tony&rodney

Fangraphs sets Burnes at $15.1 M and BaseballProspectus predicts him for $16 M. I don't know if that makes a difference for you. My belief is that the salary fits into the budget, especially if the Twins reduce through trade. The Brewers will want a strong package that starts with an equivalent to a first round draft pick to offset the return for a qualified offer. I have been interested in thinking of how to obtain Burnes from the beginning. I just don't know what the Brewers will see as a minimum return. My view of prospects differs somewhat from others. My focus is on guys with a huge upside and clear superior athleticism. Thus, I'm not very open to trading David Festa. I'm also not too open on Emmanuel Rodriguez. Perhaps either tips the balance for George Kirby but Seattle is not looking for prospects for next year or thereafter as main pieces in a trade. Despite not having seen Walker Jenkins play, I cannot see any way the Twins would even trade him straight up for anyone. The Twins should make efforts to see if they can get together with the Marlins for a mutually beneficial trade. This seems very possible.

Solid #5/6 starting pitchers are in demand. What does this do for Giolito?

I think you meant to reverse this. Mahle will be ready in mid 2025. Maeda is good right now. Mahle would need to sign a 3 year deal, similar to what Chris Paddack has: $Y1=1M, Y2=$3M, and $Y3 = $8M. Caveat - remember that Mahle went down with a bum shoulder before he tore his elbow last spring.

Nick, excellent write-up as usual. My reactions: 1. Burnes is a decent target but i fear the cost. The package of Polanco plus Festa might not be enough for Milwaukee but I'm not trading Festa either. If i had to pick one position player and one pitcher to protect among prospects, it is Jenkins and Festa. 2. The information came out on both budget and Moran after this exercise. Soto makes no sense unless the budget reaches $160 million, and even then it is a stretch. Same with Glasnow. Losing Moran was a blow as he has promise and held value before the news of his elbow tear. 3. Keller is who the Pirates need right now, especially after news of Oviedo going down. Pittsburgh is unlikely to listen on pitchers. This is true for Cincinnati as well. 4. Seattle is a darling object for teams looking to add pitching. The cost could be high. Polanco and Kepler have relatively inexpensive contracts. They would be the top choice (Polanco) or one of the top (Kepler) players in their positions. Adding a couple of guys like Tanner Schobel to them might bring back Bryce Miller. Hancock has been lauded but has had some trouble getting his career moving. Is Hancock an improvement over Festa? I wonder what any of Julien, Lee or Lewis returns? 5. We don't know how either the Twins or other teams value players. Trading Polanco and Kepler may severely weaken the Twins making our speculations moot. The board clearly believes that a trade is the expected path to acquire a strong pitcher. Guys like Giolito and Severino would be possible additions later in the offseason perhaps. Can the Twins just stand pat and play the hand they have right now? I guess that is another article.

Mauer should be elected on the first ballot. I'm not sure that the writers understand how difficult being a catcher is and it is has only become more challenging in the 21st century due to the reams of information.

We actually don't know if the Twins are even open to trading any of their top prospects, or any of Polanco, Kepler, Julien, Lewis, or Wallner. Seattle has the arms that interest many teams and it looks like they will dictate the terms if they are willing to make a trade of any of Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. There are a couple of guys to sign .... Giolito, Severino .... but with demand so high these guys can/might push for 2-4 years at $10-18 M per year. So while Giolito would be an arm worth bringing in on a prove it one year deal at around $15M, Giolito may be a little shook by how his year ended and be seeking a longer term deal with guaranteed money. If he would take a one year deal, that could work out for the Twins.

Well, I hope you gathered that I find both Keller and Gilbert as good options. The budget and ask would likely sink a trade for Burnes. Pittsburgh management stated that they will be adding pitching. Since then the news has come out that Johan Oviedo needs TJ. I don't think they trade Keller. Seattle is the team to talk with first. The price for one of their pitchers will be high, very high and I'm all in on a trade for any one of Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. Miami is a possibility too. Edward Cabrera is out of options and has struggled some with his control. Maybe he is not available and maybe the Twins don't want him either. Cabrera is a guy I would gamble on. I'm not keen on either Manoah or Blackburn.

