LA Vikes Fan

Are we showcasing Gallo for a trade? Sorry, I couldn't say that without laughing. He has a good game, maybe we get a full bucket of balls for him rather than a halt bucket

Agreed and a key point. The Twins need to think about their 2024 OF in making any kind of deal. Right now, that OF is .... well, Castro, Wallner and Larnach with Gordon and Stevenson in reserve? Gallo and Taylor are on expiring deals - Gallo can't hit, and Taylor is 32, fields well but also can't hit. Kepler has a $10m option that the Twins may or may not pick up. The Kepler of the last 30-40 games is worth $10M; the Kepler of the first 50-60 games isn't worth $2m. Buxton is signed but may not see the OF in 2024 either. A lot hinges on Kepler. If we're going to pick up the option or negotiate a 2-3 year deal at a lower AAV with Kepler, Wallner or Larnach is available. If not, we should be in the market for a Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson so we have a young OF for next year who can play CF if we need him. Frankly, we might be in that market even if we keep Kepler. Lots of moving parts here, all of which we have to keep in mind before making any deals.

None of thee guys are very exciting except for Robertson and maybe HIcks. MLB Trade Rumors says that St. Louis is negotiating with Hicks to get to a long term deal so he might be unavailable. Robertson is having a very good year but he's 38 and a 2 month rental, so price is key. Is he worth a mid-level prospect? Sure. Is he worth more? I would say no and I think he may cost more than a mid-level prospect. I suspect the Twins will get a Fulmer type at most and perhaps nothing. Despite last night's implosion. the bullpen has been decent. The big question is whether Thielbar and Stewart are really coming back and could then displace Ortega and either Moran or Balazovic. If they are really on track to come back at full strength within the next 2-3 weeks, I could easily see the team deciding to wait for that rather than overpaying for a quality reliever. If that's not the prognosis, I expect the team to be active in getting someone higher end than a Fulmer type. I think we'll learn a lot about Stewart and Thielbar's 2023 prognosis form how the twins act in the next few days.

Love the thought on Jordyn Adams but he won't be available unless we're willing to give up starting pitching that can pitch at the MLB level now - think Varland at least. The Angels are thinking the same way about Adams the poster is and will not trade him except for a major return. I share your concern about next years OF. I am not yet sold on wither Wallner (no defense, too many SOs) or Larnach (low BA, too many SOs). Gordon is also a real question mark. I expect Kepler to stay after what he's shown in the last 30-40 games. .286/.343/.541 over the last 30 games. Your 2024 starting LF right now is a Gordon or Castro/Wallner or Larnach platoon. Not exciting. Given the pitching cost though, I would much rather spend a little more and get Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson if we can. I still expecting a minor trade for a Randal Grichuck type at best, though, and the Trwins to roll with the guys they presently have in 2024 in the OF. Any FA money will be spent on pitching.

Love the idea but no way do we get Thomas for Wallner, Larnach, or Miranda unless that pitching prospect is named Varland, Festa or Raya. Even SWR isn't enough plus Wallner probably isn't enough. And Wallner is worth a lot more than Larnach right now so putting him probably means 2 names from that list.

O'Neill had good years in 2018 and 2019 in limited ABs (less than 175 ABs each year), and a very good year in 2021. He has been pretty poor since then. Even if you throw out 2020 as just too weird a year to learn much (he hit .173/.261/.360 (.621) in 2020), he was pretty weak in 2022 - .228/.308.392(.700) - and even worse so far this year at .229/.308/.333 (.641). I can see the reason to think he might come back but I sure don't want to spend much capital hoping for that possibility to manifest. I'd rather have Carlson than O'Neill for the same price.

Everything you read says that Nootbar isn't available, Carlson may be for the right pitching package. Assuming that's right, the question is would you trade Varland AND SWR or Festa for him? That's what it will take, not Varland OR SWR. Even then we might have to add in a lower-level prospect. You might be able to keep Varland and sub in Festa or Raya. Price is going to be pretty steep, but St. Louis wants MLB ready pitching, not longer term prospects. Tough issue because let's not forget that the Twins are losing the alleged "glut" of MLB OFs next year. Gallo will not be back. MAT will be a free agent and Kepler will be a tough choice at 10m so he may be gone. Buxton in CF? Hard to bank on that at this point. We may be down to Willi Castro, Wallner and Larnach in the OF next year. Not pretty. At the very least, we will need a LF and we may need a CF and a LF. Carlson could fill that hole. I would trade for Carlson - or Lane Thomas for that matter - if we don't have to include Varland, Festa or Raya. Every other MiLB pitcher is available in my thinking, including Balazovic and Moran. Unfortunately, that probably doesn't get it done so I'm guessing Carlson and Johnson are out of my price range.

