LA Vikes Fan

Really interesting. Matches the eye test - Polanco has gone from a line drive, contact, doubles hitter to a more fly ball power hitter who sings and misses more. Also, kind of explains why he has so much more trouble against a high velocity guy like Greene yesterday but is much better and more dangerous against more "normal" 90-96 mph fastballs. I'd really be interested in whether there are similar changes in Kepler's profile. He's changed things you can see like being much better at going the opposite way. I'd be really interested if there was any data on the changes he's made to go from borderline unplayable in May and June to borderline All Star status in July and August. Both guys needed to change their approach to stay relevant and productive and both did. There's a lesson in there for us as more than casual fans. Sometimes you do have to see if there's changes in the process and then trust the process, or at least give it a chance to work.

I think this tells you less about Luplow v. Stevenson and more about whether they think Buxton is an available CF option this year. The reason to keep Stevenson is that he can play an above average CF. Luplow cannot. Stevenson can be put in for defensive purposes after Rocco engages in one of his all pinch hitting managerial innings and winds up without the services of Castro or Taylor, or Castro has to go in and play 2B or 3B. Stevenson is then available to play CF at a pretty good level for the last couple of innings. Luplow is more one-dimensional and doesn't give us that same level of defensive flexibility. Oh, and he can steal a base.

I have to admit I'm in the fearful Minnesota sports camp of not believing we've "won" anything until it actually happens. Once we clinch, I'm right there with you - give Julien, Kirilloff, and Wallner all the ABs they can handle against LH pitching as long as we can find enough ABs for Solano and Famer to keep them on rhythm for the playoffs. I would shut down Correa once we clinch and play Farmer every day at SS so Correa can refresh, give Lewis a day off here or there with Polanco at 3B, etc. The Angels are starting 3 LHs this coming weekend and all 3 of them are average or better - Anderson, Detmers and Sandoval. I hope we can reduce the magic number to 2 or 3 against Concy and then the young LH hitters can hit against those 3 guys.

Guys, it is waaaaay too early to reach any meaningful conclusions about how Julien will hit against LH pitching over his career. He's had the princely sum of 43 Abs against LH pitching in the Bigs. The kid is all of 24 years old. Nor is now the time to "give him a chance" against LH pitching given that his slash line in those 43 ABs is .209/.209/.233 (.442). This team should be in the playoffs with a chance to win a series. Rocco is absolutely correct to play for TODAY. That means swapping out Julien for Solano (or Farmer) when a LH pitcher comes in to improve our chances of winning today. The Vazquez pinch hitting spot was an anomaly because Correa needed a full day off. That won't happen in the playoffs. Spring training and the early regular season next year is the time to work on Julien's hitting against LH pitching and, for that matter, the same is true for Kirilloff and Wallner too. They do need experience against major league lefties in game situations; but they don't need it in September or October, 2023. Early 2024 is just as good if not better - less pressure and facing better pitching before injuries and time take their toll on opposing staffs. Solano is 35 - will he be back next year at age 36 and, if he is, will he be able to repeat the career year he's having in 2023? Gallo will be gone if there is a God. Polanco will be on his last year or two and will be on the IL once or twice in 2024. All of these guys will get a chance against LH pitching next year. It just won't be now. Once they get the next 200 plus ABs against LH pitching over 2024 and 2025 we can get a better handle on whether they can improve against good LH pitching (I think Wallner already is). You're right, we need to give them that opportunity. We just don't need to give it to them now while we're trying to win a division and make some noise in the playoffs.

This is all premature. Hopefully we will clinch the division with at least 7-10 games out play. Thereafter, give Julien ABs against LH pitching, also in any blowouts . Repeat this in spring training and then at the start of 2024. In other words, don't write him off against LH pitching yet but don't give him ABs against LH pitching in meaningful situations or in the playoffs. Frankly, same for Wallner and Kirilloff.

I don't think anyone is going to trade an "elite" pitching prospect for Larnach. That's why my view is that you test the market to see if there's someone that you think has value that can be unlocked. Two good examples are the Ryan trade and the trade of Spencer Steer. Neither was considered an elite prospect but the Twins and Reds saw something and now both appear to above average MLB players. Target that kind of player at the AA or A level on a poor team who is rebuilding their offense. Rooker was never going to be a starter on a good team. His only chance was to go to a bad team and get an opportunity. The jury is still out on him but he might be a decent to good MLB hitter. I see Larnach in the same way. He could be a good MLB hitter but only if he gets a full year of playing very day in the Bigs. The Twins are in a contention window and can only do that with either Larnach or Wallner. We've chosen Wallner. Perhaps the As, Royals, Rockies, etc. see Larnach's potential the same way and would be willing to gamble a 20-30 prospect in the low minors to get a guy who will be controllable for a few years and isn't even arb eligible so he'll be cheap for those few years. The Twins get a development prospect that may pan out but may not. That's the kind of trade I'm advocating. If we can't get that, keep him for depth.

