Cory Engelhardt
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Everything posted by Cory Engelhardt
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Kikuchi to Houston
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Loud cheering dot gif :)
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https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/twins-to-promote-top-prospect-walker-jenkins-to-high-a-cedar-rapids-01j401t66d0h#:~:text=The %23MNTwins are promoting OF,in 31 of those games.
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I agree, and with how they have developed pitching, I'd say they are pretty good at getting to that point overall.
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Is it though? I mean, are we certain any of the prospects you listed can be a serviceable regular in a starting rotation? I certainly hope they can, and they have been good at getting guys ready to be mlb pitchers. But nothing is ever guaranteed.
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You can NEVER have enough pitching. AND There is no such thing as a pitching prospect :)
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Dear Pohlads: Don't Do This
Cory Engelhardt replied to Eric Blonigen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
All of that is true. I more mean, right now, Buxton is healthy and playing well. Correa should be back and was playing really well. Our pitchers are generally healthy, and the lineup has a lot of guys who are going pretty good at the moment. None of what I just listed is guaranteed to happen again specifically or individually. That's why I say it's important to add now because we can't guarantee the level of health for any given future year with what is our core in 2024. -
Dear Pohlads: Don't Do This
Cory Engelhardt replied to Eric Blonigen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If you aren’t going to push some chips once in a while, are you even playing the game? Better way to word it, if you aren’t going to go for it this year, when will you ever go for it?- 214 replies
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I’m fully on board with this. 100%
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Is Paxton still effective though? That’s a lot of walks this year with diminished velocity
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I’ll say it again like I did this past offseason; Blake Snell is already a twin. His brother lives near Seattle. Bring him in for the playoff push, show you are truly going forward, and that will help with the tv push and playoff seats more than just about anyone else no?
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- rocco baldelli
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This is how this front office has always worked. They never give off smoke signals for anything. It’s annoying for those of us who hit f5 often during the day, but it’s fine
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In this trade, for a Minnesota angle, one of the prospects is Mac Horvath. He was a 2nd round pick in 2023 out of the university of Carolina, but he grew up and played baseball through high school in Austin, MN. Hopefully he gets a shot at some point
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Not all top 10’s are created equal. That’s mostly what I meant. I don’t love Scott’s walk rate at all, but I get what you are saying. In that sense I would take Puk over Scott too. We will see
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Yeah, no. Payroll space is only so valuable. It’s not more valuable than Pablo. That line of thinking is just beyond ridiculous today
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Agree to disagree that he is similar to Keaschall. That strikeout rate of his can’t continue if he wants to have success in the majors
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Imagine thinking Pablo should ever be on the table. Yuck
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Keaschall is a top 100 prospect though. Still, it is a lot to give up, but Puk is a good reliever
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JUST putting this out into the ether. With how he's looked since coming off the injured list, he would be an AWESOME get. Am I being naive? Yes. Will it happen, no it (probably) won't. Just sharing because it would certainly be exciting. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/blake-snell-among-giants-drawing-trade-interest.html
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I mean, Chicago is probably at least 3 years away from being relevant again right? Especially if they do trade away their good tradeable players now too. What I'm saying is, I'm fine trading for players that will help us and giving up fair value regardless of the team.
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Certainly any pitcher could be an injury away or even have their production fall off the table. That said, here are some numbers to compare for his production at different points... 2023 with Saint Louis, prior to being traded to Baltimore... 20 games started, 7-6 record, 109 2/3 innings, 116 hits, 54 walks, 106 k's. That's 8.7 k's per 9, and at that point he had a 4.43 era, 4.20 fip and a 4.47 Xfip. Also, according to brooks baseball, his average fastball velocity from March through July 2023 was typically between 92.79 and 93.15 mph. So far in 2024... 17 games, 100 2/3 innings, 7-5 record with only 80 hits, 17 walks, 127 k's. That's 11.35 k's per 9, and he has a 3.13 era with a 3.15 fip and a 2.47 Xfip. And his fastball velocity has averaged between 93.92 and 94.09 for most of the year, which is about a mph faster than last year too. Basically, this year he is walking way less, giving up way less hits, and is throwing harder. I'd feel a lot more confident that he can start a playoff game this year compared to his pre-trade production in 2023. Now, he could get hurt and revert back. Just saying, his numbers so far this year are night and day compared to 2023.
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Paxton's drop in velocity this year and his pretty enormous walk rate are both reasons why I wouldn't prioritize him as being an addition here. I'd prefer to look elsewhere. I can see trading away a veteran or two as well though for salary purposes. I guess we'll see.
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Just for comparison's sake, I don't think we are giving enough credit to what stuff Kikuchi has. For example, Eno Sarris put out 2nd half pitcher ratings today in the Athletic. What he looked at were his ratings that include Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+ and k to bb percentage, along with just how healthy that person has been this year. I won't list every single name here, but here are some names that stick out to me... 1) Tarik Skubal 2) Zack Wheeler 5) Corbin Burnes 6) Paul Skenes 18) Garrett Crochet 19) Joe Ryan 20) Pablo Lopez 22) Sonny Gray 23) Yusei Kikuchi 26) Jack Flaherty 51) Bailey Ober 52) Nathan Eovaldi 56) Zach Eflin 57) Justin Verlander 62) Luis Severino 63) Max Scherzer 64) Jose Berrios 77) Erick Fedde 81) Sean Manaea 82) Zack Littell 109) Frankie Montas 111) JP Sears 112) Jake Irvin 114) Chris Paddack 120) Tyler Mahle 121) Lance Lynn 147) Simeon Woods Richardson 155) David Festa 175) Louie Varland Anyway, based on stuff and health, Kikuchi is throwing really well in 2024 compared to a lot of other names that are rumored to be available.
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Depending on how they believe Paddack will respond and be able to come back, as well as how they see the last few months going with Woods Richardson, I could see a scenario where bringing in more than 1 starter could make sense. Hard to trust Paddack for SURE coming back, and Woods Richardson will go over his career high in innings after about 20 more innings total, so I have to think more depth here is a good thing at minimum. We'll see.