Relatively fair comparison. Jazz is still developing as a player and Zac Gallen is a fine pitcher. Due to SP demand right now, the Twins might need to add a player like Kepler.

Yah, I found that interesting. Still, no reason to sign a reliever just to spend. Either the Twins use what is available now or find a guy or two to add. I don't know who to target for the bullpen though.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/pirates-rumors-johan-oviedo-tommy-john-surgery-elbow-injury.html Oviedo may be getting Tommy John soon. All of LAA, PIT, and CIN have stated a desire to add pitching. Each club has specifically said they are not dealing their arms but looking to add. There are tough roads to traverse towards finding pitching. Seattle is about the only team right now and the price will be high. The payment will hurt to any team wanting to acquire pitching. Louie Varland is definitely a work in progress. There is nothing finished about his game but he is still better than most any of the other #5 starting pitchers out there in MLB. Consider that Lance Lynn received more than $10 million and one can see it will be difficult to acquire an arm worth talking about.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/braves-sign-reynaldo-lopez.html The cost of a relief pitcher is dear.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cardinals-sign-lance-lynn.html View full rumor

Only time will settle any debates about whether Lee or Julien are more suitable for future Twins teams. I would expect that this conversation is going on within the Twins front office. There are good arguments to be made in favor of both players. Who knows maybe the Twins keep both ... and trade Lewis (gulp).

I'm not trading Festa or Kepler for Manoah. Perhaps the price is high but I just say no for either much less both. Let some other team benefit from a rebound from Manoah. I believe Milwaukee might ask for more and I'm not sure the Twins budget works for Burnes. Keller is a good pitcher and that trade seems fair, although I am reticent to trade Wallner. Blackburn? The Twins should shoot higher. You are correct that he could fit in the back of the rotation. The trade favors the Twins seemingly. The trade for Gilbert is interesting. Seattle might be thinking of a different combination of players.

The key is an unknown. Who or what does Seattle want? St. Louis wants a Seattle pitcher but the only guy that interests the Mariners is Jordan Walker. Tough deal. The Twins are in a place where they can play it safe or take a shot. Like last offseason, any high stakes deal will raise eyebrows. I do believe that the price will remain high and possibly even go higher as free agents sign. If a trade is going to happen, earlier is better.

This is the standard comment for most minor league centerfielders who have body types that trend towards bigger. The same comment was made years ago about Mike Trout. Corbin Carroll was raved about but gets moved to a corner for Alek Thomas. All teams use their best guy in center, but not all are equal gloves. Buxton/Kiermaier/Taylor and a few others are exceptional centerfielders. I would guess that Emmanuel can play the position as well as any or all of Gallo, Kepler, Castro, Gordon, and Martin. One thing to keep in mind is that there is a real learning curve for outfielders when they arrive to The Show. The stadiums are bigger and the wind flows along with the lights and crowds take a little time to learn. Once a player gets comfortable the superior lighting and fields actually help them as opposed to some of the conditions faced in the minor leagues. Either way, E-Rod has some learning to experience and the maturation process is important. 2024 is a big year for him because the competition and expertise at both AA and AAA will challenge his physical and mental progression.

No to an addition of Alonso. I'm thinking that the Twins get some good years at a nice price from Alex Kirilloff. One year of a three true outcomes player, no thanks.

Agree with others that the idea seems like an extreme long shot if not preposterous. However, having watched Emmanuel several dozen times last summer (via milb.com) he does have an extremely quick bat. The knock on him is largely his wandering focus, where he is prone to both swinging wildly at times and just watching pitches right down the middle at other times. The strike zone awareness is excellent. Defense is almost impossible to judge from video but he sure made some nice catches and has a big accurate arm too. Em-Rod needs experience. All that said, Longenhagen is well respected as an evaluator of minor league talent. I wouldn't object at all if Emmanuel Rodriguez made a Michael Harris II or Kirby Puckett jump to MLB.

