PatPfund

I'd guess Castro is one of the most likely trade candidates since I don't see the top 3 going anywhere (Correa/Buxton can nix a trade; Lopez is an in-prime ace), and Paddack/Vasquez would be tough to move. I'm sure the feelers are out now; if there isn't much market I'd expect the Twins to non-tender Castro, and see how things go (he could always be re-signed as a free agent if a big deal doesn't develop).

There are two reasons to add a prospect to the 40-man; 1. they are ready to play in the majors, 2. you need to protect them from somebody else both claiming them in Rule 5 AND keeping them all year. I like Olivar, but he is no lock to play in the majors anytime soon, and in an era when very few position players get claimed in Rule 5 (like 2-3 a year across all baseball) there is no reason to put him on the 40-man. (And if you do put him on to protect him from Rule 5, and then need the spot later, he goes on waivers where he can be claimed with no rules about having to keep him all year.)

NO. NO. NO. We send one of our top three starting pitchers to Milwaukee for a no-hit defensive backup CF? A player Milwaukee signed as a minor league free agent? I get the site needs content, but any GM who did this should be fired immediately. (We need another SP far more than we need somebody else's Keirsey. We already have one.)

The logic behind a possible trade seems solid, and I could see Correa agreeing to waive his no-trade if it appears like the Twins have stalled or are ebbing away from legitimate contention. Falvey seems to have the correct position; listen to see if the team can benefit. My gut reaction is I don't want the trade. Correa is not only great in his play, he brings a championship attitude and clutch performance to a clubhouse that is often far too easy-going for my taste (looking at you Rocco). His stamp was all over the series win against Toronto last year, and his late-season remark about some players being too comfortable with not playing well was needed (though it would have been nice if the manager had said it first). The team probably gets weaker both on and off the field without Carlos. (And for me, the leash gets really short for the manager.) That said, if major and cheaper talent is coming back, Falvey has to consider it (like Arraez going for Lopez). If the return is just cheaper or 3-4 years out, then the Twins deserve every bit of the scorn that will follow.

I get it... But if this team is going to compete next year (and in the future) on a limited budget, they can't trade prospects for a utility player (especially one they can only afford for a year at most). They need to sign (arbitration or otherwise) and trade Castro. Then they need to count on their own young (and cheap) alternatives for position players, because that is where their organizational strength is. That means Julien, Miranda, Lee, Martin (who is a RH hitting OF), Wallner, Larnach, and so-to-be helpers from St Paul (Camargo if they can unload Vasquez, Keirsey, E Rodriguez, Keaschall, and maybe even Jenkins later on). Rather than waste money on more nearly done position vets, they need to pool some money for at least one solid (not washed up) starting pitcher who will give them a lot of steady innings. Someone like Lorenzen (who signed last year for peanuts). Maybe two of those, because starting pitching (not hitting) is where we are short with limited help on the way. Then you can convert Varland and Paddack to the bullpen for instant high-leverage arms (if you can't trade Paddack).

I can't see any reason you'd trade any of these except maybe Lopez (who is the only one not carrying a no-trade clause, prohibitive salary, and/or deep injury discount). Nor do I think you trade Lopez as that essentially starts a rebuild, and you can't really do that with Correa and Buxton locked to the roster. Outside of prospects (which the Twins mostly need if lower payroll is the future; vets cost coin), the main assets I see for trading in the off-season are Castro, and one of Larnach/Wallner (Larnach saves money, Wallner doesn't. Otherwise the Twins need to hang on to those who got hurt/sucked, and at the very least let them re-establish value before possibly dealing them in-season. Not interested in dealing Jax or Duran unless they get more pitching back (we have more potential in-house solutions for hitting than pitching). Be thrilled if they could dump Vasquez for a high A lottery pick, but not if they have to pay part of his salary.

