LA Vikes Fan

This actually answers a question that I had- is Buxton as bad a DH as it looks? Seems as though he is. I have to think playing 2 out of 3 games in CF is a better way to go with him. Some guys just have a hard time as a DH. Buxton May be one of those guys.

Please dear God, no. Same guy. Hot streak then disaster. If he's stays this good through end of July? Maaaaybe....

I tend to agree. His knee is robbing him of the three things that make them so special, his speed, defense, and power. It's an unusual combination and it requires a good base to pull off. He just doesn't have that base now to either run or form the solid back side while swinging. I'm not sure though that putting Buxton on the IL makes room for Kirilloff though. Assumedly, Celestino would have to play centerfield on a daily basis and you still have the logjam at !B, LF and DH if you bring up Kirilloff. Maybe that frees up a few more DH at bats for him but that's about it. I think the real choice here is between Larnach and Kirilloff, one up and one down, losing Garlick, demoting Miranda, or exposing Gordon so both Larnach and Kirilloff off can be on the team. Before the season I would've said that's an easy choice, simply lose Garlick. But with the way he has hit LH pitching this year, it's hard to not keep him around. Three weeks ago I would've said that's an easy choice, demote Miranda, and then Miranda turned into one of our best hitters over the last three weeks. The bottom line may be that Kirilloff failed to perform when given his opportunity and he will simply have to wait until someone gets hurt or goes into a prolonged slump before he gets another.

Assuming he's really back, there shouldn't be that big a problem finding him ABs. Essentially, we have 7 players for 3 positions if he returns - Arraez, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Sanchez (when not C), and Garlick, Miranda or Gordon (one of those three has to go to give Kirilloff a spot) for 1B, DH and LF. I would Catch Sanchez 4 days a week, Jeffers the other 2 (or even consider moving Jeffers to AAA to work on his hitting), but not DH Sanchez when not catching. That leaves Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Celestino, and Garlick or Gordon for LF, DH and 1B. Arraez plays only against RH pitching with Kirilloff at 1B and Larnach in LF or DH with Celestino getting the other. Celestino plays CF when Buxton sits/DHs and occasionally in RF for Kepler. Garlick starts as the LF/DH against LH starters with Arraez at 1B and someone from the Larnach/Kirilloff/Celestino/Miranda group in the LF/DH spot. There is a path to playing Kirilloff 4-5 days a week. The losers here are Jeffers becoming the true backup Catcher, Larnach not playing every day, and either Garlick, Mirnda or Gordon gone with the other two not getting anywhere near as many at bats. That means you only do this IF you think Kirilloff will play/hit better than Gordon, Miranda, Larnach and Jeffers. Where it really becomes crowded is when Lewis is ready to come back. he frankly has played better at the MLB level than Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Miranda and Jeffers. Lewis should have first call on ABs over all of that group. Good problem to have but injuries will probably solve it for us.

You have to think an IL stint is coming for Duffy. I watched him yesterday and he couldn't throw strikes with his curveball. The Jays just didn't even consider offering at his breaking pitches. They then jumped all over his fastball, even if it was 94 with some movement. He can't pitch his way out of this.

I'm not a huge Baldelli fan but I actually see him trying to react to the lineup issues. He called for a sacrifice bunt in the late innings today and he is definitely trying to manufacture runs with Correa out and Buxton and Polanco both hurting and not hitting. I think he's done a decent job with an undermanned bullpen. Overall, I'd give him a B/B- for the year so far. Not great, but not bad.

I think Polanco is playing hurt with a bad ankle. He doesn't complain but you can see him favoring the ankle when he gets fooled on a swing. I could easily see him going on the 10 day IL either when Correa comes back with Arraez moving to 2B and Miranda the full time 1B, or when Lewis comes back. It would probably be the best thing for him,

I don't know about you guys, but I am enjoying the ride so far. I just have to be careful not to think this team is better than it actually is for my own emotional health. I think this is a solid team, not great, not even very good, but very solid. Should be a very fun summer and I think we have a better than 50/50 chance of being in the playoffs. Who would've thought that after last year? Let's face it, we are one guy short in all three major categories and we need a top-end guy in each. The starting rotation is a #1/2 starter short, the bullpen desperately needs two late inning arms (I think Alcala can be one of those two), and the offense desperately needs a middle of the order bopper or for Buxton to be that guy and a high OBP guy to add. The fun part about the rest of the season is that we may actually have or be able to trade for or develop all of those guys. We have the prospect capital to get a Frankie Montas type starter, relievers tend to be the one thing you can trade for at the deadline and get actual help, and between Lewis, Miranda, and maybe even Kirilloff, we might have that extra middle of the order bat or high OBP guy we desperately need. Who knows, maybe even a miracle will hppen and Miguel Sano will come back with a .260/.325/.550 second half and be that middle of your bat. Stranger things have happened. Hey, it's been fun so far. It could be a fun summer baseball for this team.

