bean5302

It is hard to follow, and there are philosophical questions which come into play as to who gets credit for drafting and development. For example, based on what I read, the Twins get all the credit for drafting and developing Joe Ryan despite the fact they did neither thing, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are the reason the Twins were moved so far up rankings somewhere or another in the evaluation. I appreciate the authors efforts to quantify the development in a meaningful way. These types of projects are enormous undertakings that are probably best left to data sites and active databases. Maybe Fangraphs will take up the data processing at some point in the future.

A mid rotation starter who's been struggling a bit isn't what I'd be excited about.

The Twins need a left handed platoon bat like a submarine needs a screen door. If they want a lefty bat, all they have to do is look down to St. Paul (Wallner), (Julien) or Wichita (Rodriguez). As far as pitchers are concerned, the Twins probably don't need the depth as adding to the top creates depth and provides the team with a playoff caliber starter they honestly need. I don't think Severino is probably that guy anymore, even if his results are decent. He's not the ace he looked to be 5 years ago.

It's super straight forward. Q) Is Varland a legitimate option as a rotation arm? Yes -> Keep him pitching in the rotation in AAA to see if he can get better results. No -> Move him to the bullpen and hope for the best. We're probably on answer "No" regardless of whether or not skimming the box score made him look good in his last start. He didn't miss bats against one of the worst teams in baseball, had a 108mph rocket ship come off one of his pitches, allowed a 12.5% barrel rate (terrible) and had an average exit velocity of 91mph (terrible). Even after the game when he was interviewed, he wasn't at all unhappy about coming out after 5.0 shutout innings. You could tell he knew he was lucky not to have owned a few crooked number innings out there. Depth isn't a concern. Varland is either a legit MLB caliber starter or he isn't. Wishing he was simply because there aren't other options doesn't transform Varland into a good option.

No team in baseball wouldn't want to add a 4 WAR (All Star level) player. Guess All Stars are "good" not "great" Both Bellinger and Chapman are on pace to perform at about that level. Btw, no Twins position player on the team put up 4 WAR last year. Being angry about a team spending $3.5MM-7.5MM per WAR for a one year contract on a well known, veteran player who isn't in the twilight of their career in free agency is highly unusual to say the least.

I think it's great Woods Richardson took note of his lack of performance and took steps to address it. For years the Twins had been trying to get him to adjust and stick to better mechanics, but the way this article words things makes me pretty concerned about the coaching situation in the minors. Why did Woods Richardson have to approach the coaches? Why wasn't this brought to him before as a "you should try this because you're not good enough to make the big show as you are"? Is it not the job of coaches and the development team to identify ways to correct or improve pitcher performance? I've considered the situation as SWR being uncoachable until he finally realized he was about to wash out, but perhaps it's the Twins' development team which needs some additional management? Woods Richardson, I think, has saved the Twins rotation. I don't think it's an overstatement, despite some of the commenters thinking the statement is just hyperbole. Pablo Lopez has been pitching like Dallas Keuchel, there was a major downgrade to our rotation from last year watching 3 of our top 5 opening day pitchers walk (Gray, Mahle, Maeda), and the front office sourced zero external replacements. This left the rotation depth razor thin, relying on a failed starter who was moved to the bullpen (Varland) to slot back in when a dubious option (Desclafani) went down for the season before ever pitching a game. SWR has gotten results like we'd expect of Lopez, while Lopez has pitched more similarly to what we would have expected from Varland, Desclafani or Woods Richardson himself. There's no good reason to suspect the results to continue as they have been up to this point as SWR has a 4.09 xFIP right now, and he hasn't generated a lot of pop ups to make the HR/FB rate stay well below average, but the Twins' position in the standings would probably look a lot more bleak if he hadn't come up and put on his best MLB ace costume for a few starts now. The 97mph fastball from last game might suggest there's more velo in the tank and more ceiling to find in his game, but I'm already a bit concerned with durability of suddenly adding 3-4mph one day in Spring Training, let alone 7mph+. Hopefully, SWR remains healthy and continues to improve as he learns to pitch with this sudden and unexpected added velocity.

