tony&rodney

I like the optimism. I'm too boring because I took what Falvey said as what it is. You are probably correct. Either way, I never stress even a little bit over these things. I'm just a fan.

These are interesting ideas. Matt Moore and Harrison Bader could be good additions. A trade of Kyle Farmer for Dylan Carlson makes some sense for both teams. I don't believe both Carlson and Bader fit on the same team, so i would favor the trade. Why would Pittsburgh trade any pitching? This is similar to if the Twins decided to trade Joe Ryan for a position player. Of course, anything can happen but any team trading pitching that is really desperate for arms, like Pittsburgh, would be strange. Ideas for trading for pitchers from teams that are totally deficient in pitching has been quite common though so who knows. Hoskins can hit, that is a given. He burned his glove though. There are a couple of problems bringing him aboard. First, I think Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda can hold this spot in a productive manner. More importantly, I'm taking the Twins at their word that the budget will shrink, which means Hoskins is too rich for their accountants. He would be a sound choice if the budget was closer to the 2023 numbers.

Paddack will be watched closely. The Twins will be delighted to get 90-120 innings from him. Varland has pitched 150 innings each of the last two years and will only be restricted by how well he pitches.

This is a really optimistic number ($140M). If this is a reality, perhaps the Twins do push Varland off of the rotation. Or maybe the Twns add a good bat. I'm more cautiously thinking $125M. A reason that Seattle had two good rookie pitchers is because they each of Miller and Woo were given a sustained chance to pitch. I know you disagree, but I'm picking Varland for a starting spot. We shall see.

Why does that remind of when the Twins were in on Wheeler?

Austin Hedges is also available. He doesn't hit a lick, except the very occasional home run. The Twins will almost certainly keep Vazquez and play him in 80 games for about 250 at bats. The Twins are sitting around $120 million for payroll. They do not need to reduce that number. Thet probably have about $10 million to play with to add players. If a trade of Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, or Vazquez occurs that number available goes up. The Twins are not adding a top starting free agent pitcher even if they free up $35 million.

The Twins do not chase after high priced free agent pitchers. It is both the money and years required. Atlanta also follows this path. It is what it is.

Varland has thrown 150 innings each of the last two years. He has good stuff and throws strikes. Does Louie need to refine his command and sequencing? Of course he needs to improve, as do both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Varland is less established than Ryan and Ober but his ability to keep the Twins in games should put him as a starter even if the Twins add someone else. We all hope that Chris Paddack is an effective pitcher in 2024. He pitched 140+ innings in 2019. His next best innings total is 108+ in 2021. Coming off of his second TJ surgery, Paddack has zero chance to pitch 150 innings. The goal is around 100 innings for the sheriff. The Twins would push Paddack to 120 innings if everything went perfectly. This leaves innings left to cover. Paddack will be the #5 guy and get his turn skipped on a number of occasions out of caution and concern for the elbow.

I have not seen him play in person. Have you? If you have, I'm just curious what you think. As I stated above Longenhagen does go out and see guys and he is pretty well respected in the industry. I too find it very hard to believe and I have watched him play many dozens of times via milb.com.

The loss of media money may have played a small role in deciding not to pursue Maeda aggressively. If the roster budget was going to be around $160 million as many people thought it would be in September/October, then things change. Maeda did a fine job for the Twins. He won't be so easily replaced. Paddack will not go much beyond 100 innings if that. Varland is an unknown, but I'm high on his ability to pitch more than 160 innings if he can be effective. Sonny Gray was always going to be a free agent and would sign with a team of his choosing, all things being equal. Neither Atlanta not Minnesota plays in the deep end for pitching, so it came down to CIN or STL. He made the easy decision. Gray would have resigned with the Twins in a heartbeat for 3/$75 million. We wish him well and now the Twins will need to cover his innings.

This is a good reason to pass on Anderson. I'm not trusting of the "bad guy" talk about Anderson. He was picked for the World Baseball Classic team and asked if he could play second base. Why would he be asked to join a volunteer team if he was a malignant cancer to clubhouses. I prefer to not judge people i don't know. He plays hard from my vantage point. The little dust-up with Ramirez was explained nicely by Hans. Doctor Gast set forth a reason why Tim Anderson may not be fully ready to play right away in 2024. Otherwise, unless their is definitive proof to be wary of Anderson, I wish him well. Baseball is a tough game to play - so much failure to accept.

I like your thoughts and responses on Twins Daily. You also propose a number of options when it comes to trades. What I cannot understand is your insistence on using BTV so closely. Why? I get that it works as a baseline guide of sorts. However, it goes all over the place and changes rapidly. Last offseason Miranda and Arraez were valued the same and both were at least 10 points less than Pablo Lopez. Wander Javier was near 15 at one point if my memory is close and just last week Jovani Moran was worth 10 points. In November Polanco went from 4 to 8 without playing. I get that this tool uses a ton of data and replicates a view of player worth. I actually think it is worth a glance, but close adherence to it doesn't make sense. Shuffling numbers does not take into consideration the needs of a team. Keller (PIT) is the only pitcher worth noting to start next season. Pittsburgh has specifically stated that they are not rebuilding and hope to field a competitive team. Trading Keller is akin to the Twins trading Lopez and Ryan for position players. All teams will trade any player if it clearly makes their team better and trades of MVPs happen, but the roster balance, salaries, and fit are all key to trades. The Miami-Minnesota transaction last offseason would not have passed BTV, but was a good example of teams filling holes. Both teams made the playoffs due in part to the contributions from their acquired player. I find it hard to understand the rapid shift to using BTV by so many folks and am not understanding why people have become so enthralled with their numbers. I think I have followed BTV for only three or four years and am not opposed to looking it over.

