PatPfund

Amen @Fire Dan Gladden! Rather than a strength, the rotation is the biggest hole in the organization. 2 good starters, one whose increased velocity was followed by a torn shoulder (and he is poised more for innings restrictions than a big step forward), and... well... the post above says it. Compare the current rotation (where Ober is clearly SP2) to the spring of '23 when Ober had to start in St Paul. We have potential answers all over the place for position players (Lewis bounce-back, Julien bounce-back, Miranda bounce-back, Lee healthy, Correa healthy, Buxton healthy, more established Larnach and Wallner, Martin getting full play instead of Margot scraps, E-Rod, Helman, Keirsey, and maybe Keaschall, or Camargo). But on the SP front, as it currently stands, we could 2-3 deep into St Paul's rotation by mid-May, and down to Randy Dobnak before you know it. This team needs another SP3-4 who is healthy and will post 160 competitive innings far more than we need another has-been OF or 1B who simply acts as a blockade to better/younger talent. (Lorenzen was that guy last year, and he got paid under $5 million.)

Maybe you protect Henriquez, but if Tonkin doesn't pitch well, I can see the Twins going the waiver route with him, and being ambivalent about the outcome; if someone claims him, Tonkin's guaranteed money comes off the books, if not you assign him to St Paul (a slightly cheaper version of the game they play with Dobnak when they need him). I do disagree about the biggest need on the Twins, though. Their rotation has two solid pieces (Lopez, Ober), Ryan returning from a shoulder injury (which even if healthy likely means innings restriction), Paddack who last had a healthy season of over 110 innings in 2019, SWR who save the season but wore down big time, and a couple rookies getting their first longer run in MLB (Festa looked up to it, Zebby looked like he needs more AAA). The single biggest need on the team is for a solid and healthy #3-#4 SP who can give the team a chance while tossing 160 innings. Several were available at bargain rates before the season last year, and we need to push the depth line down a notch or two the way we started 2023 with Ober in St Paul. All other positions have in-house possible (and cheap) solutions, and can also be remedied relatively cheaply in-season, but trying to find an SP near the deadline is both expensive and often futile. (And yeah, I know the future is brighter, but counting on multiple SWR-like seasons from Zebby on down in April/May of '25 is asking for huge trouble. The 'pen isn't the only place likely to be visited by injury.)

For a while I was in the "tender, then trade Castro" group. (Love what he brings, though Rocco seriously overuses him and others in a position shuffle that hurts our defense.) But unless they feel they can dump Vasquez's contract, non-tendering Willi seems one of the easiest ways to save money. I also think the post-Diamond Sports fallout is still going to have several teams in a tight budget situation, and like last year, several good players are not going to find the free agent market they expected. If that happens, any off-season trade market for Castro at $6 million is likely to collapse. So now I'd non-tender Willi, keep open lines, and look to bring him back at a much lower number (or wish him well). I'd take the same approach with Tonkin, and tender the rest.

Adams was definitely a surprise for me, but the OP was right about people being protected; it is about their fairly immediate use to the team, and their chances of getting taken. (Some on other threads are posting as if the Twins released players who weren't protected; José Miranda wasn't protected the season before he lit up AA and AAA and paved his way to the majors. As a Twins prospect, because he wasn't picked.) Definitely curious to see the plan for Adams come ST.

Not worried at all, and curious if the Twins might be active on the claiming side this year. Moran might get grabbed, but while I remember some dominant outings, he could follow 3 Ks with 4 BB in a heartbeat (and as I remember it, his minor league control numbers were worse than his MLB outings).

I like Tonkin, and wouldn't mind seeing him back at all. I just don't want to see the Twins walk down last year's trail locking up fringey bullpen arms early (when exactly nobody else is clamoring to sign them). Keep lines open with Tonkin, but focus on need, which for me is a healthy, innings-eating SP3/4. I still think if we'd signed Lorenzen last spring, we win the division, but we couldn't afford his paltry $4.5 million salary, because we wasted it on clowns like Jackson, Staumont, and Margot. Our current rotation is Lopez, Ober, Ryan (a guy coming off a major shoulder injury), Paddack (a guy coming off 5 years of major elbow injuries), SWR (who was great but wore down big time), Festa (a kid with a handful of MLB starts), Zebby (a kid who looked in-over-his-head), and Varland (who has guts, but has yet to show he is an MLB SP). I'd love another MLB-level arm to push the line down, the same way Ober was forced to start in St Paul in '23 (aka the year we won the division and a playoff series).