I understand the logic behind this, but have one caveat. I think we need to take in account the very real possibility that one of the current young IFs is going to move to the OF to get everyone into the lineup, especially if Polanco is retained. I think there is at least a 75% chance that Polanco's option is exercised given his production and the cost, and the way the Twins just seem to score more runs when he's in the lineup. Add in Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, and next year's IF is full or even 1 oversold. And that's assuming Castro and Gordon are both full time OFs or Gordon is possibly gone In 2024 you have to add Miranda back into the IF mix and possibly Lee or Severino by mid-season. That's quite a log jam of players, 8 of whom have had at least some MLB success. I expect that one of them will become a LF option in 2024, probably either Kirilloff or Lewis. It's also possible that Lewis may move to CF. Now the OF is really oversold. My view is trade from depth to fill weakness or to get long term prospects. I wouldn't trade Larnach just to trade him, but I would trade him for longer term pitching options like guys in A or AA with upside. I also might trade him for a stuck or stalled talented AA or AAA guy who pitches or catches, but that's less likely. If that's not available, keep him for depth. But don't hesitate to pull the trigger if a decent trade is available.

I think the move with Larnach is to trade him to a non-contending/rebuilding team like Pittsburg, Oakland, Washington, Colorado, etc. That's where he will have a value - a team that will live with an up and down year in the hope that another 500-600 ABs will help him smooth out the rough edges and become a quality hitter on a pre-arbitration contract in his prime. We need to do it now because he's 27 and his "future value" is already starting to wane. I think Kepler and Polanco's options are both exercised, as they should be given their performance, age, and the cost. I just don't see Larnach having a spot over Kepler, Buxton (assuming he comes back), Wallner, Castro, Taylor (he'll be re-signed), or even Gordon. Also, Lewis may need to move to LF to open a spot for Lee or Miranda (remember him? He was good in 2022). Trade Larnach this off season while he has value and give the guy a chance to be on a team that will play him through his development, What could we get? Not a lot, but I like the Tampa approach. Let's find a team with a couple of developing players at the AA level or lower that we think could be something in 2-3 years or a AAA/AA pitcher that seems to have talent but just can't seem to put it together. In other words, a risk with some upside. I don't think Larnach will get us an established MLB reliever. That we have to develop or buy on the FA market (like that's going to happen). Bottom line, trade him to a bad team for either prospects with a more distant horizon or for another guy that's blocked or stalled and see if you can do something with the return,

Interestingly enough, Pagan and Taylor are both worth 0.9 WAR with very similar stats this season. Taylor - 6-4, 3.00 ERA. 1.167 WHIP., 1 save, first year of a 3 year, $33m deal with SF, no longer with SD, left as a free agent. Pagan - 5-2, 3.38 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, 0 saves, 1 year $3.5m deal, free agent 2024. Rooker also no longer with San Diego, Medina in FCL (i.e. lottery ticket). One could convincingly argue that the Twins lost the trade in 2022 but are the big winners in 2023 since Pagan is here and performing, while the Twins weren't going to pay Rogers $33m over 3 years so he would be gone. With Paddack coming back, could be a very good trade for 2024 for the Twins. Just goes to show you that one shouldn't evaluate a trade (or a draft pick) for at least a year or so.

Agree with this except for Paddack. Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are the first 3. Ober is #4, may not be on the playoff roster for the first round, #4 starter if we get to a second round. Maeda is a bullpen guy from round 1 forward. If he is on playoff roster in round 1 it's at the expense of Winder. Paddack would be a nice addition to the bullpen IF he can pitch a few innings down the stretch in 1 or 2 inning spurts and show he can help in relief. fg he can, probably replaces Varland rather than Funderburk or Kuechel. Louie still has a home run problem and you just can't have a guy like that in the late inning of a playoff game. Maeda can be the playoff long man, has playoff experience. and is better than Varland. We don't really need Varland in the playoffs unless he shows he can be dominating in 1 or 2 inning stretches. He ahs to show he can avoid giving up HRs and his last appearance looked way too much like the 3-5 appearances earlier this season that got him sent down to AAA.

