TopGunn#22

We are in pretty good shape coming home with Sonny Gray set to start. At least "on paper." For all those who hated and maybe still hate the Arraez trade, this is why the Twins had to do it. Lopez has been OUTSTANDING in the playoffs. The Twins had Polanco, Julien, Lewis and fast rising Brooks Lee. (you could even add Nick Gordon to that list based on his 2022 season). With Gray almost sure to leave (I'd love to see the Twins come up with a way to keep him) they are going to need to make a similar trade this off season. In addition to Gray, Maeda is probably moving on. Varland and Paddock will be counted on to step up, but you need more than 5 starters. Nobody makes it through an entire season without at least one stint on the I.L. Reviews of ball and strike calls in the Twins two game sweep of the Blue Jays showed the Twins were on the short end of calls that cost them over 2 and a half runs. The Twins are currently on the short end by almost 3 runs in the Astro series after 2 games (the corners of the plate for Verlander and Valdez have been HUGE, not so much for Twins hitters). This data is from reviewing the consistency (or lack thereof) of ball and strike calls in relation to the "pitch box." In other words, the Twins are getting hosed. This is why, despite the fact that I'm a baseball traditionalist, I'm looking forward to the eventual phasing out of home plate umps calling balls and strikes. The called 3rd strike on Castro on an inside pitch by Verlander in game #1 was terrible. Polanco should have hit a grand slam. Lewis should have followed up with a game tying HR. That one call changed the trajectory of that game. I'm looking forward to Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts or whoever, not "getting" the borderline call.

I think they are monitoring Buxton daily and we haven't seen the last of post-season roster tinkering if they are able to advance. As you've all been discussing though, just what do you get with this version of Buxton? Nothing he's done this year indicates anything positive. Despite a horrible batting average, low OB% and too many strikeouts, Taylor at least hit 20 HR's, stole over 20 bases (something Buxton has done once? twice?) and Taylor has played GREAT defense. (something Buxton has always done). I'm just not sure how beneficial having Byron would be. That said, no matter how this season turns out, I don't think Taylor ever comes close to what he did this year and Buxton cannot be counted on for anything in the future. This front office must come up with a long-term plan for CF for 2024 and beyond.

I agree DC, there were some VERY questionable called 3rd strikes on Twins hitters. Especially on Castro which would have loaded the bases prior to Polanco's HR. I can't wait for fully "robot" strike zones.

As soon as he did it, I was wondering if hitting 2 HR's in his first two post season AB's was a record. I had forgotten that Gaetti had done it in 1987! (WHAT KIND OF TWINS FAN AM I)???? And that Evan Longoria had also done it. Ironic that the club is exclusively 3B so far. Not sure what primary position Lewis will play in 2024 but he's certainly a 3B for 2023.

I really think Ober has earned the right to start game #1. Ryan has been far too shaky, that's obvious, but Ober has flat out earned it. Lopez and Gray in games #2 & #3 and then a Ryan/Maeda game #4. Ryan starts and maybe only goes 3 innings, possibly 4. Maeda gives you 2 or 3 innings. Finally, Lopez for game #5 if necessary. They have to keep Funderburk. When you have KH hitters like Tucker & Alvarez you need a LH to face them. You just can't go into a series with Houston with only ONE LH pitcher on your entire staff (much less the BP). In this scenario, I'm dropping Stevenson. We will also have to deal with the Buxton speculation for this next round. Did the last 3 days help him get any healthier? I doubt it, but I'm sure the speculation will bubble up. The starting pitching and bullpen has been outstanding so far but Houston, with hitters like Altuve, Bergman, Tucker, and Alvarez will be a challenge. And McCormick and Diaz have been solid for them (and Brantley is back). The Astro starting pitching hasn't been as dominant as in years past so hopefully our lineup hits better than the Toronto series. Nice to have put them away in 2 games so the staff is as fresh as could be expected. Nice to see that Rocco is using Stewart and Varland ahead of some of the shakier options he's had in the pen too.

Good to know the injuries to Correa and Duran are not serious. I would start Ober in Game one on his standard 5-days rest. I think Ryan's last 3 starts were unimpressive enough that Ober has EARNED the ball to start the game. I still think Ryan could be effective in an inning or two of relief, but at this point, based on who is throwing well and who isn't, our 3 SP should be Lopez, gray and OBER.

