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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Minneapolis is viewed as an singular entity. Plenty of suburban people got caught up in the effects of the riots, and then the police shortage where crimes are rampant and they go unpunished. Friends who've watched their stuff get stolen and jails wouldn't even take the suspects who were arrested with outstanding felony warrants during COVID. I had suburban friends who were dining in a restaurant when bricks came through the windows during the riots. I had friends who were scared to death living in South Minneapolis as their garage was broken into and looted multiple times. I know a lot of service industry folks who are very concerned about working Uptown after having their friends held up at gunpoint for their tips, and those service workers make sure they park in the same ramps as the police typically park when working downtown events. One of my friends refuses to work at the Fillmore anymore. You walk the wrong direction, and you can find trouble. Car jackings were daily news events. One of my black friends was actually a little scared to come here on a visit because of reputation. She was disappointed to discover there was no excitement, just a really pretty city. The reputation of Minneapolis is one of not caring about most crimes, and short staffed to deal with the crimes they do care about. Neighborhoods suburban folks used to live in and frequent had major violent crime issues recently (Uptown, South), and that impacts the perception of the city as a whole for a long time. Suburban and rural communities care about prosecuting crime, and they assume the lack of criminal prosecution is synonymous with high crime rates.
  2. bean5302
    Do you think sports on television has a big impact on high school kids? Soccer wasn't big on television, but it's exploding in interest levels. Baseball has a reputation as boring. Old. Obsolete. What would happen if the Twins gave away 2 sections of tickets to high schools for every game? What would happen if Twins minor leaguers showed up to local high school games? What would happen if the Twins actually marketed to teenagers instead of 4 year olds who have no money and grow out of the sport?
  3. bean5302
    I'm with @Mike Sixel in regard to taking more pitchers early on. Brecht was pretty enticing, and while there is a sentiment the Twins can just take a round 20 unknown and make him throw 98 to turn him into a rotation weapon, that really hasn't happened yet. The only prospect the Twins have successfully drafted, developed and added to the rotation with an unexpected velocity increase has been Bailey Ober who added 3-4mph on his still below average heater, along with exceptional control which has allowed him to stick towards the end of the rotation. Varland, now with a substantial track record, and Festa, who has clear limitations, are long shots as viable starters despite making the big show. Making MLB is a major success for late rounders, but 80% of first round picks make it. Tampa Bay drafts pitching, pitching, pitching. There's a reason they churn out so many arms, and it's not just because they're good at development. They have a surplus of early round selections which go into the rotation, and that surplus has led to profit. Since starting pitching commands such a huge premium, hitting on a single starter can net Tampa Bay 2-3 very good position player prospects. Falvey's approach of "I can just create starting pitchers" has yet to bear significant fruit, and he's overseen the least successful front office since the early 2000s when it comes to developing pitching, though there's always tantalizing promise in guys coming through the low/mid minors. There may be some change in the wind with Matthews and Morris, and with Simeon Woods Richardson finally starting to pan out, it seems like Falvey's hot seat might be cooled slightly.
  4. bean5302
    Season ticket sales didn't materialize during or after the playoffs last year, and that was well before the Twins mentioned slashing payroll or the TV debacles. Attendance is down largely because season ticket holders are down in my opinion. The offseason reduction to only the #19 spending club in baseball (will be #1 in the AL Central at the end of the year) isn't the issue. The TV debacle isn't the issue this year. It's probably had little meaningful effect. The Twins' ownership had spent $150MM and had TV contracts the two prior years, but attendance was poor then as well. The payroll slash and TV debacles might have an impact in the future, but it was too late to make a big splash on attendance this year IMHO. Dave St. Peter needs to be removed from his position and replaced with somebody who better understands how to market the product. That much is exceedingly clear.
  5. bean5302
    Kirilloff has no trade value. He'll be arb 2 this offseason, and he hasn't produced a single WAR in his career. In fact, nearing 1,000 PA, Kirilloff's career fWAR = 0.1. If he didn't have options, he'd be a DFA candidate. Detmers hasn't even hit arbitration eligibility and has options left next year. He's got a career FIP of 4.18, and it's 4.38 this year. No way the Angels are trading basically a Bailey Ober for an non-tender candidate. Detmers put up 2.2 fWAR in 2022 last year. 2.5 fWAR last year. The only issue Detmers has is giving up gopher balls hanging a few pitches. Seems like a little mental issue he's working through as his BB and K rates are good, and his average EV is solid. SIERA is 4.00 this year.
  6. bean5302
    Here I thought it was Miranda with the heel injury? If Correa is hurt, he'll be replaced for the ASG. I haven't had time to look at much with a huge home project turning things into a disaster.
  7. bean5302
    While I would have liked to see the Twins take the series out in SF to move the Giants further back, it wasn't a complete disaster, and they got a look at one of the top arms likely to be available at the trade deadline. Blake Snell is still going to opt out if he pitches well down the stretch, and the Giants are going to be open to moving him if they're in the same spot as they are right now at under .500. Snell's earning $15MM this year in salary, with a signing bonus of $17MM split 50/50 between this year and next, which should make him very affordable. If Snell opts out, the Twins would be on the hook for as little as $5MM.
