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weitz41

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Everything posted by weitz41

  1. weitz41
    This should be an interesting offseason when it comes to starting pitching. About 350-360 innings of the 2023 team are free agents. Just guessing and hoping for continued good health. 2024. Lopez 180-200 innings, Ryan 160-180 innings, Ober 160-180 innings, Paddack 80-120 innings and Varland 80-100 innings. Using my finger and toes that's around 180 innings short. Maybe SWR, Festa, Canterino and Dobnak take some of those innings, but I don't think that's a good plan depth wise. So that leaves me wanting at least 180 innings from free agents or players they trade for. I'd say two FA pitchers would be a good call to cover those innings and make the rotation 8+ deep. It's highly unlikely we have another full season of good health. 1st I'd hope to resign Gray. If that happens great. Maybe bring in a rebound type then and call it good. Without resigning Gray. Depending on how you feel about Snell's inconsistency and Nola's ERA, I just think the dollars are going to be way too high to get either of them in a Twins uniform. I'd disqualify Ohtani, Urias, Bauer and Kershaw for mostly obvious reasons. Montgomery would top my list. His playoff run may price him out of the FO's comfort zone. This feels like I could ramble on forever...Something like Micheal Wacha and Kenta Maeda on two-year deals feels about right to me and would cost about the same or less than Gray over those two seasons.
  2. weitz41
    I get the looking at everybody to find ways to improve. 2023 wasn't a great year offensively for Vazquez. When I look at his numbers on Baseball Reference, they aren't that far off his career numbers. Carrer .684 OPS and 83 OPS+. 2023 OPS of 598 and OPS+ 65. He only has 3 above average offensive seasons in 9 years. Most of his value comes from defense and game calling. Is 10 mil a steep price for his offense, sure. Camargo has a total on 90 games in AAA. He needs at least another 1/2 a season there before I'm ready to get too excited about his 21 homers and .826 OPS in 2023. 119K's in 332 AB is more than a little concerning. Now just for the sake of augment let's say we trade him but have to pay 4 mil of his salary. What kind of backup catcher can you get for less than the savings? Sany Leon? I'd much prefer Vazquez over the alternative.
  3. weitz41
    Severino, Miranda, Juilien, Kirilloff, Williams and Prato. Maybe Larnach and Polanco as well. That's a lot of possible in-house candidates for 1B for 2024. If Kirilloff is healthy he should be the starter. From what I've read a torn labrum is a 2-3 month recovery. I could see a 1-year deal for a platoon partner. But would lean to an in-house candidate.
  4. weitz41
    Alonso certainly fits what the FO covets. I was surprised at how little baseball trade values puts on his trade value. Goldschmit as well. I'd be thrilled with either. That being said, there are too many young players looking for a place to play in the field. I'd put a trade as a luxury item rather than a needed addition. Hoskins and Bellinger will likely get QO and be very expensive. Candelario would an interesting addition.
  5. weitz41
    It should be an interesting offseason. I'm guessing the FO will QO Gray and come up short on a 2-3 year contract offer. I expect both of Kepler's and Polanco's option will be picked up, but one will be traded before spring training. I'd keep Polanco over Kepler. Maybe they can swing a trade (and extend) for Pete Alonso to clear up the 1B questions. Move Kirilloff to left field. I don't expect the FO to go after any high-end FA pitching. I could see a 1-year deal for one of the bounce back pitchers mentioned in the article and back fill the BP openings from the minors.
  6. weitz41
    I'm in no hurry to complain or criticize Kirilloff or Walner's performance after the last two games. Springer and Varsho were 0-7 in game 1 of the Wild card round. Do you bench them for game 2? No of course not. The Astro are going to score runs, an extra out don't help, but 5 walks off of Javier and no runs scored is the bigger issue. Much like game 1, a couple of timely hits instead of double plays or K's and it's a completely different game. Sure, Kirilloff and Walner are part of that. Gray and Ober giving up 6 homers in 8.1 innings seems like a bigger issue to me and I wouldn't bench/skip either of them if the Twins make it out of this round. Go with what got you here. Don't overthink it. ASK Toronto fans how that can work out...
