LA Vikes Fan

IF this happens, it points out the continuing flaw in the roster - the lack of a backup CF other than Castro. There is no reason Castro should play LF except in a pinch. Larnach needs to play and Margot hits LHs fairly well, albeit with absolutely no power. Moreover, if Larnach falls off then you have to give those LF ABs to Kirilloff. The only reason Farmer should play 2B more than once a week is because Castro has to spell Buxton in CF. Otherwise, Castro should be the everyday 2B with Farmer the 26th guy/defensive replacement. We need a guy who can play CF behind Buxton. Keirsey is the obvious answer at least in the field. So we're back to the pre-existing question. How do you get Keirsey up? Has to be in place of Kirilloff or Margot unless there's an injury. And you have to drop someone from the 40 man (Boushley? Canterino to 60 day IL?) to give him a chance. Still would like to see Keirsey up in place of Margot but that's a pipe dream at this point.

As pointed out above, Cleveland will come back to the pack if only because their schedule turns from 29th easiest to 8th toughest while the Twins go from 8th toughest to 24th easiest. I think the division will still be there for the taking in September. I agree with your analysis of where we have been but I think the Twins will be a better than middle of the pack statistical offense by year end. The addition of Lewis alone will help and also get Castro in the lineup at 2B most every day instead of the Julien/Farmer platoon. I expect a 2B split of 80% Castro/ 20% Farmer until Lee is ready. Remember, Castro is one of the best hitters in the Al against LH pitching so there isn't a need for the strict platoon. I think Larnach is now healthy and settling in as the starting LF against RH pitching, and much as I'd like to trade the guy, Margot is actually been hitting LHs well lately and is up to .287/.344/.370 against LHs this year. We also have out two biggest strike out artists now in AAA in Wallner and Julien. Finally, with Miranda now out of a daily position I expect to see him as the DH regularly and at both 3B and 1B on occasion, with Jeffers behind the plate more often to get his bat in the lineup over Vasquez since he won't DH as much (more 2/1 ratio than a 1/1 ratio). That will improve the offensive production at DH and IB. Also, better bats on the bench most days since one of Kirilloff, Santana, Miranda, and Jeffers will not be playing most days. Bottom line should be that most of the Lewis ABs going forward should take the place of ABs for Farmer, Santana, and Vasquez when the lineup changes ripple through. I see better offensive days ahead.

Agreed. Wallner has not hit well at all in AAA or MLB this year. Let's not forget how bad he was for the Twins earlier this season. He needs to hit consistently well for 6 weeks or so in AAA before he should be a consideration for the Twins. I don't think he is even on the radar before August 1 or so and then only if he's hitting well.

While I agree that a DFA of Margot would be a better result, I think we all saw this coming. I actually think this isn’t going to change the batting order a lot. Castro will wind up playing. 2B almost every day, and Larnach and Margot will be the platoon in LF now that Larnach’s turf toe has healed enough for him to play in the field. That opens up the DH spot and I would expect Lewis to be there 30 to 35% of the time while Miranda plays 3B, with Miranda there another 30 to 35% of the time. I’m hopeful that Miranda will play 1B a couple of times a week as well and I think he will be a part of the DH rotation. Lewis coming up will cost Miranda, Santana, and Kirilloff some ABs, and may cost Buxton and Jeffers some time at DH. We basically have four guys playing three positions with Lewis and those three playing 3B, DH, 1B, I would expect to see three of the four in the lineup almost every day, so there won’t be a lot of DH and bats available for anybody else.

Agreed on Varland. I frankly think that his only chance of pitching at the MLB level this year will be out of injury desperation or, more likely, out of the bullpen come August. I know starters are more valuable and make more money so I completely understand giving him every opportunity to show he can be a major-league starting pitcher. Still, it's looking more and more like he's not going to be able to do that, at least not this year, and he's already shown us that he could be a very impactful high leverage major-league reliever. We need another high-impact arm in the bullpen. I think Varland's best shot of helping the Twins in 2024 is going to be as a backend bullpen guy the last couple months of the season.

