years. I for one hope he is more cautious in CF & on the bases……..there’s no slowing a player down in the batter’s box………would like to see him available & effective for October!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Hoping Martin has a decent Spring & then a better April/May……..with Castro playing CF principally in the first two months, we’ll need help there by summer…….a little Buxton mixed in once or twice per week would be a really nice occurrence!
  21. JD-TWINS
    17 HR & 17 doubles in ‘23 with bad leg in 86 games………..25 HR & 25 doubles is a decent production for a guy in 120 games……if he’s at all better after surgery, this seems very attainable. Maybe not special but a real contributor and not a hole in the line-up, IMO. Honestly, I think his days as being viewed as an elite/very good CF are gone………he may only play 30-40 games there to try & maintain health.
  22. JD-TWINS
    In another post today I considered trading Kepler to free up $$ - trading Polanco to free up $$ & use those prospects or some of them & throw in a guy or two of ours in the trade for Parades. Parades, principally, at 3B & some DH. Lewis in LF & Wallner in RF. It’s a power gain overall & our OF has a RH bat with pop……..something organization may consider. The $$ saved can be used on a FA pitcher. Lugo is still out there - Wacha is still out there - with freeing up $18M in the Kepler/Polanco/Parades moves, Jordan Montgomery is now affordable at $26M for 4 years or maybe $24M for 5 years?
  23. JD-TWINS
    He’s not good enough to allocate anywhere near $20M/year. The TD had a mention of Parades from Tampa Bay potentially being available a couple days ago (seems like a pipe dream) and if he is, Twins would be way better off trading some pieces for his 31 HR’s & .840 OPS……..he can play 3B or DH or 1B & is a RH bat. Under control for 4 years and currently at $3.5M. A much better allocation of resources & way better upside than Hoskins. It will cost Rodriguez - Festa - probably a AA guy as well…..well worth it for a power bat for 4 years!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    O’Neill is the Cardinals 5th outfielder - essentially a cast-off for a team that won about 70 games - he hit .231 with 9 HR in 238 AB’s…….Teoscar Hernandez either lead the AL or was in top 3 in strikeouts - 211 K’s & 26 HR…….if Joey Gallo got as many AB’s he would hit 30 HR……….despite the pundits pushing him as a good player, he’s still not very attractive to me……., If the Guardians discard Kwan for one of those guys I’d be giddy. Clase seems to be solid as a closer - an All-Star X 2 - but he has lead the AL in saves the last 2 years & his value is probably at a career Maximum …….he blew a bunch of save opportunities this past year & went 3-9 W/L. That’s 12 games he gave up runs in and allowed them to be tied, best case, in the wins or he got behind in the losses. Somewhat volatile. Cleveland needs some offensive help from youth Infielders to supplement the two brothers at 1B & Catcher as well as the 3rd baseman. RF, as you mentioned, is a weak spot. Their pitching will bounce back with some health & their youngest guys gaining experience.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I get it & generally would be skeptical as well ……but 96 MPH is 96 - his fading into the ground (saw 3-4 strikeouts on the tube today) sinker is for real - MLB TV described his curve as “Kershaw like” - so there’s something there! O Neil can probably be signed to a minor league deal around March 28th……not the answer in any kind of trade for Twins!
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