Danchat
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Everything posted by Danchat
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Thielen got a 3/$25M with $14M guaranteed from the Panthers, a solid payday and a boatload of targets as the unquestioned #1 WR there (the next receivers up are Laviska Shenualt and Terrace Marshall). He won't be chasing a ring and might get shutdown but opponents' #1 CB... but maybe he'll be the top receiver for the next rookie phenom QB. Emphasis on maybe.
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I think it's time to boot up the annual roster moves and transactions thread with the regular season so close. I'll post some moves from yesterday: Feel free to post updates here. (For minor league transactions see the equivalent thread in the Minor League forum.) -
We're bringing the OL back together, as we've re-signed all of our OL free agents. Not what I would have done after getting their butts kicked by a bad Giants defense in the playoffs, but they love their continuity. Udoh did play rather well at RT once O'Neill went out, but RT is the only position he's not terrible at. I just hope they replace Schlottmann in the draft (and eventually Bradbury) because he is legitimately the worst center in football, by a country mile.
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I'm definitely not a fan of the DL Lowry move, he's a mediocre lineman that the Packers benched by the end of the year and he doesn't stop the run well or rush the passer, oh and he's no longer in his prime. Sounds like $8.5M - or however much he's guaranteed - down the toilet. I think Ham gets axed, but they may be waiting to see if there's a FB they like in the draft, as weird as that sounds. If they don't find a FB they like, they'll probably force Ham to take a pay cut and keep him. Which doesn't make a ton of sense to me as they appear to plan on using Oliver on 50-60% of the snaps... add on a FB, and we're basically running an old school offense or like what the Ravens or doing, minus a hyper-athletic QB. That's a weird wrinkle for KOC, of whom I thought would want to hoard WRs, but instead our WR depth is rough.
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The deadline basically determines that the Vikings won't cut them, but you can trade guaranteed salary. For Cook, the RB market has moved and I don't see a whole lot of teams who want a bellcow left. For Smith, there are plenty of teams that could use a pass rusher of his caliber. For these reasons, I'm predicting that Cook does not get traded and plays 2023 for the Vikings, but Smith does eventually get moved (with the acquiring team giving him a new contract).
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Here are Five Options If Alex Kirilloff Misses Time
Danchat replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think it's rather clear that Solano is the guy for the first couple weeks. I don't think I could stomach seeing another long stint of Miranda attempting to play 1B, especially as he's focused heavily on being an everyday 3B. -
Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Right Field
Danchat replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
20+ HRs from Kepler feels pretty unrealistic after he had a whopping 9 in 446 PAs last year - which for reference, is as many HRs as Nick Gordon hit in 443 PAs, and even Arraez reached 8 HRs (though he had another 160 PAs). Sure, I think he'll hit a few more singles this year with the new shift limitations, but his power is in steady decline and I don't see any discernable reason why it's going to spike upwards. I'd really like to see Larnach seize LF or RF, but he's just got to stay healthy. I dunno about Wallner, we just haven't had success on batters who strike out so often, so I wouldn't bet on him. -
Incentives can get it to at most $8M, and I think he has $6.5M guaranteed. It’s top backup money.
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I didn't think Mattison would be back, he's a fine backup and great to have on third downs, but he'd be a liability as the primary starter, his rushing numbers the past two years are near the bottom in efficiency. Still not sure about Cook, it was looking like he'd be back since multiple trade offers were on the table, you would think they would have pulled the trigger. The decision will mean a lot for Ty Chandler, if they move Cook then there is a lot of potential for him to step up and take touches from Mattison, if they keep him then Chandler is probably a weekly inactive again.
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Could Bailey Ober Still Win A Rotation Spot?
Danchat replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Ober is going to be in the rotation long-term, start him now. He has nothing to gain in AAA and Maeda probably hits the market next year, so let’s build up Ober’s innings and test his durability over the year.- 51 replies
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- opening day 2023
- bailey ober
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It’s actually a 2/18 deal with the incentives removed, so it’s a great value. However, I definitely wouldn’t call him a shutdown CB, as his PFF grades are average at best and he is not a great fit in a man heavy def like Flores’, being that he’s one of the slowest CBs in football. Still, he’s young and I’m trusting Flores on how to use him.
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Seeing how they’re giving out two $10M+ deals to free agents in 2023, no, they’re not tanking. Kirk’s gravitational pull to .500 will also prevent tanking.
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It's a weird move, since the Raiders just made Waller the 2nd highest paid TE on an extension that doesn't start until 2024! Not to mention, I believe there was a report saying that the Packers offered the Raiders a 2nd rounder for Waller last year and the Raiders wanted more, and now here they are, shipping him off for pick #100. The Raiders aren't making any sense to me, they went all-in for Davante Adams but downgraded other parts of the roster... they are circling around the toilet boil of mediocrity and aren't going to be competitive in a strong AFC conference. Oh man, it's lining up that way isn't it? Especially with Kirk not getting extended. History always repeats itself!!
