bean5302

a28 - 752 PA, .250/.293/.392, OPS .685 wRC+ 92, 4.3% BB, 22.7% K <-- Nick Gordon a27 - 1501 PA, .248/.305/.389, OPS .694 wRC+ 91, 5.7% BB, 24.1% K <-- Willi Castro I'm not saying Gordon is as good or better than Castro, it's just a little entertaining to see how recency bias creates heroes or demons out of players on fan sites, haha.

I think it's a fine regular season rotation considering how strong I expect the hitting to be. It's probably a major weakness in the playoffs, but it's not an impossibility one of the rotation arms could take that major step forward to fill a #2 role. I think the greatest chance of seeing a playoff starter emerge might be Ober, but it's tough to believe he'll continue to outperform his FIP and xFIP so much. 2023 3.43 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.20 xFIP = Ober 3.66 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.28 xFIP = Lopez 4.51 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 3.76 xFIP = Ryan 4.63 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 3.81 xFIP = Varland Career 3.63 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.14 xFIP = Ober 3.86 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.64 xFIP = Lopez 4.05 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 4.01 xFIP = Ryan 4.21 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 3.85 xFIP = Paddack 4.40 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 3.90 xFIP = Varland I don't think the Twins probably need to do anything until the trade deadline as a rotation heavy on #4's can certainly get you to the playoffs, they just won't let you advance.

Kyle Farmer owns a career wRC+ 122 against lefties.

It's a wonder we don't see more calls to demote Royce Lewis to AAA to clear roster space for Brooks Lee. After all, that'd free things up to shift Carlos Correa over to 3B and let Brooks Lee have the shortstop role, and Royce Lewis isn't having a great Spring Training, either. I'm going to point out, this is an equally ludicrous proposal.

Not as old as I felt at the gym last night... grumble grumble

The Twins' value has increased at about 8.9% on a cumulative average annual rate since being purchased by Pohlad for $45MM total in 1984 to $1.39B today. It sounds like a huge gain, but it's less than the rate they'd have earned investing all their money in the S&P 500 (the most common Stock Index Portfolio). Fans rabidly demand higher payrolls and increased investment from owners in the pursuit of a World Series Championship, but at the same time, complain beer is expensive (me included), and the franchise has likely posted negative operating income 3 of the past 4 years (lost money). Savings accounts rose to 8% in the 80s before dropping back to 5% in the 90s. They tanked as the mortgage security market collapsed for good reason. Banks can only invest money in a very few ways in an extremely highly regulated industry. Mortgages. Government Bonds. After that, things get awfully complicated and financially risky for a bank. Aside from that, savings accounts are a horrible, horrible investment. They're similar to a money market account. Designed to securely hold value, not increase in value like a traditional investment. They feature poor returns because the money is so liquid. Aggressive liquidity rules means banks have to be careful to invest savings account deposits in short term, highly liquid assets which have poor returns. Thus, savings accounts also have poor returns. When MLB fans stop buying beer, prices of beer will decrease, etc. The Twins cannot dictate to the MLB market what fair pricing will look like. In regard to the players; they chose this structure. There are plenty of other structures the MLBPA could have agreed to the owners would have been happy with. The MLBPA has focused on delivering maximum compensation to elite and veteran players while minimizing compensation to younger or less talented players. In 2022, the top 1% of incomes was $800k, and the top 0.1% was of American incomes was at $2.8MM. The average MLB player is among the highest income earners on Earth. There are players who are worth more than owners. Some principal owners have a total net worth as low as $400MM. Shoehei Ohtani just signed a $700MM contract. The vast majority of players who reach the MLB level are drafted in the first 10 rounds and receive 6-7 figure signing bonuses at age 17-21. Owners and players are in the same category. Ultra wealthy. Keoni Cavaco's signing bonus was $4MM. That's a working lifetime of $100k per year average salary.

The Twins' bullpen is crazy deep. Losing Duran still hurts because of how well he can close things out, but it's not like there aren't more arms on the team who can fill a high leverage role adequately. The rest of the reported injuries don't really impact the team over their injury replacements or how minor they are, IMHO.