  7. weitz41
    Brooks LeeWalker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaDavid FestaCharlee SotoTanner SchobelLuke KeaschallBrandon WinokurAustin MartinDanny De AndradeCory LewisTanner HallJose RodriguezRicardo OlivarCJ CulpepperKala'i RosarioAndrew CossettiYunior SeverinoKody Funderburk
  8. weitz41
    Alot to be upbeat about in the Twins farm system when it comes to pitching prospects. Lewis is well deserving of the #1 spot. Excited to see what next season brings from him. Ohl is a close second for me. I had to look him up on Baseball Reference earlier this season. There is a good MLB pitcher there. I'm rooting for him. AA gave Raya a bit of a downturn but after the initial ouch, he pitched much better. Festa walks per nine makes be skeptical as a starter. Although the stuff is there. Zebby, Culpepper and Morris all look like they could make it in one way or another. I'd be very surprised if 3 seasons ago you could go 7 deep. Then add in Canterino (easy to forget about him), SWR, Balazovic and the 2023 draft class.
  9. weitz41
    No TY. One or both will be back for the playoffs. If the playoffs started the day after either players injury, I'd bet both would have been in the lineup that day. Maybe not at 100% but they'd be starting. Although bring Lee up for the last few series seems like a good idea.
  10. weitz41
    I'm not ready to give the FO a that' A boy about the trade deadline. The schedule, Kepler's turnaround, Polanco finally being healthy, and the young guys are IMO the reason for the second half surge. Most of that probably could not have been planned for. HOPED for sure. Not really buying the everyone else sold, so stand pat suggestion either. How many trades have come through an hour or more after the deadline? Hindsight... On a positive note. The Twins record (this season) against their likely WC opponent gives me reason for optimism. HOU 4-2 29 RS/25 RA SEA 3-4 40 RS/38 RA TEX 5-2 50 RS/33 RA TOR 3-3 28 RS/26 RA
  11. weitz41
    Great article. Win/Win trade and would do it again, especially with hindsight included. Not to mention there's a couple of guys in the minors that may tip the scales down the road. Today, both teams and fans should be happy with this trade. On a side note. It kind of reminds me of the "what to do with Polanco" article last week. I don't remember if there were some similar articles about Arraez last fall/winter.
  12. weitz41
    I'd like to see Polanco retire as a Twin so I'm biased. Pretty easy decision imo. Of course, you pick up his option. Same with Kepler. There's a lot that can happen between the end of the season and opening day. Maybe there's another Luis Arraez type trade this offseason. Lee/Julien/Martin need to take 2nd base from him. Until they do, the best Twins team has him as the starting 2nd baseman. Also, MLBtraderumors just put out a 2024 free agent article on 2nd base options and had this to say.. "Polanco would be the best player in the second base class if he were available."
  13. weitz41
    You can tear this apart whichever way suits you. 2022 11 starts 56 innings of 2.92 era and 1.054 Whip. Outstanding but injuries were the limiting factor. 2023 22 starts 122.2 innings of 4.10 era and 1.133 Whip. Still good numbers for a #4 starter. 2024............30 starts 180 innings? I hope they built him up for that kind of workload. huh.... The point is it seems obvious to me. This isn't the only season to expect and hope for good to great results from Ober. Signing Blake Snell to a contract is a little different then asking 180 innings out of Ober after 56 in 2022. 200 innings of max effort just don't happen if they ever did. So no, they haven't mishandled Baily Ober IMO.
  14. weitz41
    Great article. Many reasons for optimism. If the injury bug stays within reason, I too feel pretty confident in the long term. Lee, Keirsey, Severino, Festa, Martin in AAA all look like possible contributors in the near future. Miranda if his shoulder ever gets right. Alcala, Kirilloff, Gordon, Paddack, Steward as well. Pretty much everyone (maybe not Gray) that will be a free agent this year has a replacement already in AAA or rehabbing. And then there's the rest of the farm. Jenkins, E Rod, Raya and most of Cedar Rapids starters.
  15. weitz41
    I'm in the same boat as not being that high on Lewis. The hit tool and injuries just made me skeptical he would ever be anything close to what he has been this season. Another grand slam yesterday. 3 in 8 games? I'd try to blame it on the Buxton injury trauma but even I'm not buying that anymore... Well, my crow is almost done..
  16. weitz41
    Both teams are in playoff contention. Both teams won this trade. Pablo is a part of the reason the Twins are in 1st place, along with many other things going the Twins way. I was happy with the trade at the time and still am. One thing about his numbers I'd like to point out is switching the 22 Braves, Mets and Phillies for the 23 Guardians, White Sox and Tigers may skew the numbers a bit. Plus, the balanced schedule. Don't take it the wrong way. Pablo has been great but one of the best starters seasons in Twins history might be a bit of a reach. K's are great, trophies are better.
