LA Vikes Fan

I agree that Duffy needs to move to lower leverage spots, but i don't think its fair to say that the Rogers trade is the reason we are having bullpen issues. We got Pagan back as part of the Rogers trade and he has been good. We wouldn't have pitched Rogers in the 6th last night either. We need to cycle more guys through the bullpen and give the effective relievers the higher leverage innings. Right now, that means Pagan, Coulombe, Duran, and Smith in the higher leverage situations. That isn't enough. We're hamstrung carrying at least 4 relievers who aren't any help right now - Stashak, Thielbar. Jax and Duffy. Time to make a change or two, get Smeltzer and maybe Cano up and try them. I would lose Jax and Stashak now and try those two, and also move Theilbar and Duffy to mop up duty until they either "find themselves" or go on May 1.

I hope you’re right but I don't see anyone likely to improve much other than Correa and Polanco. We went into this year relying on Improvements from Kirilofff, Sano, Kepler, and Jeffers. Looking back on it, that wasn’t very realistic outside of Kirilloff. Kepler hasn't ever really hit other than in 2019, Sano the same, and Jeffers is still developing. I hope you’re right but I don't think this team has a cavalry to ride in.

Guys, this offense is only going to go as far as Buxton, Polanco and Correa take it. Arraez can help some as a secondary piece, and Urshela and Sanchez can be tertiary pieces. There is no one else. Sano and Kepler are who they are - a streaky, unreliable hitter who can't field (Sano), and a below average hitter at an offensive position who has an above average glove (Kepler). They are not going to be the pieces we need to improve the offense. And if Rocco hits Kepler 4th again? Fireable offense. Our only real hope is that 2 ne players emerge to lengthen the lineup. Maybe Larnach can be one of those guys. Frankly, maybe Lewis, Contreras or Miranda can come up and be one of those guys. Does the bullpen need help around the edges? Absolutely, but it's not the biggest problem. The lineup is the biggest problem and we do not have the players on the roster to fix that problem. We need new guys. Right now it looks to me like we are trading Correa at the deadline (if he can get going), bringing up Lewis to play SS, and searching for starting caliber MLB OFs for the rest of the season. Disappointing but probably predictable. I think I let getting Correa go to my head. 78-84.

The one ray of hope is that neither Correa or Polanco is hitting at all so there may be some offense that going to come around. Other than that, this is your team at the plate team folks. The starting pitching has actually been better than expected, and the bullpen has either been quite effective or a complete meltdown with nothing in between. The big disappointment is the offense and the only real hope for it to improve is Correa and Polanco hitting like the All-Stars they are. The only other hope is that 2 or 3 of Sano, Larnach, Kepler, Jeffers, or Gordon becomes a quality hitter. I'm not liking the odds on any of them breaking out and really not liking the odds on 2 or 3 of them breaking out. This could get ugly,

Oh my God, I remember once spending what seemed like eternity in a theater watching a second rate performance of Waiting for Godot. Excruciating, and I'm not sure better acting we have improved things. Perhaps a car chase or a dance number might've made for a more interesting evening, but even that might not have helped. Still, much more entertaining than watching "My Dinner With Andre". Perhaps "My Dinner With Rocco" would be better. It's a tough call. Very funny adaptation. I liked the Shakespeare as well. Very literary group.

i agree on the walks. It was good to see the Twins take much more high quality at bats. They are going to have to do that to be successful offensively. This team just doesn't have the talent in the lineup to mash opponents, and they now have even less with Buxton and Kirilloff out. They are going to have to work counts, get walks, and hit situationally to score runs. That hasn't been a trademark of this team the last few years. I hope they can do that.

Hopefully Garlick won't spend much time in the field or the lineup, he is not good out there. The harder call is Arraez. We need his bat now even more than before with Buxton out but he is an adventure at 3rd. Bad inning against the Dodgers and ole'd another ball he should have played. Solution? Hmmm, where to play a hitter who isn't good with the glove..... what's open... Wait, isn't left field open? PLAY ARRAEZ IN LF! Play Urshela every day at 3B, DFA Garlick or option Celestino or Larnach and bring up Miranda to play some at 3B and some at 2B. Improves the batting order and gets Arraez away from 3B. Sano is better there than he is. Wait, Arraez to 1B and Sano to 3B? Hmmmmm.....

