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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    100% correct - I stupidly forgot Lewis. Edited above. Thank you.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Oops. Duh. My bad. Thanks. Edited my comment above. 👍🏻
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s review position players by year. 2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien, plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo 2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well. Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade. It certainly appears to be a solid foundation. The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams. Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Noah is probably one of our most underrated prospects. In ‘26 (age 23) he could find himself playing an incredibly important role as an infield defensive specialist and injury fill-in starter for the best position player lineup in the majors. That’s a big job and one of immense value.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Last season this team was an absolute snore through the All Star break. The team was barely watchable with uninspired play from our team leader (Correa), our high priced free agent catcher (Vasquez), our “I don’t care we paid $11MM for him, how in the world is he getting ABs and innings” FA waste (Gallo), nothing from Buxton, and very little from Kepler and Polanco. Do we all remember this? Then basically a miracle happened. Rocco & Co have an epiphany and start to play the young guys. Lewis and Kiriloff come back from injury, Julien and Wallner get in the lineup regularly, and Joseph becomes the de facto starting catcher. Suddenly, there is a spark and the team has life. They are watchable - more than watchable, they are fun. Kepler gets red hot and Correa starts stepping up his game. We end up running away with the division and win our first playoff series. The point is that the rookies/youngsters led the way. 100% those same young players plus Lee, Martin, Larnach and possibly Miranda need to play a big role in the ‘24 Twins. All of them may not be there day one, but each of them need investment and trust. The primary goal for ‘24 should absolutely be to win the ALCS; however, we should also exit ‘24 with multiple bona fide major leaguers, if not emerging stars, from this list of core prospects. If ‘23 taught us anything it’s that those goals are not mutually exclusive. Btw, the two kids who won the ROYs this season were allowed to play. Their teams invested in them with innings and ABs and the ROI followed nicely.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    The underlying gist of this article is that Larnach has not fulfilled his promise and doesn’t look to be part of the Twins’ plans for the future. Assuming this is correct (and I for one am not there yet), the bigger questions are 1) how/why did this happen and 2) how do we get better at improving the results of our solid minor league prospects transitioning into the bigs? Larnach is not the first. There are many others. Among the current crop, Miranda and, to a lesser extent, Kiriloff are similar examples. How do we make sure Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Martin don’t fall into this category? Why did Steer, CES and Rooker, three of our “less heralded” prospects we traded instead of Miranda and Larnach, have such a successful transition? Sure we’ve had successes over the years, but a high success rate in the transition has to be the hallmark of any small to mid market team hoping to compete. With the batch of young talent transitioning in this year and over the following two seasons, one would think that substantial thought, data analysis, and resources would be devoted to this issue/opportunity.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Super analysis. Thanks Nick. The second derivative of course is value to the Twins. We are short corner outfielders (actually, all outfielders) and long middle infielders. Normally, you’d like to sell high and Kepler is not getting any higher based on the FA market and his performance. But after Wallner, who is our most dependable corner outfielder? Larnach? Things look fairly bare in the Twins’ outfield cupboard for 2024. Whom do we prefer as a backup infielder - Polanco ($10.5MM) or Farmer ($6.6MM)? One surely should be moved. It’s a tough choice - both are excellent, veteran players. Farmer is better at SS and maybe more durable. Polanco is a switch hitter and could possibly be a better fill in at 1B and DH. The Twins have four marginally expensive veterans who could be moved to raise cash for an additional starter: Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez. One of those is a sure fire starter and all star calibre player - Kepler. For a team with definitive post season aspirations in 2024, Kepler must stay. The other three are (valuable) backups - each could step up to be a quality starter if need be. It’s hard to say which of them should be traded. Tough call. But if we need $15-20MM to grab a starter to replace Gray and the goal is $135MM or so in payroll, then two of them must go.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Moving Polanco and Vasquez would save $20MM - both players, albeit accomplished, are essentially backups going forward. Take the savings and reinvest as much as possible into pitching, preferably for a starter as close as we can get to Gray’s performance. Don’t forget, we are already saving $11MM by getting rid of Gallo - so they drop to $140MM is already there essentially. Let the kids play.