Cory Engelhardt

JUST putting this out into the ether. With how he's looked since coming off the injured list, he would be an AWESOME get. Am I being naive? Yes. Will it happen, no it (probably) won't. Just sharing because it would certainly be exciting. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/blake-snell-among-giants-drawing-trade-interest.html

I mean, Chicago is probably at least 3 years away from being relevant again right? Especially if they do trade away their good tradeable players now too. What I'm saying is, I'm fine trading for players that will help us and giving up fair value regardless of the team.

Certainly any pitcher could be an injury away or even have their production fall off the table. That said, here are some numbers to compare for his production at different points... 2023 with Saint Louis, prior to being traded to Baltimore... 20 games started, 7-6 record, 109 2/3 innings, 116 hits, 54 walks, 106 k's. That's 8.7 k's per 9, and at that point he had a 4.43 era, 4.20 fip and a 4.47 Xfip. Also, according to brooks baseball, his average fastball velocity from March through July 2023 was typically between 92.79 and 93.15 mph. So far in 2024... 17 games, 100 2/3 innings, 7-5 record with only 80 hits, 17 walks, 127 k's. That's 11.35 k's per 9, and he has a 3.13 era with a 3.15 fip and a 2.47 Xfip. And his fastball velocity has averaged between 93.92 and 94.09 for most of the year, which is about a mph faster than last year too. Basically, this year he is walking way less, giving up way less hits, and is throwing harder. I'd feel a lot more confident that he can start a playoff game this year compared to his pre-trade production in 2023. Now, he could get hurt and revert back. Just saying, his numbers so far this year are night and day compared to 2023.

Paxton's drop in velocity this year and his pretty enormous walk rate are both reasons why I wouldn't prioritize him as being an addition here. I'd prefer to look elsewhere. I can see trading away a veteran or two as well though for salary purposes. I guess we'll see.

Just for comparison's sake, I don't think we are giving enough credit to what stuff Kikuchi has. For example, Eno Sarris put out 2nd half pitcher ratings today in the Athletic. What he looked at were his ratings that include Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+ and k to bb percentage, along with just how healthy that person has been this year. I won't list every single name here, but here are some names that stick out to me... 1) Tarik Skubal 2) Zack Wheeler 5) Corbin Burnes 6) Paul Skenes 18) Garrett Crochet 19) Joe Ryan 20) Pablo Lopez 22) Sonny Gray 23) Yusei Kikuchi 26) Jack Flaherty 51) Bailey Ober 52) Nathan Eovaldi 56) Zach Eflin 57) Justin Verlander 62) Luis Severino 63) Max Scherzer 64) Jose Berrios 77) Erick Fedde 81) Sean Manaea 82) Zack Littell 109) Frankie Montas 111) JP Sears 112) Jake Irvin 114) Chris Paddack 120) Tyler Mahle 121) Lance Lynn 147) Simeon Woods Richardson 155) David Festa 175) Louie Varland Anyway, based on stuff and health, Kikuchi is throwing really well in 2024 compared to a lot of other names that are rumored to be available.

Depending on how they believe Paddack will respond and be able to come back, as well as how they see the last few months going with Woods Richardson, I could see a scenario where bringing in more than 1 starter could make sense. Hard to trust Paddack for SURE coming back, and Woods Richardson will go over his career high in innings after about 20 more innings total, so I have to think more depth here is a good thing at minimum. We'll see.

I worry about injuries. I don’t know at all that Paddack will be back, so I could see a depth move (like Paxton) just in case. I just don’t see him as someone who id feel comfortable starting a playoff game, so I’d still want to pursue someone along those lines.

I’d be ok with this if he isn’t the only starter they acquire between now and next tuesday