Got a good chuckle from @tarheeltwinsfan's comment. Though as a refresher the minor leaguer you can't remember is Rayne Doncon, who is similar in age and development as Miller, but is definitely a better hitter (starred at Ft Myers '24, solid at Cedar Rapids). A really big part of our defensive issues can be laid at the manager's feet. Rocco has his strengths, but a major weakness is his passivity when it comes to pushing fundamentals especially with his veterans. You can't grant talent through boring but important drills, but you can establish a floor and teamwork that gets the most out of the present skills. Rocco also loves tinkering by moving people around all over (even pissing off Lewis late in '24 by moving him to 2B), and it messes with the development of a peak defense. Not everyone is Castro; Austen Martin is an example of someone who would benefit from just playing outfield (and playing more often). This team could use an infusion in talent, but even more it could use a sound foundation of fundamental play, and some extra focus on specific position skills.

Non tender him. Loved who he was, but there is zero evidence the radical surgery fixed his wrists, and circumstantial evidence it did not (flashes talent in a hot start, numbers tail off and become pretty dreadful; just the pattern you'd expect with a joint injury). His ups and downs look a lot like Buxton's before he finally got his knee fixed, but the problem with Alex is the bone-shortening thing was supposed to be a last resort, so there isn't a 'next up surgery'. And in these times, the $1.8 million DOES matter. You could make a strong argument that the Twins lost the post-season last year by spending on smaller contracts like Staumont, Jackson, and Margot, then not having enough cash to sign a late value like Michael Lorenzen (who pitched well for Texas, was flipped for assets, then pitched down the stretch for playoff bound KC). In a tight budget, so-called bargains for useless players are in effect a self-imposed further budget cut. Let Alex go, and offer him a minor league deal if you think he has something left. I believe his outside value is pretty close to zero, especially if you lock him to a salary he is unlikely to earn.

No, to trading Ryan or Ober. Sure, SWR and Festa may be MLB ready, but unless you think Paddack will suddenly be healthy, or Ryan (if he stays) won't be on an innings limit coming off of a serious shoulder injury, you are already counting on Simeon and David as rotation mainstays even if Ober and Ryan stay. Zebby still looks a pitch and some AAA seasoning short, Varland is probably an RP unless he finds something new, and the others are prospects still. If the Twins blow chunk next year, you can probably get more for Ryan and Ober at the deadline than in the offseason, and they are not (currently) part of the salary problem. Buxton and Correa are not tradable, and we need them. It's not exciting, but the Twins should probably stay off the free agent market unless there are late values for adding a starting pitcher. They need to get their young bats healthy and hitting (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Martin) not more roster blocking FA veterans. This team had a fair number of issues this season, but maybe the biggest was the implosion of the rotation. Trading SPs is a teardown move, not one to make the team competitive.

I guess I agree keeping Rocco makes sense, but the jury is still out on whether or not it is the right call. This makes two epic collapses (from 1st place to 14 games out, all after September 2, '22) in three years. The culprit both times was mainly talent-related (3 of our top SPs by games pitched were Bundy, Archer, and Smeltzer; only Smeltzer made it to '23 and that for only 9 games; Celestino was the main CF), but Rocco teams have a disturbing tendency to go belly-up far too often. (Everyone focuses on the last 6 weeks, but this team was AWFUL against good teams all year long. I look at Boston which has its own issues, but Cora's team kept fighting all year. And none of the players felt a need to point out they weren't the White Sox. One reason the OP doesn't mention, but also makes sense; if the team starts terribly next year, it will be tough for both Falvey and Rocco to hide, and you usually let the new head of baseball operations hire their own manager.

I'd probably put ownership at a D, and the Falvines at F. The Front Office was given a clear number (and one $30 million higher than in Cleveland) early and they were coming off a year where building Starting Pitching depth just won them a division and playoff series. Instead of adding one or two #3-type SPs (well within budget as the market shook out), they spent on crappy veteran bats, and washed up/injured pitching. Even Santana was at best a neutral move (at an offensive position, he had one stellar OPS+ month in June, one worthy of a backup 1B in September, and 4 months where he hit at a backup utility IF rate aka horribly). I see a clearer path for the FO to improve (they've clearly made good moves before) than possibly Rocco whatever their respective grades. (Lewis's comments about things falling on the youngest players, and the comment about 'we're not the White Sox' after being pushed to 2B in the middle of a playoff chase smacks of the manager losing the clubhouse. Something easier lost than regained.)

