LA Vikes Fan

Look, we signed Kuechel off of the scrap heap and got 5 decent innings in a win at home in a start against an average MLB team. That's a big win for the Twins. He'll probably get 2 more starts, one in Philly and one against Detroit. If we can split those games, another big win. At that point it's definitely time to stop tempting fate and get him out of the rotation. Kuechel reminds me of Dylan Bundy. He's not awful, has veteran moxie (whatever that is), and can give you a few decent 5 inning starts. Remember April 2022 when Dylan Bundy was a legit Cy Young candidate? Over time, he kills your bullpen because he can't go that 3rd time through the order, and his ERA/FIP/Sierra start creeping higher and higher until it's over 5. Hats off to the FO for getting him since we don't really have much else at AAA. He's better than watching SWR, Varland (best of the lot), or Headrick flail around at the MLB level while we hold our breath that they can keep us in the game for 5 innings. Still, Kuechel just is not even a back end MLB starter on a good team. He is classic veteran depth for a few starts here and there. Nothing wrong with that but let's not go crazy here.

Really?! I would be shocked if there is even 1 solid MLB starter for 2024 in that group and if there is, it's probably Larnach or maybe Prato. We're talking about a 1 year option for Kepler so the real question is which of those guys will be a solid starter in 2024, not beyond. Stevenson is almost 30 and previously failed with the Nats, Kiersey is 26 and just got to AAA (where he isn't hitting), Williams is now hitting at age 26 but has an over 33% SO rate in AAA, and Camargo is a catcher with an over 33% SO rate in AAA. Laranch has been spotty in previous tries and regularly injured, and Prato just got to AAA. If the question is do we keep Kepler in 2025, maybe one of these guys can be the replacement if they show well in 2024 during the inevitable call ups for injuries like Julien has or as a bench OF. For 2024, no way would I put trust in the idea that one of them will be a starting caliber MLB OF for a full season. And if they aren't, much as it pains me to write this, you gotta keep Kepler if the goal is to contend.

I agree that Polanco is the tougher call. He's still cheap - I think his 2024 salary is set at 5.15m. IF, and it's a big IF, he performs over the rest of the season like his career average of a little worse - say .265/.325/.425 with a solid to good glove- it's hard to replace that production for $5m. He's also a team leader and has been a clutch hitter. So where do you play him? I agree that in 2024 Julien will be the 2B, with Kirilloff at 1B and Lewis at 3B. Could Jorge learn 1B and the three of them basically share those 4 spots with some DH appearances if Buxton can actually play in the OF? That way one of those 4 is on the bench most games with Castro, Taylor or some other backup CF, and a catcher. Could Polanco learn to play LF? I think he could but given his leg issues, I'm not sure the OF is the best choice. If he could, solve the search for a RH hitting OF but now you take ABs away from Wallner unless Kepler sits against most LH pitching. Still, I think they will keep Polanco for at least one more year and work him out at 1B as insurance against injury or performance issues from Julien, Lewis and/or Kirilloff. Again, the issue is we really don't have any one else knocking down the door for a spot at the start of 2024. Lee is more likely a June callup if he performs at AAA. By then all kinds of things could happen that would make having Polanco a very good thing.

I've long been in the dump Max crowd but I do think they will pick up his option, particularly if there are metrics that suggest this recent resurgence might be sustainable. Why? Because WE GOT NOBODY ELSE FOR 2024. Your 2024 Twins OF without Kepler - it's uh, well, uh, hmmm, here are the options: Buxton - maybe but for no more than 100 games in the field, likely less. Wallner - has looked great in 82 ABs, classic small sample size but I say he starts in 2024. Larnach - maybe, but a career MLB slash line of .223/315/.380(.695) suggests we at least need a fall back if he doesn't work out. Taylor - nice 4th OF, not an everyday starter on a contending team. Pending FA who may want to go to a team where he can start if Buxton is going to play CF. Lewis - maybe, but last time in the OF, he tore his ACL. Not sure the Twins want him out there again. Gordon - maybe, but so far a half year wonder, hardly an established OF. Castro - nice UTL guy, hitting almost exactly where his career lines are - .247/.331/.376 (.706), 96 OPS+ this year, career .681 OPS, 89 OPS+. Sounds like a 4th or 5th OF to me. Gallo and Lupow - please no. IFs maybe turned into OFs - Polanco, Julien, Miranda - doesn't seem like a good bet. Maybe Polanco could do it? Other AAA OFs - Celestino, Garlick, Keirsey, Prato, Stevenson - a lot in their mid-late 20s (not a good sign for a "prospect"), high SO rates all around. Best slash line is Stevenson and he'll turn 30 in June, 2024. Hard to see a 2024 starter in that group. Frankly, hard to see a 2024 bench player there except maaaybe Celestino, with Keirsey and Prato an outside chance. The rest are AAAA depth. Free agents - does anyone really think the Twins will commit $15m a year plus to a free agent OF? I don't. To me, the Bottom line is that I hope Kepler's second half is who will be next year. Heck, I would take .240/.310/.440 next year from Max. We need to hope, because the Twins will exercise the one year option for a very simple reason - because we don't have anyone else we can count on to replace him. And, it's only one year so we can trade him at mid-season if someone else takes his job.