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5649385/2024/07/22/mlb-trade-deadline-player-position-ranking/ Tim Britton and our Aaron Gleeman made a top 50 list of players who could potentially be traded prior to next Tuesday (6/30/2024, 6pm central) trade deadline. It's coming up quick. How they laid it out was having a green (likely) yellow (possibly) or red (not as likely) color next to each of the 50 players, and they listed best fits for each of them. Typically each player had 3 teams listed next to each that were a fit, and the Twins were listed next to 5 of them. Here are the names associated with the Twins... 1) Vlad Guerrero Jr..I don't know that I see it with our our 1b/dh options are doing just fine right now. But really, if Miranda is going to be out a while, or Santana gets hurt, I could see being interested in a 1b type. Guerrero would be fun in this lineup, but like the next guy listed, I don't know that I see the Twins using prospects to bring in what isn't a problem with the current roster (outside of injuries, of course.) Vlad has probably 8 million left on his deal for this year and would be in arbitration for the last time in 2025, probably making north of 23 million or more next year. Salary wise I don't see it here. 2) Pete Alonso (see description next to Guerrero Jr.) Pete should have about 4 million (give or take) left on this season's contract before he becomes a free agent. 3) Nathan Eovaldi...This would be my number 1 target if Texas is open to trading him. He is a bulldog and has a lot of strong playoff success in his resume. He most likely is a rental (if he pitches 62 more innings this year he would have a vesting option for next season, but he most likely only picks that up if he gets hurt and won't pitch next year.) But man, he would be fun to have for a game 1 or game 2 starter. He most likely has about 7 left on his deal for this year, so the price isn't bad unless he gets hurt and opts in to next years contract. 4) Yusei Kikuchi...If Texas doesn't listen, I'd love to go after Kikuchi as a fallback to Eovaldi. His stuff is really good, he is left handed, and he is also a rental. Plus, he has good experience against the Yankees both this season and during his career, which wouldn't hurt in a potential playoff series. I think I read he has maybe 3-4 million left on his deal for this season, so he certainly would be the most affordable listed here. 5) Jordan Montgomery...I know he has playoff experience, but this season has been mostly pretty terrible for him. I don't know that I see it. He is making 25 million this year, and he has a conditional player option for next year that certainly the Twins wouldn't pick up, so probably a salary dump for Arizona. IF he comes back looking healthy over the next few weeks I wouldn't hate taking a flier, but I'd prefer Eovaldi. I'd imagine he has about 11 million left in salary for this year, so maybe the Diamondbacks would even cover some of the salary to get out of that deal? Who are you manifesting to be a Twin come next Tuesday evening? For me it's Eovaldi with a bullet, but we'll see what takes place.

Gotta say, his next few starts will be interesting to follow. If he gets his typical velocity back he will be a huge potential trade target for everyone

Just throwing it out, I would LOVE the idea of Kikuchi, but I think I'd love the idea of Eovaldi if Texas sells even more. It is exciting knowing they will add, or at least I believe they will.

Just curious if anyone knows when Zebby's first start will be in AAA? I don't see a listed starter for Sunday, so maybe it's that day. Anyone able to confirm?

I hope Festa can stick as a starter. I do have more confidence in Zebby being a starter. But reliever Festa has 2 elite pitches at minimum, and I do think as a 2 inning guy he could be lights out. But if he can stick as a starter, even better. He led AAA in strikeout percentage, so his stuff is not a fluke.

That'd be up to coaching staff to make sure whoever they get doesn't produce like he is a bum right?

I like the idea of him in some ways. I guess I'd prefer to add someone who can slot into the top 3 right now, more than someone who would slot in at 4. But I'd absolutely be intrigued with adding someone with this many years of control.

I'd be all aboard getting Kikuchi. Flaherty's price tag will be a LOT higher, and I'm not in love with Heaney. I'd also be open to some guys who could be controlled through 2025 as well. Erik Fedde would be awesome, as would Nathan Eovaldi if Texas sells. I do think they will add, I'm pretty certain of it.

Dan Hayes mentioned him by name today too. I have a feeling there is some smoke here regarding Kikuchi. Also curious what the ask would be. Playoff wise, he seems like a really good option for a starter or for a bulk innings option.

This is about where I'm at. I could also see Keaschall above Festa and Matthews at 4, and really I see Zebby as a better starting pitcher prospect than Festa, even if I also think Festa's stuff is legit. The top 7 in that order I agree with in some capacity.

Gotta say, I have a really hard time having Raya in the top 10 at all anymore. I'm also not super high on Gonzalez anymore either. Zebby and Keaschall, to me, are easily above either of those 2, and I'd almost make a case for both of them being ahead of Festa, or at least they are very close. Frankly, I may even put Culpepper (Kaelen) ahead of Raya too. Fun to read.

I am open to the idea of making trades. I don't see the Twins selling on someone that they deem to be at a low point. I don't know that I see a fit like this happening.

Yup, but he'll have to earn it right? Injuries are always a thing. I could also see Keaschall not being far away from getting to AAA too if that time comes. But maybe that's more an August thing.

Thielbar has to be up there for me. And no mention of Topa and Stewart with injuries being out completely, as well as not having Descalfani for depth. I do see turnaround happening for Lopez. His secondary numbers are too solid to have an ERA that high all year. Julien and Kirilloff have to show they can do it at AAA to be considered again.

My guess is infield depth at Saint Paul more than for the major league club.

He has certainly earned it. One step away… strib_bobby 4m Twins pitching prospect Zebby Matthews was promoted to AAA. He started in High-A this year, and he posted a 1.95 ERA in 55 innings at AA with 63 strikeouts and six walks.

I too am pretty interested as to who will be their 11th round pick.