I agree that it's way too early to judge the pitching. I'm actually optimistic about that group. I don't think its too early to judge the lineup though based on their track record. We were all planning on Kirilloff to be the number 4 or 5 hitter and with him gone and unlikely now to be that guy this year we kind of know what we have. Three good to elite hitters - Correa, Polanco and Buxton (maybe, jury is still out), one pretty good complimentary hitter with no power in Arraez, one maybe at that same level with a little more power in Urshela, a catching tandem that's decent for catchers with some power and lots of SOs, and a major black hole in RF, 1B, and LF - spots where you should have 3 good hitters not a streaky high SO guy, a lousy hitter and young, unproven guys with spotty track records. Add to that we seem to have very few position players in the minors screaming to be brought up. Hard to optimistic about the future of that lineup. Looks like the only way to get a better lineup is to do the one thing we probably shouldn't do - trade young pitching. I think we're stuck with this group and I don't see them as anything more than a middle of the pack offense and probably a little less than that. The pitching is better but not good enough to overcome that.

Following the last two games in an office in LA surrounded by Dodger fans too polite to say the truth - the Twins are nowhere hear the Dodgers league.

Ah, how one day and one injury changes things. This lineup is about 4 bats long, 5 against RH pitching because you can add Arraez. Kirilloff was supposed to be a middle of the order bat. Gone, and might be for awhile. Sano is off to his usual torrid start. Won't be any better than last year and a better second half doesn't help a team out of contention by the All Star Break. Kepler is who he is - a lousy hitter. The Catching position actually could be mediocre at the plate and that's the best spot in the back half of the lineup. The pitching? Not that bad. Could be middle of the pack. Defense? Not good so far. Overall? Mediocre team. Let's use this year to develop some more guys.

Hard to see a good reason to go get Upton. Frankly, Garlick looks like a better bat at this point. If we think we can contend, put Arraez out there, live with his poor defense and hope he knees allow him to play 120 games. Maybe pair him with Garlick. If this is really more of a rebuilding/development season, put Gordon out there some and Larnach some and see what happens. I lean to the latter because I think these first 6 games have sobered me up to see how many holes this team has. The pitching may be average - an improvement but not good enough - but the lineup is least two hitters too short to really contend. I hate to say it, but I think we have time. Persistent soreness that affects one's swing in an already surgically repair wrist doesn't sound like a 10 day IL stint to me. Sounds more like at least a month and that's if they can figure out what's wrong.

Arraez as "a much better hitting Astudillo"? Well said. You have that exactly right.

Arraez is a great hitter against RH pitching, ok against LH pitching (maybe could improve with more ABs against LHs), and a real joy to watch. But he really is a one trick pony. He has no real power and he is brutal defensively, just brutal. I live in LA and was listening the game on the drive home from work when he made the error in the 8th. He also apparently whiffed on a previous play he should have made and missed a third. His defense was the reason the Dodgers had a 6 run inning rather than a 2 run inning and he made the relief pitchers look even worse than they were. The Dodger announcers were polite but they not only questioned the results they questioned his effort saying that on his error he missed the ball by a foot and "didn't give a major-league effort". They actually wondered if there was a lighting issue such that he wasn't seeing the ball because he was so far off on these plays. We've seen this before. He can't really play 3B, SS or LF. I agree with the previous poster on his position, he can only play 2B and there is a little below average. Unfortunately, our second best player plays 2B so he hasn't got a spot in the field. I think Arraez should be the full time DH against RH pitching and sometimes against LH pitching in tandem with Sanchez so he can get better there. He can spell an IF occasionally but not too often. Let's be honest, it's not like we got anybody else to DH who's any good and he provides the only real high OBP bat on the team. At the present time, we appear to have basically a 4 hitter deep lineup when he doesn't play so let's DH him and make it 5 deep. Let's also get Urshela's glove in the field every day at 3B. He can actually play the position. The DH doesn't have to be a power hitter; it's just your best hitter is not playing the field that day. Most days on this team that's Arraez. Arraez as an everyday player in the field? Not on a good team. Arraez as a LH DH who spells IFs on an occasional basis? There's his value on a good team.

Agreed, although I would add Kirilloff into that mix. Hopefully this is just one series and at least one of those 3 will come around quickly because otherwise we have a pretty short lineup. Best bet on that is Sano. Kepler is what he is - a .220 hitter with some power who's a good defensive OF. 8th or 9th place hitter. Kirilloff looks bad at the plate right now and may need some time at AAA to get 4-5 ABs a game and get his swing back after the long injury layoff.

What am I looking for from Bundy? At least 5 innings, hopefully 6, and 3 or fewer runs. I think we have a less than 50/50 chance of either. I would nominate him as "most likely to be the odd man out when the rotation goes from 6 to 5 in a month", but then there's Archer. Archer is a great cartoon, not such a great starting pitcher.

