Brandon

If the Twins offense us healthy, they won't need high end pitching to make the playoffs. An Average or slightly betternthan average rotation will work. With that offense and a slightly better than average pitching, the Twins should score in the + 120 - 160 rins range which is on the 90 + wins range.

It will be fun if Lawyers on makes the big leagues. We can troll teams fans when he wins a game and say they got lawyered.

I would give Happ a better grade then F. He was a solid 4th or 5th starter before imploding his last 3 starts. Be for this starts he was close to a 4.5 era and an even record. That is more of a C-. But yeah it was either boom bust year for our starters. Either they were solid or really bad.

I dont think Thorpe will be on the roster. Good insight on the idea of trading Sano. The thing I struggle with is the 3rd starter the Twins need. I fir sure see Pineda and a solid starter like Ray, Desclafini, Gray, Matz,..... But do they get a third with all of the prospects we have coming up soon and with Maeda potentially back after the all star break but more likely August....

Because of his utility Chris Taylor will be more expensive then say Rosario. Signing Chris to be a SS then super utility when Lewis is ready makes more sense. The outfield should line up as follows: CF Buxton with 100 to 130 starts backed up by Kepler. With 20 to 50 then Gordon with 10 to 15 starts RF Kepler with 100 to 130 starts followed by others see LF There should be 200 to 230 starts in LF and RF to be divied up by everyone else. Projecting who will get how many starts is anyones guess. But here is mine.... LF will be a free for all. Killeroff when not at 1B or DH, Larnarch, Martin, Miranda who also backs up 3B 30percent of the time. Areaz, Gordon both as super utility and Rooker who will also DH. . Not all will be on the roster at the same time several LFers will get time at other positions including RF when Kepler is in CF. Arraez and Gordon will spend time all over the diamond so I have Arraez for around 20 -30 starts between LF and RF and Gordon around 10 between the 2. Martin will spend most of the season in the minors. Miranda could start 60 games at 3rd and 40 to 50 games in LF and maybe 10 between DH and 1B with a month or so in the minors.... Larnarch and Rooker are the Wild Cards as one of these two are supposed to be the LF but neither has claimed it yet.

I am fine with how the pitchers were managed this year. It would have been nice to have an arm capable of going 6 or 7 innings consistently. But I think 1/3 of our games were from rookies who were in the minors last year when there was no season. Also we had a bunch of ineffective pitchers this season which is why we were using the pitchers in the minors. With Ober not pitching over 100 innings before it makes sense to limit his innings. I think another 10 innings wouldn't hurt from another start and letting him go a little longer a few times. but this isn't the year to push that. I hope next year they let Ober and Ryan surpass the 150 inning mark.

I mention in my notes if I couldn't go over budget or if 130 million is a hard stop (we have been closer to 140 in recent seasons so I figured I was still within reason), then I would only sign 1 starter of Matz or Gray or one of several others. That would take off 12 million or 14 million leaving me with 5 or 6 million to use on a reliever. Gant or Dobnak or Jax would be the 5th starter in that instance. with the amount of starters on the way from the minors, having someone who we can replace in the rotation is not a bad idea. But if we are to be competitive for the division and we are using averageish starters, It is imperative we have 5 averageish starters in the rotation or that formula is hard to pull off. in the OF I put a platoon of Rooker and Miranda in LF. so the other one is the 4th OF.

I mentioned Clements because the author said every pitcher with 3 Cy Young's is in the hall. Clements is not. Adam Wainright is a good comparable. Do you think he is a hall of fame? He was a great pitcher but injuries held him back and he is about 1000 innings shy of enough accomplishments to get in IMO

I disagree. Chris Taylor can be brought in to handle SS until Lewis is ready to take over in 2023 or 2024 and Chris can move around the diamond. We obviously have trade options at that point. But compared to the cost of the big 5 SS Chris will be the more affordable option so money can be spent on pitching and Buxtons extension.

I feel he was about 1000-1500 innings short. While he had that huge 3 year run and several other good years. His run wasn't long enough. On a side note. Roger Clemens has more then 3 Cy Youngs and he may not get in either. He has over 350 career wins and over 4000Ks. so go figure.