  17. weitz41
    Any or all of the relievers makes a lot of sense. I think there's 1-2 players you could send down and not have to worry about losing them. I'm not really sure on that though. If it requires getting someone off the 40-man roster, then its sketchy for a month of playing time. Maybe 5-8 appearances for years of control on let's say Moran. Not sure that makes sense. I read today Paddack is about to start a rehab assignment and Steward may be back as well. Just other things to consider. None of the bats really excite me. Don't get me wrong they may be an upgrade to a degree, but with so many position players either on their way back or deserving of a cup of coffee it seems like it would compound the roster crunch. And of course, to beat the dead horse one more time.... Sure, Gallo could go, without knowing if or when Kirilloff will be back? Knowing if Buxton can hold up in the OF? Is Kepler going to continue to play well? I may not like it, but right now he provides needed depth in uncertain areas.
  18. weitz41
    3 of the top 25 by mid-season 2024 I could see. Lee getting promoted to MLB and E rod in AA with an .800-.900 OPS. That's if everything goes right. If you're a Twins fan you know how often that has happened. Cherry picking there's a chance Cory Lewis and/or CJ Culpepper make their way into the conversation as top 50 prospects. Don't sleep on De Andrade either. Other than Jenkins that doesn't even include the 2023 draft. Lots to like on the farm. It's not 2017 when Nick Gordon was our top prospect and 2-10 more or less washed out.
  19. weitz41
    I'd absolutely bring him back. There is no need to be in a hurry to move on. $10.5 mil is what 1.5 WAR? Yeah, Yeah, what about Lee and Lewis. That's a 2024 trade deadline issue, maybe. Lee hasn't earned it yet and to part with Polanco I think that needs to be true 1st. After the 2024 season is the time for this topic. IMO
  20. weitz41
    Just stick with what they got there now. More Jeffers behind the plate. Solano if healthy enough, Vasquez if he isn't and Gallo if one of the play-by-play announcers isn't available...
  21. weitz41
    For me it felt like there were around 15 guys deserving of a top 10 spot and another 10-15 deserving of a top 10-20 spot. Alot of depth in the system. I probably was a little hard on injured players but wanted to put the guys with good 2023 seasons on my list over players who barely of haven't played at all. I was surprised how few had C.J. Culpepper on their top 20.
  22. weitz41
    Brooks LeeWalker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaCharlee SotoDavid FestaTanner SchobelConnor PrielippDanny De AndradeYasser MercedesJose RodriguezAustin MartinLuke KeaschallCory LewisBrandon WinokurSimeon Woods RichardsonCJ CulpepperTanner HallYunior SeverinoJose Salas
  23. weitz41
    This one took me by surprise. I hadn't even considered Lee at 1st before the article. Which I suppose it the whole point. If it comes down to it, with the FO stubborn veteran before youth approach, who are you trying to pass through waivers to make this happen? Keep in mind Lewis should be back in a couple weeks and Gordon should not be too far behind. Assuming no one else is going on the IL or being removed from the roster. If it was up to me, I'd put Polanco or Julien there and deal with the consequences defensively. If I'm willing to take the chance on someone making it through waivers my 1st choice would be Chris Williams followed by Severino. Williams has earned the opportunity and appears to be ready. Severino will need to be on the 40-man in Dec or we'll lose him to the Rule 5 draft. I'd keep Lee in AAA.
  24. weitz41
    I'm not a fan of having my foot in my mouth. Some of my comments about Kepler and Pagan apply. So, to TRY and be neutral on Gallo...I have not been a fan of the signing. Not because of what Gallo brings, but because of the guys in AAA because of it. He's a pro and a multiple time gold glover and if I remember right multiple time all-star. So, I get the play for upside. With Kirilloff being injured to start the season and again now, there's some sense to it as well. In hindsight Bellinger would have made more sense and then no need to trade for Taylor and you'd have your 1B coverage as well. August 1st was the time to move on, it didn't happen. So, he'll be part of the team thru the last game of this season. Like it or not.
  25. weitz41
    Sometimes when you're driving down a road in the middle of nowhere and your car is acting up. It's better to get to the next town before you shut the engine off to try and fix or figure out whatever is wrong. Bubble gum and duct tape probably won't fix the issues...
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