Varland came in and threw 2 pitches and the inning ended and then Theilbar came out to start the next inning. I will never quite understand the strategy of warming a pitcher up (and a VALUED pitcher you're going to rely on in the playoffs) having him throw 2 pitches, end the inning, and then remove him from the game even if a LH hitter was leading the next inning off. I'm just too old school to believe that a good pitcher can get a good hitter out regardless of the splits. THIS is why teams carry so many pitchers in the playoffs, even in a 3 game series.

They stayed away from his split finger fastball which just dives and normally induces a LOT of swings and misses. Gausman was pitching from behind in the count, running uphill from the first at bat with Julien. Twins hitters had a good scouting report/game plan and it worked. I've been saying in conversations about what our post season roster would/should look like that Royce Lewis is the "X" factor. The kid just has a knack, kind of like Kirby Puckett did. Hopefully Royce's hammy can hold up through the post season. I sure hop they win today because I'm not sure I trust Ryan to win a game #3 if needed.

I hope Rocco doesn't fall for the LH relief pitcher coming in early and PH for Julien and/or Kirilloff early. Leave them in. The "leverage situation" bullpen arms for the Blue Jays are all RH. I like how we've stacked our bullpen. Would LOVE to win in 2 because I don't trust Ryan at this point either. Ober should have beaten him out for SP #3.

I agree, Lewis is our "X" factor. Of all the players we are wondering about as the post season begins, he is the most vital. I don't know what to think of Buxton. The fact that there is considerable and legitimate debate over whether he should even be on the roster is telling. If this FO doesn't have a plan for CF next season that doesn't include Buxton they should be held criminally liable. He just cannot be counted on. I also agree that Joe Ryan pitched himself OUT of the rotation and into the bullpen and that Ober pitched himself INTO the rotation as a game #1 starter in the next round. We better win this series in 2 games. Lastly, I'm happy for Larnach but HE's the guy getting traded this off season, not Kepler or Wallner. Kepler has earned his option being picked up. They can let him play out next season and then determine if it's better to go with a younger guy or offer an extension. Track the development of Rodriguez and Jenkins. Wallner isn't going anywhere. With Larnach's pull heavy power swing, I'd monitor how Frankie Montas looks and put together a trade package that included Larnach to the Yankees. Larnach as a corner OF could hit 25 HR's for the Yankees. If Montas gets healthy, he could be the rotation replacement for Sonny Gray or Maeda. It could be a trade that benefits both teams.

When will the Twins announce their post season roster? Will Funderburk AND Paddock both be in the bullpen? Can we win in 2 games so we can skip Ryan and start Ober in game #1 of the next round? Will Buxton make the roster over Luplow? (what a statement that is for Buxton). Correa will be fine, but the "X" factor for the Twins is Royce Lewis. To make any noise they need him in the lineup.

If you're a cord cutter where do you find the game? Does KSTP-TV have the option to buy the game and air it?

I thought Paddock looked great, but I still think they need Funderburk to at least have another lefty in the pen, and at this moment Funderburk looks better than Theilbar. They should have both Paddock and Funderburk on the post season roster. I think Ryan is looking shaky as the #3 SP. His last 3 starts were not impressive. I would like to see Maeda in the pen, so I'm a little surprised Ober is starting today because if he looks good, HE should be our #3 SP. Maybe he only goes 2 or 3 innings with several bullpen guys able to step in and throw an inning or two. Heck, if we had to play a game 3 the Twins could go with a combination of Ober, Ryan, Maeda and Paddock (depending on how Lopez and Gray do). Larnach is looking better. Maybe he can rebuild some of his trade value for an off season deal. At this point, he's not overtaking Kepler or Wallner and Brooks Lee is pushing for a roster spot next year.

After what I saw of Joe Ryan last night I'm of a mind to hand the ball to Baily Ober for game #3 (if needed). Ryan looked good his first two starts once he was back, not so good in his next two. Last night was, for me, his chance to show he deserves the #3 SP spot. He failed. I know it's Coors Field but 3 HR's and 6 runs in 5 innings does not inspire confidence. Give Ryan the role of 1-2 innings out of the pen and give the ball to Ober if there is a pivotal game #3 or start Ober in game #1 for the next series. I like seeing Varland and Stewart in late game roles. Stewart gave up 3 hits and had to have Theilbar bail him out, but none of the contact was hard. He still looked good.