Like many, I think Raya is a lock. Guess I'd put Rosario next at 50% (he could be seen as MLB-ready-ish, has a league MVP on his résumé and could play for the Twins this season; AA isn't that far off). I like Olivar, but given the rarity of position players chosen, you literally have to think he'd be one of the top three available in all of MLB to be chosen. And even if chosen, we get him back if he doesn't stick all year with his new team. On the flip-side, if we protect him, then need the 40-man spot before Olivar is MLB-ready (so 2 years?), we have to put him on waivers, and expose him to being picked at a time other teams might have more flexibility (and no need to keep him on their active roster all year). I personally wouldn't put him on the 40-man, and wouldn't even consider any of the others listed.

I'd guess Castro is one of the most likely trade candidates since I don't see the top 3 going anywhere (Correa/Buxton can nix a trade; Lopez is an in-prime ace), and Paddack/Vasquez would be tough to move. I'm sure the feelers are out now; if there isn't much market I'd expect the Twins to non-tender Castro, and see how things go (he could always be re-signed as a free agent if a big deal doesn't develop).

There are two reasons to add a prospect to the 40-man; 1. they are ready to play in the majors, 2. you need to protect them from somebody else both claiming them in Rule 5 AND keeping them all year. I like Olivar, but he is no lock to play in the majors anytime soon, and in an era when very few position players get claimed in Rule 5 (like 2-3 a year across all baseball) there is no reason to put him on the 40-man. (And if you do put him on to protect him from Rule 5, and then need the spot later, he goes on waivers where he can be claimed with no rules about having to keep him all year.)

NO. NO. NO. We send one of our top three starting pitchers to Milwaukee for a no-hit defensive backup CF? A player Milwaukee signed as a minor league free agent? I get the site needs content, but any GM who did this should be fired immediately. (We need another SP far more than we need somebody else's Keirsey. We already have one.)

The logic behind a possible trade seems solid, and I could see Correa agreeing to waive his no-trade if it appears like the Twins have stalled or are ebbing away from legitimate contention. Falvey seems to have the correct position; listen to see if the team can benefit. My gut reaction is I don't want the trade. Correa is not only great in his play, he brings a championship attitude and clutch performance to a clubhouse that is often far too easy-going for my taste (looking at you Rocco). His stamp was all over the series win against Toronto last year, and his late-season remark about some players being too comfortable with not playing well was needed (though it would have been nice if the manager had said it first). The team probably gets weaker both on and off the field without Carlos. (And for me, the leash gets really short for the manager.) That said, if major and cheaper talent is coming back, Falvey has to consider it (like Arraez going for Lopez). If the return is just cheaper or 3-4 years out, then the Twins deserve every bit of the scorn that will follow.

I get it... But if this team is going to compete next year (and in the future) on a limited budget, they can't trade prospects for a utility player (especially one they can only afford for a year at most). They need to sign (arbitration or otherwise) and trade Castro. Then they need to count on their own young (and cheap) alternatives for position players, because that is where their organizational strength is. That means Julien, Miranda, Lee, Martin (who is a RH hitting OF), Wallner, Larnach, and so-to-be helpers from St Paul (Camargo if they can unload Vasquez, Keirsey, E Rodriguez, Keaschall, and maybe even Jenkins later on). Rather than waste money on more nearly done position vets, they need to pool some money for at least one solid (not washed up) starting pitcher who will give them a lot of steady innings. Someone like Lorenzen (who signed last year for peanuts). Maybe two of those, because starting pitching (not hitting) is where we are short with limited help on the way. Then you can convert Varland and Paddack to the bullpen for instant high-leverage arms (if you can't trade Paddack).

I can't see any reason you'd trade any of these except maybe Lopez (who is the only one not carrying a no-trade clause, prohibitive salary, and/or deep injury discount). Nor do I think you trade Lopez as that essentially starts a rebuild, and you can't really do that with Correa and Buxton locked to the roster. Outside of prospects (which the Twins mostly need if lower payroll is the future; vets cost coin), the main assets I see for trading in the off-season are Castro, and one of Larnach/Wallner (Larnach saves money, Wallner doesn't. Otherwise the Twins need to hang on to those who got hurt/sucked, and at the very least let them re-establish value before possibly dealing them in-season. Not interested in dealing Jax or Duran unless they get more pitching back (we have more potential in-house solutions for hitting than pitching). Be thrilled if they could dump Vasquez for a high A lottery pick, but not if they have to pay part of his salary.