No, he wasn't doing well in AAA to end the season. He was doing poorly. From 8/1+ in AAA last year: 4.80 FIP. The 1.28 WHIP (acceptable) came with an unsustainable .239 BABIP. For example, on 8/2, Woods Richardson went 4 innings with a 0.00 ERA, but he walked 6 guys (13.5 BB/9). The results on a quick surface looked better, but what was really happening underneath was not. Based on the underlying 20% K rate (poor), 13% BB rate (terrible), and the expected home run rate based on fly balls, I'll continue to believe all Woods Richardson's box cars had derailed through the entire season.

The giveaways have gotten very cheap. Unless you get to the game early, you wouldn't even get the fridge magnet schedule the last couple years. It's pretty embarrassing.

Jordan Montgomery wasn't a guy I wanted to target since I just didn't feel like he was elite. At the price points pitchers went, Sonny Gray was a no brainer. Just another round of Derek Falvey and the shiny things distracting him. I also thought Snell/Boras were absolutely out of their minds seeking $200MM, but I'd have been interested in him on a pillow deal, just not as late as he finally signed or for the money in the current year because he'd have missed at least the first month for a reasonable team. The Giants decided to toss Snell out there without any Spring Training, and... imagine this now... it didn't work out. Snell's only making $15MM this year, FWIW, it's that $17MM signing bonus payable in 2026 that gets nuts. In regard to their performances: Chapman is exactly what you'd expect. On pace for a 4 WAR season with a bit better than an average bat and good defense. Scorching good deal for SF at just 1/$18MM (3/54 total with player options) Bellinger is good. wRC+ 117, playing solid CF. His value is down because the Cubs are DH'ing him, but he'd be a 5 WAR pace guy playing CF full time. He's on a one year deal, and he'll be opting out. Good deal, even at 1/30MM. Snell was allowed to pitch right out of the gate and he clearly wasn't ready. Plenty of time for him to rebound, and quite frankly, I don't think the Twins would have been on board with him pitching MLB without an extended ramp up in the minors. I think he'll opt in, but that opt in could actually be a bonus for SF next year. There's also plenty of time left this year for Snell to right the ship as the K's are there, he's just missing too often. I don't think declaring this a bad/good deal is possible yet. Montgomery is the tough one. His velocity is down, which turned some K's into BB's and HRs. He'll be opting in for next year almost certainly as his vesting option has vested. So one great deal, one good deal, one questionable deal and one bad one.

Feel free to look at the MLB payrolls real quick. There's plenty of "silly money" being handed out across the league. 9 teams are over the luxury tax threshold this year. The issue in this past season's case, and previous under Boras, is teams weren't willing to buy in on one year wonders or ignore a bunch of red flags like they didn't even exist. We also saw this the year prior with Correa's deal dropping from 13/350 with SF to 6/200 with MN. Boras has been pushing the market to ignore red flags, and it seems like he's found the limit after the players seemed to massively overplay their hands. Contracts had been getting longer and longer, but I think that trend is cutting back.

Fun game at Target Field. Didn't get there enough for the whopping 5,000 caps that were supposedly giving away. My friend 12% wanted one and we were way before game time, but no matter.

Yeah... for a broken down a31 middle reliever, LOL Plus Nick Gordon had 8x the career WAR as Kirilloff...

Fact! Bears eat beets. Bears... beets... Battlestar Galactica

I'd like Kirilloff for Skenes more...

I don't exactly agree. The problem was this front office's (and Baldelli's) ironclad belief in a huge platoon advantage to the point it was acceptable to assume pretty much all left handed batters were nothing more than platoon specialists, and the failure to understand an average left handed batter is not better against RHP than a good right handed batter. This front office (which Baldelli is tied to) A) Constructed a roster designed around platoons, wasting limited resources B) Never gave their LHB the opportunity to prove they could hit LHP. C) Deployed platoons poorly, in ways that would always limit the success of their strategy D) Annoyed me, personally, on at least 3 occasions. <--- this is the real dealbreaker.