I was hoping Archer would improve over time, but I really question if it's going to happen. He just doesn't have the control one needs to make his arsenal of pitches work. It just doesn't work to have to throw 80-85 pitches to get through 4 innings for a guy with good stuff and Archer no longer has good stuff. He has to pitch to contact, induce weak conduct and throw 10-15 pitches for 5 or 6 innings to have any chance. He just isn't getting any better with his control and he won't be a passable starter until he does. Hey, we can't expect a lot out of a No. 5 starter but Archer isn't even making that mark right now. I think Archer is the guy Paddack was supposed to replace by now. Instead, I see Smeltzer as his replacement once Gray and Ryan are back, hopefully within a week for Ryan. I wonder if Archer can provide value in the bullpen given his inability to throw enough strikes. I hope he can, we need the help, but he isn't inspiring a lot of confidence. Second half rotation - Gray, Ryan, Ober, Smeltzer, Winder/Bundy/Archer, with the two losers either in the bullpen or released. I think the hope is Winder hits the #5 spot, and we keep one of Bundy or Archer as the #6 starter/long reliever, I don't see much of a trade market for either Archer; Bundy may be tradable as the second player in a package with a good but not great prospect to a mediocre team for a #3/4 type starter. .

Thanks for the interesting information. Sounds like we’ll see him again after the AS break between healing and a rehab assignment. the other thing I find interesting is the search for someone to blame. The FO, the manager. Maybe the team made a perfectly reasonable move with a guy who played CF in the Arizona fall league, who was hitting and showed great promise, and we just got unlucky? It happens. Let’s focus on the game and the team rather than blaming guys doing their job fairly well this year. Not every bad thing is someone’s fault.

Chemistry is one of those ephemeral things that is very hard to measure but actually seems to make a big difference on sports teams. I guess is like any other group effort at work; that effort tends to be more successful if the participants get along well and really work for the group rather than for their individual glory. For some reason, this team seems to have good chemistry and that tends to create success (or is it the other way around?). I think that's a very important part of their success so far this year. What's the big difference? I would say adding Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson playing somewhere else. I also think losing Eddie Rosario last year killed the team in the clubhouse because I think he was their leader. Correa has taken over that mantle.

I concur. It looks like Buxton is playing through an injury. His swing is off. Maybe a 10 day IL stint would help?

We could still get that 3 days a week We could still get that 3 days a week, and I don't think that Lewis would be a huge downgrade given that he showed himself to be a solid glove at SS. Urshela part time at 1B would also improve the defense on that side of the IF.

I was going to say the same thing. The thing that impresses me is the change in Kepler. I've been one of his biggest critics here but I may have been wrong. Watching Kepler use the left side of the field and hit lefties has me hoping that he might be a .260/.350/.425 hitter. That guy can hit 5 or 6 every day for a contending team and is a very valuable guy when you add in his very good to elite defense. Popkins has also apparently helped Sanchez hit better by using the opposite field. A .235/.290/.450 hitting catcher is a good thing if he is even a tick below average behind the plate. Now he just needs to help Urshela, Polanco, and Jeffers...

Why not Arraez as the everyday 1B for the rest of the season, at least against RH pitching? Urshela has played 1B in the Minors and either he, Garlick or Sanchez could be the RH half of that platoon. Lessens the need for Miranda, who could go back to AAA for some work, leaving a spot for Lewis who can play 3B when Urshela is at 1B or resting, a day a week at SS, a day or 2 a week in LF, and a day at DH. Plenty of room for Lewis to play at least 4-5 days a week. What about Kirilloff? We may need to write him off for now. He isn't really hitting much in AAA outside of one game and he isn't hitting for power at all. Another surgery wouldn't be a surprise although this may be a much mental as it is physical. I feel for the kid but I think his chances of helping the Twins this year are not looking very good.

I agree on Lewis and Maeda with a twist - I think Maeda will come back as a key bullpen piece for 2022. I live in LA. When Maeda was with the Dodgers he would start for 1/2 to 2/3 of the season and then be shifted to the bullpen for the remainder. He was a great bullpen weapon during the stretch run and playoffs, reliable late inning guy who could close. That's the role I'm hoping he fills for this year's Twins.

I couldn’t agree more. What the Astros series should have shown us is that the elite teams do everything necessary to score runs, not relying on just one approach. It’s great to see the Twins start to do the same thing.