So I went into this and figured there are several key factors that need to happen. 1. the Twins sign Buxton to an extension. I don't have the specifics for how the incentives will play out but apparently the base pay of around 10 million is agreed to as a good start. So lets get the incentives together and finish this deal. 2. From rotations of Twins past, the Twins have always found value on the Free Agent market. And they go for an average rotation. That is just reality. Since it seems there is a good chance the Twins will resign Pineda if for nothing else to give the rotation 3 starters and allow the team to work from the position of only needing 1 more starter to give us a mostly competent rotation going into next year. in 2021, I think one of our biggest problems was that our 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th starters were all hurt almost all season. in 2022 we have 5 starters who are near ready to pitch in the majors. And with how I reshape our rotation we will have 2 long relievers in the pen who could start or pitch several innings in a game out of the pen. We also have depth like Jax, Barnes and maybe Smeltzer to be a 12th, 13th, or 14th starter..... You can never have too much pitching right? So with all of our own prospects coming up I have us signing Matz to a 2 year 25 million contract. He is good for 5 innings and gives us a chance to win and a lefty for the rotation. Gray is the other starter I signed to a 4 year 60 million contract with a 5th option to make it a 75 million deal. With us having 5 prospects and the return of Maeda, I wasn't sure if this was overkill for our rotation. But since I didn't go crazy spending anywhere else, I figured why not. We could plug any number of starters in place of Matz or Gray. There is also Alex Wood, DeSclafani, Stroman, Danny Duffey, Alex Cobb, Garrett Richards, Brett or Tyler Anderson, Eduardo Rodriguez..... With 5 prospects in AA and AAA and Maeda coming back from a modified tommy John surgery, we have options if we want to sign someone replaceable like Heaney or use Gant or Dobnak in the rotation to save some money. We also have the tools for a trade here with Florida or Oakland. I see one potential mid term contract and a short term contract for the rotation. And the need for depth. In the pen I didn't make many moves. nothing earth shattering. It just feels like we have enough internally to make it work. I can see us signing players on the cheap to compete for spots. and if we get an extra starter then we may not need Gant for next season either. and then we could sign a reliever. Moran is at the ready to be called up, As for the lineup, we already talked about Buxton. I am advocating for Chris Taylor to be signed as he won't require as long of a commitment and he doesn't block Lewis at SS long term. Chris Taylor can be the next utility player to play everyday starting in 2023 if need be. Or he could stay at SS a little longer. The positions will be in flux as players rotate around to give the team flexibility. I see Sano getting the most time at DH but also see Donaldson, Rooker, Killeroff, and others some time there throughout the season. Killeroff, Garver and Sano will man 1B, Donaldson, Arraez, and Miranda at 3B. I see Miranda getting some time in LF along with Rooker, Martin, Killeroff and Larnarch and whoever is the hot bat will get the bulk of the time. If more then 1 bat succeeds in LF don't be surprised to see Kepler lose some playing time in RF. or if/ when Buxton misses time one of the other hitters can get some time there. On the bench, I see Gordon, and Arraez as the 2 go to players and Jeffers as the back up Catcher. As for the 4th OF it could be that 3 OFers Rooker, Miranda, or Martin and Kepler rotate regularly to keep everyone fresh. If Astudillo and Refsnyder do not latch on with other teams I can see the Twins signing them to AAA deals. The Twins love them some depth and until the end of last season when Astudillo cratered he was a league average bat and could play almost anywhere. I do not have him on the bench to start the season but he is there to provide depth. And lastly, If the Twins Budget is 130 million vs the 136 million I used, then I see the Twins only signing 1 starter this offseason and it could be any one of a number of mid rotation starters like Gray or Matz. Someone capable of going 5-6 innings for around 15 million per season The other starter would likely be Gant or Dobnak to start the season. That would free up 5-6 million for another reliever. since one of our relievers would go into the rotation... Analysis: We end up with a pitching staff that would be ranked 5-8 in the league. I think slightly above average but not by much and an offense that just mashes and finishes in the top 3-4 in scoring. We end up +120 - +150 in runs scored vs runs against and win around 88-93 games and make the playoffs.

Mondesi would be a good trade candidate if all else fails. He has speed and some power and no ability to get on base. I dont know about his defense. But he is young enough fir a change of scenery opportunity.

And when I was a teenager the Twins beat the Braves in one of the best World Series of all time.

Your hoping Lewis can grow into a 4th option SS who OPS .590?