Tim Anderson totally fell apart last season and that is curious. He was always a guy who hustled and played hard. Hans, you do a good job of explaining his nightmare of a season. Our guy, Jose Miranda, hurt his shoulder and never could manage a decent swing the entire year and Miranda is relatively inexperienced. Anderson doesn't seem past his physical prime. He should be an interesting guy to watch this season. Seattle should sign him for second base. Unless the Twins unload a couple of second basemen, there really isn't any room on the team.

Well, actually I was only writing that in the sense of no budget limits whatsoever. Not all are past their primes, some are in their prime. But I get that it doesn't make sense to spend your budget on a guy who can get injured or flop. Will Verlander ever fall apart? JK.

I mean we all like the potential of Brooks Lee and he is a switch hitter too. Still, you are almost certainly the first person to suggest that Brooks Lee projects to be better in the field and at the plate than Carlos Correa. I sure would like that though and one never knows what will occur with prospects, just like a box of chocolates.

Sorry, it is the Competitive Balance Picks that can be traded, not the Comp Pick for Sonny Gray.

We all would like to see the Twins sign a top free agent starting pitcher. I would bet the chances of acquiring Juan Soto are greater than the Twins signing a pitcher like Snell or Montgomery.

Would Seattle be interested in a young third baseman? I agree that Seattle holds the cards. We read other posters and prefer ourselves to hold the best young players and prospects, but any significant trade would need to include one of the Twins "untouchables". If not, then no trade. The Twins, with a reduced payroll, have backed themselves into a corner to some extent. The larger contracts are out of reach and there is not a precedent for signing top starting pitchers. Guys like Hoskins, Gurriel Jr. and Bellinger are pretty much out of reach too. Trading Kepler or Polanco for little return is pointless and by themselves they won't return a top pitcher. While it seemed like a good time to add a Nola, Montgomery, or Snell, that ship has sailed. Perhaps Wacha or Giolito is still possible. Maybe a guy like Bader or Kiermaier is still doable as well. Something will happen, but the current roster will need to carry the load in 2024. Does anyone see a major trade this offseason by the Twins?

Why would Pittsburgh, a team desperate for starting pitching, trade Keller? Also, the Twins need to hold on to their best starting pitching prospects unless the return is a pitcher like George Kirby who still has five years of control. Festa is the Twins best starting pitcher in the Twins system along with Marco Raya.

It is useful to remember that Correa has a no trade contract for big dollars and accept that this is not going to change. We all hope he can meet his best years on a consistent basis in the batter's box. Where Correa stands out is with his regularly strong defense at shortstop. Royce Lewis was never projected as a shortstop and wasn't too hot there coming up. He was even moved to third base in high school. Brooks Lee does everything well but his defense is far from the regular play of Correa. Lee is projected as a third baseman. If you watched Noah Miller and Brooks Lee play, it is no contest as far as defense. Suffice to say that Correa is a Twin for the foreseeable future and a really good shortstop. It is best to forget his contract and just enjoy his glove while hoping for the best from his bat.

Kepler plays good defense and has been pretty much average throughout his career with some peaks and valleys. If Max is a part of a package of players sent out to return a guy who makes the team better, the Twins will trade Kepler. Much like last year, the Twins are not going to give him away. He would be among the top outfielders if he were a free agent this year. There are three factors that will determine whether the Twins offer Kepler a qualifying offer after 2024. First, the state of the media money influences the limits of any budget. Second, the emergence of young players and prospects as solid contributing players (Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Martin, Rodriguez). Third, how does Kepler himself look during the entirety of the 2024 season. I would not be surprised by any of the possible outcomes for Kepler. I don't believe the Twins will be tearing down the roster due to financial concerns. I do think they will be careful about who is added and how much salary is added to the current number.

Likely the best choice of free agent outfielders is left-handed Cody Bellinger. RH power hitting outfielder? The best right-handed outfield bat on the market is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He would be a slight upgrade offensively from Kepler, perhaps. He is available for about 3/$50 million. I would be ok with that. The Twins wouldn't be so enamored. Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Pham are also free agents. Neither is as good as Max Kepler and cost more to sign. So, wrong year for free agent power hitting outfielders. If Kepler were a free agent he would be the second or third most in demand. The options aren't so great. Perhaps people would like to sign Celestino to replace Kepler. Is that where some folks are with Max?

They get a pick after the first round is complete, but before the second round begins. The order of comp picks will be determined after all signings are done. This could be pick #31 and the pick can be traded as well.

Festa and Raya are a year or two behind what Seattle got from Bryce Miller and Woo this past year. With starting pitching so costly, trading Festa or/and Raya would be crazy unless it was part of a deal that returned George Kirby. I guess we keep our eyes open but don't look at BTV for what the Twins need in return for Festa and Raya. I'm agreeing with you not to trade these guys, especially for Matz. There is no Matz. It's just a glance to see what is out there.

Sanchez was a pitcher that intrigued me. Sadly, when he returned fully healthy last summer the former stuff did not. Sixto topped out at 85 mph with his fastball in 2023. This was the last report I read several weeks ago. Hopefully he can return to full force in the future for his sake. Unfortunately, Sanchez is out of options. He will most likely be released in February or earlier if Miami needs a spot on the 40 person roster. Miami hopes that Cabrera can harness his pitches. Last year did not go well for him. The Marlins will want to see him in Spring Training. He is also out of options and i had hoped the Twins might get him for Larnach and Winder. I would think that Polanco is worth more to the Twins and many other teams than Cabrera.