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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Drafted out of high school 2020 (obviously didn't pitch much) Shoulder strain kept him off the field all 2021 Shoulder tightness showed back up in 2022 which shut him down for early/mid August After that point, the Twins severely limited his innings/pitch count. 2023, started with a 3 inning limit, never pitched more than 54 pitches in a game. 2024, started with a 3 inning limit again, recently pitched 60 pitches. Basically, the Twins are concerned his shoulder won't handle a full workload so they're bringing him along slowly.
  2. bean5302
    Huge Royce Lewis fan here. Easily, EASILY my favorite player on the Twins. The rehab process is going like this: Play in games -> base running -> rest/check in with how his quad is feeling -> fielding. Fielding will put the greatest load on Lewis' quad because of the start, stop, change direction, leap, off balance movement. This is what the trainers and coaches are saving for last, and Lewis will only be cleared to start fielding in games when he demonstrates his quad feels good after hitting well and running the bases hard without any tenderness or tightness the next day or the day after. If you've hit the gym you know day 1, if things are sore then day 2, things will be way more sore. I expect Lewis could join the Twins on their next road trip sometime, but I'd be awfully surprised to see him before that.
  3. bean5302
    I don't think you should let it go. Somebody at the top of the Twins needs to be terminated over this. Maybe the plug gets pulled on Joe Pohlad or maybe it's time for St. Peter to turn in his corner office. The cluster#*@& fans have been handed by the front office and ownership this year has really damaged the organization's reputation. I'm very skeptical I'll have seasons again next year.
  4. bean5302
    I'm not really sure what to make of SWR, and I think it's hard to for probably even the front office to know what to make of him considering the drastic change he's made to his velocity this year. It's clear he's got a very short leash with Rocco, and that might have to do with SWR struggling to repeat his mechanics for 6 years now. There's probably plenty left in the tank to be tinkered with after literally adding 5mph to his fastball this spring, but I just hope his arm doesn't fall off.
  5. bean5302
    I don't see Kepler getting a QO because he'd almost certainly take it. He's going to be operating on 1-2 year contracts going forward due to his oft injured nature, and declining speed and defense and age. Kepler's xwOBA this year is similar to 2022's campaign, but his actual production is on par with last year's so there's reason to expect some regression, but let's assume he keeps up production close to his current level and ends the season at 3.5 WAR. What kind of contract do people think a 32 year old, 3ish WAR caliber right fielder will get? 2-3yrs for $32-40MM is I'd say his limit. $21MM for a single year is almost a no brainer for Max to accept, IMHO. It's also a price the Twins cannot come close to affording.
  6. bean5302
    You're missing the point. In any case, I expect Ryan will turn right back into a pumpkin like he always does. Makes some adjustments, scouting reports lag behind, hitters adapt, Ryan gets destroyed. Rinse, repeat. It is impressive Ryan is able to keep finding magic tricks that work for a couple months, though. I've got zero faith in Ryan ever being more than a back end guy.
  7. bean5302
    Margot is not as good as what teams can find for the league minimum salary or on the waiver wire. I don't think people understand how terrible Margot has been. Nobody pays money for that. If Margot is going to be moved, it'll be through DFA/release. I don't know as Falvey will do it since he hung on to Gallo last year for months and months or terrible results. Margot is the weakest player on the roster, and he's incapable of fulfilling the only role the Twins really needed him to handle.
  8. bean5302
    Julien's line, literally only 13 days ago .228/.342/.433 OPS .781 wRC+ 125. He's had a bad 10 game streak. I'm not a huge advocate or believer in Julien, but a bad 10 games isn't going to get me on board the demotion train. Brooks Lee, OMG!!!!!! Brooks Lee!!!!!! has no business near the Twins' roster until at least after the ASG.
  9. bean5302
    Maybe, but they're probably not as stressed as you might imagine since they churn out more than 1 good pitcher per decade. It's a novel concept in Minnesota.
