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Danchat

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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. Danchat
    That's why I stated this: To me, pipeline == minor league development of starting pitchers. If you're talking about acquiring starters of all kinds, they've done plenty of that with mixed results. My complaints are with the inability to convert our homegrown prospects into MLB starters, which is something that was hyped up with Falvey/Levine rolling into town. Our minor league pipeline hasn't been close to what Cleveland's has been.
  2. Danchat
    That is true, but then where are the Falvine pitching prospects being developed in the minor leagues? The new regime has had 6 drafts to build depth, and yet they still have zero arms in the top 100 prospects. It's true that the previous regime had overhyped pitching prospects, but the current regime isn't doing much better. Ryan isn't part of the pipeline because he spend zero/minimal time in our minors. He still counts as an acquisition of the front office in a bank robbery of a trade, but our minor league development should get zero credit for him. That's what I mean by 'pipeline', so your interpretation of that word may be different. Great point. Plus, a true starting pitcher pipeline wouldn't have a year where a team has to acquire 5 starters over a single year (Bundy, Archer, Paddack, Gray, Mahle). And yes, the pandemic hurt prospect development, but other organizations have recovered and are successfully converting prospects into MLB starters, and we aren't.
  3. Danchat
    I was just going off the 2019 prospect list, and I don’t consider Ryan as part of the pipeline as hisminor league development was complete before he got here. Ober is nice but has been a 5 inning starter / hurt, and Varland & SWR are still unknowns. We’re in year 7 and only one starter is native to our pipeline (and if we add another starter, Ober is getting bumped out). Every year it’s been “this is the year the prospects break through” just to see Gonsalves, Thorpe, Romero, Duran, Balazovic, Sands, Winder and others fail to break into the rotation. I hope Varland and SWR can stick, but I’d bet against it with the history of our pitching prospects.
  4. Danchat
    It’s a mixed bag… they’ve developed hitting and relievers, but it’s telling that zero of these guys have made an impact as a starting pitcher, and it seems more likely than not that Enlow and Balazovic will not be effective starters in the bigs. Still waiting for the pitching pipeline…
  5. Danchat
    I am fascinated by how that is humanly possible, Even Sano had 11 sacrifice flies in about the same at bats! Nelson Cruz hit 18 in that same stretch of about 2500 ABs. Don't blame Rocco for failing to coach his guys to knock in runs when the FO is signing guys who are innately bad at it. Only 47 RBIs in 410 PAs...
  6. Danchat
    Well, I guess it's time to start rooting against the Twins! Well, whomever told Hayes about Gallo was right... they had a backup plan, it just turns out to be a really bad one!
  7. Danchat
    Wow, I hate it. They've basically just re-signed Sano for too much money, except this version of him can handle himself in the outfield. The Twins have already proven that they couldn't coach strikeouts out of Sano, how are they going to do it with Gallo? If Vazquez and Gallo are the two main additions to the lineup, this is going to be a bottom 10 lineup. We lost Correa and Urshela, guys you could stick in at the #2 and #5 spots respectively, and now have a catcher to stash at #9 and a hot-and-cold bat who is going to hit #4/5 too often when he'll be better off hitting #7/8. I'd much rather be saddled with a great player on a bad contract than scrounge for scraps, and at a bad price. Feels like Logan Morrison all over again! Maybe CJ Cron if we're lucky. Hopefully a terrible move like this and the Pagan one ensures that this front office gets sacked by the end of the year.
  8. Danchat
    I love this meme, it’s an annual tradition. Fans: “They’re not going to spend more than they did last year, they won’t sign any FAs” - then suddenly they sign Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, Lance Lynn and they set a new record of payroll. Happens every year but some just don’t seem to realize it. This approach isn’t exactly leading to any more wins, but they’re going to sign more players. That isn’t up for debate.
  9. Danchat
    As much as I would hate this, it would be logical to move Arraez when his value is the highest. The one thing the front office did right last year was move some players while their stock was high (Garver and Rogers). The problem is, I just don't trust our FO to identify the right pitcher to move Arraez for. We don't need another injury prone or #3-like starter. And this team is going to be a lot less fun to watch, they were already a mostly dull team to watch in 2022, and would be bottom tier without Correa and Arraez (obviously they'll spend money elsewhere, but my point stands).
  10. Danchat
    We'll have to get confirmation, but I'm pretty sure they protected Legumina since they knew they were likely to move him. I don't view him as much of a prospect, certainly not a top 30 guy. Farmer makes sense as a backup to whomever we sign to play SS, instead of moving Polanco back to SS as the primary backup plan.
