jmlease1

It does seem to be more often and more impactful this year, but maybe I'm just remembering the bad calls on the strike zone more readily this season. It feels like there's more inconsistency (which is bigger problem than just having a wide or high zone), especially late in games. The Twins rough and unlucky record in 1-run games magnifies it all, of course.

Making a change on players who signed at 16 wouldn't impact any of the players you've listed, though. I think it would be a mixed bag for the players: it would reduce some of the freedom (fewer players getting minor-league free agency at age 22), but also might position younger players to have a better development track if teams aren't having to make a decision on a low-A ball guy as early. I'm literally only suggesting this be considered as an adjustment for players who sign before they are age 18. Ober, Wallner, Ryan, Varland, and Julien all were college players, which is the biggest reason they got their later starts in pro ball. But none of them were super-high picks either (Wallner was the only 1st round pick in the bunch and he was a supplemental pick; none of the others went above round 7) whereas Buxton and Correa were two of the absolute best prospects in the country, being the 1st and 2nd overall picks in their draft. So the comp is a little out of whack: Buxton and Correa didn't just get more cracks at paydays because they started at 18. they got it because they were the absolute best talents.

There's a reasonable argument that the clock maybe shouldn't start ticking on them for Rule 5 service time until they hit 18 or something. Because it can be pretty tough on the roster spots to protect a guy in A-ball who is still 2-3 years away, but is already pushing his service time because he was signed internationally at 16. Especially when they haven't played full-season pro ball for their first 2-3 seasons.

they also had 14 hits? (and took 5 more walks. walks are "boring" too, though) Difficult spot for Rocco with the pitching in the 7th. Gray was really good to that point, and then started to lose the plot. If you leave him in and he gives up the Big Fly, you get buried for it. If you pull him and the bullpen can put out the fire, you get buried for it (like he's getting slammed here). It's something of a no-win situation: if the players can't get the job done, the manager is going to get whacked (especially by the people who have been gunning for the manager all season). Storybook return for Royce indeed. Love to see it. Everything we know about him to date says "good dude", and he deserves this. Looking forward to watching Royce Lewis more.

Murphy looked like he could be a league-average hitter and decent defender at catcher, and those are hard to find. Turns out, he had already reached his hitting peak at age 24. Trading Hicks was a reasonable move, but the return turned out to be dreadful, and maybe the old FO should have known better. There's a pretty good argument that they should have had an idea that his 2015 performance was a fluke rather than an indicator of his future. The BABIP was unsustainable, he wasn't hitting the ball particularly hard, his xBA and xSLG suggested he was getting lucky too, and he'd never had a really great hitting season in the minors either. (excepting a 9 game cup of coffee in rookie ball in 2009, he never topped an .800 OPS for a full season at any level) It's a definite miss in player evaluation for that front office. Moving Hicks at the time was a smart decision at the time; there was a real question if he was going to hit enough, but had solid value as a defender and still had some upside offensively. They were trading from strength and depth and moving a player that wasn't going to be in their plans as more than a 4th OF before he got expensive while his value looked pretty solid. The thought process there was good, but the failure was in player evaluation on the other end. And you have to wonder if they were trading for need rather than trying to get the best player they could. Suzuki was solid, but they had basically nothing behind him...and they appear to have over-estimated the level of talent the 2015 team had, despite their record. Rough period of talent evaluation here for the Twins; this was also the year they signed Byungho Park too. There's a reason they cleaned house in the front office.