Got a good chuckle from @tarheeltwinsfan's comment. Though as a refresher the minor leaguer you can't remember is Rayne Doncon, who is similar in age and development as Miller, but is definitely a better hitter (starred at Ft Myers '24, solid at Cedar Rapids). A really big part of our defensive issues can be laid at the manager's feet. Rocco has his strengths, but a major weakness is his passivity when it comes to pushing fundamentals especially with his veterans. You can't grant talent through boring but important drills, but you can establish a floor and teamwork that gets the most out of the present skills. Rocco also loves tinkering by moving people around all over (even pissing off Lewis late in '24 by moving him to 2B), and it messes with the development of a peak defense. Not everyone is Castro; Austen Martin is an example of someone who would benefit from just playing outfield (and playing more often). This team could use an infusion in talent, but even more it could use a sound foundation of fundamental play, and some extra focus on specific position skills.

Non tender him. Loved who he was, but there is zero evidence the radical surgery fixed his wrists, and circumstantial evidence it did not (flashes talent in a hot start, numbers tail off and become pretty dreadful; just the pattern you'd expect with a joint injury). His ups and downs look a lot like Buxton's before he finally got his knee fixed, but the problem with Alex is the bone-shortening thing was supposed to be a last resort, so there isn't a 'next up surgery'. And in these times, the $1.8 million DOES matter. You could make a strong argument that the Twins lost the post-season last year by spending on smaller contracts like Staumont, Jackson, and Margot, then not having enough cash to sign a late value like Michael Lorenzen (who pitched well for Texas, was flipped for assets, then pitched down the stretch for playoff bound KC). In a tight budget, so-called bargains for useless players are in effect a self-imposed further budget cut. Let Alex go, and offer him a minor league deal if you think he has something left. I believe his outside value is pretty close to zero, especially if you lock him to a salary he is unlikely to earn.

No, to trading Ryan or Ober. Sure, SWR and Festa may be MLB ready, but unless you think Paddack will suddenly be healthy, or Ryan (if he stays) won't be on an innings limit coming off of a serious shoulder injury, you are already counting on Simeon and David as rotation mainstays even if Ober and Ryan stay. Zebby still looks a pitch and some AAA seasoning short, Varland is probably an RP unless he finds something new, and the others are prospects still. If the Twins blow chunk next year, you can probably get more for Ryan and Ober at the deadline than in the offseason, and they are not (currently) part of the salary problem. Buxton and Correa are not tradable, and we need them. It's not exciting, but the Twins should probably stay off the free agent market unless there are late values for adding a starting pitcher. They need to get their young bats healthy and hitting (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Martin) not more roster blocking FA veterans. This team had a fair number of issues this season, but maybe the biggest was the implosion of the rotation. Trading SPs is a teardown move, not one to make the team competitive.

I guess I agree keeping Rocco makes sense, but the jury is still out on whether or not it is the right call. This makes two epic collapses (from 1st place to 14 games out, all after September 2, '22) in three years. The culprit both times was mainly talent-related (3 of our top SPs by games pitched were Bundy, Archer, and Smeltzer; only Smeltzer made it to '23 and that for only 9 games; Celestino was the main CF), but Rocco teams have a disturbing tendency to go belly-up far too often. (Everyone focuses on the last 6 weeks, but this team was AWFUL against good teams all year long. I look at Boston which has its own issues, but Cora's team kept fighting all year. And none of the players felt a need to point out they weren't the White Sox. One reason the OP doesn't mention, but also makes sense; if the team starts terribly next year, it will be tough for both Falvey and Rocco to hide, and you usually let the new head of baseball operations hire their own manager.

I'd probably put ownership at a D, and the Falvines at F. The Front Office was given a clear number (and one $30 million higher than in Cleveland) early and they were coming off a year where building Starting Pitching depth just won them a division and playoff series. Instead of adding one or two #3-type SPs (well within budget as the market shook out), they spent on crappy veteran bats, and washed up/injured pitching. Even Santana was at best a neutral move (at an offensive position, he had one stellar OPS+ month in June, one worthy of a backup 1B in September, and 4 months where he hit at a backup utility IF rate aka horribly). I see a clearer path for the FO to improve (they've clearly made good moves before) than possibly Rocco whatever their respective grades. (Lewis's comments about things falling on the youngest players, and the comment about 'we're not the White Sox' after being pushed to 2B in the middle of a playoff chase smacks of the manager losing the clubhouse. Something easier lost than regained.)