I think Bass player in a neo metal band that channels Metallica, but not one that channels Whitesnake or Van Halen due to the lack of a tattoo sleeve. Not glam enough for Kiss or Velvet Revolver. Has to play Bass because he isn't good looking enough to be the front man but looks serious enough to write some of the band's music.

I agree here. A team needs players who step up and shine in big moments to be successful in post season play. My best "pick to click" in that role is Lewis. He seems to thrive in big moments and you could see Cleveland pitching around him in the last series. That's the ultimate sign of respect from a really good manager in Francona. I also think that Kepler, Wallner, Jeffers, Julien and Solano have the talent and make up to have great moments or even a great series. I just don't see them carrying the team through a longer playoff run if we're lucky enough to get there and have that run. To me the big wildcards are Polanco and Correa. They both need to come up big. If they do, this team has the starting pitching to go places and might have the bullpen with the addition of Maeda, Varland, and Stewart's return to really compete. If they don't, I just don't see that we have the offense to do much more than maybe win one series, if that.

I actually was surprised at how not so horrible the data was. I thought it was worse. Take out Gallo, Garlick, Larnach, Taylor and Buxton and the only high SO people are the rookies Wallner and Julien. Both are rookies and you would expect their SO % to go down over time as they adjust to how they're being pitched. Gallo and Garlick are not on the Twins next year; Taylor and Larnach are iffy. Buxton is a complete question mark. The point is that you would expect to see improvement as a team next year just from the subtraction of some and the expected improvement of others.

Isn't that interesting and refreshing! No Gallo! Way to go, Rocco. Watch, now because I said that Julien will strike out 4 times and make 2 errors....

I think it's time to stop with the "Julien is a butcher at 2B and will never improve" vibe. He certainly started out as a butcher as do many young players first up to the bigs, and the stats and objective analysis says he's improved. Is he great? Not a chance. Is he better? Absolutely. To those who don't want to acknowledge what the objective data says about his fielding improvement, I can only say look again with an open mind. You're were right that he stunk on D when he came up. Players can and often time's do improve. Julien has and chances are, he will continue to improve in the field if he puts in the work. Oh, and climate change is real too. Conversely, his hitting hasn't been good for the last the last month. The league has adjusted to him, now let's see if he adjusts. By the way, Wallner hasn't looked so great lately either although he is adjusting. We can't expect all young players to come up and immediately excel like Lewis. Lewis is a rare breed. We have a quality young player in Julien with a lot of potential and years of low cost control. It would be foolish to trade him now IMHO unless we can get a Ober level or better young starting pitcher in return. That seems unlikely to me so I think the Twins should keep him, have him field 1000 grounders and throws a day in the offseason at 1B and 2B, and play for the upside.

I think you might have it right but I have a slightly different take. Looks like Buxton's return is not imminent so it's really two spots we need - one today or tomorrow for Castro and one Monday for Kirilloff, maybe both on Monday so Castro can use his paternity leave. Assuming no one is going on the Il, I would have predicted Castro for Luplow. Why call up Stevenson if you don't plan on him staying at least a few games? Did Luplow's HR win him another chance? I hope not, I'm still not sold. Gallo still can't hit but he can play 1B better than the rest of the crowd. With Buxton's setback, do we keep Stevenson to play CF or is Castro enough? Is there anyone who needs to go to the IL? Both Taylor and Julien have bad hammys and look like they aren't running well. My prediction is a little different. Castro up, Taylor or Julien goes on the 10 day IL or Luplow back to AAA (he still has options this year). AK up Monday for Luplow if Taylor or Julien is on the Il, takes a spot if both need an IL stint, or for Stevenson if Taylor is ready to play full bore. Gallo stays although Lord knows why. Stevenson stays to play CF until both Castro and Taylor are ready to play CF every day. One other thought. Julien has been really struggling the last 20-30 days. Even his stats over the last 30 games aren't good - .226/.336/.312 (.648), with 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, and 33 SOs in 93 ABs. He really struggled last night. Time for an IL or option re-set? He's not playing 2B and we have a lot of guys who are hitting better that can DH. Wouldn't shock me to see him as one of the odd men out for the next 2 weeks as we work through the roster crunch.

Breaking news, this just in .... This Scherzer guy is really good.

I looked up the rules and it says "A player who doesn't meet said criteria for postseason eligibility [on 40 man as of 8/31] can still be added to a team's roster in the postseason via petition to the Commissioner's Office if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list and has served the minimum amount of time required for activation. (For example, a player on the 10-day injured list who has been on it for at least 10 days, or a player who has been on the 60-day injured list for at least 60 days.) Players who are acquired in September or after are ineligible. I read that as saying the Twins could petition to put Stevenson on the eligible 40 man if they need to assuming the other criteria are met.