I agree that a phantom, I mean minor yet requiring attention, injury is the most likely outcome here. Yet I actually wonder if in all seriousness there might be a market for a trade of Margot. He's actually hitting .300/.364/.333 over his last 15 games with 30 AB's, 3 Walks and only two SOs over that time. Yes, no power and a majority of those at bats have been against left-handed pitching. Still, if he can even stay within 30 points of the batting average and OB P numbers those are not bad numbers for fourth outfielder or short side platoon guy. His defense in the corners is still pretty good, not so much in center field, and he can still run a little. He's hitd even better over the last seven games so arguably he is finding his footing and becoming more the guy he's been in his career, a .260/.310/.390 (.700) type guy. In other words, basically a league average hitter who does not play a premium position. those guys are hugely valuable but they do have some value and often times that value is magnified when a team has injuries and needs a short-term solution. Isn't that the kind of guy that contending teams trade for when they have outfield injuries and don't have the high minors prospects or aren't willing to risk their season on unproven talent? I know both Atlanta (contender) and St. Louis (always thinks they're a contender) have had significant injuries in the outfield. I'm sure there are other teams in the same boat. Margot might be the kind of guy that they would be willing to acquire as a stopgap for the rest of the season or until someone with a significant injury can get back. If I were the Twins, I would be actively shopping him right now in return for a B level AA or high A prospect, or maybe a couple of A ball lottery ticket types. The Twins "replenish the farm system" and the other team gets someone who potentially helps them right now. He doesn't cost much since the Dodgers are paying most of his salary and I bet the Twins would be willing to eat $1 million of what's he's still owed or send the blocked prospect who doesn't have a high upside to make a trade work. To me, that's the long term solution. So I say we trade Margot if we can, make LF a platoon between Kirilloff and Castro, and make Miranda a 1B/3B/DH starting a minimum of four days a week. Opens up the logjam for Lewis, and helps train Miranda to be our regular 1B next year since all we got is him and Kirilloff for that spot in 2025. Hey, if this is all just a fantasy, DFA Margot and accomplish the same thing.

This is a great idea. If you make a move now, we actually can choose when Festa starts. Monday is an off day so you can have Ober start Tuesday and bring back Lopez and Ryan on regular rest Wednesday and Thursday in New York. Essentially, you simply skip Paddack’s start this time through the rotation. You then run into short starts Saturday against Pittsburgh. So, the opportunity is there to put Paddack on the 15 day IL today and have him miss effectively only two starts in three turns through the rotation with Festa getting those two starts, one on the road in Pittsburgh, and one at home against either Colorado or Oakland, depending on whether you pitch Festa on Friday or Saturday against Pittsburgh. Paddack is then back for the next time that spot opens on June 18 after an off day on June 17, which gives the other four guys an extra day on that turn. I think this is a great idea and the perfect time to do it. Actually be disappointed if the twins don’t do this in the next couple of days. Paddack is good for about 25 starts this year max. Let’s give him a break now, maybe another break in early August and have him pitching those starts when he’s as rested as possible.

If Julien goes down it will be because he isn't hitting, not because of his defense. Julien is a +3 OOA according to Baseball Savant and that matches the eye test - he's a little above average. Julien's problem is his sudden inability to hit and the fact he OBP has dropped all the way to .309 with a 34% SO rate. Still, Rocco was quoted a saying he thinks guys like Julien should try to work out their hitting problems at the MLB level so he might be staying. If Julien stays and no one gets hurt, they either got to drop Margot, Kirilloff, Larnach, or Miranda. Margot is hitting better so maybe he's tradable? If not, still an easy call for me - Margot goes.

I agree with the posters that think Miranda should be the primary 1B option 3-4 days a week, at 3B 1-2 days a week for Lewis, and an occasional DH. Basically playing 5-6 days a week. I also agree that the Twins (over)value Santana's defense and it isn't likely that Miranda will get an every day run at 1B. The DH spot is a little crowded so its hard to fond room. How about LF? I know he's an IF, not an OF, but is there any chance he can play out there? It's not like Kirilloff or Larnach are great defensive OFs and Margot is a relatively slow singles hitter. Castro may need to see time at 2B if Julien is the move to get Lewis up. Probably a bad idea but I'm wondering if it's worth a shot.

Gotta agree here. He's overpaid at $10M but that was the market when he was signed. That's a sunk cost so let's not get in the sunk cost fallacy by worrying about the contract. It is what it is. Vasquez provides real value defensively when he plays, seems to be a good mentor for Jeffers and is helping his defense, and provides leadership. I think catcher is one of the three positions on the field what defense trumps offense, with shortstop in centerfield the other two. I agree that what Vasquez brings is not worth $10 million a year, more like 3 to 5 million a year, but that's not the relevant issue. The issue is do we have someone else who's better or is there someone available who could provide more? I would argue there is not anyone in the organization at this point nor is there anyone available was going to provide better play. I think Vasquez is these worth keeping around this year and probably next year unless Camargo really breaks out. It sucks that were overpaying him but he does provide value that isn't easily replaced.