I don't agree with the idea that Duffy is somehow 67-76 because of his holds in innings other than the 9th, There's a big psychological difference between pitching in the 9th with a one run lead and pitching earlier innings with that same lead. Earlier innings are less tense and psychologically easier to do because your team always has the ability and the time to rally if you don't pitch well. There is a reason that some guys thrive in ninth inning close situations and some don't; it's their ability to handle pressure where there is an air of finality attached to their performance. I think Duffy is a very good setup man, can do a great job in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings, and I'm glad we have him. He does not have the temperament to be a closer based upon his very poor record in that role. I think baseball has become so analytically based that sometimes we forget these are human beings, not robots. You have to take the human element into account. Some players are able to maintain their performance in clutch or pressure situations (no one actually gets better in those situations), and some are not as good at that. A closer needs to be someone who could maintain his performance. Duffy's track record showed that he is not that guy in ninth inning situations. Trying him as a closer might have made sense without considering his emotional makeup but it doesn't when you take that into consideration. The failure to do that is on the manager. That is his primary job. I've been a defender of Rocco but it is getting hard.

Here are two hot takes which I fear might actually turn out to be true. First, this lineup is not very good overall and only decent if Buxton, Correa and Polanco all hit well. The rest of the lineup looks like a wasteland other than Urshela and Arraez and it doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to play both of them the same day. Kirilloff appears badly overmatched and needs a trip back down to AAA, and we already know that Sano is the best a streaky number six type hitter, and that Kepler is simply not a good hitter overall and can’t hit left-handers at all. The rest of the spots are just Hopes and wishes. Moreover, we can’t hit left-handed pitching at all since it effectively takes Arraez and Kepler out of the lineup. That right handed hitting outfielder we were hoping for to be the fourth outfielder? We need that guy now and we need him to play every day either in left field or in right field when a lefty starts. We are way to home run dependent to score runs, bad roster management. The second is that it’s going to take us at least a month or two to find any sort of reliable closer. Duffy is not the answer and was just a bad managerial choice given his track record of 4 out of 13 in save opportunities. But watch, Rocco will give him at least three or four more tries before he does the right thing and starts running Pagán, Alcala, and maybe Duran out there. We will have to find one or two of those three to close games. My overreaction is that this team will be something like 12 - 18 after 30 games, struggle and fail to even get to .500 by the All-Star break, and the hot topic on this board will be who we’re going to get when we trade Carlos Correa at the All-Star break or deadline. I’m following Lewis at SS and Miranda, who is hopefully playing in left field at AAA, and Martin who hopefully is also playing in the outfield in AA. Those guys will need to make a big contribution this year for us to make a second-half run. Final record: 78–84.

What ashbury said. We need controllable quality starting pitching. You have to give something of quality up to get that, something like Rogers. The real question is did we get controllable starting pitching in Paddack. I think so IF he isn't and doesn't get hurt. The "small UCL tear" is a little concerning. If that isn't a problem, I think we got a guy who will slot in as a #3/4 starter with an ERA in high 3s to mid 4s who can go 150 + innings a year. and who might be better than that. Plus we got a reliever who should be average and who also could be more. Giving up a quality reliever near the end of his contract is worth that return. Rooker had no trade value since he was on the verge of being waived so we can't count him as "value" lost. Great trade? No. Fair trade? Yes.

I don't see any chance that Ober is going into the bullpen anytime soon. I don't think we have a single starter stretched out to go more than 5 innings, if that. I think we will simply have a 6 man rotation through May as we work through the starters, assuming Archer is stretched to enough to start games. If not, he's the bullpen piece. Ober was brought up from the Minors to be a starter and was very effective in that role with room to grow. Moving Ober to the bullpen would frankly be just be poor roster management. There is no magic to 5 starters, the rules actually allow you to have any size rotation you want. Ober is a picture this team wants to have as a starter for the foreseeable future so that's where he's going to be this year unless he is ineffective. I think we will run a 6 man rotation for the 1st month while we are carrying 16 pitchers and then, and only then, will we be making some changes or thinking about moving anyone to the bullpen from these top 6.

