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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The narrative that the Twins were screwed against LHP probably took hold last season when the injuries started really piling up and the offense really struggled in August and September. heck, in my head I thought for sure the Twins had lost 3 straight to a bad Texas Rangers squad that ran out 3 crappy lefties and ate our lunch. Turns out memory is bad: we only faced 1 lefty starter during those 3 games (we in fact beat a crappy lefty in the first game of the series, before dropping the next 3). Maybe the bigger problem hitting anyone was the fact that Jake Cave was starting.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm definitely still a fan of Martin, and I hope that he can have a good, healthy season this year to show what he can bring to the table. I like having him in AAA and while I think it's unlikely he'll play much SS in MLB, this isn't a case of a player not having a position: he'd probably be above average at least at 2B, above average in CF, and with his range a plus defender in LF. (not sure how well his arm plays at 3B, but he'd likely field the position well?) he could legitimately be a super-utility player that can cover anywhere except SS & C. We'll see where he lands as a hitter. He'll definitely make a lot of contact, draw some walks, and get hit by pitches, so the on-base % will be good...can it be great? It could be. If it's not, then it would help a lot if he shows some gap power to prop that slugging up. He doesn't need to hit a ton of HRs to succeed, but if he collects enough doubles and triples with that speed to land consistently in the .380-.400 range then it'll be enough. Power development is often the last tool to come along, so he might be able to keep inching it up.
  3. jmlease1
    Part of the problem is Urshela doesn't profile very well as a utility infielder, especially based on what we think we know of how the Twins view him. They don't think he can play SS as anything other than in an emergency, they don't appear to see him as a 2B option (and he's only played 23 innings there in his MLB career, none since 2017), and his bat plays less well at 1B (presuming he can play a good enough 1B...which seems likely, but is unproven, since he's had a total of 7 innings there in his MLB career, likely as an emergency option). Farmer shows out positional flexibility much better and frankly so does Gordon: Urshela only has 100+ innings at 2 positions in his MLB career. Farmer & Gordon (in only 2 seasons for Gordon) have 4. You can argue that's because Urshela is a starting quality 3B and that's where's he's been slotted in for his career...but he didn't become that guy until his 4th year in the majors. I don't disagree that the roster is still a bit lopsided with LH corner OF. But keeping Urshela and dropping Kepler only fixes part of that equation (more playing time for the other LH OF); there still isn't a good role for Urshela on this team unless you either push Miranda back to 1B or drop Miranda to the bench, which the Twins seem disinclined to do. I supported keeping Urshela on this team, but essentially swapping his roster spot for Farmer with Correa back as the starting SS makes sense to me. Gallo has always been the move that's seemed off to a lot of us, but it's worth noting that Gallo has fairly even splits, and doesn't need to be given the day off against every lefty that comes to town.
  4. jmlease1
    If the argument is we let Urshela go for too little...I get that. He was a quality player last season and the 3B market was thin. Of course, he's getting paid a pretty decent amount this season and there may be questions on whether or not he was going to be able to repeat the performance. But from the Twins perspective, the decision was about SS, not the OF. The Twins have less confidence in Urshela at SS than they do Nick Gordon (and they have very little faith in Gordon playing SS). They see Urshela as a 3B, and it's unclear if they see him as a viable player at 1B, though it doesn't seem unreasonable. But they felt confident in Miranda after his rookie season, so if he's got the starting gig at 3B, how does Urshela fit in a bench role? Along side Nick Gordon...not very well. If Farmer was going to be the starting SS, they needed a backup for the spot and Urshela can't do that (neither can Gordon). With Correa back in the fold, they still need a backup and Farmer fits that role very well, with proven positional flexibility in a number of spots. There's only so many spots on the roster, especially with the team carrying 13 pitchers. Urshela's a nice player, but Miranda is younger and cheaper, and has more upside. I still question the Gallo decision, but once that move happened there's just no room for another 3B on the roster.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm guessing he and other teams are all playing the waiting game. He doesn't want a minor-league "prove it" deal, teams he wants to go to are tight on their 40-man rosters right now, and the money will be better if someone has a significant injury in spring training. If he's training properly then it wouldn't take that long to get a reliever ready to go for game action, so he can wait without any real harm. He's an interesting flyer. I'd probably be ok gambling on the upside if it meant dumping Pagan, whom can't be trusted in any kind of high leverage situation anyways.
