TopGunn#22

I would say Kepler is a possibility, but a radical change in his approach has to happen. Not sure if max is being "stubborn" or if the hitting coach should be replaced, but if max looks back on this season (and 2020) and doesn't realize he's playing himself out of a starting position (on the Twins or any other team) he's not as smart as i thought he was. The Twins can't trade Kepler, because his value has crash-landed. They have to hang onto him at least for 2021. Jeffers may be a bounce back candidate, but with Garver and Rortvedt, I see Jeffers being traded for pitching. To Miami. Simmons and cave will need to bounce back with some other team. They need to be released. Arraez could be a candidate, but I'm looking at options to trade him for pitching. Arizona is a possibility. Gordon and Austin Martin can be the utility players. Arraez needs to be leveraged for pitching. Garver is someone I would look to have a better season in 2021. Time is running out on Sano. Next year needs to be his .240 40 HR's 100 RBI year. Maybe it's for us. Maybe it's for Colorado.

That's what I've been thinking Max should be doing for some time. He does run well. Sacrifice some "power' to make more consistent "contact" and he'd be an improvement. If I pencil in Pineada #4, Ryan #4 and Ober #5 that means I need to sign a top flight SP as my #1 (Rodan, Ray, Stoman, Gausman) and I need to trade for my #2. (Alcantara, Montas, Bassitt). If I could somehow acquire an Eduardo Rodriguez or James Kaprillian I would have some "depth" while still having a Dobnak or Gant around. With this approach, I can see how things look for Balazovic, Winder, et al next season and if they're ready move em' up. I also still wonder, that while Sano is looking better, doesn't that also make him at least a LITTLE more viable as a trade candidate ? Not sure what Cron's status in Colorado is after this season, but if the DH comes to the N.L. I think the Rockies could be very intrigued with Sano's potential mashing at Coors. Maybe a blockbuster for Marquez ? Settle for a solid vet arm like Jon Gray ? I'd have to monitor the trade values, because I believe Sano is currently a negative but maybe Sano can get out from being underwater and a deal could be made. An outfielder like Connor Joe is interesting to consider from the Rockies as well.

Cody, I like the premise of your article and the discussion has been stimulating. I would lean toward tony&rodney, Mike Sixel and others in that while each of these 3 are interesting, I want to sign a top arm (Rodon, Robbie Ray, Gausman) and trade for ESTABLISHED SP's (Alcantara, Marquez, Lauer), perhaps a pitcher of two from the A's (Montas, Kaprillian, Bassitt). We've established that there will probably be a payroll of $125-$140 million (if the ownership and FO deems a contending team is necessary next season---and they better). We could use a complete list of FA pitchers (both SP's and RP's) as well as a nice list of speculative trade options. I'm not good at providing that. The FA's should have an estimated "cost" attached to them. (Rodon or ray 5-years $125 million). In my estimation, those two have done more this season than Berrios ever has. They would be worth the $125 million. We can speculate all we want on what it would take to acquire Sandy Alcantara and/or Frankie Montas via trade by using something like Baseball Trade Values. But with ALL the young pitchers we have striving to reach the big leagues and with "health" a factor for many of them looking to 2022, I'd rather focus on getting SP's with solid big league credentials as opposed to a "project." We have plenty of "projects." Much like needing a SS to either be the "bridge' to Lewis or a longer term fix if Lewis is OF bound, we need some solid major league pitchers who will give the FO time to sort out who will "make it" from the prospects and who probably won't. Pitching is a fungible asset (much like QB's in football). You can never have enough, and if you have an excess, you can always trade them to shore up other areas (much like the Marlins could this off-season, or the A's/Tampa Bay).

gunnarthor, the Marlins would do this because they need a catcher for the future and they are loaded with arms. They are already playing Alfaro in LF because he's not very good defensively but shows the potential to be a decent hitter. If he was their catcher of the future, he'd be playing catcher exclusively. Jeffers is very good defensively and shows the potential to be a decent hitter. Larnach is the kind of high upside offensive player they would take a risk on (unlike Kepler, who just seems like he's hit a ceiling). The Twins (and I) do not like giving up young, controllable talent like Jeffers and Larnach, but we need a major league ready arm...NOW. And Alcantara would fit the bill. There's always a chance Miami says "no" and the Twins would have to look elsewhere. But as loaded with young arms as they are and with their need at catcher REALLY high as well as offense in general, I think a trade like like this has a chance. And from a Baseball Trade Values sense, it's fair.