I do love the Twins, and have since I was a kid basing my batting stance on my two baseball heroes (my dad and Tony Oliva). Your question is valid and (like anything having to do with people) the answers are complicated, and to some extent involves me (even as a self-identified Twins lover). Globally, the game seriously damaged itself by tolerating player-induced slow downs, and that definitely includes me. (I remember watching the Twins on a mid-30s evening playing a dull game so slowly that it was a freakin' hour+ before the 9 hitter got an at-bat, and 75 minutes before he got a second.) I gradually stopped going to games as a giant waste of time, especially once the minors started working on the solutions. I think it also hurt the game when a lot of playoffs went behind paywalls (and the games there got the most bloated; 4.5 hours was common), I just stopped paying attention except in the paper unless my team was involved.. The game is much better now, but the damage lingers especially when you look at audience by age. Minnesota specifically tends to have a very dark view on their teams' success; it probably isn't a coincidence that Charlie Brown constantly whiffing at the football after getting re-hyped by Lucy was drawn up by a Minnesotan. The Vikings have lost 4 Super Bowls, the Timberwolves finally look good but are historic in their NBA badness, and the Twins have had a LOT of awful mixed in with the less regular success including the emotional buzz-kill often delivered by ownership (brutally cheap under Calvin, the Pohlads winning it all then trying to sell the team out of existence, etc). I disagree about the '24 Twins; they are okay, but not good (belly up against good teams and only .500 because they almost swept the White Sox). They also started horribly after the budget cuts, which looked really bad. But the promise of being better is there, and I'll be there next year, though unless the owners and FO make a serious effort this offseason (which doesn't have to be expensive; sign Lorenzen instead of trading Margot and signing Jackson, and you still make the playoffs without spending a penny extra), I wouldn't count on tons of younger fans, and without them the team's problems are going to get better.

I am truly happy he got to 100, and had impact when he played. But it is fairly depressing that the organization essentially threw away the effort by spending its meager resources on used-up RPs and ineffective veteran bats (most of whom will be lucky to be playing at all next year).

Well, to the headline question, I'd say the answer is a clear NO. In the last six weeks the Twins have fallen from contention for the division and one of the best records in baseball to competing with the White Sox for the worst finish in baseball. The only way to save a major step-back season is to finish with a clean win of the final wild card followed by at least one post-season series victory. And I ain't holding my breath.

Hated Santana early, but then he started to hit, and he has turned into pretty much the only offseason move that worked out for the Front Office. Still, I can't see him back; the Twins' biggest need last offseason was a starting pitcher, they skipped that for spending on a few veteran bats (Santana, Margot, Farmer), and marginal veteran 'pen arms all since cut/rattling-around-the-minors. Only way I see Santana back is if the Twins acquire the (still) needed SP using some of the internal solutions. Which I don't think includes Kirilloff; I think there is a greater chance he retires this offseason or is DFA'd to make 40-man space than the Twins count on him as a key lineup piece.

What @Craig Arko said. And frankly the Twins need to forget all three teams, and use the last games of the season to (re)figure out how to beat teams on a regular basis, and at least put a scare into those above us. Because if we enter the last week worrying about tie-breakers with Detroit or intra-division records this is just a race to become playoff practice fodder for some team with higher aspirations. Maybe scraping into the playoffs for a quick first round exit would have been fine a few years ago, but as defending division champions, this team was set up for much more even given a reduced budget. The aim needs to be higher than losing out on the 3rd wild card.