  6. jmlease1
    I wasn't looking to trade Urshela, and he's a useful player, but his value also declines if he's playing 1B same as Gallo or Kepler playing over there. And while Urshela provided more bWAR than Kepler last season, a fairly significant chunk of the difference was the fact that Urshela was healthy all season. (and there's no guarantee Urshela will be any good playing 1B; he's played exactly 2 innings there in his MLB career. Odds are decent, but for all Urshela's supposed positional flexibility, 90% of his games have come at 3B) I think it's likely that the Twins saw Urshela as basically being a 3B and felt Miranda was ready to take over the position. As a bench option, Farmer is a better fit (and maybe so is Gordon, especially if he could be an option to fill in at 3B against RHP) because he has a LOT more positional flexibility, especially at SS.
  7. jmlease1
    He seems like a solid pick with potential. He's got good contact skills and it's not surprising to see him collect walks in Rk & low A ball, but still good to see. For him to be more than a utility guy will require him to add power, though and it is a little concerning that he showed so little of it in his first taste at pro ball. It's possible that his senior season at VT was a bit of a fluke, and if it is, it will really limit him unless he's able to collect a LOT more singles. I don't mind seeing a college bat with some positional flexibility and potentially a higher floor coming in here.
  8. jmlease1
    RIP, Mike. Cancer sucks.
  9. jmlease1
    I struggle with knowing how to evaluate guys like Mercedes; 18 years old coming off rookie ball? You could tell me he's top ten or down in the 20's and I would probably go "sure?" Great start, and nice to see a guy with great speed showing some skill at the plate, but he's got a lot of levels to go. Festa looks like a player to watch this season. He took a significant leap last year and it'll be really interesting to see how he does in AA. The fastball looks legit and it's impressive to see him add the velocity. If he can refine his off-speed pitches, he could be another Varland-type player. If Wallner makes enough contact, he'll be legit. If he doesn't, then he's more like a left-handed Brent Rooker. I expect he'll dominate AAA, just not sure if he can handle MLB pitching consistently. Miller looks the part of a SS; it'll be interesting to see how his hit tool develops this season. He seems to be learning the strike zone pretty well, but he'll need some more hits. Might come as he matures and gets stronger. I expect to see him in high A this year. Canterino just needs health, but those bastards at Rice might have ruined his arm. He's got all the talent in the world, but I don't know if he can stay healthy enough to start. It's a shame.
  10. jmlease1
    Sure, but the question is about depth. And after last season's adventures (where we were already on our 10th starter before June, as noted above), clearly depth matters. I don't think anyone is saying the Twins have a better rotation than Cleveland, but the depth we have (both in MLB and in AAA) arguably makes us better able to withstand injuries this season. Chicago might be in big trouble if any of their starters get hurt/suspended early. Lynn only made 21 starts last season and now he's 36. Clevinger might have Bauer-ed his season.
  11. jmlease1
    since this topic is about the OF, I'm going to skip over all the other stuff, but I'm unclear why you're wondering about our CF position. Buxton is an elite player when he's on the field, Taylor is an elite defender in CF and starter quality at the position (and he's the backup), they have 3 other guys on the 26 man roster right now who can play CF in Gordon, Gallo, and Kepler, and Celestino is waiting in AAA. This is the deepest CF we've had in quite a long time. So what exactly are you wondering about?
  12. jmlease1
    They 100% do not think Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. If they were convinced of that, Gallo would likely not be here, they would not have looked at dealing Kepler in the offseason. They know that's a fluke year. They are thinking that he will hit with a little more power than last season, which was far and away his worst power production as a major leaguer, and betting that he'll still play quality defense, take walks, and hit around .230. (BTW, Gallo did basically replicate those 2019 numbers for like 2/3 of a season in Texas in 2021. I doubt the front office expects to see that, but it's hardly crazy to think he might produce a season like the 2021 total, and that 121 OPS+ would have tied for 4th on the Twins last season. It won't be aesthetically pleasing to a lot of fans, but it might be productive...)