I just wish that Rocco trusts Varland and Stewart in the 7th/8th inning. I'd rather see those two in a tight late game situation than Jax or Pagan. If you're looking at the "RIGHT NOW" Varland is a force coming out of the pen and Stewart has been beyond anything I would have expected. TRUST those two guys.

That is ridiculous !!! Chalk it up to Bidenomics.

Well heck, if it's Buxton or Gallo/Luplow I don't know how it CAN'T be Buxton. But just to be even debating this as Twins fans is beyond depressing. Buxton...or Gallo/Luplow.

Trov, this was actually discussed to some degree in another thread speculating which pitchers would be chosen to comprise the Twins post-season bullpen. The general consensus was that of the 8 guys in the bullpen, Duran, Varland, Stewart, Pagan, Theilbar, Jax and Maeda would be 7 "locks" and that it would probably come down to Funderburk or Paddock for the final spot. In this scenario, Ober would be the #4 SP (Lopez, Gray & Ryan #1, #2 & #3) and that Keuchel wouldn't make it. It's encouraging to see Paddock throwing 96-97 but I think Funderburk is the final piece because they should have another lefty and I've been impressed with him this season. That's quite an impressive bullpen, and when you consider that last night, the BP struck out 11 of the final 13 outs of the game, you got a glimpse at how dominant the Twins BP could be. Granted, it was against Oakland, but it's still impressive. The MLB Trade Rumors article pointed out that by cutting some of the bottom end, poor performers out that pitched about 175 innings in relief the Twins pen has been downright nasty this season. Gone are the Moran's, Floro's, Lopez's etc... The Twins, with very good starting pitching backed up by that BP could be very scary for some teams to face. I think the Twins could be a sneaky team that other teams could take lightly at the own peril. I think the Brewers, with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta and a solid BP is very similar. The Brewers are going to knock somebody big out of the playoffs. Once the season ends and the work of constructing a roster for next season begins, it will be interesting to see how the Twins go about replacing Gray & Maeda in the rotation as well as how they construct their 2024 bullpen. When you see how a couple of guys at the bottom of the bullpen list negatively impacted the overall performance of our BP you can see they just need to shore up a couple of spots. Weak cogs in a BP tend to have a negative domino effect on the entire bullpen. It leads to over usage of the better pitchers. I believe adding one solid veteran arm and hopefully someone like Matt Canterino for next season could be tremendous. Injuries and ineffectiveness will happen and guys like Alcala if he (like Canterino) can ever get and STAY healthy, could also have a tremendous impact on what could and should be a very good bullpen.

As a youngster in the mid 60's I vividly remember running home from school for lunch (that my Mom had all laid out and ready for me) to see games in 1966, 1967 and 1968. We moved in 1969 and school was too far for me to run home at lunch time for any of those Mets v Orioles games. Games moved VERY quickly in those days, so while I didn't get to see the entire game I saw enough to see Baltimore's young pitching staff totally shut down the Dodgers in 1966 and Koufax actually LOSE a World series game. I saw Lou Brock get two of his 4 hits in a game in the 1967 Series and Bob Gibson strike out about 8 of his 17 Tigers in 1968. I'm retired now so I don't mind if the Twins play at noon or 3pm. But I can sympathize with everyone who still has to work and doesn't have any opportunity to WATCH the games. You can still sneak a look at your phone to update you on the score though.

Indeed, this is why we all love baseball! The chess game is always fascinating. Not only do the Twins get all 3 games at home, but the very real likelihood that the eventual opponent will need to burn through their #1 & #2 SP just to make the playoffs is a huge advantage. The Twins need Lewis and Correa to be healthy so resting them as much as possible while still getting them some AB's before the regular season ends is also a key. I believe the key to our post season is Royce Lewis. That kid just seems to have a positive vibe. He comes through in clutch situations. I don't mean to put this kind of pressure on him but I think he's our post season "X" factor. Could he be our "Puckett-esque" kind of catalyst? I think so.