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    You are 100% correct - the likelihood that all of these players pan out is incredibly low. But there are 8-10 of them, and given Correa, Castro, Buxton, and a couple others whom will be sure to join the club (internal or external additions), not all of them need to. But, moving on from Taylor, Solano, Gallo, Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer is going to happen between now and the end of next season at one point or another. That is happening. Not one of those players sees opening day in ‘25 as a Twin. But the good news, IMHO, is that the opportunity exists to replace the current and expected level of production from all of those really, really good ballplayers (other than Gallo, each was a huge contributor to our team this season) with mostly some combination of internal talent. I’ve written this on this site for years - and it’s even more relevant today given the news about lower expected payroll: the ability of a small - mid market team like the Twins to truly be competitive for a championship year in and year out comes down to developing highly performing minor league prospects and continuing that development through their introduction and early tenure in the big leagues. Simply put: we have to have a higher success rate with players like Kiriloff, Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, etc. etc. etc If I were the Pohlads, figuring that out is where I’d be spending significant resources.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but this team is undergoing a significant transition. In 2024 we will have Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Kiriloff (and even Jeffers could start and go 2/3rds) hopefully moving to full time starting position players. We very well could have Martin and Lee join them. In 2025, Jenkins and Rodriguez and maybe Rosario and others could join that description. That’s 8-10 players who were not in those roles at the beginning of ‘23. Meanwhile, Gallo, Farmer, Solano, Martin, Polanco, Kepler and possibly Buxton (hopefully not) will have already played , or will, in ‘24, play their last game for the Twins. Vasquez may also be in that category. The old guys are moving on and the young guys are replacing them. It’s happening. My point is that we should remain highly competitive throughout - I called for us winning 90 games next year and having a run at an ALCS. That’s 100% doable. But what I’m also saying is that given likely budget constraints (I.e, no top starter coming in via FA) and the influx of talent on the way, I’m not all doom and gloom about this team’s prospects in ‘24 and beyond In fact, I’m incredibly optimistic. Let’s pick up talent where we can, but if the pickings aren’t great, I certainly wouldn’t sell out ‘25-27 to go all in ‘24.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic. We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises. Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization. Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed. Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath. ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26. Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential. Let them play. We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc. Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well. Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline. Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center. Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!
  12. Nashvilletwin
    No chance Twins go 5 years $100MM+ on any of these three. Given the pitching pipeline, I’d think a two year deal with a slight overpay for Gray is way more likely. Even a one year deal with an option for Maeda is a better fit given current circumstances. ’24 is going to be a bit of a transition year as we await Lee, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Martin, and Rosario. But a transition year when we should be fully capable of contending. The Twins will reload their starting staff in ‘26 when the window is wide open and the position players are still on relatively cheap contracts.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    All of our assets - cash available and players - are fungible. We can trade for position players just as easily as we can sign them as FAs. Same with pitchers. At the moment, this team is long position players, except for maybe CF, and definitely short a #2 starter. A combination of raising cash by trading a high salary position player coupled with using available FA budget in order to get the pitcher we want within our overall budget constraints is certainly an option.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Trade Polanco for decent prospects or cheap relief corp upgrades. Then use the $ savings to apply to a top FA pitcher. We use our “depth” and $15MM in extra payroll to get a solid #2. Easy peasy.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of talk about signing a free agent or making a trade. The FO could essentially combine those two strategies by signing a top FA and then pay for him by trading Polanco or Farmer or, I guess, even Kepler. The point is that we have trade capital that can also raise cash. Given our infield depth, the FO shouldn’t think twice about trading Polanco if the cash that deal saves us allows us to stretch in free agency for the equivalent of a solid #2 innings eating starter.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Cleveland lost their biggest advantage - Terry Francona. He will be hard to replace. The Guardians, and for that matter the Tigers, White Sox, or Royals either, are not keeping me up at night. The Twins should be focused on what it will take to win the American League - not just the Central.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    The Twins have two very big holes in their lineup currently. The first is in CF. Reasonable options (stand alone or in combination with one another - Buxton, Martin, Castro, Gordon, Taylor) at little or not much extra cost exist to fill that hole. The second is a dependable, innings eating #2 starter. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack have the other four spots. Filling that hole is going to cost us - either in cash or trade capital. Gray is a perfect fit for that slot. Just go ahead and offer him a two year deal with a slight overpay to get him to stay. Two years at $45MM and each side can call it a day. BTW, our third biggest hole is probably one additional starter - a reliable #4 type who could also do pen work if necessary. Maeda fits that role perfectly - but is probably too expensive. This is where our trade capital could come in handy. Just no more Mahle’s…..