Well, we have the answer for how to play Julien and Polanco at the same time. Polanco is going to play 3B during his rehab. If that works out, where does Lewis play when he comes back 2 weeks thereafter? LF?

Two step analysis. First, is the player additive to the team this year and beyond? I would say Carlson definitely is. Remember, no Gallo and maybe no Kepler or MAT next year. I'm not sanguine that Wallner AND Larnach will be solid MLB players next year. Maybe one, but probably not both, and maybe neither. Carlson could really help in 2024 and is controllable through 2027. Would be a good get. The second step is the tough one; the cost. St. Louis is clear that they want at or near MLB ready pitching. Wallner or Larnach alone will not be near enough. Nor would Varland or SWR alone. I am not willing to trade Varland because I think he's part of next year's rotation. Here's a trade thought - Twins get Carlson and reliever Jordon Hicks. Cardinals get SWR or Matt Canterino, Wallner or Larnach, and Headrick or Henriquez. BTV says Carlson and Hicks for Canterino, Wallner, and Headrick or Henriquez is about even. I'll change it to Carlson and Hicks for Canterino, SWR, and Larnach. That trade I would make. If you change out Wallner for Larnach, I then would want a prospect in addition from St. Louis but then I would make the trade. Would you?

I am not a huge fan of the Teoscar Hernandez, but I do think it would be a good deal if we could move Gallo plus a mid or low level prospect for him. Doubt that will do it though. He is a butcher in the outfield, so wouldn’t make sense to trade Kepler for him.

I agree with you on Varland. I think he stands a good chance of being in the 2024 rotation. I also agree that SWR has a chance to be an MLB starter at some point in 2024 and beyond. I disagree on the value of Lane Thomas and Carlson because of our needs for 2024 and beyond. I sincerely hope that Gallo does not return; he's not what we need. I'm 50/50 on Kepler because I'm not sure that the last 6 weeks of Kepler or even 90% of that is sustainable, and I question whether Buxton will return to full time OF duty. I'm lukewarm on Wallner's long term future anywhere but DH and I'm tepid at best on Larnach. That takes from a glut of OFs to a shortage next year. A young, controllable OF who is league average or better now with upside has real value to the 2024-2026 Twins. Are Carlson or Thomas better than Gordon and/or Castro? Right now, Thomas looks a lot better and Carlson looks at least close to the same with more potential. To me, getting one of those guys is worth SWR plus Wallner or Larnach. Not worth Varland, Festa, or Raya. For Thomas, I would even consider giving up Wallner, SWR and a decent but not high end prospect. My thinking is that helps now and could really help in 2024-2026.

Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas are two allegedly available guys we might want. That package seems about right for Thomas, a little heavy for Carlson. The Cardinals want pitching and have enough OFs so you'd probably have to substitute SWR and Varland for Laranch and Wallner to make it work. Frankly. Washington might require a pitcher plus the OF instead of 2 OFs. Here's a question - would you trade one of our "near MLB ready" pichers and Wallner for a Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas? How about Larnach? Think better pitcher needs to go with Larnach, say Varland, while a lesser or younger pitcher can go with Wallner, say SWR, Festa, Canterino, or Raya. I would actually really consider trading Wallner and SWR for Carlson or Thomas, and would even add in a mid level pitching prospect in a package for Thomas. I'd consider Festa instead of either of them in a package. Would you? I wouldn't trade Varland as part of a deal for either guy.

Much rather have Carlson. I think the jury is still very out on whether ONeill can hit at the MLB level. Carlson is the better player. The issue is that Carlson costs us something like Canterino and Wallner, or Canterino, Woods-Richardson, and another mid-level guy since the Cardinals want pitching, not more OFs. Maybe we get O'Neill for just one of the better AAA pitchers (Varland or SWR) and a mid-level prospect if its SWR. Not sure I'm willing to pay the price for Carlson, don't want O'Neill enough to pay what he costs. Bottom line, is I would make the deal for Carlson if we only have to give up one of Canterino, Varland, or SWR plus a prospect other than Wallner, maybe Larnach. I'm not sure that gets it done so I probably don't make the deal.