I'm hoping this is at least something Twins are considering although it is risky. The issue is how do you get Lewis and Miranda in the lineup together four days a week if Lewis is only going to play third base or DH? I think it's important to have Miranda in the lineup most days because I think he is our fifth best hitter after Lewis, Correa, Kepler, and Jeffers, right on par with or better than Buxton. I'm hoping that the Twins are at least considering the idea of finding a creative way to get Miranda in the lineup five days a week. We can start by having him play third once or twice a week when Lewis is the DH and DH himself once or twice a week. The issue is that it's going to be hard for him to get that other two days a week in the lineup at 1B if Kirilloff and Santana are both still on the team. Having him play 2B or even LF could really help. Right now the opening is at 2B since Julien is struggling so much at the plate. I'm sure his defense will be a little rough but I do think it's worth a shot at least in practice to see if he can be adequate. I frankly feel the same way about LF. We should at least be trying him out there in practice to see if he could be serviceable because a right-handed hitting LF is something we have needed for a while on this team. Bottom line or me is we need to find him a place to play since guys with a .770+ OPS don't grow on trees and do not appear to be growing on the Twins bench or on our AAA affiliate.. We need his bat in the lineup.

Old Nurse has got it right. Kepler had the big homerun year in 2019, the year of the juiced baseball, and then fell off the table because he tried to hit everything high in the air. That led to Max becoming the king of the pop up and can of corn flyball. It also led to many of us calling for him to be cut from the team by 2022 and the first part of 2023. We certainly don't want him to go back to that swing. Max is doing exactly what we want him to do and maximizing his athletic talent to the benefit of the team. His highest and best use is as a relatively high average and strong on base percentage hitter with speed who has doubles and occasional homerun power and plays strong defense. I would much rather have him hitting .290 with 15 to 20 homeruns rather than have him hitting .230 with 25 to 30 homeruns. The former profile is a solid middle of the order hitter; the latter hits 7 or 8 and is always in the discussion of whether the latest AAA phenom should be called up to replace him. I'm finally convinced that the Kepler change is permanent. I hope we can get him to sign a 2 – 3 year extension.

Thanks for the info. Unfortunately, it makes it pretty unlikely that Margot will be DFA'd. Maybe traded to the Braves who need an OF?

He needs at least 2-3 games in the field for 9 innings before he will be back. I'm hopeful that those games will be the next 3, but it's more likely they will be spread over this week along with a game or 2 at DH. I'd love to have him back for Houston this weekend. I think it's more likely that he's back for the New York series starting June 3 and that's if everything goes well in AAA.

Agreed. I also think we will know a lot when Lewis starts playing the field in AAA. It will be interesting to see if it's anything other than 3B. If it's 2B, Julien on the edge of a demotion. If it's 3B, the choice is probably between Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff unless the FO is really ready to DFA Margot. I hope so, but it seems unlikely. If Lewis is playing LF, more likely Margot is on the edge. Having said that, highly unlikely that Lewis plays the OF. Question - would anyone pick up Margot's contract if he was DFA'd? If I remember correctly, his salary for the year is $10 million and the Dodgers sent $6 million of that cost so his cost to the Twins is $4 million. Anyone picking him up on waivers would have to eat the remaining portion of his contract but I'm not sure if it's the full $10 million or just a prorated share of the $4 million Twins portion. I'm not sure how that works. In either event, it seems unlikely that anyone will pay that so maybe the Twins could DFA him and sent him back to AAA. Margo may not want to elect free agency because then he forfeits the contract, again if I understand this correctly. It seems to me that if I'm understanding this right, there may be a real possibility that the Twins could DFA Margo and keep him at the AAA level. All of this though is probably wasted space because someone will get hurt and that will open up the roster spot.

Probably not, but it does make sense as a way to keep Miranda in the everyday lineup. So does playing Lewis in LF, but that makes too much sense to actually happen.

You're probably right. Makes too much sense.

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do; Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston) Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10) Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B, Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF. Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher.