  10. bean5302
    Scherzer seems like a bull in a china shop based on his reported temper tantrums and lack of professional conduct at the last CBA meetings. I'd expect he probably does things his way. I'd hope veteran pitchers do the same and give Baldelli two fingers from the mound if he's actually calling the pitches.
  11. bean5302
    Taking 2 of 3 from the defending World Series Champions is fine in my book. The recent discussions about whether or not the pitch calling comes from the dugout makes me wonder. If a pitcher just doesn't have a good feel for their pitch and Rocco's spreadsheet says he's supposed to throw it, what happens? Does the pitcher have to throw junk because the spreadsheet says to? Just a random thought. I DON'T have compelling evidence that's really the way it works. It would just be so stupid I refuse to believe it. Also, I think we can officially put the "Pablo Lopez! Cy Young Favorite" stuff to bed for this year again. In any case, I can't put the blame on Lopez alone. The Twins aren't going to win many games scoring 2 runs anyway. I was at the game. Nice attendance, and the crowd was pretty energetic for the stuff the Twins actually did which was exciting. I attended with a friend and their young kids. Very different experience, very little game watching opportunity, haha.
  12. bean5302
    EmRod sounds too much like Nimrod... LOL
  13. bean5302
    and if he finishes the year at wRC+ 90? Negative value on a team with a payroll crunch. See book of Vazquez, chapter Christian.
  14. bean5302
    Festa is beginning to get it done at this point. The strike ratio needs to come up a bit still or he'll struggle at the MLB level, but it feels like he's making the necessary adjustments to fine tune his game, and I'm happy to see it. The first 3 starts to the year looked like the same 'ol, same 'ol from him. After that, Festa really seemed to buckle down on the free pass, but it initially came with hard contact and elevated home runs. It's seeming like he may be making another step forward. The trend is an improving FIP, though his walk rate is still too high overall, and over the past 3 games, he's gotten his home run rate down. Have to watch to see if it continues. First 3 starts. 8.1 innings, 2.16 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 10.80 K/9 (25.6%), 9.72 BB/9 (23.1%), 2.04 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9 Last 7 starts. 30.2 innings, 2.93 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 14.67 K/9 (40.7%), 3.23 BB/9 (8.9%), 1.14 WHIP, 1.47 HR/9 Last 3 starts. 15.0 innings, 1.20 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 13.20 K/9 (38.6%), 3.60 BB/9 (10.5%), 0.93 WHIP, 0.60 HR/9
  15. bean5302
    80 pitches for a guy like Raya is 4-5 innings. He needs to get into the 90s to be able to deliver 5 innings reliably. 2 years ago, the Twins were letting him get to 80, but at least they're letting him out of the 40s, now.
  16. bean5302
    It's a pitchers job to get outs, but if you put the pitcher into a bad spot, they're better off risking a walk than trying to force a risky pitch past an MLB hitter.
  17. bean5302
    Rodriguez (LHB) is raking. .280/.469/.585 OPS 1.054 wRC+ 185 25.6% BB, 28.1% K, .394 BABIP vs. .300/.441/.490 OPS .931 wRC+ 144 19.3% BB, 24.6% K, .393 BABIP (Julien at AA) This is the concern with Rodriguez and continues to be the concern. Feasting on mistake pitches or only pitches in a handful of locations is Julien's MO, and there's a great deal of concern on whether or not Rodriguez's play style will be exposed by pitchers who have a much higher command of their pitches (MLB). If we were to work on a 1-5 scale for stuff, command and control A Ball - 2 stuff, 2 control, 1 command A+ Ball - 3 stuff, 3 control, 1 command AA Ball - 4 stuff, 4 control, 2 command AAA Ball - 4 stuff, 5 control, 3 command MLB Ball - 5 stuff, 5 control, 5 command <--- it's the command that kills guys like Julien/Rodriguez. I'm not sure there's a lot left for Rodriguez to prove in AA anymore. He needs to see more polished pitching. Guys in AAA are generally a step up in terms of locating their pitches, but it's not like Rodriguez has a scouting report book built yet.