O.K. I'll give this a try: C Garver, Rortvedt 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS FA C. Taylor, Galvis, Iglesias LF Arraez/Refsnyder/Rooker CF Buxton RF Kepler (his trade value is too low. Twins are better off sticking with him for now). DH Sano We will trade Jeffers 27.9 and Larnach 28.7 (56.6) total value to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara (56.6 total value). Sign Danny Duffy SP. SP: Alcantara, Duffey, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Gant, Dobnak Sign or trade for a real closer: THAT GUY, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Theilbar, Minaya. I can see Austin Martin and Miranda being called up SOON (service time games).

Good article Cody and good discussion. I also think the Twins keep him. While it would be nice to have a team take his salary off our hands if we accepted a middling prospect the ONLY way that would actually be favorable for the Twins would be if they invested the money saved into "top shelf" pitching (no Happ's, Shoemaker's or Colome's) or a starting SS. But he IS a solid bat in the lineup and he will be used at DH as well. It almost comes down to a Sano vs Donaldson question and as low as both players trade value is right now they are probably just better off hanging on to them. Doc Bauer is correct in pointing out that next year's trade deadline will be interesting. If the Twins are "contending" that would tell me that many of the pitching deficiencies have been addressed. it would also portend that our offense is getting what it needs out of Sano/Donaldson/Buxton and others. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know what the situation will be. But I see a Donaldson or Sano trade being much more likely at next year's trade deadline. But at this point, and depending on what our payroll limit is next year, we're better off keeping Donaldson.

I just shake my head at the "approach" many Twins hitters have at the plate. And by that, I mean they DON'T seem to have any approach. Kepler is a prime example. The Twins need a new hitting coach in the worst way. I'm not saying that will "solve everything" but it's obvious to me the current coach is not up to the task. I agree with Doc that the offense has the "potential" to be fine next year and the primary focus HAS to be on pitching. That said, a different hitting coach would help with the current talent that needs "improvement" that being Kepler, Sano (who has been better these last 4-6 weeks) Garver, Kiriloff and Larnach. I do think a steady vet SS like Iglesias or Galvis as a bridge to Lewis/Martin or whoever, is a good idea as well as a 4th OF'er who bats RH. Those are minor moves but should be "on the list." I like the fact that Torres was suggested. It makes for a good conversation. But I would vote "No" as well. We need a glove at SS and that's not Gleybor.

I agree with Doc. Why Arraez isn't hitting leadoff EVERY single game is beyond me. He sets the table. That's what leadoff guys are supposed to do. Rocco just can't seem to "get" that. Speaking of Rocco, what is this obsession with presenting Colome with save opportunity after save opportunity ? Any Twins fan who was SHOCKED Colome gave up the tying 3-run BOMB to Judge yesterday hasn't been paying attention. It was INEVITABLE. All he's done this year is give up HR's late in games. Why would we expect any other outcome. Test somebody else rather than just handing the ball to Colome. I will grant Sano his recent production. I was and still am all for trading him to somehow acquire better pitching. However, he's such a negative trade asset that we're probably better off keeping him and hitting him 7th. That kind of power near the bottom of your order can be beneficial.

I still maintain that 2022 (and this coming off season) SHOULD be the make or break for this FO. They have done some good things. Our minor leagues are stocked with good, young pitching prospects. But in 5 years here they have had two epically BAD off seasons. They need to sign Buxton (he who bunts with 2 on and nobody out in the bottom of the 9th and nobody out) and sign one A+ FA starter, TRADE for one A+ starter, sign a middling vet for the #3 spot (a Pineda, Eduardo Rodriquez etc...type) and bring in a bona fide closer and sign a "bridge" SS until we have a better idea of what Lewis & Martin can do. That's their assignment. If they fail miserably they will have a 50% off season failure rate in 6 years and a change (I have no idea who, that's purely up to the Pohlad's to figure out) will be needed. Rocco is included in this. If you're going to make a change, make it a clean sweep.