These were fun to read. The notice of a reduced 2024 payroll was released after the trade suggestions, which most likely makes slim shots at Glasgow, Soto, or Burnes moot. Another note is the news that Jovani Moran needs Tommy John, which meant he was released by the Twins. Moran had decent value before the DFA. Generally, the ideas were fair. Each reader will have their own reactions, some of which will strongly disagree with using certain players. For example, I might not want to give up David Festa in any trades, others may be opposed to including Emmanuel Rodriguez, and still others may become apoplectic if they see Brooks Lee going away in a transaction. It was at least interesting that (I did not see) Royce Lewis was not suggested as a piece to use to acquire a starting pitcher. Thank you for putting this together. It will be interesting to see what transpires this offseason. The Twins could be good even if they just run back the guys they currently roster with just one or two simple additions for less than $10 million, which keeps the roster beneath $130 million.

Good call on the hamstring (Mahle). I was incorrectly remembering a shoulder. FWIW, I didn't think you had mentioned the supposed rift between Rocco and Sonny. I was only referencing that this has been often discussed. My own take is that they got along fine. Yes, i do think Sonny is grateful. Unfortunately, the big contracts talk if the team fits. I loved watching Gray pitch but he will pick a team that works. The Twins just don't go large on pitching contracts.

Well, Solano is 5'-8" and both Buxton and Kirilloff are 6'-2". Polanco is a tad over 5'-11". So it is all whether the Twins want to use Polanco there. Buxton pitched in high school sometimes but has otherwise always played in the outfield. Jorge knows the infield as well as anyone, so if this is a consideration I'm sure he Polanco will be decent there. Personally, I'm hoping Alex Kirilloff hits all year for the Twins as he did for the Saints. The procedure he had should be fully healed with all rehab and strengthening finished before Spring Training. This could be the first time AK begins the year in full health since 2018 when he was returning from Tommy John surgery.

Good post. A couple of things to point out as additions, not arguments. Mahle kept having shoulder issues in the past few years. Then this past Spring, Mahle ripped his elbow up .... TJ surgery. Gray has had some ups and downs and was able to fully focus last offseason on baseball after being heavily involved with labor negotiations the previous offseason. Additionally, Gray added a pitch. I believe you are correct that Sonny Gray was treated well by the Twins and Baldelli. Gray is likely very aware of this and those comments that suggested a rift between pitcher and manager were almost surely way off base. Gray is competitive and merely stated a preference for more innings.. Almost certainly, Sonny Gray is going to be receiving a number of offers for handsome money. I hope the Twins use the QO draft pick to find a keeper. (at least better than the one beautiful walleye versus many annoying northerns I managed last week out on the lake).

I'm not too sure these kind of trades happen because of fear on both sides. Usually, the position player should be more valuable even if the pitcher may be in demand short term. The risks with pitchers is higher on most occasions. I'm not looking for the Twins to trade Lewis and you specifically said that there is no way any of these guys are traded, but my question would be . Is LG or GK for RL a fair trade?

Big money. Various sites had Nola around the $25 million per year average, but for 5 years. The highest prediction for total money that I have seen was $150 million. The $172 million is a big chunk of money above the expected, yet it continues the recent practice of spreading total money over years for a lower average per year. Aaron Nola is a very good pitcher but he didn't exactly tear up the league last summer with a 4.46 ERA. The other numbers are off a little bit too. Let us not quibble, Nola is a premier starting pitcher. The signing indicates that the Phillies wanted to keep their two guys at the top and that the price for top 25-40 starting pitchers is going continue to rise. FWIW, Sonny Gray is looking really hot right now.