  18. bean5302
    So you still need 3 outs per inning so even if you have a crappy 2B who can't turn double plays, it just increases the chance the SS gets an additional chance to field another ball that inning. That would lead to an additional putout or assist for the SS. I can't say how much wiggle room there is in the statistics.
  19. bean5302
    I'd have to look at 2022's Texas League stats for other players to compare. 809 vs. 658 is better. 2022 3.13 Michael Guldberg MID (Oak) 2.76 DeShawn Keirsey Wit (Min) 2.58 Jorge Barrosa AMA (Ari) 2.55 Nick Loftin NWA (KCR) 2.54 Esteury Ruiz SanA (SDP) 2.52 Cade Marlow ARK (Sea) 2.24 Jeren Kendall Tul (LAD) 2.21 Mike Antico STL (Stl) 2.31 JP Martinez FRI (Tex) 2.07 Wilyer Abreu Cor (Hou) He was near the top in 2022. I'm still going to go with Keirsey's career numbers, though. I suspect he's going to be Austin Martin in the field.
  20. bean5302
    It's the best I've got. :/ It's also why I compared Keirsey vs. his peers (who played the most innings for their respective teams) in the Texas League of AA to try and keep it as apples to apples as I could. The difference between Keirsey and his peers who saw the same hitter opponents is pretty stark. Keirsey wasn't abominable, but he was far below average. Probably a scale like: 2.70+ excellent 2.60-2.69 good 2.50-2.59 average 2.40-2.49 poor < 2.40 terrible CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87 SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82 MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72 ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60 FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57 AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55 WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41 SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31 NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23 TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16
  21. bean5302
    I am so excited for Royce Lewis. I can't help rooting for him. Even though it's logically hard to believe he'll stay healthy, the world deserves it!
  22. bean5302
    5 Stars, would read and watch highlights again! haha. I enjoyed hearing his thoughts on Matt Wallner, especially. Sounds like Wallner is really pressing super hard.
  23. bean5302
    A poor fielding or weak armed 2B would hurt a SS's stats a bit. Not OAA, which purely looks at athleticism, but things like UZR, DRS, TZ, and RF use putouts + assists or double play rate in calculating defensive value. Bobby Witt, Jr. is possibly the best defensive shortstop in baseball right now. OAA +10, UZR/150 +4.8, but it's being held back by the "range" component of UZR so that will probably shift positive over time. Witt's also one of the best hitting SS's in MLB right now. Real MVP candidate at this point.
  24. bean5302
    I believe Baldelli talked about Ryan needing to be more willing to walk people a year ago. Walks haunt, but they haunt a lot less than leaving a meatball over the plate to avoid issuing a walk, and the Twins' starting pitchers are struggling with that particular issue having the worst barrel rate against in baseball. Their hard hit rate and exit velocities are middle of the pack so it's boom or bust, much like the team's recent years batting philosophy. League average barrel rate is 8.2%. Varland 13.8%, Paddack 10.3%, Ober 9.4%, Ryan 9.2%, Lopez 8.5%, Woods Richard 8.3% are all worse than league average in that category. I don't have enough time to research how the Twins' pitchers fare vs. average on walk rates and barrel rates based on the count.
  25. bean5302
    ...and he's -23 DRS/yr this year. All his years of fielding are small sample sizes because he's been used as a utility guy. That's why I use his career numbers. Castro does not currently have more effective range than the average left fielder because he runs poor routes so it takes him more distance to get to the ball, offsetting his small advantage in speed over the average left fielder (27.4 ft/sec vs. 27.9 ft/sec). He also has a poor error rate. If the Twins deployed him as a starting left fielder instead of a utility player, I do expect his defense would improve to be above average. Sprint speed starts declining after age 25, in general, dropping 0.5 ft/sec isn't ginormous. Could be Castro gained 10lbs or didn't adjust his offseason workouts to keep his speed or maybe he had a small tweak of his ankle or something hampering him a little. If Castro keeps performing at the plate, he's certainly going to be tendered at $6MM, but he'd be better used as a full time outfielder than a utility guy since I'm not sure there's space in the infield. Tough to say how the the year will shake out in terms of roster, prospects, etc.
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