Severino is having himself a very nice season. He's an interesting prospect. The Ks are a little worrisome, but he's hit at every level for the Twins (excepting a brief power outage in the FSL, but considering he immediately started pounding the ball when he got promoted, it looks very much like a FSL blip not a problem). The power looks real, he gets on base...does he have a defensive position? Looks a little wobbly at 3B, unfortunately. Brooks Lee seems to have gotten himself back on track. Wasn't too worried about him, but it's good to see a young player dig himself back out after a tough couple of weeks at the plate. Kala'i Rosario keeps on hitting. He's going to be pushing for promotion this season at this rate. (also, anyone else find these 6 and 7 game series in the minors to be a bit weird? I guess it cuts down on travel costs for the clubs a bit, but it's got to be a bit odd to face the same team that many times in a row)

Wild day for Wallner, who looked excellent at the plate and a bit lost in the field. The throw to get the runner at second was fantastic, but it was also on a ball he should have caught. Jorge Lopez is definitely in a bit of a bad patch right now, which is too bad; this team needs him to be his shutdown self, especially with Jax scrabbling. We're definitely in a bit of a pinch with both of those guys out of sorts, and I'm not sure we want to be too reliant on Brock Stewart (who has done the job, though). Nice to see Julien looking comfortable at the plate. His bat is a nice boon. Props to Willi Castro for doing the job wherever he's been asked to go and whatever he's been asked to do. I wasn't thrilled about his signing, but he's turning out to be a useful utility guy and the flexibility is a real asset.

I'm on record as saying that baseball managers have less overall impact on the game than a lot of other pro sports. A lot of the impact that a manager has is behind the scenes in keeping the clubhouse together and managing all the personalities...which is something we mostly don't see and can't know for sure if he's doing a great job or not at, unless something bad breaks out and someone talks to a reporter. We haven't really seen anything like that where there have been anonymous comments in the press crapping on the manager; the closest has been the Sonny Gray stuff about wanting to pitch deeper in games...and that's been pretty overblown (IMHO) in terms of how much actual criticism of the manager it really was (perhaps by people who already had an agenda against Rocco?). The overall quality of managing in MLB is better now that it was 20 or 30 years ago, but that's also flattened out the impact of managers, I think. There's a handful in the league that are superior, showing a consistent ability to not only keep their clubhouse in order, but also manipulate their lineups to their advantage, handle the bullpens well, not make mistakes in game management, etc. There's a handful that seem to step in it often, can't get out of their own way, and aren't up to the task. Most of them fall into a muddled middle where most outsiders look at them and think they're probably fine, but will have some quirks that drive the locals batty, or become focal points for the fans when things are going perfectly, but are maybe only noticeable to people watching the team every day. Rocco lands in the middle for me. He's doing what the front office wants in terms of general strategy and approach. He seems to handle the clubhouse well, and does a better job of managing his lineup and bullpen than some other Twins managers. He's been more conservative than I'd like in some things and overly aggressive in others...but in the final analysis he's been generally fine. When his teams have talent and health, he's won. When they don't, he's not likely to manufacture it out of nothing. I don't think Rocco has done anything worth firing him; unless the front office gets swept out at the same time a lot of the stuff people find deeply offensive about Rocco as a manager will still be happening under the next guy. They're still not going to be playing a lot of small ball, they're unlikely to be stealing tons of bases (until the players turn over more), they won't be bunting a lot, and they're still going to have hitters that strike out a lot. They're still going to take out starters earlier than some people will like, and they're not going to have a 90's era style closer. They're still going to take an analytically-driven approach to baseball. So who are you going to get that will be demonstrably better than Rocco? Firing him will make some fans happy in the short term, but it will take little time for those fans to turn on the next manager for the exact same reasons, so what's the point? If healthy enough, this team should contend for the division this season and if they get in the playoffs anything could happen. (I think they're better positioned to win in the playoffs with this squad than many of their others than have struggled in the playoffs)

I'm not super worried about Rodriguez; he's coming off an injury and not everyone is Royce Lewis. The talent is great and I think he just needs the time to get back into a groove. He's also adjusting to a new level, so the slow start isn't a huge shocker. SWR was the big surprise to me. I really liked the way he was profiling and he did well in his cup of coffee in MLB so to see him struggling in AAA so far this season was not something I saw coming. He's had stretches where his control has wobbled before so hopefully he can get it back together. Salas is hard to know. He's pretty young, and sometimes it takes a while for these toolsy kids to figure it how to translate it into production. But it's a little concerning seeing such a big jump in Ks, no power, and a loss of plate discipline.