Like the idea, but I've read that the Cardinals are not willing to part with Nootbar. They are wiling to trade Tyler O'Neill and maybe Dylan Carlson. They want pitching close to MLB ready pitching. Willing to part with Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Raya, or Festa? If you think baseball trade rumors is even remotely accurate, Canterino will get you O'Neill, Wood-Richardson plus Enlow or Headrick also will. Carlson will cost Canterino, Woods-Richardson and Enlow or Headrick at least. Willing to make any of those deals? Nootbar probably costs all of those guys plus a lot. Realistically, a trade for Nootbar costs us someone like Ober, or Ryan if they throw in a quality reliever to go with Nootbar. Nootbar's not available and waaaay too expensive even if he was. My thinking is a hard no on O'Neill but maybe on Carlson. Would rather have Lane Thomas from the Nationals, but he probably costs Canterino and Wallner, or Wallner and Woods-Richardson, plus some AA or A+ guy with potential. Interesting, but expensive. My bottom line is that the only OF worth trading real assets for is one that has at least 2024 control when we need OFs with at least Gallo and maybe Kepler gone. That kind of player is going to cost a pretty penny. I'm prepared for the team to either do noting or do a Gallo plus decent prospect for Randal Grichuk kind of deal. Meh, but maybe moves the needle a little. Frankly, given the apparent pricing, I'm fine with a no or meh kind of an approach.

Interesting that Buxton isn't playing. It may be that he's just going with the same group that scored 10 last night or it may be that they're contemplating something or have something in the works. Kuechel's opt out date is Friday so there may be some roster juggling coming. Polanco also has to be close to returning, and maybe closer if he could DH when he got back with the Twins. Probably nothing, but one never knows.

BTW, Baseball trade Values says Lane Thomas is worth Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Wallner, and Gallo. Gallo is a 0 so he's just a throw in to balance the roster; you can pretend he isn't there. Carlson is worth Wallner, either Woods-Richardson plus or Canterino or Raya, and Gallo. If you go from Wallner to Larnach you have to add another pitcher like Raya or Festa and maybe get a lottery ticket or expiring contract guy from the Cardinals. Not sure I'd make either deal, maybe the Carlson one. Wallner, Canterino and Gallo for Carlson? Also, the Cardinals want pitching. Canterino, Raya and Gallo for Carlson? Not so sure about either of those.... All this just shows me is that getting a quality RH OF is very expensive and probably not worth it. Also makes me wonder if trading Wallner when his value is so high is the right thing to do before the deadline. His value is higher now than it's ever been.

I was/is one of Kepler's bigger critics but I agree for now. He has hit .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs and probably saved his job for this season. I really doubt the Twins trade for a 3B with Lewis back in 2-3 weeks and Polanco back in a few days. They have to have some way of playing Polanco and Julien together. One of them at 3B is one of the short term options. Stewart should be back in a few weeks and Theilbar a little sooner. Maeda may wind up in the bullpen so Kuechel can come up and start by 7/31 or he'll opt out. With all that happening, I don't see them paying premium deadline prices for a reliever. I think the only realistic upgrade is to bring on a RH hitting OF and then, that player is probably a part time player absent injury. The likely (and perhaps only) way to get Polanco, Julien, Lewis and Kirilloff in the lineup is to either put Buxton on the bench, long term Il or in CF (all unlikely), or put one of those 4 in LF. I see the lineup when all are back around 8/10 is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Polanco at 2B, a Julien/Solano platoon at 1B, Kepler in RF, Castro/MAT in CF, and Kirilloff in LF. Farmer the IF UT with Castro and Solano also doing UTL duty. Gallo is a prt time OF?IB?PH who sits more than he starts. Trading for Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson - both of whom I'd love to have for 2024 when Gallo and maybe Kepler are gone - requires losing Gallo or an injury and probably costs at least a top 15-20 pitching prospect if not one in the 7-10 range. I agree that the only options are a RH LF and maybe a BP arm. I don't see the Twins paying much for either one unless it's for a longer term controllable piece, i.e., Thomas or Carlson. My guess is the price will be too high and what we see is what we got. The quote will be "getting (Lewis, Polanco, Stewart, Theilbar) back is just like a deadline trade upgrade without the cost."