  8. bean5302
    Carlos Correa should go out there and kill it during the All Star Game. The Minnesota Twins can use all the good publicity they can get, and Correa has worked his ass off to deserve the nod. Guys can get hurt partying after games, they can get hurt riding their bicycles, and they can get hurt in a car accident. These players already have "don't do" lists 1/2 a mile long restricting their activities outside of the sport. They're human, it'd be nice if they get to live like it.
  9. bean5302
    The article talked about top prospects, though it's hard to delineate there what that means. About 80% of 1st round picks make the big show. About 20% become starter caliber or better MLB players.
  10. bean5302
    I wasn't disagreeing with you or the OP. I was agreeing with the sentiment no starter who isn't worthy of being a top 3 on a playoff team should be added to our roster. I also added a reference as to what happens in the event of a longer playoff series where a #4 comes into the picture and how important that #4 be a borderline playoff starter really is in terms of being competitive.
  11. bean5302
    For the Twins, certainly, player performance and development is all over the place in the minors and MLB. It happens elsewhere, too. Acuna, Rodriguez, Manoah, Keith, That said, derailment of development timetables for injury is one thing. To have players struggle on a repeat of the same level and then go on to be studs at the MLB level doesn't feel very common to me. In any case, it's okay for a prospect not to work out. They usually don't. Explanations like "it's not linear" should be pretty well taken care of by the time they hit MLB, but it still occasionally happens that a player needs a reset in the minors to work on something. That's a big reason why options exist. That said, the Berrios' of the world aren't incredibly common. Guys who stink at the MLB level, then go down and come back up to dominate. There are tons of "sophomore slumps" which are actually just opponents figuring a guy's weakness out. Looking at the top 20 fWAR position players in MLB right now (not named Ohtani): Harper, Lindor, Marte, Duran, Devers, all had what I'd call a hiccup in their development. That's about a 25% chance. At least a couple of those guys were in the big show at age 20-21. Lewis is probably the most glaring example of non-linear development on the Twins right now. Nothing in his MiLB career really pointed to him being good at the plate. He looked rough in AA before he lost a couple years, but when he came back, he was a totally different player. An MVP caliber guy. Wallner changed his approach at AA a couple years ago when he learned he wasn't on the path to ever being a big leaguer because he was Eddie Rosario out there, hacking away at bad pitches. I don't think it's a coincidence those adjustments were made pre-AAA. 75% of the time, when you see a hiccup, it's not a hiccup. It's a talent ceiling being reached.
  12. bean5302
    I suppose it depends on whether or not you consider Paddack better than Ober. Personally, I think he's well lower than Ober, but it's clear Ober isn't a guy who would really be considered a preferable option as a playoff starter. 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Woods Richardson 4. Ober 5. DNP That's probably the order the front office is looking at right now. The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have potential playoff caliber starters at #4, but the rest of the AL likely playoff teams are 3 quality playoff arms deep before you start getting into the guys you have less confidence in being great.
  13. bean5302
    It's hard enough just knowing if the kid is 16 or 26 down there, LOL.
  14. bean5302
    I'm in the minority who thinks trades should be viewed retrospectively vs. what actually happened (barring unforeseen injury). It doesn't really matter if a company's leadership is consistently explaining "it should have worked!" They get shown the door. In terms of actual value, it's unreal how successful the A.J. Pierzynski trade was. In fact, it indirectly even led to Jhoan Duran. Pierzynski -> Nathan + Liriano + Bonser Bonser -> Chris Province (end of story) Liriano -> Escobar + Pedro Hernandez Escobar -> Duran + Ernie De La Trinidad + Gabriel Maciel Nathan was a HoF caliber closer. No reason he shouldn't be in there. He was arguably the most dominant closer in all of baseball (including Mariano Rivera) for several years, and even with anybody over a 7 year peak. Liriano was a upper/mid rotation arm in his prime (better than Joe Ryan), and Bonser was serviceable as a back end starter. Like many fans... if only. If only Radke wasn't trying to pitch with a broken shoulder. If only Liriano hadn't torn his UCL. The Twins would be World Series Champions in 2006.
  15. bean5302
    Yeah, but the odds the other team has 4 playoff caliber starters is also at a minimum so your back end guy vs. their back end guy. Evens the odds most of the time, haha.
  16. bean5302
    I don't huh? Oh if only it were 2023 again, but it's not. Go troll someplace else.
