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Otaknam

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Everything posted by Otaknam

  1. Otaknam
    Sonny Gray is a bulldog pitcher, but he isn’t an ace. I’m not surprised he went elsewhere, as Rocco didn’t trust usually him to pitch more than five innings. Of course Rocco and the FO are mired in analytics and don’t trust anyone to pitch more than five innings with an occasional exception. That means a starter will pitch 150 innings (5 x 30 starts), and I don’t think the bulldog Gray is onboard with that, and he shouldn’t be. Hopefully the St. Louis FO allows the manager to trust his instincts and intuition and show confidence in their starters, unlike the Twins. That said, I think St. Louis overpaid because Gray is likely to regress at his age.
  2. Otaknam
    The Twins are preparing us for downsizing their payroll because of an uncertain TV contract. Given that, I can see them trading Vazquez, Polanco, and Kepler and going with cheaper, more inexperienced options. Or maybe a cheap backup catcher. That would also save $30 million, some of which could be used to acquire another starting pitcher.
  3. Otaknam

    Seattle wants Polanco

    Otaknam commented on Brandon's blog entry in Blog Brandon

    I would not trade Lee, as he is a potential impact player. Trading Polanco or Kepler as a salary dump wouldn’t surprise me, even if they didn’t get much in return. That would free up $20 million to sign a pitcher. And what about signing Mahle similar to what they did w Paddock?
  4. Otaknam
    I wouldn’t give up on Winder, SWR, Sands, and Balazovic until they are tried strictly in the bull pen. Some guys thrive in that situation and have an uptick in their fastball. And they usually only need one other above average pitch to be effective. Former Twin Liam Hendricks comes to mind. He became an elite closer for several years.
  5. Otaknam
    Any trade to add a center fielder should be for a right handed bat or switch hitter. Adell would be worth a shot if it doesn’t cost too much. He was a highly regarded prospect who hasn’t panned out, so maybe a change of scenery would help. I’m not sure why the Angels would trade Moniak, as he has been solid for them and is another highly regarded prospect who is producing.
  6. Otaknam
    Two years at $18 million per year is waaaay too much for Maeda, IMO, given his age and his return from TJ surgery. I’d rather try to sign Mahle, who is younger but may require a longer contract. So far they’ve gotten almost nothing from the Mahle trade.
  7. Otaknam
    It wouldn’t surprise me if they did something like this, given the need to solidly the rotation and the belief that the team is poised for a real post season run. . But moving Wallner leaves strikeout prone Larnach as the apparent replacement, unless they sign a free agent outfielder to fill the gap, That would be a clear message about how they feel about Larnach. Trading Wallner would be difficult to swallow, given his immense potential and rocket arm. Sandoval would be intriguing to add to the rotation. But Raya looks like the Twins top pitching prospect, and they traded their previous top prospect Chase Petty for Gray. Maybe signing Mahle and keeping the prospects is a better option.
  8. Otaknam
    I hadn’t thought about Polanco moving to first, which isn’t a ridiculous idea. I prefer they keep Julien at second to see if he can become at least an average second baseman defensively. But I’m not surprised if both he and Kepler are traded to free up salary for more pitching.
  9. Otaknam
    It is tempting to go for it in 2024 by swinging a big trade. But Raya is one of their few top pitching prospects. They already traded Chase Petty for Gray, which was fine in the short term. But unless they are willing to pay a big contract for a free agent pitcher, trading your small stable of young starters could hamstring the team down the road.
  10. Otaknam
    The Rays fans have brought that on themselves by their low attendance, which results in trading players before the players want a big contract. I can’t blame other teams for discussing players that the Rays are willing to trade to cut costs.
  11. Otaknam
    Not a fan of trading either Lee or Julien, both of whom are potential impact players and don’t cost too much right now.
  12. Otaknam
    How has Julien’s value peaked? He has always hit in the minors and had a great half season in the bigs, with both power and OPS number. I see a lot more upside for him, a young guy ascending offensively, with the hope that he is at least average defensively.
  13. Otaknam