  18. Nashvilletwin
    The Twins are not long corner outfielders at the moment (or center fielders for that matter as well). Kepler’s second half cannot be overlooked - if he produces any where near that in ‘24, he very likely could not be replaced internally or externally via free agency for anything near that $10MM. Prediction: Kepler is our starting RFer opening day. Polanco, I believe, also has an option for ‘25 at $12,5MM. A team acquiring Polanco actually has control for two years at a very reasonable price. That extra year definitely has value in the trade market, Given the Twin’s depth in the infield, and the ability to pretty much replace Polanco with infield depth at a lower cost in free agency if need be, Polanco is more likely to be moved. Polanco’s trade return plus freeing up $10MM could really help to round out the pitching staff. Prediction: Polanco is moved before opening day.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Another reason this lineup can do damage is that by ‘25 only Correa (and maybe Jeffers to a certain extent and Vasquez if he’s still here) is making real money. There is a lot money, even including what we owe Buxton, left over for pitching. That’s a huge advantage. Btw, Rosario might replace Wallner, but we can play that by ear. This would also be such a fun team to watch.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Option #3: In ‘25, Rodriguez starts in RF alongside Jenkins in CF and Rosario in LF - the three rookies then play together for five years on basically league minimum/arb eligible salaries. The three of them form the best outfield in Twins history and the Twins use the extra cash (from them and Lewis and Lee) to have the best pitching staff in the majors. Multiple World Series wins follow. I vote for this option.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Agree with the hypothesis - for a vast majority of the Twins’ upcoming personnel decisions not dictated by date specific league rules. However, the single biggest decision - how we replace Gray and, for that matter, Maeda - is something we might do a bit more proactively this off-season. Who knows, we might resign one, both or go an entirely different route. But it would be better to figure that out a bit earlier while more options are on the table. Last year’s kick save (trading Arraez for Lopez after pretty much figuring out the risks we were running with Mahle and Maeda) worked great, but was probably not the original strategy. Perhaps this year the key rotation decisions get addressed earlier.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. However, most of us TDers would probably admit that we had higher hopes for Celestino. Larnach seems to be in somewhat of a similar situation. It’s easy for some of us (not saying you are at all, btw) to just blame the player for not taking the next step. That’s a bit of a cop out. Maybe not in this particular case, but in some cases, if not many, the organization has to share the blame. Hopefully lessons are learned in these instances and applied, We’d all hate to see Martin, Rodriguez, Wallner, Julien, even Lee for that matter, etc. go the path of Celestino and others. Obviously not every prospect becomes the big leaguer he (and we) hope to be. However, to truly be able to compete in this free agent, high spending world of MLB, small to mid market teams must truly differentiate their ability to develop top minor league prospects and, importantly, continue that development upon making the majors. I’m not sure this capability is yet a Twins’ strong suit.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    SWR seems like he has one more year to turn things around, but he is quite a bit back now in the ‘25 future starter sweepstakes. He”s still young, but do pitchers who eventually make the bigs spend four complete years in AAA (which is where he’d be after ‘25)? I’d like to think he might need a new home, but I seen to recall he’s already moved around quite a bit. Here’s hoping he at least runs into some hot streaks and can be a spot starter over the next couple of years. However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out. Prielipp could be lower at this stage; he’s proven exactly nothing. Still he has promise. Question: do you prefer SWR with what he’s shown or the promise of Prielipp behind door #2? IMHO, Nick has it right - probably Prielipp. Let’s see what happens in ‘24. Some of us TDers thought at the time of the trade Salas would never make the bigs and third guy in the deal (sorry, I can’t recall his name off the top of my head) actually had more upside. No reason to change that assessment after ‘23; Salas has a long way to go and lots of other players to climb over to ever see Target Field. Hope that’s changes in ‘24 for him.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Could our starting outfield lineup in ‘25 consist of three rookies: Jenkins, Rosario, and Rodriguez? Maybe Wallner and Martin as reserves and DH? Probably not how things will work out, but fun to imagine. Boy, throw in Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers and a healthy Kiriloff and that could be quite the young core. If Correa, Buxton, and Vasquez rounded out the 13 position player spots, that would be quite a fun lineup. The Twins outlook is very solid.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Things will be ok. Think about who should be in the starting lineup or on the travelling squad in ‘25: Julien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Kiriloff, Jeffers, Martin, Rodriguez, Castro and, maybe one or two other minimum salary/arbitration position players with Jenkins on the way. Add in Correa, Buxton and Vasquez and that’s it for non pitchers. That totals about $75MM. Btw, that team is young, but still has excellent experience and senior leadership. We should be able to cobble together a pitching staff for another $75MM, especially if Ryan, Ober, and Varland plus one or two prospects round out the starters with Lopez, Paddack and maybe one other. All is good, the future is bright. Just hope we don’t overthink it - add a starter, pick up Kepler, trade Polanco and let the kids play.
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