Speaking of bunting...with 2 on and nobody out in the 9th inning in Friday, 9/10's game, in what scenario is the BEST thing for Buxton to do but BUNT ??? Buxton is a terrible bunter. He's supposed to be a future MVP candidate and he's BUNTING with the winning run at 2B ? I would love to know if that was HIS bright idea or if it was a signal from the bench. If it was Buxton's, his psyche is too fragile. I know he's been slumping since he came back but geez !! Would Vlad jr, Soto, Tatis jr. Mookie, Trout, Ohtani, Tim Anderson, Freddie Freeman, et all BUNT ?? But back to winning off seasons. You can set your team up to effectively compete with a strategically successful off season or you can doom them to fail if you make boneheaded moves. As I've pointed out and will do so again: The White Sox signed Hendricks, Lynn and Keuchel. Our FO countered with Colome, Shoemaker and Happ. Game. Set. Match.

I'm firmly on the fence with this FO. They DID inherit a solid core, and YEARS of BAD Twins teams under Terry Ryan had helped stock the minor leagues with high draft picks. This FO took a Twins team that Molitor miraculously guided to a playoff spot in 2016 (and earned him Manager of the Year) and then completely spit the bit in that off-season to gift Twins fans with the abomination that was 2017. They DID win back to back division titles in 2019 & 2020 but continued the Twins inability to even win ONE playoff game since the early 2000's (I would add that the FO's inability to make any kind of big splash in either 2019 or 2020 at the trade deadline didn't help either). And it's fair to point out that as a whole, the division was at a low point in those years. The division title was ripe for the taking. And now we see the fruits of a disastrous off season that saw our division rival White Sox completely checkmate us in every conceivable move, trade, acquisition. This FO has an "incomplete" report card. They COMPLETELY FAILED in 2017 and THIS year. A bad move here or there can be excused, in fact, should be expected and accepted. Nobody bats 1.000 in personnel decisions. But I maintain this FO has had those two real clunkers and frankly with "analytics" guiding us, I expected better. I didn't expect the two epic fails they've blessed Twins fans with in 2017 and this year. I maintain that "relevance" in 2022 is crucial, to the team, the fanbase and this FO. They better hit a HOMERUN this off season.

He's pitching like his career depends on it. And it does. When you come out of nowhere (like Theilbar has) EVERY time you go to the mound is a chance for management to justify cutting you loose if you don't measure up. He certainly deserves a contract for next season. LH relief pitchers are a "commodity." I hope the Twins and Caleb can reach a deal that's fair.

I agree Mike. It should make the job easier for the Twins FO to go out and sign a SOLID FA SP, TRADE for a SOLID SP and then dumpster dive like they usually do for a "serviceable" vet like a Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez or a Dylan Bundy type (maybe Dobnak gets healthy). We've only seen a couple starts, but I like what I see. Except for one mistake pitch to the red hot Cubs rookie Schwindel, he's been VERY impressive. I think his slider is filthy, and as has been mentioned, his arm angle on his fastball makes his 91-94 mph SEEM faster. There sure is a fair amount of deception to his delivery. I hated to see Nellie Cruz go, but I knew he had to be traded. Not sure what we'll get with Strotman, but Ryan looks like a keeper. We will also have to wait and see how Balazovic, Duran, Canterino and Winder look this off-season and monitor their health closely.

At this point Rooker has played himself off the big league team. Every AB that cave gets is an embarrassment. Simmons has no future with this team. Just play Arraez in LF. I don't really care if St. Paul is battling for 1st place. The sole purpose of the minor leagues is to develop players and deliver them to the big leagues. GET. MIRANDA. UP.