I agree with your basic analysis, but I think it is flawed because it's based upon traditional thought that your starter is going to play every day. That isn't the way modern baseball works and I think if you look at the positions that Lewis could potentially play there's at least 4 to 5 games a week for him assuming 6 games a week. So, assuming 6 games a week, here's how it could easily work: 3B - Urshela plays 3 or 4 games a week, Lewis the other 2 or 3. SS - Correa plays 5 games a week, sits or DHs the other, Lewis plays SS at least once a week. 2B - Polanco plays 5 games a week, either Lewis plays one game a week or Urshela moves over to 2B once a week with Lewis then playing 3 days a week at 3B. LF - Larnach 4-5 games a week, Lewis the other 1 or 2. DH - Once every other week. Put all this together, and you have Lewis at 3B 3 or 4 days a week, SS once, and 2B/LF/DH once or twice and all the sudden he's playing at least 5 out of every 6 games and getting some reps at SS, albeit limited reps. None of the starters has their time significantly cut because they are going to get those off days anyway except that maybe Urshela is playing one less game a week. The people that are losing time are Gordon in LF, Celestino but he'll still get 2 or 3 games a week in CF and 1 or 2 in RF, and the Larnach/Sanchez group at DH maybe loses 1 game a week. Arraez is the everyday 1B at least against RH pitching. He may not start against LH pitching but that has nothing to do with whether or not Lewis is on the team, that's because he doesn't hit LH pitching very well. The other factor to consider is players have to develop more than just the glove tool, they have to develop the hit tool at the MLB level. By playing Lewis roughly 5 games a week he will get 20-25 at-bats a week and develop that hit tool, all at the expense of a guy who really is never going to be more than just a utility player, Nick Gordon. That how you get him in the lineup.

Good article in the Athletic about how the Twins' players took the Lewis demotion. The gist of it is that they weren't happy but "understood" and they expect him back in the short to medium term. Here's a link, not sure if you can get the article if you don't subscribe to the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3321067/2022/05/18/royce-lewis-demoted-minnesota-twins/

I think we play Lewis 3 times a week at 3B (instead of Miranda/Urshela), 1-2 times a week in LF (instead of Gordon or Garlick), and once a week or so at SS to give Correa a DH day. You can add a DH day for Lewis. I really don't think this is that hard. I don't see Urshela as an everyday 3B even with his great glove. He had a .720 OPS last year and has a .610 OPS so far this year. He was better in 2019 and 2020, but 2019 is the year of the juiced baseball and 2020 is 150 ABs/174 PAs. The Yankees saw him as a high end utility player. I frankly think they're right. Now, the plan may be for Lewis to get some reps at 3B and LF in AAA and return to the Twins in 2 weeks when the roster composition changes. I don't like that plan but I would understand it. The idea of playing him for the rest of the year in AAA to get SS reps makes no sense to me.

Well said. I just don't see any particular reason why Lewis can't get the "experience" he needs at the other positions at the MLB level. He isn't displacing any particularly good player. At 3B, Urshela is an outstanding glove who simply cannot hit very well. He is the utility player the Yankees thought he was. In LF, both Gordon and Garlick have severe limitations at the plate and neither is a particularly good outfielder. We also don't have a full-time DH so we have places to get at-bats for players either Lewis displaces or for Lewis himself. Bottom line, play the guys who have earned playing time. Lewis has earned playing time on the Twins. Urshela, Gordon and Garlick have not. I'm not including Miranda because my assumption is that the moment Larnach is ready to play Miranda will be in AAA and until then he will rarely, if ever, see the field other than maybe at 1B against LH pitching, Urshela and Gordon are utility players, Garlick is a AAAA player, and Miranda is a AAA player (at the present time). Lewis at least looks like a MLB starting caliber player in his small sample size. He should be getting a larger sample size until he proves himself to be something else. This is just dumb and not well thought out.