Based on your analysis that the separation between Paddack and our other 6–8 starters isn't significant, I understand your concern. I'm kind of assuming that the 6-8 starters for 2022 are Winder, and some combination of Smeltzer, Balazovic (IL), Sanchez. Henriquez and Megill since that's who seems to be starting at AAA. Maybe in 2023 you could add Strotman, SWR, Varland, and Canterino, who are opening at AA, but probably not this year. If you accept that list, where I would disagree as I think Paddack is significantly better than anyone on that list except for Winder and maybe SWR or Caterino, both of whom are probably a full year away. So I think the play here is twofold. This year Paddack adds starting pitching depth that we will undoubtedly need given the 5 starters we have. I would expect both Winder and Paddack to get a minimum of 10 to 15 start each if only for injury and innings limits. That assumes everybody's reasonably effective and I think the odds on that with Bundy and Archer in the rotation are not real great. I think next year Bundy and/or Archer are gone, Winder and Paddack are in the rotation. So this year he's needed depth and the expectation next year he is in the rotation every 5th day. Now all of that can go south if he gets hurt or is ineffective so there is risk. Is that risk worth one year of Taylor Rogers (I think it's a fair assumption that he would not be re-signed by the Twins once he hits the open market)? I think so but recognize that reasonable minds can differ.

The issue here is how one evaluates Paddack. Rooker for Pagan is a solid win for the Twins. If Patick is what he was in 2019, Paddack for Rogers is a win for the Twins. Starters are worth more than relievers. If Paddack is what he was in 2021, FIP notwithstanding, it’s a clear win for the Padres. As with many things, I think Paddack is going to turn out to be somewhere in between those two years, essentially a number 3/4 starter who gives us 150+ innings a year with an ERA from the high 3s to the low 4s. I think that means that the Padres win that end of the trade and it winds up about even overall given the different years of control. I don’t like losing Rodgers. Still, three years of Paddack could actually be a very good thing If he turns out better than I am thinking and a pretty good thing if he hits the mark I’m anticipating. In short, we improved the rotation at the expense of the bullpen and I’m OK with that.

Upton might very well be worth a look, especially if we consider our other options. If we go on ST performance, neither Rooker (.063/.211/.125) or Garlick (.037/.161/.037) should be in the MLB discussion, and maybe not even in the "should we care if they stay in the organization" discussion. I know ST isn't the best indicator always but for guys fighting for a roster spot they are sure stinking up the joint. If they can't handle the make the team in ST pressure it's hard to see how they will handle the pressure of playing games that actually matter. Also, by the way Jax (13.50 ERA), Velez (27.00) and Romero (6.75) gave up 9 earned runs (6 by Jax) in the last 3 innings to cost us the last ST game. I don't care about the game but I just hope those 3 are not on the MLB roster on Opening Day (although I guess Romero might be). Sheesh. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that out RH hitting 4t OF is not on the team right now but will be Upton or someone grabbed on waivers from another team. Rooker gets waived for the 40 man spot and probably gets through (not a big deal if lost) and Garclick is assigned to the AAA team or released. By the way, I think this is the right answer.

Sounds like the saw Godoy and decided he wasn't the LH hitting catcher they need, so they moved on to Cisco. Better pedigree, but not much performance at the plate. The 2nd/3rd/AAA insurance LH hitting catcher carousel may just keep spinning for awhile. And who knows, Godoy may wind up in St. Paul or Wichita if he liked us and we liked him enough. A little scary though, because it now appears that Sanchez will catch at least 2 days a week. I think it's Garlick over Rooker on merit. I'm guessing that the Twins will wait until the last second to run Rooker through waivers and hope that he gets by in the crush of waived players in a day or so. Not a big deal if he doesn't since he only fits on a bad team roster like Oakland or Baltimore. Anyone else will just have to waive him again in a month. Still, the extra 2 guys until May 1 might give a team a spot to stash him and see what they got. Finally, I'm a little surprised that Smeltzer didn't make the club given his ST performance. I guess the Twins have decide to make him a starter in AAA, stretch him out, and have him be the 7th or 8th starter this year. I'm assuming Winder is starter #6, Duran is now in the bullpen for at least a season, so who's #7? Smeltzer may fit in there over Strotman, Balazovic and Sands, at least for now. We will go through at least 8 or 9 starters so I see Smeltzer getting 5-10 starts this year, more if he's effective. Gray is the only 160-180 IP guy in the rotation now, if even him, so there will be plenty of starts to go around.

Great idea, but the Dodgers just traded Pollack for Kimbrel so they’re short a 4th OF. I thunk Pillar makes the Dodger team.

Another good day on the mound for Smeltzer - 4 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 SO, 2 BB. My money is on Smeltzer to be an add on to the 40 man and to go north with the team, Either a waiver of Rooker or Enlow on the 60 day IL accomplishes the task.