I do love the Twins, and have since I was a kid basing my batting stance on my two baseball heroes (my dad and Tony Oliva). Your question is valid and (like anything having to do with people) the answers are complicated, and to some extent involves me (even as a self-identified Twins lover). Globally, the game seriously damaged itself by tolerating player-induced slow downs, and that definitely includes me. (I remember watching the Twins on a mid-30s evening playing a dull game so slowly that it was a freakin' hour+ before the 9 hitter got an at-bat, and 75 minutes before he got a second.) I gradually stopped going to games as a giant waste of time, especially once the minors started working on the solutions. I think it also hurt the game when a lot of playoffs went behind paywalls (and the games there got the most bloated; 4.5 hours was common), I just stopped paying attention except in the paper unless my team was involved.. The game is much better now, but the damage lingers especially when you look at audience by age. Minnesota specifically tends to have a very dark view on their teams' success; it probably isn't a coincidence that Charlie Brown constantly whiffing at the football after getting re-hyped by Lucy was drawn up by a Minnesotan. The Vikings have lost 4 Super Bowls, the Timberwolves finally look good but are historic in their NBA badness, and the Twins have had a LOT of awful mixed in with the less regular success including the emotional buzz-kill often delivered by ownership (brutally cheap under Calvin, the Pohlads winning it all then trying to sell the team out of existence, etc). I disagree about the '24 Twins; they are okay, but not good (belly up against good teams and only .500 because they almost swept the White Sox). They also started horribly after the budget cuts, which looked really bad. But the promise of being better is there, and I'll be there next year, though unless the owners and FO make a serious effort this offseason (which doesn't have to be expensive; sign Lorenzen instead of trading Margot and signing Jackson, and you still make the playoffs without spending a penny extra), I wouldn't count on tons of younger fans, and without them the team's problems are going to get better.

I am truly happy he got to 100, and had impact when he played. But it is fairly depressing that the organization essentially threw away the effort by spending its meager resources on used-up RPs and ineffective veteran bats (most of whom will be lucky to be playing at all next year).

Well, to the headline question, I'd say the answer is a clear NO. In the last six weeks the Twins have fallen from contention for the division and one of the best records in baseball to competing with the White Sox for the worst finish in baseball. The only way to save a major step-back season is to finish with a clean win of the final wild card followed by at least one post-season series victory. And I ain't holding my breath.

Hated Santana early, but then he started to hit, and he has turned into pretty much the only offseason move that worked out for the Front Office. Still, I can't see him back; the Twins' biggest need last offseason was a starting pitcher, they skipped that for spending on a few veteran bats (Santana, Margot, Farmer), and marginal veteran 'pen arms all since cut/rattling-around-the-minors. Only way I see Santana back is if the Twins acquire the (still) needed SP using some of the internal solutions. Which I don't think includes Kirilloff; I think there is a greater chance he retires this offseason or is DFA'd to make 40-man space than the Twins count on him as a key lineup piece.

What @Craig Arko said. And frankly the Twins need to forget all three teams, and use the last games of the season to (re)figure out how to beat teams on a regular basis, and at least put a scare into those above us. Because if we enter the last week worrying about tie-breakers with Detroit or intra-division records this is just a race to become playoff practice fodder for some team with higher aspirations. Maybe scraping into the playoffs for a quick first round exit would have been fine a few years ago, but as defending division champions, this team was set up for much more even given a reduced budget. The aim needs to be higher than losing out on the 3rd wild card.

If it was just the $2 million this year, you could razz ownership for not taking a shot, but next year makes it toxic. Period. The Twins' payroll next year is at its worst confluence of peak salaries (Correa, Buxton, Lopez), and a TV contract situation that might be worse than ever. No way I want a washed up reliever eating up $12 million, just so we can lock down (maybe) a wild card berth this year. Hell, $12 million is just about what Lorenzen and Lugo are making this year, and some here want to waste it on the ghost of Taylor Rogers?! Just freakin' convert Varland, and hope some of the hurt players get better. (If they don't along with some of the healthy players getting better, a couple dozen relief innings isn't going to matter much anyway.)

Well, anything is possible, but trying to do statistical analysis of one inning's output is essentially void of any real meaning (like predicting someone will go hitless or bat .750 based on the first two games of the year). So this is pure speculation, and despite supposed interest elsewhere, Blewitt got a resounding empty room echo on his brief attempt at free agency. He'll have a chance to prove he can be useful in St Paul.