  13. jmlease1
    The defense should be spectacularly good...even if there are injuries. Which is pretty cool. I really do enjoy seeing great outfield defense: watching guys go back on a ball and making that leaping catch (especially against the wall or stealing a HR), flying in with the diving catch, making that perfect throw to cut down a runner, etc is so much fun. So I'm excited to see what this group can do to frustrate the ever-livin' crap out of opposing hitters by catching everything in sight, etc. There are fair concerns about the offense: Gallo & Kepler are likely to be low average hitters at best, and that's less fun, and sometimes not very productive. But a healthy-ish Buxton should still hit in the .250 range along with a decent enough OBP and an excellent SLG, Larnach has shown stretches that he can be a complete player, and Nick Gordon is showing to be a quality hitter. Taylor will not be great, but he's not helpless at the plate: he'll slap some singles and get a few walks. The floor isn't too bad at all...just not as aesthetically pleasing, because there will be a lot of Ks out there. The ceiling is pretty crazy. Best defensive OF for sure. Best overall? It could happen, and it wouldn't require too outlandish an increase in production from guys, mostly just average health and a movement towards career averages for some guys. Kepler's power was completely absent last season...probably had a lot to do with the busted toe. Maybe Gallo was just in an 18 month NYC funk. Larnach had a solid first month, caught fire, and then fell apart after getting hurt. Best overall is possible. Twins have upside, depth, and talent. They are ridiculously good defensively, with 5 guys that look like they are quality to elite defenders. 5! Could be very fun. We're coming up on spring training. Why not be optimistic?
  14. jmlease1
    College bats should advance more quickly, but Shuffield certainly did well, jumping that many levels. It will be interesting to see what he does with more reps. Might be small sample size, might be diamond in the rough. (sadly, it's usually small sample size, but rooting for him!) I certainly didn't expect much from him, but I love it when guys take advantage of their opportunities. Curious to see where he starts the season and what position he plays.
  15. jmlease1
    Really impressive debut from Rodriguez. I think it's going to be interesting how quickly the Twins push him; he's still so young, but he absolutely raked in his first taste of pro ball at 17! It's not like this was just a handful of ABs either: 200+ ABs ain't nothing. He's got a lot of levels to go through, but it sure would be fun to have one of these teenage signings jump up a little faster and not spend 3 years in rookie ball. Balazovic had a really rough year. Hopefully he can throw it out, come in to camp healthy and strong this year, and do a reset. He's still very talented, and with the depth we have in the rotation there shouldn't be any pressure for him to immediately nail everything and make his MLB debut. (right now he's clearly behind Varland, SWR, and Winder, and Ober could end up starting the season in AAA too) Hope he can shake it all off.
  16. jmlease1
    It seems worth trying occasionally?
  17. jmlease1
    He's likely to get playing time. Twins like to rotate players and ensure that guys aren't getting beat up through attrition. Gordon does have positional flexibility (even if his best position is probably LF right now, he's passable at 2b & 3b and it wouldn't surprise me to see him give Miranda a break against the occasional righty) and enough speed/baserunning ability to be a late inning sub as well. Injuries will happen (hopefully fewer serious/lengthy ones) and they'll need Gordon to play. We are not a team that lets guys sit on the bench and do nothing (which is why I'm unthrilled about Pagan being in the bullpen LOL)
  18. jmlease1
    I was definitely on the Wil Myers train. Thought he made sense as a RH bat who could play some corner OF/1B/DH. I still question the wisdom of the Gallo signing, but I understand the need for OF depth after last year's disaster. If he clears the mendoza Line on his BA, he'll likely be a productive overall hitter for us with his power and patience. And he'll do well in the field. he just can't bat .160 like he has for the last 18 months... BA is not the best stat for determining overall value, but it's weirdly a great indicator for how Gallo is going?
  19. jmlease1
    Prepare to be disappointed?
  20. jmlease1
    I do think it's a weakness in most organizations, though. the sunk-cost fallacy is one of the hardest to overcome, especially in sports. I don't think Pagan is going to be in any save situations early in the season, you know? but that means you should be able to get equal value or more from someone else without giving the fans something to make ourselves crazy over. (I doubt it'll be an issue in the clubhouse; they're not going to all get a "loser mentality" or some such because pagan blew a hold)
  21. jmlease1
    I don't know that it means all that much to have Enlow at 25 and Headrick at 22? Flipping them probably doesn't say much about their ability to succeed and advance. Enlow's younger at the same level. Headrick's healthier. As prospects they're sort of on a similar tier of "some good things here, but questions remain", I guess.