Getting meatballs in the MiLB system helps make guys look a lot better (Chris Parmelee)

I consider Lopez to be pretty similar to Jose Berrios in terms of value. Even though Berrios is chided against for his 2022 campaign (5.23 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.21 xFIP), Toronto went 23-9 (.718) in the games he started that year. Berrios gave the Blue Jays a quality start (5+ innings ERA under 4.00 or 6+ innings 3ER or less) in 19 of those contests. Lopez has long been an up and down pitcher without many long streaks of dominant starts you'd associate with elite starters (aces). Sonny Gray opened the season with 6 consecutive stars allowing 2 ER or fewer, and 9 of his first 10 games doing that. He only allowed more than 3 ER in 3 games last year, and only 2 with more than 4 ER. Lopez did have a similar (but less impressive from an ERA/FIP standpoint) 6 game run as Gray last year, but he had 8 starts allowing more than 3 ER, and 7 of those more than 4 ER. If you reframe expectations for Lopez to be Berrios, Lopez's rough start is a lot easier to accept, and a lot less worrisome than if you expect Lopez to be a front line starter.

Agreed. It's hard to be worth less than PTBNL or cash considerations, and that's where Kirilloff is today. The question is whether or not Kirilloff is here next spring since he's on the path to DFA. Regardless of how negative my take on Kirilloff is right now, going down to AAA might allow him to make some major adjustments to his stance and swing which could potentially open a new door to him. Gotta do something if he wants to play again in the big show.

We're not playing last year over again, though. We're looking at what players are doing this year. Lewis RHB vs. RHP = .318/.375/.909 OPS 1.284 Miranda RHB vs RHP = .285/.323/.491 OPS .814 Larnach LHB vs. RHP = .256/.321/.436 OPS .757 Kirilloff LHB vs RHP = .203/.271/.392 OPS .663 Julien LHB vs RHP = .207/.309/.367 OPS .676 Kepler LHB vs. RHP = .235/.300/.390 OPS .690 Margot RHB vs. RHP = .182/.260/.242 OPS .503 Seems like Lewis and Miranda are just fine not being platooned... because they're better than the lefty bats who the Twins would actually use as platoon hitters against RHP.

I don't think the Twins would have let Snell start out of the gate like the Giants did, and I suspect there are more than a few teams keeping a close eye on the NL West standings and last year's Cy Young winner. Snell could be a good trade target for the Twins at the end of July.

You're not sorry so why say it unless it's obvious sarcasm? Also, why apologize to me? I might not even be one of the people you initially insulted. The backhanded "I'm so smart nobody can tell I'm throwing insults at them" posture you've taken is a bigger insult than the thinly veiled intent of your comments in the first place. Side note, I'm not at all mad, and my comment has nothing to do with baseball at all. It's a pet peeve of mine when people debate the validity of the person making the argument rather than the subject of the debate, and that's what you've done in the comments I take issue with. I can be hypocritical doing the same thing from time to time, but I try hard to avoid it.

I like Thielbar's commitment and his attitude about it all. He's an easy guy to cheer for, but as you say, he can't be used in medium/high leverage right now. He's working a lot higher up in the zone with his fastball to try and compensate for what he thinks is a lack of rise, but I think that just results in the batter expecting the pitch to land high and it actually landing high so the batter puts the right swing into motion to zero in on the pitch. His rise isn't elite on the fastball, but it's been far above average this year. His real issue is probably control/walks, and with him aiming higher, he's going to get more pitches called balls, dropping him behind in the count and forcing him into bad situations.