So you're saying Correa and Buxton should be writing checks to the Pohlad family, right?

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-anthony-desclafani-il-bound-with-forearm-strain/ Pretty decent level of speculation Desclafani could require surgery. His elbow been a long term issue dating well back into last year at this point. Not promising.

Not concerned about Buxton. Unfortunately, obliques don't heal quick so I wouldn't expect to see Duran much before May. Desclafani going on the IL at least provides clarity and an opportunity for Varland. It's Varland's rotation spot to lose at this point. If Varland pitches well, and Desclafani doesn't need TJ, I expect the veteran arm will probably be moved to the 'pen. Theilbar's spot will probably go to Funderburk.

Imagine somebody making minimum wage breaking their back at a warehouse turning down $100k for a remote job tapping out words on a keyboard in a comfy office chair. It's certainly fun to dream about having the talent to be paid like that, but for the players, it's about being paid fairly for the value they provide relative to their peers. :)

First, the proposed trade is a significant overpay by the Twins. Second, the Dodgers don't need a SS. Third, it doesn't help the Twins since Margot is not a RHB outfielder, he's a part time utility outfielder who can cover center field. The need is center field to back up Buxton, not corner outfielder to back up Wallner or Kepler and Adnes has no place in CF. Forth, Adnes is a middle ranked prospect probably in the top 200ish? Brooks Lee is an elite prospect. I think somebody got a little excited by Spring Training stats...

Snell and Montgomery massively overplayed their hands by trying to demand 7-9 year contracts up to $290MM. Snell had a 5-6 year $150MM offer from the Yankees and he turned it down. At that point, there was still plenty of season left, and it should have been obvious where the marketplace was at. I'm not sure what they're thinking at this point, but their value has probably bottomed out at this point.

As I recall, Baldelli talked about Joe Ryan needing to walk more guys in unfavorable counts. Not that walks are good, but it's better than grooving a fastball in the meat of the zone just to avoid a walk on a 3-1 or 3-2 count. I don't know if that's necessarily true or not (Ryan trying too hard to avoid walks), but hitters absolutely tee'd off on Ryan in the 2nd half, and the Twins clearly didn't have a ton of confidence in Ryan come playoff time. I do not share the optimism of most fans when it comes to Ryan. Having one excellent pitch and a few borderline serviceable pitches is almost always a recipe for bullpen arms, but Ryan's stuff seems to play just well enough to keep him in the rotation for now. I think he's flashed his ceiling already, but I also believe he can probably hang on to a #4 type starter role for a while longer. None of the Twins' starters behind Lopez have a legitimate upside of a #1-2 rotation arm in my opinion, but stranger things have happened. I also don't think the Twins absolutely need a top of the rotation pitcher at the moment. They can go get one before the deadline. The rotation seems plenty deep with #4, high floor guys, and that's a fine recipe for making it "to" the playoffs with Lopez in the rotation.

Vazquez has some up and down seasonal performances recently, and he's not quite old enough to write him off completely. Just have to hope this is one of his "up" years, I think.

He's not. Wallner had a slow start in 2022, but... 2023 AAA (3/31-4/15) = .280/.333/.600 OPS .933 wRC+123 2021 A+ (5/4-5/14) = .289/.378/.553 OPS .930 wRC+ 147 This spring Wallner is missing pitches by a bit. He's generating a lot of pop ups and not many line drives so it looks like there's a little hitch in his game he'll need to address. It's a non-issue at this point. Spring Training is nothing like the regular season.

Having a pitcher address a hitch in their mechanics or make an adjustment to tipping pitches or something in game is huge. Making those mindful adjustments carries over with muscle memory, and being able to make them during a game has got to be incredibly valuable. When it comes to the length of Spring Training, it's good. It should definitely not be shorter. We've seen what happens when Spring Training gets condensed, and it's a huge pile of injuries. Guys are starting their real on the field workouts for the first time in months, and veterans are especially susceptible to an odd pain or tweak here or there shutting them down for a week or two. Relief pitchers are probably the least in need of a long spring, but plenty of hitters develop a bad habit they need to work out or have some timing issues they need to work through.

