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Everything posted by ashbury
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Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem
ashbury replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Varland is a case in point for my view that there's really no such role as "#5 starter", not as anything permanent for a season anyway. That slot is for pitchers trying to establish a role - either a veteran trying to show he can still be a contributor in a rotation, or a young guy trying to establish himself. The difference is what to do with the guy if he's not making the grade: you DFA the veteran or maybe put him in the bullpen, you probably just option the youngster. Varland is our #5 guy, and right now it's time to send him to St Paul. The uptick in home runs might be just a SSS phenomenon, but it seems clear that whatever deception he brought in the early going has been scouted and adjusted for. So now it's his turn to adjust, and AAA is the place for experimentation and learning. -
Week in Review: Momentum Killers
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This year Carlos Correa leads the Twins in total bases, with 97. Meanwhile Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 175; Carlos ties for 103rd most. We don't meaningfully have a "best hitter" on the team. It's like declearing which of Snow White's little friends was the tallest.- 54 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Twintown nine that day ... (yadda yadda - eighth inning instead of ninth, two other guys made outs after the bases were loaded) ... But there is no joy in Twintown —mighty Buxton has struck out. / edit - not to pick on Buxton, the whole offense was feeble yet again.
- 67 replies
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- jordan balazovic
- louis varland
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Sounds about right for Max and Byron. I might have had higher expectations for Jorge than others did, and hoped he would establish himself as a shortstop, but his right arm just never would support him grabbing that role and keeping it. Jorge also has been beset by injuries, less than Byron but more than Max. I think I imagined more from him also.
- 27 replies
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- byron buxton
- max kepler
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The Twins Found Their Next Draft Gem
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I always want to see a second season before pronouncing anyone (aside from a few top draftees) a top prospect, but this is the kind of progression you like to see from a college player right out of the gate.- 13 replies
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- cory lewis
- bailey ober
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I'll ask my SABR researcher friends to try and name names as to why this particular rule was instituted.
- 18 replies
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- dameury pena
- hunter mcmahon
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I see on Ronald Acuña Jr.'s Wikipedia page that his son was born in 2020. Are there any early scouting reports on this prospect?
- 18 replies
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- dameury pena
- hunter mcmahon
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Both I suppose, but I'd probably explain it with percentages. In the seasons they were winning they'd win more when he was a starter. In their losing seasons, they lost less frequently. It's a bit laborious to dig up the numbers in his b-r.com game logs, because partial games carry a bias. And the last I looked might have been a couple years ago so I won't vouch for 2022. Right now 2023 is only closely in his favor, I think.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- brent headrick
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This year? Now 28-24 in games he started. (Among those are 4 he didn't finish the game but the Twins won all 4.) In years past when he was in CF the W-L record was almost invariably better.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- brent headrick
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"This guy's just a little bit better than you are used to, sir."
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- brent headrick
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I really hope there is more nuance to the plan than just that. Simple math: in an era of 13-man pitching staffs, a 6-man rotation leaves 7 relievers instead of the current 8. That makes it more important, not less, for most of the starts to be of the longer variety. A sequence of four-inning starts such as Sonny Gray gave us the other day will wear down a 7-man bullpen fast. And the guys who we think of as mop-up pitchers will be thrust into even more frequent high-leverage duty. And who is the one being added to such a rotation? A guy coming off the injured list, likely to be on a pitch limit, with a ceiling of 5 innings or so, at least for a while? Shuttling arms up and down from AAA is not a sustainable solution, due to roster rules that require minimum stays in AAA. Very little margin for error, with such a plan. So I hope there is another rabbit they can pull out of the hat. Or else that the plan is only a couple of times through the rotation in the expectation that something will sort itself out.
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In Appreciation of Donovan Solano
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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You can be President of the Ryan Jeffers fan club and I'll be Secretary-Treasurer. Everybody hop on the bandwagon, send your Venmo payment in care of ashbury.definitely.not.a.scam@gmail.scam and we'll mail your secret decoder ring right away.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- brent headrick
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Don't know whether you already looked it up, but if I added correctly the Twins are 19-24 when Vazquez starts behind the plate, and now 17-11 when Jeffers is the starting catcher (1-1 when Jeffers DHs). Small Sample Size territory still, but perhaps an unexpected trend at season's start.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- brent headrick
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Didn't watch the game live and am only seeing the play on the video clip, but that is one fine catch and tag by Jeffers. He had to keep his eye on a one-hop throw and immediately apply the tag. He did it all in one motion that had multiple ways for it to go wrong. Probably really good technique (what do I know), definitely excellent execution IMO.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- brent headrick
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Hadn't paid much attention yet to the Dominican Summer League this season, since it's just underway, but in the early going, the batters throughout the league are way ahead of the pitchers. Average run scoring is 6.19 right now. So while the Twins ERA in the 8s is pretty bad, there are 4 other teams doing even worse! Anyone like me who likes to play around with scouting players from their stats had better be aware of just how much of a hitter's league this is. (I also read almost nothing into a player's stats until he's age 20 or so, and a 20-year old in DSL is automatically a bit suspect, thus the DSL is more or less "oh, look at the ugly/pretty numbers.") Hope a few gems emerge from this mass of young talent.
- 18 replies
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- dameury pena
- hunter mcmahon
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Great. Now what's a Domestic Reserve List? / never mind - looked it up, 180 players per franchise to cover their entire minor league system. There's also a 70-player International Reserve List. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33291388/mlb-seeks-ability-reduce-size-domestic-reserve-list-latest-labor-offer-players-union-sources-say
- 27 replies
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- yasser mercedes
- christian macleod
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Slumping Tigers? They've won 2 games in a row. One more and it's a winning streak. It has happened before. You're welcome, Detroit.
- 2 replies
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- matt wallner
- marco raya
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Runners? After the second inning, they got 4 more hits and one walk, in 26 PA, give or take (just doing simple math from the box score). That's a .160 batting average. Yes, they didn't literally get no-hit the rest of the way, runners were produced, plural. But the bats went to sleep, just as they so often do. Putrid game. Glad I missed it. I was at a memorial service for an acquaintance, and had arguably a better time. / edit - oops, didn't take into account double plays. 4-for-24, .167 BA. Much better.
- 32 replies
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- joe ryan
- alex kirilloff
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