Comment from yet another history major - AceWrigley is right. in 1918-1939 the war just shifted to world economy, WWI never really ended.

While not adding payroll may have played a part, I think the main reason they didn't add is that the team isn't very good and they no longer have a surplus of prospects to trade. Adding a Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, or 32 plus year old reliever doesn''t get us to contention this year. Even more importantly, the team is being transitioned from the current core vets to a new younger group. You don't trade prospects when you do that. You need those prospects either to be in the first wave or to be in the second wave if the first wave fails. Think about it this way -what current vets on the 26 man will be here next year and in 2025 and why? I define vets as MLB 3 full years or more by end of 2023. Likely to be Correa, Vasquez (contract), Buxton, Lopez, and . . . Maaaaybe Polanco , maaaybe Kepler but most likely not, possibly Pagan and Theilbar if he lasts that long. All the rest will be gone. By mid-next year or at least 2025 one would expect the primary IF to be a combo of Correa, Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, Polanco and Lee with maybe Farmer as a UTL if one of those 6 is hurt or Lee isn't ready and Castro is in the OF. The OF is Buxton, Wallner, Kepler for maybe one more year, Larnach and Castro(?), maybe Gordon(?). We need OFs starting next year, can't trade any we now have. The pitching staff is Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varaland, and SWR (or Maeda for 2024), with Duran, Jax, Balazovic, Pagan, Moran, Thielbar or Floro and young guys or FA retreads filling out the bullpen. Jeffers and Vasquez are the catchers. So who you going to trade for a Pham, Hernandez, or RP? Not Larnach, Lee, Castro, Lewis, Balazovic, Varland, SWR, etc. And you can't trade the next wave guys like Festa, Raya, Camargo, Severino, Williams, Miranda, Oliver, DeAndrade, etc. because then you have no Plan B if a part of that first wave fails. Bottom line to me is threefold, (1) the current team can win the division with what they have, (2) the current team is very unlikely to do better than win one playoff series even with a couple of rentals, and 3) we got nobody to trade that we won't need in the next 2 years and probably don't even have enough guys for our own needs. Was money an issue? Probably. I think the talent level on the team and in the organization is the bigger issue.

Luplow shows as on the bench for today's game. Assume he is the Buxton replacement on the 26 man roster.

I remember Lupow as a pretty good hitter with Cleveland. Probably only played against lefties. Meh move, but still better than Gallo.

You're right. I clicked on the article to see which 5 would be included. Shocked Correa isn't on the list.

The expected move happened. Ryan to the 15 day IL, Keuchel up to replace him. I think this will help Ryan be more effective when he returns. Looked like he had a pretty dead arm although the designation is a groin strain. Not sure what Keuchel will bring but he deserves the shot as the most productive AAA pitcher in the last month.

The expected happened. Ryan to the IL, Keuchel up in his place.

I had the same thought but then I looked at his numbers since he was traded from Baltimore to Houston at the deadline last year. Here they are: With Houston 2022 - .176/.258/.364 (.622) - 7 doubles, 8 home runs, 22 RBIs in 165 at bats, 186 plate apps. (Ouch!) With Chicago Cubs 2023 - .234/.299/.336 (.635) - 12 doubles, 4 HRs, 28 RBIs in 235 ABs (263 PAs). (Not Good) Against LH pitching 2023 - .223/.306/.351 (.657) - 6 doubles, 2 HR, 15 RBI in 141 ABs (255 PAs) (Still Not Good) Id love to upgrade from Gallo, not sure Mancini is much of an upgrade at the plate, probably a downgrade in the field. I would rather call up Larnach or Williams for those ABs.

Interesting that Castro is not in the lineup two days in a row, I understand playing MAT, Kepler and Wallner in the OF, but I wonder is Castro has ever played 1B. Might be an improvement over Gallo in the field, definitely an improvement at the plate.

This. I'm fine with no trades. Larnach was the guy most mentioned and I rather have him than trade him for an older rental. We will need him next year when Gallo, MAT, and possibly Kepler is gone. All of this is fine IF they move out Gallo, and play the younger players going forward. It's not ok if we are treated to lots of ABs given to guys like MAT, Gallo and Solano.

Ugly stuff.

And . . . Nothing. Who says the trade deadline isn't exciting?

Guys, Pham has a groin problem. Left a game on 7/20 because he couldn't run. Has only played in 3 games fully since then and pinch hit twice. 3-14 in those appearances. Let's not trade for another injured guy . . .