You make a great point. The Twins have always spent for "QUANTITY" not "QUALITY." It's like Slick Rick of the Vikings always trading back to accumulate more and more 6th and 7th rounders instead of just drafting Tyler Johnson (#3 WR spot SOLVED) when he was sitting there. I GUARANTEE the Twins, if they spend the money on bringing Max Scherzer here, he will be worth every penny !! Now I get that Max would be crazy not to just stick with the Dodgers who will pay him more and give him a better chance for a World Series ring, but that's not my point. The point is, when you spend on QUALITY you lessen the risk. The wins and innings that kind of SP/RP give you add up to tremendous value for what you spent. Honestly, I don't know why this FO doesn't understand that. I thought they were brought here to replace the antiquated thinking of the Terry Ryan regime. Maybe this is a Pohlad "thing." It's hard to understand how the Twins have never figured this out.

Of course commenting NOW could be construed as "hindsight" but I don't remember too many (if any) commentators of TD pounding the table with enthusiasm with the moves the Twins FO made. I love heresthething's comment that the FO gets an A+ for STAYING WITHIN THEIR BUDGET !! That's hitting the nail on the head ! Look, as I've commented before, we were the two years running division champs but we knew the White Sox had been building and would present a significant challenge. While our ownership and FO watched the White Sox AGGRESIVELY go out and add to their team, the Twins sat on their hands and did nothing. We had rotation issues and a BP that lost significant talent and we...waited. And waited. I guess for "prices" to go down. You can chalk the 2020 off season up to "bad luck" if you want, but I maintain we got just what we deserved. The White Sox signed Hendricks...we signed Colome and Robles. The White Sox signed Lynn & Keuchel. We signed Happ and Shoemaker. The fact that virtually EVERY move made by the FO blew up in their faces was not "bad luck.' Their effort was tepid at best. The failed in EPIC FASHION. I'll make no excuses for them. In their 5 years they have not just failed, they have epically failed, in 2 of them (Molitor's last season and this one). A 40% EPIC FAILURE rate just isn't acceptable. Nobody's luck is THAT BAD. So, Ownership must decide if it's worth investing heavily ($140-$150 million payroll) to plug the holes of the sinking ship that is their ballclub. Do the Pohlad's have confidence in this FO that if given the financial resources to enhance the roster for 2022 AND build a bridge to 2023/2024 as the young arms brimming with potential mature and ascend to the major league club, this FO can "hit a Homerun" ?? If they do, then give them the resources to accomplish the task. If NOT, what does that say about our current FO ??

I agree guys. Bean lays it out nicely and honestly. This does indeed make it imperative the FO goes out and gets thru FA and trade, at least TWO above average pitchers. Signing a Ray, Rodon, Gausmen, Stroman, Duffy, type and trading for an Alcantara/Means type. And finally, I'd like to see them explore ONE risky signing of either Eduardo Rodriguez or Andrew Heaney. Both E-Rod and Heaney have better "stuff" than retreads like Happ and Shoemaker. So if they're going to gamble, do so with someone that has the potential to overachieve. The fact that we're considering Winder (rightfully so) and he's considered "somewhat under the radar" shows how desperately the Twins need to build a bridge from 2022 to 2023-2024. These young arms are going to mature at wildly different paces. And with no Berrios and Maeda to count on they will have to be serious enough to "intelligently" invest in quality pitchers to benefit them in the short term as well as a little bit longer term. As the young pitchers develop and matriculate to the major league team, the Twins can hold on to, or trade the veteran arms they brought in, depending on how the individual pitchers are performing and the Twins are competing.

