LA Vikes Fan

Interesting concept, but I think the "second leadoff" position - otherwise known as the 9 hole in the lineup - is perfect for a player of Vasquez' abilities.

Couldn't agree more. Time to fire Rocco and hire a billionaire. Is either Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos available?

Castro and Martin don't play the ball hit to Lewis properly to cover second with that shift and we don't get the double play. Wind up giving up the run. We need a new SS; Castro can't play there. Dodgers just DFA'd Ahmed Rosario. He's hitting this year and plays middle IF including a decent S.S.. I think it may be time for a claim and, if we get him, Martin back to AAA.

A positive spin on this is that giving starts to guys like Matthews is exactly what this team should be doing. I started the year thinking this team was one year away from really contending and that this should be the year to get as many innings as possible for guys like SWR, Varland, etc, and as many ABs as possible for guys like Wallner, Julien, Miranda, etc. Then I saw them doing well after that poor start started to think let's get veterans so we can compete deep into the playoffs. The injuries we've recently had reminded me that were probably not quite ready for prime time in that way and that this year should be about finding whether we have the players to fill our three or four holes so that we can try to fill them from free agency if we need to. Two of those holes are the number four and number five starting pitchers. I'm all for giving Matthews a shot, and I would want it to be more than one start unless he gets blown out on Tuesday. It looks like SWR is developing into a strong mid rotation starter whos upside may even be higher. We still need another solid starting pitcher and I'm not sold on Chris Paddack or Varland. I think both will wind up in the bullpen eventually. I would love to see both Festa and Matthews get some regular turns down the stretch so we can see if either one of them can be all long-term starter beginning next year.

I like the piggyback idea and last night’s performance only reinforced my bias in favor of that approach once again, Varland looked great for about three or four innings, four innings last night, and then the wheels completely fell off. I think it is highly unlikely he is even going to be a “five and fly“ starter for the rest of this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. Putting him at the end of a rotation that has two other young starters who rarely go more than five innings is just going to be too much for the bullpen. I think we’re going to have to devote two people to the number five starter spot and go with a seven person bullpen. Maybe that second pitcher can be Randy Dobnak or Josh Winder, although I would try Zebby Matthews. The theory would be that both Varland and the second pitcher don’t pitch on any day except the fifth starter spot and are expected to give the team at least seven innings between them. I think it’s a solution much more likely to be effective than hoping that Varland morphs into a guy that can go five or six competitive innings regularly. If he has a start where he can go six innings, that’s great, and the second pitcher handles the last three.

Doubtful. Most likely only available Saturday or Sunday, not both.

Just saw that it's a Grade 2 Teres strain. Out for "weeks if not months". Ugh. Here's link - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/twins-joe-ryan-teres-major-strain-injured-list-possible-season-ending.html Scott Blewett up for Ryan, Varland as 27th man, lee to IL, Farmer up. Why not Topa? This could get even uglier.

Have you heard or seen anything? Last I saw was 2-3 week type thing.

We'll know a lot more about Varland's fate after tonight's start. If he pitches fairly well, he's the #3 starter until Ryan comes back. If he stinks like he did earlier in the season, he goes back and doesn't come back up until it's time to put him in the bullpen. We also have to cover the KC game on Tuesday the 13th and neither Ober or Varland will have 4 days rest by that time. I think the first move is Ryan to the 15 day IL, Topa up today or sometime this weekend. The second move depends on Varland tonight. If he is good, he's back up to start on the 14th or 15th with the 13th likely a bullpen game started by Winder or Ober on 3 days rest. If Varland gets lit up tonight, Matthews is up to start on the 13th against KC, Ober goes on the 14th and we stay in a 5 man run with Varland or Matthews as the 5th starter depending on who shows better. We put Matthews on the 40 man if we need him by DFA'ing Dobnak. It's very unlikely anyone else will take his contract and he will accept an assignment to AAA to keep the contract. Best thing would be for Varland to pitch tonight like he has in AAA the last few times out but we do have options if he doesn't.

It's my understanding that if Varland comes up designated as the 27th man for a doubleheader they can send him back down and call him up without waiting 10 days. That's a "free" move. I agree, he is a better call than Dobnak now that we need a starter for Tuesday. The problem is that if he pitches Friday he won't be ready to come back by Tuesday so we'll have to find someone else. I think maybe Matthews on a piggyback might be a good approach. Give Matthews basically one or two times through the order, then Winder, and hope you've covered 6 innings. I think Matthews going much more than once or certainly twice through could be a recipe for disaster once MLB hitters see his stuff. His AAA results show that he isn't a finished product yet.