Kirilloff is not in the same category as a guy like Wallner (352 PA, wRC+ 129) or even Julien (602 PA, wRC+ 124). Julien, by the way, was always at the very edge of sustainable plate approach methodology. There's nothing new about that. Everybody following metrics and Julien knows he was riding a razors edge, but he could still put it back together. Julien's struggles are exactly what scouts and fans alike are concerned about in Emmanuel Rodriguez's somewhat similar results. Also, Julien worked hard at improving his defense, and although I'd still grade him as pretty rough looking, he's definitely improved. Kirilloff (884 PA, wRC+ 100) was already arb eligible this past offseason, he's 27 with 900 MLB plate appearances across 4 years under his belt. Larnach (830 PA, wRC+ 99) is closer to Kirilloff in terms of how much of a longshot a player might be to turn it around since Larnach had about 700 plate appearances coming into this season, but Larnach has great baseball instincts which allows him to be relatively neutral as a corner outfielder. I never expected Larnach to show what he has this year with the reduced K rate pushing his bat to a different level, but I always accepted Larnach gets the most out of his game his limited athleticism can grant him. Larnach is also still a long shot to keep producing, but he's at least earned a long look. Conversely, Kirilloff continues to drop routine fly balls, position himself incorrectly, and miss infield grounders. On Tuesday, I watched Kirilloff awkwardly misplay a throw to first by Jeffers to catch a runner leading off too far. I cringed as @RpR popped into my head while I thought "Santana makes that play." Of course, after Kirilloff didn't truly want to accept responsibility or say the right things after costing the Twins a playoff game vs. the Astros last year after a defensive flub at 1B, he could have gone all in this offseason learning 1B, but it doesn't seem like he did. Alex Kirilloff has a very low ceiling, even if he does reach his potential. With a swing designed to produce line drives rather than fly ball home runs, an inability to take walks, no athleticism, and poor instincts, he's at best a 1.5 WAR DH or 2.0 WAR 1B if he improves everything about his game as his absolute ceiling in my honest opinion. I made the Nomar Mazara comp for Alex Kirilloff on another thread. If you look at the two from an expectations and career batting results standpoint, it'd be impossible to tell them apart without a hint at who was who. Certainly other teams have prospects who are a flash in the pan or struggle from time to time. I saw some pretty ridiculous comps in here, though. Julio Rodriguez? That Julio Rodriguez? The one with 12 career WAR at age 23 who is wRC+ 96 this year while still on the path for 2.5 WAR campaign? Jackson Holliday? 36 plate appearances from the 20 year old who the Orioles are manipulating service time rather than demoting because of his results; he's a comp for Twins prospects struggles? Colt Keith is 22 with 206 PA... If we want a comp, we can use Spencer Torkelson (1318 PA, wRC+ 91). He's also only 24, but he's probably more of a bust than a guy with a hiccup. Not all prospects work out. Kirilloff is one of those who is a long shot to ever produce enough with his bat to justify more than a journeyman status like C.J. Cron, but even that level will require Kirilloff to learn to play defense and improve his bat a little. If the Twins DFA'd Kirilloff today, it'd be shortsighted, but it's unlikely they'd regret it.

I don't have nearly the experience or behind the scenes baseball knowledge anybody playing or coaching/managing in MLB has. I can tell you definitively Joe Mauer was better than Drew Butera or Mike Trout was better than Ben Revere because I can evaluate the players compared to other players. I don't need to be a position player or catcher to do that. I also don't need to be an MLB manager to second guess decision making which appears bizarre or that other teams openly criticize (like the Yankees broadcasters recently). Btw, baseball coaches, managers and players were not the ones who developed the best stats used to evaluate game performance. Writers and stat heads and geeks were. The very same stats that Baldelli and this front office live and die by, and the stats which have totally changed how baseball is played. Your comment is nothing more than a smoothed over, pompous attempt at gatekeeping who gets to speak or have an opinion, and how much of an opinion, based on the criteria you have chosen.

Wallner had a wide range of outcomes on that "double" since it landed in the glove of the CF'er but popped out as he hit the wall. It could have been an out. It could have been a stand up triple instead of being called out at 3rd (looked safe to me) as Wallner slow trotted out of the box thinking it was a home run. Not sure Martin has what it takes to succeed at the MLB level, but he's certainly shown huge improvement at the plate in AAA since his demotion. Martin's AAA triple slash before today looks like a video game. .305/.470/.407 OPS .877, 22.9% BB, 8.4% K (yes that's the correct ratio) wRC+ 142. After a SSS slow start in A+, Doncon is already rebounding. Nice to see the bat heating up as he's not Noah Miller in the field.