  17. bean5302
    It does matter if they keep him. Kyle Farmer is reducing the chances Twins win ball games when he plays. He is a known quantity, and since he's becoming a free agent, it's unlikely he has future value for the franchise. It doesn't matter who replaces Kyle Farmer because whomever the Twins choose (like from the list I provided) they won't reduce the chances the Twins win by any significant margin more than Kyle Farmer would, but the player chosen might significantly increase the odds the Twins win. Kyle Farmer is the floor of expectations and production. He's at 0.1 WAR so 0.3 WAR on 150 games. That's AAA replacement level. Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee were recently declared MiLB guys who were not ready to compete at the MLB level in a Manny Margot or Willi Castro thread recently by a substantial number of fans who love Santana or Margot whatever. Turns out... maybe they were ready for MLB? That's what the Twins are missing out on by keeping Kyle Farmer on the roster and in the lineup. Another potential Brooks Lee or Matt Wallner who are single handedly winning games lately while Farmer is out there losing them by getting TOOTBLAN if he actually does get on base. I have absolutely nothing against Farmer. I thought he'd be a solid player this year like he has so many years before, but he's not. In fact, if I was Farmer, I'd request an assignment to AAA in the hopes he can turn a corner with some everyday playing time because if he doesn't do something, he's on a guaranteed MiLB contract with an invite to somebody's Spring Training. Or maybe he might actually be tradeable for a org 20-30 prospect to the Marlins if the Twins eat his contract. They're going to be eating it anyway.
  18. bean5302
    Who are these 3 playoff caliber starters you're referencing? Joe Ryan (who has collapsed every 2nd half in his career), Simeon Woods Richardson (117 IP last year on pace for 160 IP this year)... and? Lopez = 5.11 ERA Ober = 4.14 ERA Paddack = 5.18 ERA I think the Twins are looking pretty dicey at those playoff caliber starters right now.
  19. bean5302
    I don't see that as a deal making sense for either side. Toronto wants to compete, and Berrios is a long term asset for them. For the Twins, he's a mid rotation guy, he doesn't slot in at the front and he'll be expensive (both prospect and payroll).
  20. bean5302
    He'll be interesting to watch as he moves up since he's so inexperienced, and there's so little info out there on him. I don't take a ton of stock in Fangraphs pitching analysis on its own. It feels like they're obsessed with velocity, but 97mph in rookie ball from a 19 year old unknown is eyebrow raising.
  21. bean5302
    I look at things this way for starting position players: Full year viewpoint < 0.0. You're not part of the problem, you're the WHOLE problem. Please don't be on a big contract. 0.0-0.9 WAR. This is a critical weakness to address. 1.0-1.9 WAR. The team should try hard to upgrade from you next year if they're planning to compete. 2.0-2.9 WAR. You're doing your job okay. Kind of the meat and potatoes of a competitive MLB team. 3.0-3.9 WAR. Borderline All Star 4.0-4.9 WAR. All Star. These guys get you to the playoffs. 5.0+ WAR. Best player on the team. These kind of guys put the team on their backs in the playoffs.
  22. bean5302
    I'll 1,000x down on that. Vazquez's fWAR is -0.1 after 50 games, and MLB owners proposed using fWAR as a basis for player compensation. It's also worth noting multiple players are on record saying WAR is the most important stat for any player in terms of negotiations. It's the defacto "how good is a player?" as evaluated by the people who employ baseball players. Lets go ahead and say it's considered a fairly good estimate of player value. Christian Vazquez, by very definition, is worse than your average AAA call up catcher. That's not MLB caliber. He's not great at blocking. He's not great at controlling the run game. He's very good at framing because he's short He calls a good game (analysis attempts have been unable to prove game calling is even a "thing" and ask Jhoan Duran about Vazquez's amazing game calling. Catchers don't need to call games anymore since they can get a cheat sheet or they get their direction from the pitching coaches/dugout)
  23. bean5302
    He's playing. Rehab assignment started 2 days ago. He's in Ft. Myers in the CPX league. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/emmanuel-rodriguez/sa3014693/game-log?position=OF
  24. bean5302
    You're hoping the White Sox beat more contenders or you hope the Twins beat more contenders? The White Sox took their series' against the Braves, Rays, Cardinals, and Red Sox. I don't think they're probably doing to do a lot better than that. The Twins have won or tied like 10 series' against potential playoff teams this year.
  25. bean5302
    ...and I don't care about the opinions of a pitcher who only cares about his own personal results rather than the team's performance. Vazquez isn't MLB caliber. He's on the team, he's getting paid $10MM, he's going nowhere. He's as good as a random AAA replacement player overall, and the Twins probably aren't going to spend more on the position. But he's good at defense!!! So is every single catcher in MLB. Every last one of them is good defensively. Way better than any beer league softball catcher. The difference between Vazquez and the worst defensive catcher in the the big show is literally 1.0 WAR over 50 games or so. Luis Campusano has the same WAR as Vazquez, ironically (0.0). Because Campusano is a poor hitter at wRC+ 85 but just not as rough as Vazquez. Literally, the absolute most miserable defensive catcher in MLB with a slash line of .230/.277/.364 OPS .640 wRC+ 85 is just as good as Vazquez with his near elite defense.
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