Seems like the first 2 moves over the next 2 weeks or so are relatively easy. First, Lewis up for Julien, with LEWIS playing 2B. Give Lewis 3-4 games at 2B in AAA to get ready and keep Miranda at 3B for now. Second, bring up Keirsey to play LF against RH pitching and CF when Buxton is off or the DH. Castro or Larnach can play LF against LH pitching. DFA/trade Margot. He adds nothing and has had his chance to show what he can do. Which turned out to be very little. The hard one is what to do in about 2-3 weeks to a month when Lee is ready and back up to speed. I would consider trading or DFA'ing Farmer, but only if we're confident Lee or Castro can play SS once or twice a week. If not, one of Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff needs to go. Frankly, we'll probably have an injury to create space. Lee plays 2B, Lewis moves to 3B, and Miranda becomes a 1B/3B/DH. We will need Miranda at 3B since Lewis will be sitting or DHing at least twice a week, and we need to keep Miranda's bat in lineup. If that means Santana becomes a late inning defensive replacement, starts twice a week guy, so be it. Miranda is one of the more consistent hitters we have. Castro becomes more of a 4th/5th OF than a super UTL, and only plays in the infield occasionally. So, absent injury, this is what I would do; Lewis for Julien (this weekend, Friday in Houston) Keirsey for Margot (next week, meets team in Pittsburgh on 6/7, or in MN on 6/10) Lee for Keirsey, Larnach, or Kirilloff, whoever hits worse (week of June 10). Starting lineup by ASB is Lewis at 3B, Correa at SS, Kepler in RF, Jeffers at C/DH, Larnach at DH/LF, Buxton in CF, Lee at 2B, Miranda/Santana at 1B, Castro and either Keirsey or Kirilloff in LF. Farmer/Keirsey/Kiriloff - 2 on the bench and on the team, Vasquez the #2 Catcher.

Just saw a new and intriguing idea. It might be time for Julien to get a AAA reset. How about Lewis up to play 2B/DH, with Castro also ant 2B, and Julien down? Keep Miranda in the lineup at 3B every day to hit.

You're right about how hard it is to move from AAA to MLB. Maybe even harder when you're 27 and just now coming into your own in the Minors. Still we need a good fielding back up CF and there seems to be an opening given the struggles of both Margot and Kirilloff. Might now be a good time to give Keirsey his probably one and only shot at the MMLB level?

Probably is. We need another CF by Sunday and Keirsey is tearing up AAA. Maybe Keirsey up for Margot or Kirilloff over the weekend?

Alcala up, Boushley back down. No word yet that I saw on any one replacing Jackson on the 40 man.

I don't agree and maybe my post lacked clarity. For the Twins to be successful we need to blend established players with up and comers while developing those up and comers. I'd love to be a team that filled in holes with established veteran FAs but this ownership won't pay for that. I actually think we have the established vets supplemented by close to no doubt youngsters that could be the core of a championship team with Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Kepler, and Jeffers in the field, Castro as a UTL, Lopez, Ryan, and Ober in the rotation (with Paddack and SWR close), and Duran, Jax, plus Stewart when healthy as late inning relievers (with Staumont an intriguing possibility). That core can compete in the playoffs IF supplemented by solid to a little above average guys. In our case, that supplement needs to play 1B, LF, 2B, and DH, be another late inning reliever, and another mid-rotation starter. You can see the possible late innings guys in Stewart, Alcala, and maybe Staumont, with Paddack and/or SWR as the mid-rotation starter(s). The field regulars are the hole and Santana, Farmer, and Margot are not the answer. I don't think we can trade to fix this hole given the prospect cost or this FO's track record on trades. I think Julien and Miranda can help fill two the lineup holes, and I am cautiously optimistic that Larnach may actually be learning to hit breaking stuff to be a third fit. I also think that Santana and Margot are NOT part of the answer and in fact are in the way of us finding out if the young guys can be part of that answer. This is the season to find out because the competition is getting better and the core vets are getting older. My idea is to (1) play Julien, Miranda, and Larnach basically every day, (2) Send Kirilloff to AAA for Keirsey (gotta have a backup CF and Castro and Margot aren't good enough), with Kirilloff hopefully finding it so he is available to replace one of the first 3 if and when they falter, (3) bring up Alcala (they did today) and make him a late inning guy only with Sands back in long man role he's actually kind of good at, (4) sit Santana and Margot as bench guys, defensive replacements, and/or 2 days a week guys against LH pitching (I would actually lose Margot). The key to me is to play Miranda, Julien, and Larnach 5 days a week for the next month at least or even better through the ASB to see if they can be the solid to above average regulars we need. Lee and hopefully Kirilloff or Wallner will then be available and hopefully hitting at AAA if those 3 can't hack it. Do that now and we have the best chance of a team that is competitive with the big dogs in the second half. The current lineup is not.

Preach! Totally agree on Keirsey. I think we have an open 40 man slot after the DFA of Jay Jackson. No one has been added to my knowledge. Am I wrong? We can also put Topa on the 60 man Il - he won't be back until July at the earliest. I think we can call up Keirsey today for the Texas series. The Rangers are starting RHs today and tomorrow, with a TBD for Sunday. We can all up Keirsey for Kirilloff, put him in LF tonight or Saturday and in CF Sunday with Buxton as the DH (day game after night game). Let's do it!