If it was just the $2 million this year, you could razz ownership for not taking a shot, but next year makes it toxic. Period. The Twins' payroll next year is at its worst confluence of peak salaries (Correa, Buxton, Lopez), and a TV contract situation that might be worse than ever. No way I want a washed up reliever eating up $12 million, just so we can lock down (maybe) a wild card berth this year. Hell, $12 million is just about what Lorenzen and Lugo are making this year, and some here want to waste it on the ghost of Taylor Rogers?! Just freakin' convert Varland, and hope some of the hurt players get better. (If they don't along with some of the healthy players getting better, a couple dozen relief innings isn't going to matter much anyway.)

Well, anything is possible, but trying to do statistical analysis of one inning's output is essentially void of any real meaning (like predicting someone will go hitless or bat .750 based on the first two games of the year). So this is pure speculation, and despite supposed interest elsewhere, Blewitt got a resounding empty room echo on his brief attempt at free agency. He'll have a chance to prove he can be useful in St Paul.

Loved this. My hope (like the OP's) is that Paddack is OK for next year, though renewed arm issues make it seem like he might be better in the bullpen (dominant for shorter stretches in-game, but longer stretches season-wise). Honestly, if Vázquez keeps hitting, I'd probably look to trade him and Larnach ($12 million minus whatever comes back), and I wouldn't offer arbitration to Kirilloff or Stewart (a few more million). Don't see any way out on the Sheriff, so they'll need to use him if they can, or eat money if they can't.

Yes. He's a veteran pro, a leader, a champion, and a rock of stability for a team that gave Gary Sanchez a big run the year before Vázquez was signed. And the job-share with Jeffers is well into a second season of the Twins having fully healthy catchers (which is a rare thing for the position in MLB, and super-rare for just about any position on the Twins).

AK's looks to be one of those sad "what if" MLB tales. I'm guessing the wrists are the prime culprit; the bone-shaving operation was always a last ditch effort, and an experimental one at that, and there is NO sign it worked. After rest, Kirilloff can have a strong spurt which then invariably fades into weak-rollover-swing-mode, just as you'd expect from a key joint getting inflamed from hard use. (Exactly like Buxton's knee last year.) I'm not as concerned about the D, because judging that on someone battling injury isn't super useful.... except in this case where the injury has every sign of being unfixable and chronic. With poor D, poor O, and no solution, save the $2 million and move on.

The best way to improve the team at the deadline is to sell off 2 of the 3 offseason additions (Farmer, Margot, and Santana), because the replacements (Lee, Martin, and Miranda) are flat-out better. The clear biggest need is in the rotation, but I don't see that happening now (we should have signed Lorenzen when he was cheap, but that ship has sailed); the best addition is likely a solid arm for the 'pen (and just hope the rotation doesn't fall apart).

The trade-deadline tends to be mostly a fool's market with teams paying inflated prices for mostly hope-hyped spare parts. The last two AL Central champs both got poor "grades" at the deadline, then ran away with the division. Given the Twins' looming budget crunch next year, and the horrible TV money situation, I can't really see the Twins swinging big this year, and I'm fine with that. Add a solid bullpen arm or two (like they did for low cost in the best of these deals), and maybe be a creative seller (move Farmer and Margot cheaply to teams needing veteran help and you make playing time space for Martin and Lee and the team gets better through subtraction).

You may be right (though ST stats are mostly useless). I made a similar prediction about Solano last year (mostly based on ST at-bats), and spent the last 5 months of the season laughing at myself. The joy of predictions!

The OP is a solid argument for seeing Castro more at 3B, though I expect there will be a fair amount of Farmer there as well. I'd also call up Martin first. It is time, and (especially if Kepler is dinged up) the Twins need OF help more than infield help. I strongly suspect Julien is also going to force more playing time very soon. He is a good athlete with the drive to improve his game where it is weakest; he's already shown it on the defensive side, and he put a focus on hitting lefties in the offseason. Last season's batting-against-LH-stats may soon be as useless as last season's first half defensive stats became to judging Julien's current defensive ability. But if not, Martin plays a decent 2B. (But I could also live with a Martin in LF, Byron in CF, Wallner in RF outfield in the short run with Castro playing more infield.)