I will disagree with your premise while still applauding an excellent, well thought out article stating your thoughts. And we really may not be that far apart in our reasoning. There are just too many innings to fill and too many young arms on the horizon that the Twins will want to protect to some degree for the Pohlad's and FO to be content bringing in retreads like Happ & Shoemaker for 2022. Fangraphs listed some players as 2021 call ups (Cole Sands) who probably aren't going to be up THIS season but could get a "taste" in 2022. That said, here's who they say will be "UP" sometime in 2021: Balazovic, Duran, Strotman, Joe Ryan, Miranda, Rortvedt, Gordon and Colina--Out for the season). Some of those guys HAVE been up, many have not...yet. I consider the entire list "possible" for 2022. here's the guys they list as 2022 (which I consider more 2023 if not LATE in 2022): Lewis, martin, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Wallner and Enlow--who has missed all of 2021 and may need all of 2022 in the minors. Here is a partial list of FA or trade targets the Twins could pursue. Of course it always comes down to WHAT do you have to give up, but here goes: Alcantara, Manaea, Bassitt, Eduado Rodriguez, Jon Gray, Stroman, Jon Means, Carlos Rodon, Danny Duffey (Robbie Ray/ Kevin Gausman---They would be expensive but we have $2-$22 million to work with that we are NOT paying Berrios. Thor is a pipe dream and he's too risky...I don't like a guy trying to pitch when the world knows he's not allowed to throw any breaking balls. But the guys listed here are huge upgrades to Shoemaker/Happ. Add in that Colome blew game after game after game to begin the year and 2021 was sour from the outset. 2022 does not have to be a throw-away year to "see what we have" in terms of young pitching. We're going to have plenty of opportunities to see what we have because there are PLENTY of innings to go around. I just don't want the Twins to simply submit to the White Sox in 2022. Bad stuff could certainly happen to the "mighty whitey's" that would allow for a Twins resurgence. Who on TD thought the Giants would be in 1st place on 9/4? Who on TD predicted the MARINERS would have the season they're having ??

Other than signing Buxton long-term (which is the #1 task of the Twins off-season) #2 is adding 3 veteran arms to the starting rotation. A #1, #2 and #3 either thru FA signing or Trade/Trades. The 3rd most important task is to fortify the bullpen. Indeed, a closer needs to be acquired, either thru FA (which WILL be expensive---think Kimbrel) or thru a trade, a younger arm, identified as closer material that can anchor the back end (think Joe Nathan trade result). Rogers is best as an 8th inning guy and occasional closer. Tampa Bay and Oakland are two good examples of teams that are able to identify these types of guys and go out and get them at a reasonable cost. The final task is to find a "bridge" SS. A Freddy Galvis/Jose Iglesias type to play 2022 as the regular SS, allowing Polanco to remain at 2B and giving Lewis and Martin time to further develop. Also, one or two of the young arms currently being used as starters could have an impact in the BP (Duran, Colina). I just don't want the mind-set for 2022 to be one of submission to the White Sox. They could suffer some misfortune in 2022 opening the door to possibly compete. Who in the heck thought the Giants would be in 1st place in the NL West on 9/4 ?? Everything was Dodgers, Dodgers, Padres, Padres. Who on TD would have predicted the kind of season SEATTLE is having ?? We are a horribly under achieved 2021 season removed from being the 2019 & 2020 division champs. The Twins are not devoid of talent. The FO squandered the seasons of 2019 and 2020 by not making a significant IN-SEASON move to put the Twins over the top either year. 2022's off season will be the biggest test ownership and the Twins FO has had. Are they up to the challenge ??

You make a good point Rosterman. I've been focused on a trade package that would bring sandy Alcantara (Marlins) to the Twins but either Manaea or Bassit, even as a possible one-year rental would be excellent acquisitions. The Twins need some veteran arms to bridge the gap between 2022 and when the plethora of young arms start to populate their roster. We may have 2-3 (maybe 4 guys) next season make a significant impact. Ober, Ryan, and I'm not completely sure after that. And each of these young arms will be "protected' by the Twins to not be over-used. It always depends on WHAT you have to give up. But Manaea and Bassit are quality pitchers. (MUCH more dependable than the Happ's and Shoemaker's of the world). Let's say we acquire Bassit and he has a good season in 2022. Then it's up to the FO to try to convince him to stay. You can NEVER have too much pitching. Especially in the new era of MLB where pitchers suddenly combust into flames once they pass the magical 100-pitch level.