Take that group and add Polanco, Castro, and Vasquez and you actually have the look of a fun team. Everyone else is surplusage unless you believe in the latest Kepler hot streak. I so much want to believe but I just can't... Wouldn't it be fun if the Twins went with this lineup the rest of the season: OF - Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson (acquired by trade), Larnach, Castro, Wallner, Buxton, with 1 of the last 2 as DH IF - Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Polanco, Farmer, Lewis (Solano until Lewis comes back, then gone) C - Jeffers, Vasquez. That's right, no Kepler, Gallo, MAT, or Solano. If you keep Kepler, lose Castro or Larnach. Add Finnegan to the BP and lose Moran.

Take that group and add Polanco, Castro, and Vasquez and you actually have the look of a fun team. Everyone else is surplusage unless you believe in the latest Kepler hot streak. I so much want to believe but I just can't...

Only Thomas is really interesting, and only if the FO think this breakout season is real and not just a career year. Maybe a Larnach, Headrick or Culpepper and a fringe 30 prospect could be enough. Pham and Raley would be an OK get, but again only if we are getting rid of Gallo as part of a Larnach trade. Frankly, Thomas makes sense because he is a longer term asset. Raley is a 1.5 year guy assuming we exercise his option, and Pham is a pure rental. Hard to get excited about trading Larnach for that unless the FO has given up on him. I haven't; i think Larnach could be an average to above average regular if he could get consistent playing time.

Sadly, you're right.

I suspect that the FO has decided that this team isn't good enough to sacrifice prospects for short term vets. Maybe they move Larnach but I'd be surprised to see a trade of any of our better prospects to get a vet to fill a hole like a RH hitting OF or a BP piece. They might have been on the fence until last weekend but now I doubt that short term moves are coming. This team will ride with what we have. By the way, I agree. with that thought except for one thing - please move/DFA Gallo so Wallner and/or Larnach have a place to play.

Raley is interesting because of the option. A straight swap of Larnach for Raley or with the Twins adding a low level flyer type prospect makes some sense. Pham makes no sense. He's 35 and on an expiring contract. He's the type of "win now" move the Angels are making. This year's Twins are not a "win now" team. They're a group who is hopefully looking at a 3-4 year window. A guy like Pham isn't part of that. I'd be very disappointed if we gave up a potential player for a guy like that. Have you heard anything more about a Twins/Nats deal? I heard they were scouting the AAA group. Both Kyle Finnegan and Lane Johnson are appealing depending on price, and Jordon Weems could be a decent addition if one believes this year is real as compared to 2021 or 2022.

You may be right. My point is we need to find that out now, not next year or the year after. Open up space by trading/DFAing Gallo. Put Wallner and Larnach in the lineup 4-5 days a week, including against LH pitching, and see how they perform. With Kirilloff out, play Kepler and Larnach at RF and 1B or bring up Williams - don't waste those ABs on a combo of Gallo and a 35 year old Solano. If they blossom, great. If not, you know they aren't part of the future and you move on. Playing a guy like Gallo or Solano (or even Kepler) that we know isn't part of the future does us little good now and absolutely no good going forward. On the other hand if the FO is convinced that Larnach isn't part of the future he should be actively shopped now. Put him in a package with Gray or Maeda, or even Farmer, to improve the return. My basic point is that adding at the margins this year does nothing but leave us as a marginal maybe playoff team at best. I think the only path to improvement is in our younger guys; we won't be trading for a guy who really improves the current team and we don't spend that kind of money in free agency. I just don't like being in the slightly above mediocre middle and I don't see another way out.

To me there are two evaluative facts that really help determine what the Twins should do. First, it's becoming more and more obvious that this team is not a WS contending team in 2023 and they are not one or two decent vets away from being a contender. Second, they have some interesting/exciting younger players that need MLB time and ABs to improve our chances of being a contender in 2024 and beyond. If you start there, the approach should be pretty obvious. Sell vets that don't factor in next year, both those that have value and those that are blocking guys you think really can help in 2024 and beyond. Do - Sell Gallo immediately. Trade Gray if you think the return is better than pick 35-40 in next years draft. Sell Maeda if you aren't planning on a new contract or don't think you can re-sign him. Trade for prospects preferably high minors pitching. Don't - trade prospects for vets on expiring contracts or trade prospects like Wallner, Larnach, etc. Don't give up much for a veteran middle reliever. Last weekend showed that this team just doesn't have the chops to be much of a contender. Live or die with the guys that will help you next year - Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach, Williams, Castro, Balazovic, Varland (if you trade a starter). To me, that's how you get out of this .500ish cycle and create a potential winner, not by trading for another Floro, promoting Kuechel, giving Gallo and Solano time at 1B while Kirilloff is out, keeping Larnach in AAA so MAT can get ABs, etc.....