Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market. And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals:
1/22/20: Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm. JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm. Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually.
1/31/21: Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm. This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm. But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount.
3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out. Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm. Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag.
1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm. After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm. This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical. Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail.
It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks. And there are still several big names out there. Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again?
#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..
#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.
#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm
#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm
#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.
#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.
History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.
Who’s it going to be?
Soler or Martinez seem like better bets. But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?