Thank You for a good topic Nick, it's one we're all going to chew on throughout the Twins off-season. We will just have to see how committed the Pohlad's and FO is for 2022. I will say this: We were supposed to win 92 games this season and come down to the wire with the White Sox for the division title. Injuries and an epically BAD off season by our FO torpedoed that. I don't want to see the Twins just throw in the towel on 2022. What if injuries and other misfortune nail the White Sox in 2022 ? We have a LOT of young arms with talent and potential. But they won't all be coming in 2022. We need some veteran stability in the rotation to bridge the gap between those young arms being ready. We need 1-3 years. Ober and Ryan will certainly be in the mix. Pineda and Dobnak should be part of our "depth." If there's one thing that's obvious about starting pitching in the 2020's it's that you need "options." Gone are the days of 5, 6 or even 7 guys shouldering the load for an entire season. Guys like Heaney, Taillon, are #4 or #5's. Eduardo Rodriguez could be a #3 but he's always had health issues at some point in a season---he's worth a gamble, but I wouldn't be counting on 175 innings and an All Star appearance. Without Berrios they darn well SHOULD make a move where they bring in a #1 like Gausman, Rodon, Robbie Ray. SPEND THE MONEY. They need to bridge that 1-3 year gap. Where they should shore up #2 and #3 is with trades. I have proposed a trade of Kepler and Jeffers to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara on MLB Trade Values. The Twins are overpaying but Alcantara is 25 and talented. He would be a great target. The Marlins need a catcher of the future. They're already playing Jorge Alfaro in LF because his "D" is sub-par. Jeffers becomes their catcher of the future (I'm fine rolling with Garver, Rortvedt and Astudillo if it nets us Alcantara). There are other trade candidates like Means from Baltimore to consider as well. The starting staff: #1 Gausman/Ray #2 Alcantara, #3 Ober, Pindea, #4 E-Rod/Heaney #5 Ryan/Dobnak/Jax/Barnes/Balazovic/Strotman etc... If we sign a Heaney/E-Rod type for cheap that just gives the Twins another arm. Personally, I LIKE Heaney's potential. he seems to have great stuff but he always seems to leave a fat pitch up in the zone and gives up a 3-run HR. Maybe Johnson can fix that. I like E-Rod better than Heaney.

Eduardo Rodriguez is another LHP I wouldn't mind the Twins making a play for. He's youngish and has good stuff. Just need to keep him healthy. But they will need 2-3 VETERAN SP's for stability and let the young-guns fill out #4 & #5.

I get that we're not a "Big Market Team Like the Dodgers." We also aren't a "Small Market Team" either. The Twin Cities is Media market #15 in the nation. That means only 14 markets are "BIGGER" than the Twin Cities. We should not have a top 10 payroll. We also should be nowhere near the bottom 10 either. Ownership/FO had a chance to spend a little more in 2019 & 2020 when it looked like the pieces were in place to make a run (maybe win a playoff game??). But with the colossal failure of the FO in the past off-season, some serious money is going to be needed to be spent to begin a reset. The young arms will never be ready to contribute "enough" in 2022. Some will do fine, others will struggle and others won't even get a sniff of the major leagues. Some solid, proven, major league arms need to be added for the immediate future (2022) and to be a 1-3 year bridge as those young arms mature and matriculate up to the big league level. Any conversations between ownership and the front office that doesn't recognize THIS is setting the Twins up for further failure and frustrations for the fans. We've seen what the lack of a plan can do with the Afghan withdrawal. We're going to have to hear some solid "plans/strategy" coming out of our front office this off-season. Lack of a plan or confronting what the reality of the Twins current situation is not an option.

The Twins either invest in some actual proven major league arms (Rodon, Gausman, Stroman) and TRADE for one or two as well (Alcantara, Means, etc...) or we should vote with our pocket books next spring/summer to the mediocrity ownership and the front office has gifted us with. Attendance for Twins games is waaay down (it's harder to get a Saints ticket). TV ratings are waaay down. The Pohlad's can either invest in a better product, or watch revenues continue to fall (despite getting millions in TV revenue). How long will networks continue to fork out outrageous sums of money for pathetic rated programming ??

Glad to see Ryan get the call. It will make watching tonight's game interesting.