Andrew Stevenson and Brent Headrick are the 2 9/1 call ups for the Twins. Miranda goes to the 60 day IL to make room for Stevenson on the 40 man. Not sure this is what I would do but you have to give Stevenson credit for tearing up AAA better than anyone else, including Prato and Martin. Stevenson has a .916 OPS, 16 Hrs, 44 steals. I only wish he was 26, not 29, and that he hit RH rather than LH. Still, better in CF than Taylor against RH pitching and Taylor's bum hamstring is starting to hurt his fielding. It's time for someone else in CF. Castro is still gone and Joey Gallo is not the answer to this or frankly any other question unless it's who got the DFA.

Agree except on Grichuk. He has hit .165/.212/.351 since leaving Colorado and coming to the Angels. He had a .703 OPS for Toronto in 2021, followed by .754 and .821 in Colorado, followed by .563 since he left Denver. Sounds like a guy who is on the way down being propped up by the Rockies ballpark. No need for him. I'd rather have Martin. Grab Moore if you can, though. He's good. Lopez, maybe.

So say, the Reds, DBacks. Giants, or the Marlins - all wild card contending teams with priority over the Twins going into today's action - could take all of the waived players should they want to do so? Good thing we blew today's game then. If that's the case, and I believe you, we have very little chance of getting any of the quality pitchers like Moore or even Lopez. Cincy or SF will take the pitchers, Miami or AZ anyone they think can hit. All or at least 3 of the 4 are likely to choose before the Twins. Add in Cleveland making claims to block players going to the Twins, and it seems like there will only be leftovers when our priority comes up. I think there's only 5 max that are worth our time - Moore for sure, and then maaaybe Lopez, Clevinger, Bader, and Renfroe. Seems like we may get shut out on all those. Oh well, what could have been . . .

If I understand the rules right, the real issue is priority. Once you have been awarded a player, that team then goes to the back of the line the next players. So, for example, the Twins claimed one of the relievers, it will go to the back of the line and be very unlikely to get any of the other relievers or position players. So the key is the order of the claims because you're unlikely to get more than one of these players. For me, the order is relatively simple. Matt Moore is the best player of the group and it is not even close. He being a reliever also corresponds with the biggest need. Moore is first, and Reynaldo Lopez is second but a maybe. He has not been consistently good but we desperately need relief pitching. I wouldn't have anything to do with Cisneros. He is not good. If we get shut out on the relievers, I would rather have Harrison Bader than any of the other hitters. Hunter Renfroe is okay but a classic empty calories guy who doesn't run well, doesn't field that well, and doesn't hit in the clutch. Grichuk was pretty good in Colorado, but has been worse than awful since he left the thin air and played at sea level with the Angels. Unlikely to be helpful. Bader cannot hit right-handed pitching to save his life but is a 1.137 OPS guy against lefties this season. He can also run and field. So for me, It's simple. Under the rules, we are unlikely to get more than one of these players unless somebody is not interesting to any other team. The order is Moore, Lopez, Bader, and then Renfroe. Matt Moore is the guy we really want.

Watching Gallo bat is painful. He can't hit anything outer half because he refuses to adjust and hit to LF, and he can't time a breaking ball. It's frankly amazing that his stats are as "good' as they are.

I tend to agree but I don't think the Twins will call up Martin. I hope they at least put him on the 40 man on 8/31 or he won't be playoff eligible. In a perfect world, I would like to see the Twins put in claims for Moore, Lopez, and Bader in that order. If they get one, and it won't be more than one, they take Luplow's spot on the 40 man and if it's pitcher, they take Sands' spot on the 26 man or Maeda goes on the IL (I think his elbow ahs flared back up). I add Martin to the 40 man on 8/31, with Miranda going on the 60 day DL to create room, and add Varland and Martin as the 2 players on 9/1. I would waive Gallo today, or DFA him if they don't, so Castro can be on the 26 man after his paternity leave if that's necessary to create room. Who goes to create room for Kirilloff and Buxton when they're ready depends on performance, injuries, etc. and the situation when they're ready.

! just saw that the Yankees put Harrison Bader on Waivers. Worse against righties but actually much better against lefties - .355/.406/730(1.136) against lefties in 2023, but an awful .508 OPS against righties. Better fielder, runs better, and can play CF. Bader - 1.0 WAR, Grichuk 0.0 WAR. Do you guys like Bader better than Grichuk? I think I do.