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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Topic: Bullpen trade possibilities Discussion: Fix the offense but first fire everybody in charge.
  2. ashbury
    The scouts/evaluators' jobs are finished now. It's up to development to make a few tweaks like that. I only know how to do Lollygaggers from Bull Durham.
  3. ashbury
    That scenario probably won't play out. If at least two "somebodies" are likely to sign him, then before the Twins cut him they'd work out a trade, eating the remaining salary and receiving a prospect of some value in return, from whichever team valued him a little more. Sunk cost, as you said, works in both directions. That remaining salary is still in their budget and they will use it to best effect.
  4. ashbury
    Twins franchise record, possibly. But then there's the Angels' legendary 2021 draft: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=ANA&year_ID=2021&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0 20 picks. 20 arms.
  5. ashbury
    Let me be the first to suggest that new pitching prospect Xander Hamilton is not throwing away his shot!
  6. ashbury
    6-man rotations are a bad idea for multiple reasons. If Keuchel isn't at least the 5th best starting option, don't start him. And I don't think he is.
  7. ashbury
    Okay, so your answer to my first question is Yes. I would agree. How do you answer the second question?
  8. ashbury
    Does anybody actually go to the plate trying to put the ball in play? Does anybody actually go to the plate trying to strike out? If your answer to these two questions is not the same, then please stop trying to equate the two. It is the source of the disconnect between people's respective positions on the subject.
  9. ashbury
    "Then watch what I do and do the opposite. Same as with our front office basically. You're welcome."
  10. ashbury
    FalVine might want to brush up on their Seinfeld lore, and maybe take it to heart. George : Yeah, I should do the opposite, I should. Jerry : If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.
  11. ashbury
    I'm still upset about losing Nelson Cruz over some untested rookie pitcher. We all have that one hill we need to die on and that shall be mine.
  12. ashbury
    I'll stick my neck out and guess that the young man never gets tired of the riffs on his name. 🙂
  13. ashbury
    I don't question his effort nor his clutchiness nor anything about his approach. But the results this year are illusory. Maybe it's just small samples cut up into too many pieces. But among his 221 plate appearances for the Twins: Team ahead: 85 PA, 1.143 OPS Tie game: 55 PA, .642 OPS Team behind: 81 PA, .549 OPS* Gallo had a crucial homer the other day. But in the long view, his contributions when the team most needs him have been less than his overall OPS suggests. I'm not sure I've ever watched an "empty" .800 OPS but this might be one. *(MLB wide the disparity is not nearly so severe: OPS of .743, .728, .719. The Twins as a team show a worse than average disparity this year, .752, .713, .667, but nothing like Gallo.)
  14. ashbury
    I know there are arguments for wRC but I can't remember a time when I found that it and OPS were at odds on a player I was looking at. Right now b-r.com has OPS+ of 117 for Gallo, and these numbers are barely worth one significant digit (not counting the leading 1 or 0), so this and 121 are basically congruent. wRC+ doesn't give me insight that OPS+ doesn't already, so I rarely resort to it. WPA has real problems, especially if used as "is this guy good?" versus "what kind of year has he had?" Still, as I said, I find that ordinarily WPA pairs up with WAA (which for a full season is roughly like WAR-2.0), to suggest how well the player contributes to being over .500. Gallo is an outlier, for whatever reason. Between WPA or WAA (or wRC+), which one gives the fairest picture, I don't know if there is an absolute answer out there. I do think Gallo's negative WPA is more congruent with what fans who post at TD have said his season feels like to them.
  15. ashbury
    Good. There was a year that Nolan Ryan led his league in ERA with plenty of games started and innings pitched. His WAR and WAA and WPA and any other alphabet soup you happen to look at confirms his good season. And yet he went 8-16. It can happen. I won't go so far as to say ignore W-L record for a starter in the modern game, but it should be looked at in context. If all else looks solid, and the W-L isn't there, maybe the rest of the roster let him down. By various measures, Sonny Gray is one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the league this year. The only knock is he doesn't go as deep into games as some, and that's as much the on-field staff's decision as his own performance. The innings he has pitched, he has delivered.
  16. ashbury
    What tipped you off? The little smiley face?
  17. ashbury
    If Gray alone is going, then Rocco needs to be in the discussion for Manager of the Year for leading this ragtag pitching staff to essentially a tie in the majors for ERA. And they need to institute a similar award for pitching coaches so that Pete Maki can bask in the limelight of making a silk purse from his collection of 23 (and counting) sows ears.
  18. ashbury
    Normally I like OPS as overall offensive stat as well as any other. But recently I was looking around and comparing Wins Above Average, which to my eye correlates well with OPS (except when defense is either end of the spectrum), to Win Probability Added, and Gallo is a huge outlier. WAA about zero (average player), negative WPA. (Both stats take .500 performance as a baseline, unlike WAR and OPS, and think in terms of where wins come from.) Career wise his WAA is positive, his WPA negative. His contributions don't come often enough when the team needs him, if you buy WPA's logic. He had a couple big homers this week. But his negative performances are death by a thousand cuts. His OPS is kind of suspect IMO.
  19. ashbury
    Who are the other ninth round pitching draft picks from 2022 who are at AA? I haven't taken the time to look - maybe there's a bunch and the other franchises are running rings around us.
  20. ashbury
    Several times today I have encountered a failure message. At the moment when I click on... https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/62951-buxton/ ... I get a screen that says "Sorry, there is a problem. Something went wrong. Please try again." Before I go digging into what could possibly be different about my browser (both Firefox and Chrome) or internet connection today I thought I should ask if anyone else if having ths type of problem on TD? / edit - this page, for whatever reason, loads just fine for me
  21. ashbury
    I totally missed the link and reference in the article. Learn To Read, they tell me. Live And Don't Learn, is my standard response. Colt Emerson it is. Book it. 🙂
  22. ashbury
    Yes. I didn't want to be Captain Wetblanket after that first game, but the breakdown of run scoring jumped out at me right away. It seems like the same old pattern, which of course applies to any team but somehow seems more extreme with the 2023 Twins than I ever remember: fatten up on a pitcher who is clearly not having a good day, get shut down by any competent major leaguer who has a good plan and the command to carry it out.
  23. ashbury
    I wonder if any of the lower ranked players on this list will fall and be available at #34? Or, if one does fall, will the Twins have someone else they like better? I wanted this list to be a top 34 not top 25.
  24. ashbury
    Can you please stop putting jinxes on our good hitters? Thanks in advance.
  25. ashbury
    So have I. It affected my mountain hiking. It did not affect my slow-pitch beer-league career.
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