I'm 100% with JD-Twins on the bullpen choices. We have 8 slots total. The Twins SHOULD carry 15 hitters/position players for better flexibility to pinch hit/pinch run/late game defense situations. Lopez, Gray and Ryan are your SP. Ober is your #4. There is no need for Keuchel anywhere on this post season roster. Duran-Closer They have to decide if he's capable of closing games in back to back nights and he's got to gain confidence in his "splinker" again. But he's the best arm we have, and there are times I say to myself "just throw it 100 mph down the middle and dare that guy to hit it Duran!!" Varland and Stewart 7th & 8th inning guys. Stewart has been awesome this year. His ERA is 0.38 !! He looked great last night. Varland is terrifying coming out of the pen. His future is as a SP and I hope Matt Canterino is destined to be that 8th inning guy next season, but Varland throwing 100 mph out of the pen in the 7th or 8th inning is something to behold. Jax needs a shorter leash but if they don't run him into the ground can still be highly effective. With all this added depth for the post season, Jax should not get over-worked and his breaking ball should have that late bite that makes him so tough. Theilbar and Funderburk. They need BOTH of these lefty's. Theilbar is reliable. I've liked what I've seen of Funderburk. Pagan has really turned things around. He belongs and I can't believe I'm saying this, but can actually be counted on in a high leverage situation if it's early in the game (5th or 6th inning). Maeda-He's got a good track record in the post-season. I'd actually like to see him piggy back Ryan in game #3. Ryan gets the first 4-5 innings. Maeda the next two. That leaves Paddock off the roster. As nice as it was to see him throw in the mid to upper 90's last night, If it comes down to him and Funderburk, I'll take the lefty and throws mid 90's. The BIG thing for me is that I want to see Stewart and Varland in those 7th and 8th inning high leverage situations instead of Pagan and Jax. Go with the young guys that throw GAS. The Twins are on the verge of becoming one of the youngest teams in MLB next season. This post season is where it's time to unleash the young guns.

Yet...Cody pointed out the Alex Kirilloff call up. It's not an outlandish scenario. I would say that in athletic endeavors, the cream always rises to the top. Brooks Lee, to me, is as creamy as Royce Lewis and Walker Jenkins. I think Lee has an excellent chance to break camp with the Twins next season. Getting a look at him NOW, once the division has been clinched (and also that St. Paul's season is done) would be a move I could get on board with. Look, Lewis and Correa aren't going to play for the rest of the regular season. Add him to the roster Monday in place of Stevenson or Luplow and see what he does.

Can't argue much about the hitters although I echo the feelings on Buxton. Julien needs to be in the lineup at the top of the order against RH pitching at a minimum. I'd also echo the opinions on Funderburk. I like what I've seen, and because he's LH on a staff bereft of LH SP's with just Theilbar in the pen, I just think Funderburk needs to be there. Probably in place of Paddock. And while I'm not sold on Ryan being the #3 (I'd like to see another good start or two) I'd prefer him to Maeda. I completely disagree that Maeda's post season success with the Dodgers out of the bullpen doesn't matter. It most certainly DOES! He's got experience in that role and he hasn't just been good, he's been GREAT! I lean toward starting Ryan or Ober as the #3 and having Maeda ready to come in and pitch innings 4, 5 & 6 if need be. Lewis and Correa are key. They really need to be ready to play, because if they aren't it's going to change our potential lineup in a big way. It was wonderful to see them clinch last night and all the happy faces. Thank You Twins for an interesting regular season! Let's make some magic in the post season!!

I agree, this is encouraging. The Twins will most likely carry 15 bats with a couple of SP's moving to the bullpen and the 2 least effective reliver's not making the roster. Competition for those final couple of bullpen spots will be intense now that Varland and Funderburk have grabbed spots and Brock Stewart and Paddock are ramping up. The Twins need to make sure they have plenty of speed on the bench for late game situations. If Buxton is healthy enough to DH, he would also be healthy enough to pinch run if need be. Having guys like Castro, Taylor and Stevenson won't hurt at all given the way post season games are managed differently than a typical regular season game. Plus, there's always the chance Buxton clobbers a 3-run homer.

Good points Trov. I think it will be Henderson, but there are 60-65 AB's out there for Lewis to continue to impress. It may end up being closer than we could imagine. I've been impressed with Diaz from Houston as well. In the National League, even though De La Cruz "burst" onto the scene, it's really been Corbin Carroll all year long. He's had an outstanding rookie season for the D-Backs and looks to be an All Star fixture for years to come.