I would be stunned if Wallner was left off the 26 man after being one of the best hitters producing on pace for a 4 WAR full season in MLB last year. Spring Training has nearly two weeks left. I'm confident Wallner will get it together, and even if he doesn't, there's no way to say he's not working on something. The Twins know what they have in Larnach. He's solid injury replacement depth, but he comes with maybe a 1.5 WAR ceiling due to his below league average bat. He's probably best considered a lefty version of Kyle Garlick on a team that doesn't need more lefty bats. It's a shame for Larnach because there are a few teams around the league where he'd have a better shot at some playing time.

I tend to agree. St. Peter does seem to be a weakness for the organization. From his inability to put people in the seats to his failure to find a better TV contract this past offseason.

Alex Kirilloff laid an egg and Sonny Gray didn't catch it softly enough as I recall.

Soto is literally 18, was drafted out of high school last year, and hasn't pitched a single game in the minors. He was pitching against some of the Rays very top prospects who all had MiLB experience last year, some of whom are even at the AA level. The fact the Twins put him out there to begin with is pretty impressive.

Shouldn't really be a problem. Kyle Farmer has also been a catcher at the MLB level.

It's an unusual take to treat a really high BABIP as a positive skill for a hitter. Generally, high BABIP is largely luck driven and a red flag for regression. Such is the case with Ryan Jeffers. There's a 99% chance he will not repeat last year's performance, and if he does get that 1% season, it'll be luck based again. There's not really a question in that regard. Jeffers has huge raw power, and well above average game power, but it comes with lots of swing and miss, and he doesn't hit much in the way of line drives. Combined with his lack of speed, his batting average should probably hang out in the .230ish area. I expect Jeffers will produce at a .235/.315/.445 or so pace through his prime. Good for a wRC+ of 105ish. He's about equivalent to Gary Sanchez with a little less power and a little more hit tool. I think Vazquez could bounce back to 2022 levels with the offseason work, but he's probably in the twilight of his career as a catcher entering his age 33 season.

Winning a World series sounds great. You have to get there to win it. If you do the straight math, a team should get to a World Series once every 15 years and win it once every 30 years. 2008 World Series (L) 2020 World Series (L) 2008 Division Champions 2010 Division Champions 2020 Division Champions 2021 Division Champions 2011 Wild Card (1 of 1) 2013 Wild Card (1 of 2) 2019 Wild Card (1 of 2) 2022 Wild Card (1 of 3) 2023 Wild Card (1 of 3) It's worth noting the Rays play in what is historically the toughest division in baseball trying to eek out wins against the monster market Yankees and Red Sox. Credit where credit's due. 9 playoff berths in 14 years from 2008-2023 and 2 World Series appearances. Compare that to the Twins. 6 playoff berths, 0 World Series. 0 AL Championship series playing in what has become the weakest division in baseball over the past 5 years.

Tampa Bay is an embarrassment to MLB. While their methodology technically works, it only works because the team is a charity franchise floated by the other teams in the league, and that's part of their strategy. The Rays' owner doesn't care about the fans, the attendance or fielding a team that supports itself. Many teams receive revenue sharing, including the Twins, but no team builds revenue sharing as a core component of the franchise's long term operation quite like the Rays do. In terms of the Rays' player development and roster strategies, the Twins do not closely emulate it in my opinion. The Rays draft pitching, pitching, and more pitching which is a major reason the franchise is so successful at continuing to produce quality starters. Controllable starting pitching demands a significant premium, and the Rays trade that controllable pitching away at a premium to make up for their lack of position player drafting and development. This is a market inequity the Rays exploit. The Rays then fill out their roster with short term, low dollar veteran players who are rebound candidates or guys who might have a year or two left before the wheels fall off. I'm not sure the Twins have followed the Rays in terms of on field strategies much, either. I think the Twins have their own evaluations for strategy. Kind of a convergent evolution where we see overlaps of similar strategies on the field.