AlwaysinModeration

Was Andrew Miller more valuable to the Orioles than Kurt Suzuki? Because I personally would have love to trade Suzuki for Eduardo Rodriguez.

The Kernels are stalking Kane County?

The Kernels are popping!

Wait...Berrios got pulled after 1.2IP tonight? Injury?

Download attachment: Drew_Stephen_Celebrating_US_720.jpg Right now, one of the thirty best shortstops in the game, coming off a championship season - who should be earning a multi-million dollar salary and starting on a daily basis - is cooling his heels without a team. Other, inferior players occupy starting spots on teams across the league, including, most obviously, the Twins. By now, most folks are aware of the circumstances that have forced Stephen Drew to sit out the opening part of this season. His signing is attached to a draft pick compensation, which has dried up his free agency market. Any team signing him would lose a valuable draft pick in the June draft; either their first round pick, or their second rounder if their first round pick is one of the first ten. If he is signed, Drew's former team, the Red Sox, stands to gain an extra pick in the June draft--a supplemental pick between the first and second round. But Boston only nets this pick if a team signs Drew before June 4. In recent years, MLB teams have grown to increasingly value early round draft picks, and therefore have been increasingly loathe to give them up in exchange for signing quality free agents (who aren't at the most elite levels). This year, the draft is considered extremely strong, making it even less likely for teams to sacrifice their first (or second) round pick. The presumed outcome of the Drew situation is that after June 4, he will quickly be signed by a team. By waiting until after the draft, the team will therefore avoid forfeiting a draft pick. This outcome has a clear negative outcome for Boston - it means Boston will lose out on that supplemental pick they stood to gain. The Twins have an obvious incentive not to sign Drew. They lose their second round pick by signing him. And this makes sense, as the Twins have relied on developing a strong farm system to get their organization back on track after several down years. But the Twins also have incentives to sign him before June 4: 1.a. They are fielding a sub-par SS in Pedro Florimon. The Twins' overall early 2014 performance has surprised many. This early success has led to more optimism about 2014, an optimism that wasn't there for most at the beginning of the season. b. Improving their weakest position, SS, would improve their overall likelihood of success this year. 2. Come June 4, there may be several suitors for Drew's services, when the draft pick sacrifice evaporates. It may be very hard for the Twins to succeed in landing Drew when faced with competition to sign him. Therefore, given the various incentives for the Twins and the Red Sox, it is in both of their interests to work out a deal before June 4. As we know, trading draft picks from the coming draft is not allowed. So to make this work, the Twins and Red Sox would need to work out a trade of players in their systems. They need to trade some prospects. The question is what kind of trade would be fair. For Boston, they should be willing to trade anyone who is valued less than that supplemental pick they stand to gain. For the Twins, they should be willing to accept anything from Boston that is roughly equivalent (or slightly less so) to the second round pick they would sacrifice. The Twins would also need to give something back in the trade. Therefore, the quality of what Boston would give up could be increased, because they would also be getting a (lesser) prospect back from the Twins. Here is what I suggest: First, the Twins come to a verbal agreement with Stephen Drew, dependent on working out a deal with the Red Sox. Then, the Twins trade Luke Bard for Anthony Ranaudo and complete the deal with Drew. The Twins lose their second round pick, but get back a quality arm. I'd prefer Henry Owens or Matt Barnes as the return, or Trey Ball (as a player to be named later, since he can't be traded until after June), but I am suspicious that these would be too far of a stretch. I think this would be a creative solution to an inefficiency in the market the current draft system has created. It would get Drew playing, as he deserves to be, it gets the Twins a better shortstop. (While there is debate over Florimon's worth, I don't hear anyone arguing that Pedro Florimon is a better overall shortstop than Drew). It lets Boston get the supplemental pick they might otherwise forego and it allows the Twins to get something in return for sacrificing their second round pick. Click here to view the article

Lefty, lots of helium this year. I'd prefer they pick someone with a longer track record of success, though.

Looking forward to keeping tabs on Buxton again.

I am hopeful Rodon somehow falls to the Twins, but I am not sure how. Free land looks like a good bet to be the Twins' pick right now.

If I am Stephen Drew, I want to be playing baseball, not waiting two months. The Twins have the money to make a decent offer to Drew. I don't think that is the issue--it's the draft compensation. As for collusion, I don't think so. In the past, I seem to recall a team working out a deal with another team so that they wouldn't lose their draft pick. This was back when the draft pick actually went to the team that lost the player.