    As long as it doesn’t include Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, or Royce Lewis I would consider it. I really like Julien’s upside as a hitter. Julien does appear capable of hitting .280 with a high OPS and 30 homers, so his average defense would be acceptable. Trading Polanco and Kepler won’t get them a potential ace, but would free salary for such a move. Some young players would have to be included, but hopefully not the three I mentioned. They are or will be impact players I believe.
  14. Otaknam
    If they think Alonso is the missing piece for a serious playoff run then it makes some sense. They could use a right handed bat. But I’m not a fan of giving up a top prospect for one year of Alonso, even if the Mets cover half the contract cost. The priority should be to add a frontline starter first.
  15. Otaknam
    “He’s shown plus range in the corner outfield, with solid speed and a strong arm that led to 23 outfield assists over the last two seasons.” So he has better than average range and decent speed, with a strong arm and a lot of outfield assists. How does that make him “passable” in the eyes of evaluators?
  16. Otaknam
    Nope! There are untouchable players unless the team is a disaster, which the Twins aren’t. Lee, Jenkins, Lewis, and Lopez are clearly untouchable, given their youth and relatively low cost. You win with high upside players and these guys fit that description.
  17. Otaknam
    I understand that analytics has its place, but I’m not on its bandwagon for baseball. At some point the manager has to trust his players to produce and use his manager’s intuition, especially for starting pitchers. When a starter is mowing down the opposition through five innings with a low pitch count leave the pitcher in! Every inning the starter throws helps the bullpen. As we have seen the unintended consequence of using analytics with starters is to blow up a bullpen, resulting in a constant flow of AAA pitchers to the ML and back. .
  18. Otaknam
    Castro is more valuable than Gordon because of his speed and is also a better defensive player at several positions. So Gordon is a potential for trade. I think Farmer will be traded to save money, and the team has infield depth in the minors to cover. Lewis could play shortstop and Lee, Polanco or Castro could play third occasionally. I believe they will hold onto Polanco unless they get an excellently trade opportunity. Kepler is a likely candidate for a trade, given the outfield depth.
  19. Otaknam
    I doubt Polanco and Larnach could be bundled in a trade for a solid starter, as has been suggested. Polanco would interest a well constructed team that needs a offensive second baseman to complete their lineup. Larnach would draw interest from teams watching their bottom line, who are willing to see if Larnach can make consistent contact and still hit for power. He does have significant power potential.
  20. Otaknam
    Lee and Julien should be considered integral in building on this year’s youth movement, especially given the uncertain salary situation. Both along with Jenkins should be untouchable in a trade. Julien should get better at defense if he puts in the work. But Larnach and Wallner could be valuable assets in a trade because of their power, with both being at least average position players with good arms. Miranda is a bounce back candidate, but wouldn’t draw much trade interest. Polanco and Kepler could both be on the move to save money, though Polanco is still the better hitter historically, and he might still be with the team in 2024.
  21. Otaknam
    If the team could print money like Boston, New York, Dodgers, then yes. But with no TV contract for next year this isn’t happening.
  22. Otaknam
    Hoskins would be a good addition, but at the expense of Kiriloff’s development. He is also a needed right handed bat, which Bellinger isn’t. Any free agent needs to be a right handed bat or switch hitter, and preferably can play defense.
  23. Otaknam
    Kevin Kiemaier Is another lefty bat with a lefty oriented lineup. So I don’t see the fit.
  24. Otaknam
    The fact is that Buxton cannot be counted on given his injury history. Hopefully his rehab over the winter will allow him to play 125 games at defense, but clearly that cannot be counted on. They need a backup plan like 2023. Not sure Austin Martin is the answer. Signing Michael A. Taylor for one year isn’t a bad idea. Good glove caliber defense and some pop, despite the high strikeouts. Whatever they do, don’t put Lewis back out there!
  25. Otaknam
    I expect Gray will reject the QO and become a free agent. But I’d be very surprised if he gets three years for $60 million, given his injury history. That’s a lot for a 5-6 inning starter, even by today’s MLB salary structure. I hope he comes back, but I don’t expect the Twins to offer more than 2 years.
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