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Bradbury returns for 15.75M/3. Affordable, but likely means our OL isn’t going to improve by too much next year. I’m surprised they aren’t extending Kirk. I really thought they would, so I have to wonder what the long-term plan at QB is…
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Davenport reminds me a lot of Jadaveon Clowney, high pressure rate but doesn't close out well, gets plagued by injuries. He's just as likely to have a 10 sack season as he is a 1 sack season. I like going with the younger guy, but man $13M is a lot, especially when you're bending over backwards to pay a blocking TE. Probably means Smith is gone, and we're back to being around $16-18M over the cap so tomorrow is going to be a busy day. Still a ton of holes to be filled. DT Tomlinson got $14.25M a year from the Browns, CB Peterson got $7M per year from the Steelers, and Kendricks inked a deal with the Chargers.
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I don't get the Oliver move... the dude has been healthy for one full season and is not a receiving threat, and yet gets $7M a year and $10M guaranteed. That’s a bigger contract than LB TJ Edwards (3/19.5), C Ethan Pocic (3/18), and C Bradley Bozeman (3/18)!! They have so many needs to fill and blow too much on a blocking TE who has one nice year under his belt? Yikes. Maybe I’m missing something here. I guess they're ready to go 2 TE heavy sets, and our run blocking was quite bad last year so Oliver should help there. I just don't get why he commanded $7M a year when I would have guessed he'd get 1/$3M. They've got so many other holes to fix, and instead make a luxury signing. I’m getting some serious John Carlson deja vu…
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Only the Twins were allowed to make him an offered because they paid the posting fee... unless you are saying they bid against nobody for that fee?
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Moore is a #1 WR, he's just been held back by Carolina's terrible play. While Fields isn't going to solve that problem, it makes their offense harder to stop... now with Moore, Mooney, Claypool, and Kmet as weapons to throw to, the Bears offense could be pretty good if Fields can step forward as a better passer. I dunno, that's a fantastic return for the Bears. Moore is worth a 1st on his own, so they got 3 1sts and 2 2nds for moving down 8 spots. That's a heck of a move for them.
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Dantzler cut is surprising since he couldn’t fetch a late rounder, but I had Cam getting moved for a 6th in my offseason guide so I’m not shocked he’s gone. PFF likes him, but he fell into Zimmer and Ed’s doghouse and likely wasn’t going to fare any better with Flores. Folks, this isn’t a rebuild. These are typical moves for a new regime to make, I just thought they’d do more of this last year. They’re gearing up to spend $$$ on free agents and clearing out the old regime’s holdovers.
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I thought Smith would take a pay cut, a release would be a surprise. With ZaDarius unlikely to be back, the defense is about as barren as it can get… seems like they’re preparing to make several FA moves. Looks like I need to update my avatar, seeing how both players are no longer on Minnesota teams.
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There’s been zero talk of Cousins to the Jets… you’d think teams would want him if he’s as great as the Kirk stand say he is, but I don’t think the Jets think he is going to get them over the hump.
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They had to pay the posting fee, which research shows was $12.85M.
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That's a concern, as the NFLPA is giving him guidance and some think that they are part of the reason why he's asking for a 100% guaranteed deal, the players want the NFL to become more like the other leagues. The reports I read said that his knee just wasn't healing. It was a PCL sprain, which tend to be on the milder side of knee injuries, but sometimes it happens. I don't question his toughness. Reminds me of Sam Bradford... However, there was some scuttlebutt that other players on the team were frustrated with him, and I believe he didn't show up to their playoff game in January... lol, there's an article about Michael Vick calling him out for it. There seems to be more going on behind the scenes. That is true, though Mark Andrews is a stud. Their plan at WR last year was dumb, they need to go heavy on investing in WRs. Good thing it's a historically bad WR crop in free agency and a below-average WR crop in the draft...
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Lamar Jackson can be whisked away for 2 1sts on the non-exclusive franchise tag. No team has reached out, as talk is that he wants a fully guaranteed deal like Watson’s, something like $250M. For a guy who has not been able to finish a season healthy since 2020, that’s a lot to ask. Some are crying collusion, but the Watson deal is not something other teams actually want to do. On Jones, the Giants should have played chicken and let him realize that his price tag would be lower after he hit the market. Its insane he’s now only a few mill a year under Mahomes and Allen now.
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Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Catcher
Danchat replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He became a minor league free agent at the end of 2022 and sat around for a bit, until the Twins signed him. If other teams thought anything of him, he’d been signed in an instant.