I think Iglesias is a good pitcher to sign. I would be open to signing Kimbrel to a 2 year 16 - 20 million total contract with incentives to 24 or 26 million range. I don't think I would offer any more. Though we won with veterans in the pen, Reardon and Aguilera. But I really liked how our bullpen closed out this season and don't think we need too much there. More importantly is making sure we have healthy 6, 7, 8, and 9 starters who are healthy. We had a big problem with that in 2021.

If we resign Pineda then we really only need 1 more starting pitcher at that point. You mentioned 3 perfect options though we might be players for Strongman or one of the top end starters. I am definitely curious to see what the team does this offseason. I don't see Grenke as an option since he didn't want to come here before.

I think both Astudillo and Refsnyder could and probably should be non-tendered. Couloumbe should be retained especially at 800k. Cave is a definite non-tender. and I believe everyone else should be tendered a contract.

If the Twins trade Buxton, they better sign a SS!

This story illustrates why Minnesota will sign Chris Taylor to play SS. He will command a shorter contract at a lower AAV and can play multiple positions hit a good .800 OPS. He is the value play here.

The Twins have several openings including head of research team. Help make your team awesomerr. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/minnesota-twins-job-openings.html

I see the Twins resigning Pineda, and trading for or signing another starting pitcher. I do not see the Twins trading Donaldson. I hope the Twins sign Buxton to an extension this offseason. I will be ok if they don't only if they sign a top tier SS to a major league contract. Though they could sign Taylor to a contract to play SS and when one of Lewis or Martin is ready Taylor can shift to utility player. The Twins have several redundant players available to trade. If the Twins sign Chris Taylor they could trade Arraez, you have Sano, Larnarch, Rooker, maybe Kepler. I here Garvers name come up but I think that would be a mistake. He is a real good hitter and why would we give him up when we just need 1 pitcher and we have so many trade options or could sign someone. In the bullpen it would be nice to sign a lockdown reliever. I wonder how much Kimbrel will cost? I think we have lots of middle reliever options. I also wonder what it will take to extend Rogers and Duffey and if we should?

There are 4 potential non tenders in the group. Refsnyder, Astudillo, Cave, and Coulombe, Maybe Gant but I doubt it. And Minaya has enough of a track record to be back as well.

On pitching. I think the starters will be able to go deeper into games next year. I think this year the Twins decided to be cautious and limit several pitchers to 80 pitches per start as a way to manage stress on a pitchers arm after not throwing the previous year. I also think the Tins will resign Pineda and get 1 more starting pitcher. There are 5 starting pitchers who are top pitching prospects at AA and AAA last season. Our rotation shapes up as: FA starter Pineda Ober Ryan Dobnak/ Gant We also have Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Richardson-Woods, and Duran are all likely to be in AAA in short order if not at the start of next season. Canterino could be in AA as well. That is 6 starters who are knocking on the door to the majors next season. And Maeda will be back at some point after the all star break. So there needs to be some opportunity available to the younger starters to get a spot in the rotation next season. As far as Cruz goes, I am on board with bringing him back on next season. I do think he will regress at some point. And if it is next year, we have plenty of options to give him rest so we can set him up with good match ups. I also think his power will age well regardless. so lets see what happens next season. I would like to see him hit number 500 with the Twins. I also want him to reach over 100 of them as a Twin too. He is about 2 seasons away from being a border line hall of famer. Would like to see if he can set himself up to be a worthy candidate.

THis is what I was thinking on Simmons too. His defense is fine. I expected him to lose a half step in the field. I did not expect his offense to crater. His offense was historically bad. I was thinking of an ops in the .660 - .720 range. He was well below that even. I figured he would get pinch hit for at times or maybe lose a few starts in the field and be the late inning defensive replacement during some offensive slumps and be the #9 hitter. but again I thought he will hit significantly better even if that meant he was still a below average hitter. I will be honest though. I would be ok with bringing him back on a low cost with incentives deal if we do not sign a high profile high offensive SS over the winter. Maybe 5 million guarantee with up to 5 million more with so many plate appearances. 1 that means we signed Buxton to an extension and 2 it means the Twins are planning on 1 of Lewis or Martin to take over SS when ready.

Any time you get 2 to 3 long term players developed and up to the major leagues is a successful year. To have 5 + is great. And we still have lots of prospects on the way..