I think you're probably right here. Varland comes up as the 27th man who pitches the second game Friday. He then goes back to St. Paul. SWR goes Saturday, Festa Sunday, Lopez Monday. Ober goes Wednesday so that leaves Tuesday to cover. Too soon to bring Varland back so I think they probably go with either Winder or Dobank as an opener in a bullpen game. The other wildcard here is when they bring up Topa. You have to think that either Dobnak or Winder goes back to AAA to make room unless they decide to put Ryan on the IL. Based on the incredibly small sample size so far, the obvious choice to go back down is Dobnak. My guess is they bring Topa up for the Cleveland series so my guess is that Ryan goes on the IL today or tomorrow for Topa and one of those two will be the opener next Tuesday. They're also going to have to make room for Okert soon. He has to come back from the bereavement list after seven days, which I think might be Tuesday the 13th but hopefully is Wednesday the 14th. Topa up today or tomorrow, then Okert for Winder or Dobnak next Tuesday or Wednesday, hopefully on Wednesday the 14th after Winder starts on the 13th. and then Varland up for whichever one of Winder or Dobnak is still on the roster so he can start next Friday the 16th. The other potential wildcard is whether there's a waiver claim or recently released guy they can pick up to start Tuesday. That would probably mean a DFA of Dobnak, since no one will pick up his contract and he can then be reassigned to AAA. Fun times.

Yeah, if he could play a good CF he's be really valuable. As a part time LF, though, his lack of any power makes him pretty average. I would love to see the Twins send him to a Winter league and do nothing but play CF all winter, or at least train for the position the whole off season. That way he can be the RH hitting 4th OF we need and we don't have to have Margot or his equivalent on the roster next year.

The rotation is good for 3 days, then we're happy if we get 4 or 5 strong innings from SWR and Festa. You're right, that puts a heavy strain on the bullpen. I was hoping Dobnak would be the answer in a long relief role, but that ain't happening. I'm hoping that Varland is the 27th man Friday, starts the second game, and shows that he can be effective for at least two or three innings. Thereafter, I think we have to try to use the bullpen in such a way that Sands and Varland are available for 2 to 3 inning stints as piggybacks to SWR and Festa for the rest of the way. We can get Varland on the 26 man by sending down Dobnak. I'm a little less worried about the lineup. I think were overlooking how good Miranda has been and continues to be, plus Santana has really provided a good bat for the 6 or 7 hole. Margot has been better than I expected the last two months and I'm still hopeful that Kepler will find his power stroke again. I think the lineup will be fine once we get Correa back. The key is getting that rotation to be good enough and I think the key to that is getting a piggy back in place for both SWR and Festa. That and no injuries. An injury to one of the top 3 starters could be catastrophic.

I don't think we need to go that route since we have an off day Thursday. So, going on normal rest, the rotation for Cleveland could be Ober first game Friday, SWR or a 27th man in the second game, skip Festa, Lopez Saturday, Ryan Sunday. That does catch up with us against KC though on Mon-Weds 8/12 -14, where it would have to be Festa, SWR, and Ober. I suspect that Varland comes up as the 27th man for the second game Friday, SWR pitches Saturday, then Lopez Sunday, followed by Ryan, Festa, and Ober, Mon-Weds. against KC.

I think Martin is showing himself to be more of a short term asset at the MLB level than is Lee. I think Lee goes back to AAA when Correa is ready although that could reverse if Lee has a good week. He will be playing SS until Correa is back. Dobnak is a fun story but he just doesn't throw enough strikes to be very effective. He's back in St. Paul as soon as Topa is ready or if they make a move with Varland. I expect Varland up as the 27th man for the doubleheader Friday starting game 2 as a tryout. He ahs the chance to stay up if he pitches well, accommodated by a SWR 10 day IL stint for shoulder fatigue or a demotion of Dobnak. Any more news on when Correa will be back? I did read that he progressed to jogging at Target Field and took a full batting practice session. The only steps left are being able to sprint and a rehab game or two in St. Paul. Correa is hardly a speed burner anyway, I'm not sure the sprinting is all that critical. If he can hit, he's worth playing even if he can only run at 80 or 90%. I'm hoping that he'll be back in St. Paul this week, DH on Tuesday, SS on Wednesday, DH on Thursday, and back with the team on Friday for the Cleveland series.

Varland should be the 27th man on Friday, starting the second game of the doubleheader. Let's see him in a starting role before making a final decision. We are going to need at least one more starter this year even if Lopez, Ober, and Ryan stay healthy. SWR seems to be hitting a wall, Paddack's return date is unknown, and Festa is a complete crapshoot. Dobnak hasn't looked great since his return and I shudder at the thought that he might get a start. Varland looks like the best bet right now since Zebby is hardly dominating AAA. I could easily see Varland getting 3-4 starts through the rest of August into mid-September. He can then transition into the Bullpen my mid- September because we should only need 3-4 starters in the playoffs. We can and should try for the best of both worlds with him.