I can see where you and I differ - it's Lewis v. Urshela at 3B and Lewis v. Gordon/Garlick in LF. I agree that Lewis is not an upgrade from Correa by any stretch of the imagination, he's a downgrade. I think he's a slight upgrade from Arraez because he can hit same sided pitching and Arraez can't, and Lewis can actually competently play in the field, but I wouldn't waste Lewis at 1B. The big disconnect for me is why isn't Lewis playing 3B instead of Urshela and/or LF instead of Gordon or Garlick? He should be able to play close to as well or better in the field and he so far has shown himself to be the far superior hitter and athlete. No scholarships. Either Urshela, Gordon and Garlick produce or they sit or get cut when someone else produces. Lewis is producing, all three of them are not. They sit or, in Garlick's case, get DFA'd and sent to St. Paul since it isn't likely anyone else will want a 30 year old OF who is a liability in the field and can't hit RH pitching. Why would we need to protect Gordon's playing time in the OF or keep Garlick around for those 20 – 30% of overall at bats that are against Left-handed pitching instead of keeping up a player who has shown the ability to hit, field, and run? Winning organizations find a place for that guy; they don't send him to AAA because it might be difficult to find him at bats. They find the bats at the expense of players who are not performing as well. That's what we should be doing. Now this entire rant may go out the window if they send Lewis to AAA for a couple of weeks, have him play a couple days a week in the outfield and a couple days a week at both second and third base, and then bring him up and wind up playing him five days a week in some combination of shortstop, third base, second base, and left field. This is what winning teams would do to get an exciting player who improves the team on the field. Actually, winning teams would do this at the MLB level but obviously that's not going to happen. As I said earlier post on the subject, what this tells me is that the Twins are not committed to winning this year but are looking at this year as a developmental year for next year. If that's really the situation, and it sure is beginning to look that way, time for me to go back and follow the Dodgers and Angels this year and I'll check back in with you guys next season.

The disappointing thing about this move is that it shows you what the FO and manager think about this year's team – that it isn't good enough to be competitive. Sending down Lewis is justifiable IF your primary goal is to position the team for NEXT year and you want Lewis to get reps at SS to be the SS next year. It isn't justifiable if your goal is to win THIS year unless this is a short term 2 to 3 week situation to play him at 3B and LF in AAA so he can come back up as an every day super utility player like Chris Taylor is with the Dodgers. That's my hope; but it doesn't look like that is the plan. I find this very disappointing in part because I live in LA and watch a much better run team in the Dodgers who position themselves to be competitive every year. Hate them if you will because they have money, I get it, but that is in the main reason there always competitive. The main reason is that they do a very good job of balancing short-term success and long-term planning. They're probably the best in the MLB at doing that. There is zero chance that the Dodgers would send down Lewis in this situation. They would either making creative trade to open a spot for him, think trading Urshela for a non-40 man prospect or two, or they would bite the bullet and DFA someone who is unlikely to contribute to the long-term success of the team like Garlick. They would then find the at-bats for Lewis to keep him on the field at least four days a week as he learns his trade at the MLB level. That is what we should be doing and we are not. That should tell all of us is that the FO and the manager does not believe in this year's team. I frankly suspect that lack of belief is going to filter down to the current squad. The players know who should be on the team and who should not. Doing things like this is not the way to keep players like Correa from exercising options to leave or keep the other players happy and productive. I will take all this back if in fact the plan is to have Lewis down in AAA for two or three weeks, bring him back when the roster composition shifts to 13 pictures and 13 position players, and they then find him a place to play every day either at 3B (Urshela simply doesn't hit well enough, looks like the utility infielder the Yankees thought he was), or LF with Larnach the primary DH. Or if they sign Correa to a longer team contract so Lewis is going down to AAA to learn to be the team's primary third baseman, or anything else that gives Lewis a chance to play most days and learn his craft at the MLB level. If not, frankly it's time for me to turn my attention to a better run team in the Dodgers or, unbelievably, the new management for the Angels who actually seem like they're competent enough and are turning that team into a contender.

I understand the decision but can't agree unless the idea is for Lewis to spend the next 2-3 weeks getting some reps at 3B, and maybe some at 2B and LF. I'm ok with the idea that he would come back up in a couple of weeks to play a super utility role, ala' Chris Taylor of the Dodgers, Otherwise, this doesn't make sense to me unless we're playing for next year rather than this year.

Guys, the question is do we want to win this year or use this year to position ourselves for next year? I think we can do both. We can actually win the division this year (or get a wield card) and maaaaybe even a playoff series. At worse, we should contend for the playoffs. To me, that's better development time for the young guys than more time at AAA. To win more, you keep your best players. Here, it's 11 guys plus 2 catchers. Lewis is one of our best 11 players; hell he's one of our best 8 or 9 players. So are Celestino and Larnach. They stay. Miranda is not. He goes. Garlick? Probably not. He's a RH DH/corner OF. Least important spot on the team. He's at risk. Urshela? Close to the line but ahead of Garlick because he can actually field an important position. This should be a meritocracy. Lewis, Larnach and Celestino got an earlier than expected opportunity and they've performed pretty well, Miranda, not so much. We want our minor leaguers to know that if they get an opportunity and perform, they can make the club. We can find 5 games a week for Lewis at 3B, SS, 2B, LF, and DH. If that's at the expense of Garlick or Urshela or Gordon or kills Sanchez' DH at bats, so be it. Play the guys who have shown they can play. Those 3 have so far - get them on the field in MLB, not AAA.