AlwaysinModeration

Two weeks later, and the only thing that has changed (aside from it getting really late) is that the Twins now have some extra cash in their accounts after the tv streaming deal was settled. All of these top free agents are still available, with Bellinger and Montgomery in particular seem to be good roster fits for team—Bellinger could spell Buxton in CF and Kiriloff against lefties, and Montgomery would be the best LHP for their rotation. Bellinger was projected to get $22mm per year, Montgomery $25mm per year. What if the Twins offered either one of them the same sort of 3/105, opt-out-after-every-year deal that they gave Correa?

I look forward to him facing Marcus Semien for the first time

So, have we heard anything further on how thus might affect their budget this year? I believe I read that the contract for this year was going to be 85% of the previous contract. The prior contract was 50, so does that mean they have 85% if $50mm to work with? Or even 50% of that amount, if they spend 50% of revenue and on salaries? In any event, seems like they might suddenly have some extra financial flexibility….

Cost almost to the dollar the amount they saved with the Polanco trade - $5.25mm. I can’t believe the ownership told the front office “you can’t spend a dollar more than is already on the books”, but it kind of seems like that’s what happened.

And ERod and Martin too.

Do I really believe it will occur? No. But if you’d told me they’d sign Josh Donaldson and Correa (twice!), I’d never have believed you in a million years. Maybe they have exactly $5mm to spend. Or…maybe, just maybe…they’ve got a bit of flexibility to sign someone if the right situation arises, and this extra $5mm helps them get there. Doesn’t seem likely. But we’ve been surprised before.

Pretty high bar you got there!

You don’t want the Twins to sign a two-time Cy Young winner?

Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market. And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals: 1/22/20: Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm. JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm. Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually. 1/31/21: Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm. This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm. But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount. 3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out. Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm. Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag. 1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm. After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm. This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical. Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail. It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks. And there are still several big names out there. Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again? #2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm.. #4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm. #6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm #7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm #16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm. #20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm. History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate. Who’s it going to be? Soler or Martinez seem like better bets. But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

Ah, I see. And who’s playing center field?

With that $6mm they get back for this trade, I think the Twins have just enough scratch to sign Jordan Montgomery. Right???

I think the cash is only $6mm, but this does seem like a decent return from a position of depth. Good luck to you, hip, hip, Jorge!

When and where

He debuted the same year as Andruw Jones, and Jones got 7.3% to Johan’s 2.4%. I think if Santana had managed to survive the ballot until 2019, he could have mirrored Jones’ climb—Jones is now in the 60’s. Santana was hurt by Colon stealing his third consecutive Cy Young. He was the best pitcher in the game for an extended stretch. Way better than Nathan OR Wagner.

Not the whole AB…

Jinx

Twins sign 30-year old former UW-LaCrosse pitcher Caleb Boushley to a minor league deal. https://www.mlb.com/player/caleb-boushley-676961

Pretty standard to lose 5-7% when the final tally is revealed. Needed almost all of the cushion he’d banked.

Just scraped in over the line with 76.1%, four votes to spare. Congrats Joe!

200 votes cast, announcement tomorrow. Beltre, 198 votes, 99.0% Mauer, 167 votes, 83.5% Helton, 164 votes, 82.0% Wagner, 156 votes, 78% Sheffield, 150 votes, 75% What started out as a real long shot is getting close to a reality—Joe Mauer will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He had many things going for him that people underestimated: played for only one club, played for his hometown, pristine character, unique achievements (3 batting titles as a catcher), plus he was on a ballot that wasn’t too crowded and didn’t have a lot of big-name newcomers—Ichiro helped him out by playing the opening series in Japan of the next year after Mauer retired, thus pushing his eligibility back a year. Even his flaws have “aged” better; his post-concussion drop-off is probably more accepted today than in years past, and his lack of power is accepted more in the post-steroid era.

Poor Alex Wimmers. I hope he is able to at least crash on Dave St. Peter’s new couch.

175 votes tallied: Beltre 173, 98.9% Mauer 146, 83.4% Helton 145, 82.9% Wagner 140, 80% ______________ Sheffield, 129, 73.7% Andruw Jones 126, 72.0%

He has 8 votes so far, and has gained one vote from last year’s voters and one vote from new voters. He needs 11-12 more votes to stay on the ballot; my guess is he gets there.

Compare to Duran’s 2017-2021 years: 62 starts in 63 appearances, 294IP, 4.04ERA, 1.28WHIP, 0.64HR/9, 8.1H/9, 9.9K/9, 3.4BB/9. And post-COVID, Duran had the same jump in K rate, jumping up to 12K/9 (as a starter) and then maintaining 11+K/9 after moving to relief.

Love the premise of this piece, but I think the answer is no. I think Duran is in the bullpen to stay. However, I could see them trying Jax in the rotation. From 2017 to 2021 he made 50 appearances, with 49 of those as a starter. He had solid numbers as a starter: 286IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.17WHIP, 0.44HR/9, 8.5H/9, 6.8K/9, 2.0BB/9. His K/9 numbers jumped up over 9K/9 after moving to the pen, which is what you expect for a starter moving to the pen. But I think he had already taken a leap forward during the missed COVID season of 2020, because he was striking out 8K/9 in 2021, still as a starter. Right now Varland is penciled in to the rotation as the #5 guy, but why not give Jax a shot?