He's had some injuries, so it looks like they're trying to build him up slowly. He's very talented, but only 20, so I'm sure they're trying to make sure they do right by him and are being cautious about his development. YMMV on whether they're being too cautious? I would like to see him start going deeper into games, but the other end of the spectrum is Matt Canterino whose arm and MLB career may have been ruined by overwork at a young age at Rice (the poster child college for running up pitch counts).

Love Royce. Seems like a really great guy, love his positive energy and enthusiasm, and looking forward to seeing him show his talent and drive. He's had a really impressive rehab. It would have been totally reasonable for someone who has played as little as he has (because of injury, pandemic, and injury again) to struggle as he got back on the field, at least a little. He just refuses to accept barriers, apparently.

I'm not sure people are really saying he's improved at this point, more that he's healthy and showing his talent again. The HR/9 is a little high, but it doesn't take much to bump that number (the difference between where he is right now and his career average is literally like 2 HRs) so it's not particularly concerning for now. If he stays above 1 HR/9 all year? That will be less great. Honestly, the most important stat for Enlow is right now he's averaging 5+ innings per start. More healthy innings for this kid, please.

I'm a fan of Moran. he's always going to be a little wild at times, but that change-up is ridiculous and can bail himself out of trouble (that he usually creates for himself). He's a risky pitcher to bring in with men on base, but I have a fair amount of confidence in him to hold down any part of an opposing lineup. (I'm less inclined to think Castro has much of a future, despite him doing solid work as a stop-gap lately)

Good to see Lee have a good game since he's been scrabbling a bit at the plate. Royce Lewis is something else. Apparently long layoffs mean little for him! He's definitely putting himself on track for a call-up if and when he gets done with his rehab assignment. Enlow is looking like he's ready to reclaim his prospect status. Good for him.

I think the earlier comment might have been a "the twins offense is garbage right now and so is Brooks Lee at the plate" bit of snark.

Cossetti earned the promotion, glad to see it. Looking forward to seeing how he does against better competition. If he can keep hitting and stick at catcher, he's going to jump up on the TD prospect lists. (Unless he goes absolutely berserk as a hitter he'll never crack the national lists; he'll be considered to be too old) Did someone slip Kala'i Rosario the TD updated prospect list? he seems to be taking his exclusion personally. :P It'll be interesting to see if he can keep this up and/or get an early promotion to AA. He's doing a great job taking walks, he's making consistent contact, and the power seems to be developing nicely. Emmanuel Rodriguez may be the higher rated prospect, but Rosario is out-performing him so far at the same age. (to be fair, Rodriguez is still working his way back from a not-insignificant injury) I would have no complaints about having two 20 year-old corner OFs (one from the right and one from the left-hand side) pushing each other through the system! A little worrisome that all of the Twins infield prospects at high A are scrabbling at the plate right now (Tanner Schobel is the "star" with a .684 OPS; neither Salas nor Miller are hitting a lick. and not that he's really a prospect any longer, but Cavaco is sadly looking like a total bust again after showing a little improvement last season in Ft Myers). It's still early, but it would be nice if at least one of these guys showed they had a capable bat.