Dylan Carlson could be a good get if we can't get Lane for an affordable price. Young, switch hitter, can play center field, .845 OPS against LH pitching this year (only .664 against RH pitching), arb eligible in 2024, FA in 2027. Would rather have Lane but Carlson might be a decent fall back. Lane and Carlson only work if we lose Gallo though so they can get some ABs. Turner is ok and has the right pedigree but where do you play him once Lewis comes back? You don't want to play Turner at the expense of Lewis, Kirlloff, or Julien (by forcing Polanco back to 2B). I just don't see how he fits unless Buxton is done for the season. Teoscar Hernandez is the classic boom or bust guy. Hard to find a place to play him a lot unless Gallo is gone, and even then it limits your options. If he's available for a mid level prospect or an A ball lottery ticket, ok I guess if coupled wiht losing Gallo, but I wouldn't give up a real asset for him with the roster where it is. Hard to see a place to play him without limiting the young guys we have who have earned time - Julien, Kirillof and Lewis - and that's something I really don't want to do. Lane or Carlson combined with losing Gallo - sign me up. Turner if Buxton or Lewis will be gone into September or for the year? Ok. Other than that, just not seeing the value here.

It is weird because you feel like there need to be some changes but the available players don't project as clear "upgrades" either. Is Aaron Hicks better than Joey Gallo? Maybe, maybe not. It's very hard to see anyone who is available or allegedly available in trade as a clear upgrade to who we already have unless we're willing to pay a significant prospect price. I actually think some of the upgrades we need will come as a result of guys returning from injury. Lewis is a clear upgrade at 3d and will upgrade the lineup playing every day and hitting in the 3-6 holes. Polanco is additive on offense in the top 6 spots once we figure out how to play both him and Julien every day (hint, give Polanco some innings at 1B and 3B in the rehab, and put Julien at 1B with Kirlloff in LF a couple of times this week to see how it works.) Stewart and Theilbar should be upgrades in the bullpen over Sands and Pagan/Balazovic when they get back. We've got to put Kuechel on the roster by 7/31 or lose him - is he an upgrade over Maeda? Can Maeda go to the bullpen? I think the best way for the Twins to upgrade is to play the guys they have and keep the young productive guys like Kirilloff, Lewis and Julien in the every day lineup once everyone is available. That may mean losing Gallo (I think Kepler's .267/.330/.522 over the last 30 games/90 ABs saved his job), and it may mean either sending Wallner back down or choosing between Castro and Solano unless someone is hurt. Still, hard to see any other way to upgrade without a huge prospect cost. It looks to me like that's a cost we can't afford after last year's trades.

Very difficult decision to handle properly with a prideful guy who has been a good player until this season. I that's why I like the idea of putting him on the IL. That gives you the option of sitting him down and telling him that the team just wants him to take the time to get himself right so he can help the team later in the season during a playoff drive and in the playoffs. The Twins can make him feel good about his place on the team long-term. Between the IL stint and a rehab in AAA, you probably keep him out until early to mid August. That gives you a chance to see if Wallner really can play at the MLB level and hopefully confirm that Julien and Kirilloff belong the Bigs. Also gives you a chance to see if Polanco can stay injury free. You open up a spot at the end of the month by losing one of Kepler or Gallo hopefully, and also have someone in the background in case you have another injury. It's tough when Lewis is ready to come back but that's the problem for another day.

This kind of an interesting idea. You put Polanco or Julien at 1B, with the other at 2B. Kirilloff plays LF/1B, with Wallner/Kepler/Gallo at RF and DH. That puts a strong left-handed bat on the bench every game between Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Kepler and Gallo, with the other four in the lineup. Polanco, Kirilloff and Julien play almost every day. Solano and Farmer hold down third-base for now with Castro in a CF platoon with MAT. Could be tough against left-handed starting pitching, but then you bring in Solano and Farmer and sit two of the left-handed hitters. My view is to keep playing Kirilloff and Julien as much as you can even against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handed pitching, either Solano or Farmer plays 3B, and the other can potentially can be the DH if you wanted to sit two of the left-handed hitters. Key is it does require Buxton to go on the Il to make room for Polanco. If yo want to balance a little more between right and left hitters, or even just do the right thing, trade or release Gallo and call up Chris Williams (my choice) or Andrew Stevenson. Now you have plenty of right-handed hitters if you want to do more platooning and help the team against left-handed starters, the current biggest weakness. Effectively, take the same roster we have now, put Buxton on the IL, move Gallo out, and replace them with Polanco and Williams.

Easy answer. Yes, a thousand times yes.

Well, that's interesting. And perhaps a refreshing change. Just a night off for Buxton or a harbinger of a more permanent move to the IL?

Agreed, and you could have Julien to LF over Gallo. He's the one that should go first IMHO. Plus, LF is easier than RF for a guy who has had TJ surgery.