Right now, one of the 30 best shortstops in the game, coming off a championship season - who should be earning a multi-million dollar salary and starting on a daily basis - is cooling his heels without a team. Other, inferior players occupy starting spots on teams across the league, including, most obviously, the Twins. By now, most folks are aware of the circumstances that have forced Stephen Drew to sit out the opening part of this season. His signing is attached to a draft pick compensation, which has dried up his free agency market. Any team signing him would lose a valuable draft pick in the June draft; either their first round pick, or their second rounder if their first round pick is one of the first 10. If he is signed, Drew's former team, the Red Sox, stands to gain an extra pick in the June draft--a supplemental pick between the first and second round. But Boston only nets this pick if a team signs Drew before June 4. In recent years, MLB teams have grown to increasingly value early round draft picks, and therefore have been increasingly loathe to give them up in exchange for signing quality free agents (who aren't at the most elite levels). This year, the draft is considered extremely strong, making it even less likely for teams to sacrifice their first (or second) round pick. The presumed outcome of the Drew situation is that after June 4, he will quickly be signed by a team. By waiting until after the draft, the team will therefore avoid forfeiting a draft pick. This outcome has a clear negative outcome for Boston - it means that Boston will lose out on that supplemental pick they stood to gain. The Twins have an obvious incentive not to sign Drew. They lose their second round pick by signing him. And this makes sense, as the Twins have relied on developing a strong farm system to get their organization back on track after down years. But the Twins also have incentives to sign him before June 4: 1. They are fielding a sub-par SS in Pedro Florimon. The Twins' overall early 2014 performance has surprised many. This early success has leading to more optimism about 2014 that wasn't there for most at the beginning of the season - and improving their weakest position, SS, would improve their overall likelihood of success this year. 2. Come June 4, there may be several suitors for Drew's services, when the draft pick sacrifice evaporates. It may be very hard for the Twins to succeed in landing Drew when faced with competition to sign him. Therefore, given the various incentives for the Twins and the Red Sox, it is in both of their interests to work out a deal before June 4. As we know, trading draft picks form the coming draft is not allowed. So to make this work, the Twins and Red Sox would need to work out a trade of players in their systems. They need to trade some prospects. The question is what kind of trade would be fair. For Boston, they should be willing to trade anyone that is valued less than that supplemental pick they stand to gain. For the Twins, they should be willing to accept anything from Boston that is roughly equivalent (or slightly less) to the second round pick that they would sacrifice. The Twins would also need to give something back in the trade. Therefore, the quality of what Boston would give up could be increased, because they would also be getting a (lesser) prospect back from the Twins. Here is what I suggest: Twins trade Luke Bard for Anthony Ranaudo. And then they sign Stephen Drew. The Twins lose their second round pick, but get back a quality arm. I'd prefer Henry Owens or Matt Barnes as the return, or Trey Ball (as a player to be named later, since he can't be traded until after June), but I am suspicious that these would be too far of a stretch. I think this would be a creative solution to an inefficiency in the market the current draft system has created. It would get Drew playing, as he deserves to be, it gets the Twins a better SS (while there is debate over Florimon's worth, I don't hear anyone arguing that Pedro Florimon is a better overall SS than Drew), it lets Boston get the supplemental pick they might otherwise forego, and it allows the Twins to get something in return for sacrificing their second round pick.

Didn't the Twins put him on their 40 a few years ago in a surprising move? Now that they have suffered for years with no consistency in the MI, it makes sense that they would give him away...

It seems to me it is a trend, and the trend is being driven by the hitting side of the equation. Teams don't care if a player strikes out a lot, if he is swinging for the fences and taking more pitches.

Were you really struck by lightning four times?

Lefty-leaning line-ups will also gain a bigger platoon advantage. Switch hitters get 100% platoon advantage, lefties get 70%, righties get 30%. So the Twins gain advantage by batting lefties and switch hitters, although we know that they never platoon.

Nice work. I agree that is he can reduce his walks a bit, that will be Deduno's best shot at being useful, with expected regression in his other numbers. Also interesting that the focus of this winds up on Jake Westbrook, jwestbrock.

You have to imagine the players love this and a bunch eagerly volunteer. Easily the most entertaining thing to happen with the big club in the past month. (Or past three years?)

I was just lamenting the uprooted firs the other day. Great piece. Haven't they play 105 games, though?

That's the line I am setting for the number of Twins who are traded away before the next 24 hours elapse. I was going to set it at 1.5, but I think this line is more, well, in line. What have you got? Over, or under?

That's the line I am setting for the number of Twins who are traded away before the next 24 hours elapse. I was going to set it at 1.5, but I think this line is more, well, in line. What have you got? Over, or under?

I'd happily call it a knuckleball, if that is what it is. Here is a dumb question...how in the hell does pitchFX figure out how many RPMs a ball makes? I get the break calculations...

I think the Twins are hitting their stride; in 8th place for the top draft pick, and falling out of contention enough to know that they should be trading away veterans this month. A couple of good months and then can position themselves even better for 2014-2015-2016.

Great piece. The data you have presented, while barely over the threshold of small sample size, show two things: 1)Mauer is swinging at more pitches, and 2)Mauer has shifted where he hits the ball up in the spectrum; more fly balls/line-drives at the expense of ground balls. The question is whether he is changing his swing path to more of an uppercut, or swinging at more higher pitches? (Or another explanation?) One note...this is the first year he would have had the opportunity to work with Brunansky....maybe he's changed his approach slightly due to that?

He gets my vote. I don't have one, however.

I don't know. How many starts before Correia is over 5 for the season?