Laweryson should be higher as a relief option, IMHO. He's been pretty impressive ever since going to the AFL and looks like someone who can get guys out. He hunted Ks pretty effectively at basically every level and has gotten harder to hit...he looks like the best internal option to me to come up and get guys out in the middle innings right now. Sometimes you have to trust performance over things like velocity. I'd have to say they need to keep Balazovic, SWR, and Headrick stretched out as starting options, because injuries just happen to starters, so again, they'd have to drop lower for me. Even if Balazovic isn't in a traditional starting role, I think they need to keep him throwing more innings. Ortega is just behind Laweryson for me. He looks like a fungible reliever in a lot of ways, but he's getting it done in Saint Paul and has the experience. Laweryson, then Ortega for me before trying to flip any of the starters. And leave Enlow alone. Dude is finally healthy and getting back on track. Gotta think long-term with him and set him up to be part of next season's "shadow rotation" waiting in Saint Paul. Winder has really disappointed,

Kyle Wright finished TENTH last season for the NL Cy Young. He had a nice season, but was nowhere near contending for the Cy. he got a couple of votes (a 4th and a 5th), that's it. Doesn't really look like an ace yet.

Great to see Royce Lewis looking recovered and healthy. rehab can be a tricky thing, but he seems to have managed it very very well. Julien seems to have handled his demotion without any trouble and looks ready for call up at any time. Great to have him available. If Polanco is going to miss real time, I think he should come back up.

Joe Ryan's K/BB ratio is siiiiiiick. I love having two starters who are being floated as Cy contenders. Is it likely to happen? eh, maybe not but hopefully it's not because of regression bringing them too far back down. If Cole keeps going like this he'll be hard to beat between his excellent performance, stature in the game, NY media market, and the fact that if Gray and Ryan both keep kicking butt like this they'll potentially pull votes from each other. Gotta say, I might be ok with someone else winning because voters couldn't decide if Gray or Ryan was most worthy by the end of the year. :)

Great to see Enlow healthy and pitching to his talent. He will be back on the 40-man after this season, and I will be surprised if he doesn't finish the year at AAA. He'll fit in nicely as rotation depth for next season and I think we will see him get his first chance in MLB in 2024. Severino still makes me nervous with the Ks, but he's doing everything else right at the plate. Be very interesting to see where he lands at the end of the season.

Looking forward to this series, and hoping the team bounces back after the Blue Screwjob and a disappointing result to the series. That late start saturday is going to be a bit rough, lol. I think our starting pitching gives us a chance in any series, but I wouldn't have minded skipping past Sandoval and Ohtani.

I'll admit, it has kind of felt like the FO was trying to convince itself that they hadn't made a mistake with Pagan, but I don't have any inside information. And as a low-leverage middle reliever he's been basically acceptable this season, and available. (say what you will about Pagan, and I can say plenty, there's never a question about whether or not he can take the ball) Despite the "Manfred Man" the Twins have been in 3 games this month that have gone 11+ innings; without those, I dunno if Pagan sees enough high leverage spots to matter. I don't particularly want Pagan on this roster, and going into this season I was pretty adamant that we could do better and for exactly the amount we're paying this guy. If there were trades available to the Twins I would have taken basically any of them and signed someone else. but they didn't do that, and I think that was a mistake by this front office. But I don't know how much we actually gain by cutting Pagan right now. We're on the hook for his salary regardless. No one is going to give us anything in trade, so that's not an option. And replacements are only coming from internal options in AAA or maybe AA right now. Maybe Laweryson would be better? or Balazovic? Maybe? But the biggest benefit is probably to the fan psyche, not really on the field.

Thiebar being hurt definitely causes more problems than I might have anticipated. Sands and Winder have both been very disappointing (really thought Winder might be a weapon in the bullpen, but maybe all of his injury travails have sapped his ability too much). If Jax can find his form from last season it would make a real difference. They need one more arm to keep pagan out of high leverage situations, and they basically need to find it in-house right now. (Help for the bullpen will be available later in the season, but basically nobody is going to be moving bullpen arms right now unless you make a colossal overpay)

Please show your receipts. he's been pitching in the 7th lately (with our starters usually going 6 innings, that's when relief starts) and his later inning work has been things like pitching the 11th when the bullpen was empty or finishing off the 9th when we were down 6. 13 of his 16 appearances have been when we were losing or ahead by 4+ runs. not exactly sure how this is a Rocco failure.