  22. jmlease1
    Twins are definitely not afraid to do their off-season work in January! It's probably not always going to work out, but overall it seems to be pretty respectable this year. Obviously re-signing Correa defines the off-season. It doesn't matter how it happened, it got done. Some people are going to call it luck, others will be more willing the credit the work of the front office (probably all depends on whether you went into the offseason wanting this regime to be fired or not), and a lot of us just don't care: he's here. I'm still not wild about the Gallo move, and really wish the Twins had looked to go with a RH bat who could play corner OF/1B/DH. The risk is lower on Gallo for one year, his defense is like to still be very good to excellent out there, and the power is almost certainly still there...but he's been a bad hitter since leaving Texas. It wasn't just NY; the change of scenery in LA didn't do anything for him. he's simply not a major league player if he hits .160 We'll see if he can make enough contact. I'm liking the Farmer move a lot more now that he's not going to be expected to start, but I know we should probably pump the brakes a little and not expect him to be this super-sub who routinely destroys lefties wherever he plays. But it is a role that fits well on this roster. I still want Pagan moved. I just don't want him in this bullpen, and I think the FO is making a mistake in continuing to try and "fix" him. At least this year he's not going to be expected to take high-leverage roles early or often, but I just see him as a guy whose performance isn't going to match his stuff. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet, admit you're wrong about a guy, and move him on. If another team fixes him, that's the risk you have to take, but on a reliever like him it's not that impactful. Reduce the fans PTSD and let him go.
  23. jmlease1
    Ooof, Sabato. Not sure I would have put him in the top 30. Think there are a few guys on the outside looking in that have more upside, more tools, and more hope. The power is really impressive, and it's great that he takes walks, but his inability to make contact in A-ball and AA speaks poorly of his future. It's going to be harder and harder as he advances to collect those walks, and pasting mistakes just isn't enough to make you a major-league hitter. the lack of any real defensive upside hurts him too. I'm very very down on him. Sands probably needs to transition to relief, IMHO. He's clearly behind Varland and Woods Richardson (not to mention Ober) in the AAA starter ranks, and even with his struggles Balazovic might still be past him. I'd say Winder is ahead of him too, which doesn't leave him a lot of opportunity to move up as a starter. But adding a tick to his fastball and with that slider? He could be a weapon in the bullpen and it's a transition I'd like to see him make. I'd like to see Rosario in Cedar Rapids (and out of the FSL) to see what his hit tool looks like in high A. I think he's an interesting prospect if he can bring the Ks down. Severino did a great job on promotion to AA; it'll be interesting to see how he progresses this year, especially if he stays healthy. For this far down the list, I like him quite a bit as a guy who could advance up. You can never have too many hitters coming through the minors, and his K rate is fine as long as he keeps that kind of a triple slash IMHO.
  24. jmlease1
    Miranda's year two is going to be a very interesting one. Can he punish LHP pitching consistently and be one of the players that will balance out their plethora of LH (mostly OF) bats? Can he make the counter-adjustments to what pitchers were doing to him later in the year? Will he be able to improve defensively at 3B with that being his primary position rather than bouncing around and being asked to play more 1B? The projection systems are pretty high on him overall; if he turns in a season similar to what Steamer or Zips are projecting then he'll have a pretty good year and be an important contributor. I'm a big fan of Miranda; his breakout season wasn't just impressive, it was staggering. He absolutely crushed AA & AAA pitching the entire season. He overcame a horrendous start in the MLB debut to really get a handle on what he needed to do, and was an important contributor. (A lot of players stink in their first taste of MLB and need to go back to the minors to adjust and prepare. Miranda battled through it and got on track on the fly and that impressed me.)
  25. jmlease1
    I think the first job this FO had was to modernize the research department, then start rebuilding the farm system. The group they inherited over-achieved the first season of this regime. the 2019 club looked pretty great (minor illusion on the juiced ball it seems), but was a pretty different team already...and was better than the Molitor versions. I think they did try to augment what they had in that squad (adding Donaldson & Maeda, for example) but it didn't happen. Maybe because of COVID, maybe because they made the wrong moves...but I don't think they assessed the 2017 team all that incorrectly. A rotation counting on Mejia, Colon, and Hector Santiago?
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