Agreed. I also think he's been more situational in the field - going all out and taking risk in late and close situations, while being a little more cautious in more routine situations. That may just be maturity and it may be Correa's influence because that's what he does. Hopefully Correa can teach Lewis the same skill, particularly when running the bases. I would expect to see Buxton back to his more "all out, all the time" self if this team makes the playoffs. It's all good. Buxton should hit 100 games and may hit 120. Can't argue with that.

We'll see if Ober can get beyond KD when he starts against them the week of the 12th.

Wow. As someone who remembers all three players you mentioned, that is ugly.

They will get nothing and like it.

It's understandable that they shield Wallner from LH pitching. Here's his slash lines the last 3 years - 2024 (9 ABs, .111/.200/.111), 2023 (42 ABs, .119/.196/.286), 2022 (17 ABs, .118/.167/.176). Admittedly a small sample size but pretty abysmal. I still think that they need to find out if he can improve against LH pitching. The only way to find out is consistent ABs. Maybe hit him 8th for now until he can ramp up. The problem is for whom? Margot is hitting lefties well and we want Miranda, Lewis, and Santana in the lineup. The obvious answers are either a combination of rest days for those 3 and displacing Kepler, or limiting Margot. The second one ain't going to happen so it's really a choice of who do you want sitting against LH pitching - Lewis, Miranda, Santana, Margot, Kepler, Wallner. Has to be one of them. Hard to blame Rocco for sitting Wallner - he is the obvious choice.

I'm not sure I agree with this, Larnach is actually pretty athletic and not a bad OF. Wallner lumbers a bit but has a strong arm, should be a solid RF. Martin has the athletic ability to be a superior OF. I think he just needs the reps out there. And that's without counting Castro who's actually a pretty good OF and has some real speed. He's an OF/UTL next year - Lee is going to take over at 2B. Actually our worst defensive OF is Margot and he won't be with the team next year. None of those guys is as good as Kepler, but all are better than Margot, and Larnach, Castro, and Wallner all hit better than Kepler. I think our OF defense will be as good next year as it is this year IF Buxton stays healthy and could be better if Martin improves and/or we get a glove first 4th OF. I do agree that trading Larnach might have been a good thing if there was a market. He and Wallner have pretty redundant skillsets and Wallner looks like he has a higher hitting upside. We got Martin after the top 100 luster had worn off so trading him wasn't a great option. He's worth more to us than to anyone else. Good thing SWR is working out. That trade for Berrios is actually looking pretty even or maybe even in the Twins favor.

Thanks.

Does anyone have accurate stats on his K rate pre and post demotion? I did a quick calculation based on the stats I saw and saw 17ks in 29 PAs (58.6%) before demotion, and 19 SOs in 49PAs (38.7%) since his recall. The post recall % is still too high but at least it's better. The key with Wallner is whether he can get his K rate down to 25-28% and still hit .250 plus with the same power. The jury is still very much out on that. We should play him basically every day, including against LH pitching, for the rest of the season. Let's see if he can be a full time #4 or #5 hitter going forward hitting after Lewis. You can't find that out unless you give it a long term try.

I think there's a bit of a difference between starting and relief opportunities. If you actually look at the deadline moves there really wasn't much quality starting pitching moved outside of Fedde, Flaherty, and Kikuchi. I absolutely would not trade Lee, Jenkins, or Emma for any of those three. I'm even a little surprised that Keaschall was dangled but Fedde does have another year so I guess I can of see it. Can't see anything even in our top 10 prospects for Trevor Rogers. When you look at the returns these teams got, I understand why the FO was hesitant to match. On the relief side, the prices for Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez were astronomical for a reliever. No way do we pay that. We could and should have tried to get Luis Garcia, Gregory Soto, or even Ryan Yarborough. They we available at much better prospect prices and all would help. To me, the bottom line is where you think the team is in terms of competing for a WS spot. If we're close and 1 or 2 guys can get us there, you go for it and overpay, and worry about the fallout later. If not, you only do something that makes long term sense. I don't think this team is 1 or 2 guys away. I think we're at least 3 or 4 in the form of a strong middle of the order 3-5 bat to go with Correa hitting 2 and Buxton 6, a #2 type starter, a LH late inning reliever, and a solid RH hitting OF to platoon with Larnach. It's possible that Ober will become a true #2 next season, moving the need down to a #4 (much easier to find). It's possible that Mirnada/Lewis/Wallner will become a strong 3-5 hitting group, or that Emma, Lee, or even Jenkins can fill that role soon, and that Martin can become a solid RH OF platoon option. We don't have the LH reliever in the system. I still think this team is one year away because I think those things can only happen with experience and MLB ABs, including playing Wallner against LH pitching. That's the way to play it this year. If it looks like those things can work, then overpay for a high end LH reliever over the winter.