  11. Danchat
    Agreed, I wouldn't lose a second of sleep if we lost Severino or Sisk.
  12. Danchat
    Feels like every year there is one surprise who gets protected, Legumina certainly profiles as that. I don't see the need to protect him, as I doubt teams would care much about a 26 year old reliever in AA. I think Severino is the most likely to be claimed. I could see Helman or one of the relievers get claimed, but I don't think they have a ton of upside. Urbina is too raw and hasn't shown enough at this point to be claimed.
  13. Danchat
    He was one of the worst relievers in baseball in the second half, so bad that the Brewers demoted him to low leverage innings. There is a lot of downside here. I would guess the Twins don’t want to pay him, which is part of the reason why they moved him… but seeing how both SD and MIL ended up demoting him, I’d only bring him back on a prove-it deal. MLBT thinks he gets 3/$30M… no thanks.
  14. Danchat
    How about we all chip in $10 and see where that gets us? ?
  15. Danchat
    I get the praise for Julien, I think he will be a MLB-caliber hitter, but Martin has a long ways to go to prove he belongs. I find it hard to ignore how poorly he was playing at points in his second go-around at AA. IIRC Celestino did the same thing last year, bad 4 months then got hit late… turned out his bat wasn’t MLB ready in 2022. Let’s see Martin hit .300 at AAA for at least a month and then we’ll talk.
  16. Danchat
    No, it's not bad luck that the Twins didn't land Darvish or Wheeler. On both fronts it was reported that the Twins' best offers were $20M shy of what they got with the years being the same. Their MO is to sign one year deals and more recently trade for starters, so I'd expect more of that in 2023.
  17. Danchat
    $34M value the past two years, seriously? His defense is good and he takes a lot of walks, but he was atrocious at the plate for long stretches of time, lost most of his HR power, and kept hitting into the shift. I had high expectations for Max and he's been a perennial disappointment since 2019. If a team is high on him and offers a substantial package I'd move him, but I would expect they hold onto him for one more year. Perhaps his numbers improve with the shift limitations, but he will be another year out of his prime too.
  18. Danchat
    I could see Julien starting the first couple months in AAA and get a chance in May/June, similarly to how Miranda got his chance. With this lineup's durability, there will be an opening for him sooner than later.
  19. Danchat
    I could see Kepler winning it, but Arraez is a 'heck no', and Correa is a probably not.
  20. Danchat
    Our hitters have traditionally done fairly well in the minors, but man we just didn't have anything good for pitching prospects. Gonsalves and Thorpe never had the stuff to succeed in the majors, while Romero did but just didn't pan out. That turns out to be one legit MLB player in the top 14 (Gordon, with Kirilloff potentially but not yet), but some very strong results for 15-30.
  21. Danchat
    Rogers was perhaps the best reliever in baseball the first two months (1.64 ERA .454 OPS against), but then was horrific the next two months (8.14 ERA .890 OPS against) and then was plain bad for the Brewers (5.48 ERA, .845 OPS against). Enough for them to remove him from high leverage situations by the end of the year. I count 10 blown saves and 8 losses (there is overlap between those two stats). As bad as Pagan? No because of the first 2 months, but it was easily the worst season of his career. The Twins may have been right to trade him while his value was high, but of course they had to choose Paddack to be the centerpiece of the trade.
  22. Danchat
    I just don't foresee them getting good injury luck next year. They simply have too many brittle players, too many hitters who immediately go into the tank upon suffering a minor injury and too many pitchers who already have red-flagged injury histories or are potentially suffering from the optimization that our pitching staff had them go through to get their MPH as high as possible. Absolutely, plenty exist right now. The Rays practically worship analytics and usually field a strong defense. I think the problem is more related to coaching and to the front office's focus on signing/drafting bat-first players and not focusing on the fundamentals in the minor leagues.
  23. Danchat
    A hot finish is nice, but I don't think Martin is that good of a prospect now that we've got a larger sample size on him. He's supposedly a bat-first prospect who will mostly slap singles and draw walks, and defensively can't handle SS despite being given every chance to stick there... so he'll probably play in the outfield and have the speed for it, but his inexperience there could make it a slower transition. Maybe I'm just getting jaded, but I can't say I have any confidence here. We talked last year about how hot Celestino finished the year in the minors despite a very poor first 4 months, and now he's sporting a .620 OPS in the majors.
  24. Danchat
    I’m pretty sure his RBIs are low because he hits lead off most the time, but I don’t have the stats to confirm that.
  25. Danchat
    That’s absolutely worth $10M, we are way better with him in the lineup compared to the alternatives. But 7 more years of this… he’s going to miss more and more time.
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