AlwaysinModeration

Thanks Nick, for the great series and overview recap. I’m trying to wrap my mind around the fact that you did this 12 months ago and concluded Buxton was the most valuable team asset, and now he isn’t even among the top 20. That just doesn’t make sense to me, any way you slice it. Using FanGraphs, in terms of career value, Buxton has produced the second most WAR (19) on the team, behind only Correa (32.4). So in terms of what he is capable of producing, based on what he has done already, he’s second on the team. In terms of projected production moving forward, he is expected to produce somewhere in the 6-8 WAR over the next five years he is under contract. That’s much less than Lewis, Correa and Lopez are projected for, and basically in line with Ryan, Julien, and Duran’s projections. And prospects Jenkins and Lee have higher upside than 6-8 WAR, but are uncertain to reach their potential. But for everyone else on the team, Buxton is expected to produce more value for the team; more than Kepler, Polanco, Jeffers, Varland, Ober, Martin, Festa, etc. He’s under team control for the next five years, which is more than a bunch of guys on this list like Kepler (1), Paddack and Polanco (2), and Lopez and Jeffers (3), plus a bunch of guys who have four years of team control remaining. Now, it is true that he is owed $75mm over the next five years, and he didn’t earn his $15mm salary last year. I get why you have soured on his value as a team asset. But he’s produced over $150mm in value for the team in his career to date, and is projected to be one of the team’s top producers going forward, even factoring in his poor year last year. I don’t think he’s their top asset, but I think it’s wrong to conclude he isn’t in their top 20. He could easily post a 4 WAR season this year, like he has two of the last three years. I think I’d put him in the 6-10 range. I just don’t see his bad year dropping him from 1 to outside the top 20.

If this is your cover letter of your application to work for the Twins FO I’m not sure it’s getting picked up off of the pile.

Dane Brugler’s most recent mock draft has Jayden Daniels going 7, McCarthy going 22, and doesn’t have Penix in the first round.

You can say that again!

Vikings finish behind the Jets due to SOS, so even though the Raiders won, they finish with the 11th pick. Wonder if the Bears had beaten the Pack if they would have moved past the Jets and finished with the 9th pick.

As long as they were alive for a playoff spot, I wanted them to win. But now that they lost… Jets win, moving the Vikings up to the 11th pick. Raiders and/or Bears’ wins could move them into the top 10 or top 9 pick. Penix seems like a realistic draft pick in that range.

I think I have a different definition of “back breaking”

Through 125 votes, which is an estimated 32.6% of the expected vote totals: Beltre, 123 votes, 98.4% Helton, 103 votes, 82.4% Mauer, 102 votes, 81.6% Wagner, 100 votes, 80% Sheffield, 95 votes, 76%

Never mind…Manaea to the Mets for 2/28.

The rules of the election state that the “elector shall sign and return the completed ballot no later than December 31.” By December 26 there were already 50 ballots made public on the tracker. So the late-voting electors absolutely can look at the early trends before they cast their vote.

How about they sign Sean Manaea? One thing I’ll note that these guys have in common: Lopez-Ryan-Ober-Paddack-Varland-Woods-Richardson - Festa - Canterino - Raya…. …All right handed. Only lefties of note are Prielipp.and Headrick.

But….the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray, so is their pitching depth now deeper, or shallower?

Excellent point, and Polanco has a $12mm option. So Castillo would cost ~ $10mm this year and next year, then $21mm each of 26-27. That does change the math quite a bit and may mean he would be within the realm of possibility. He would cost more than Polanco, though, that’s for sure.

Woot.

Is it possible that Pablo is top five…and Buxton is not top 20?

Heard that Ryan, Jax, Lopez and Thielbar were there.

Last year there were 20 voters who either voted for one person (12) or zero (8). So far this year there is only one such voter. Meanwhile, Helton has edged ahead of Mauer, 91 to 90 out of 109 votes, while Wagner is over 80%.

I agree, he would be a great addition to the rotation. But I just cannot see this FO trading for a player that is under contract for four years and $85mm.

I think Manoah has more upside than Cabrera and would be my target.

The Twins FO MO is to trade for pitchers with multiple years of control, usually on an affordable contract, that don’t have astronomical trade values (ie wont cost a top prospect to get). Corbin Burnes (1 year) and Luis Castillo (owed $80mm) Jesus Luzardo and Logan Gilbert (both cost too much) do not fit their MO in my view. Alek Manoah and Edward Cabrera do.

To answer the question, no, he’s not viable. Signed by the Reds for $16mm, with a $20mm mutual option.

I say they trade him to Toronto for Alek Manoah straight up.

Travis Sawchik’s column https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2800615/explaining-a-hall-of-fame-vote-and-process makes 100 ballots. Beltre 98 Mauer 83 Helton 82 Wagner 79 Sheffield 73 In answer to your question, DJ, I’d say he definitely has a chance.

Interesting analysis.