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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Kudos to Pablo getting out-dueled by Cade Povich in an absolute must win or season over game. Lopez was a big reason the Twins struggled this year. The "ace" managed to put together a solid season for a #4 pitcher. Thankfully, we've got several more years at only $22MM coming up.
  2. bean5302
    MLB also has 130 players who are qualified as hitters (average 4-5 per team). Only 2 for the Twins. Willi Castro and Carlos Santana. Last year, only 1 Twins player qualified, Carlos Correa. Platoon city.
  3. bean5302
    Correa has a full no trade clause and the Twins would have to eat a substantial portion of his salary to make it happen, IF Correa was willing to go to one of the 5 teams in MLB who might be interested.
  4. bean5302
    I think Lopez would get around his current AAV and his current years in FA, but probably an extra year for 4 at $80MMish. He's comparable to Eduardo Rodriguez IMHO.
  5. bean5302
    I was at the game last night through the 10th inning before departing before it got too late for me and a friend. This team is just not very good, but it was a great night for a game for sure. The tiny crowd was also quite electric considering the size. It was really a fun atmosphere, honestly.
  6. bean5302
    There is basically no such thing. There are maybe 2 posters who seem to actively blame fans for the attendance woes. The rest of the site seems to be: 1) It's the Pohlads fault for not being willing to bankrupt themselves over the next decade. 2) It's the Pohlads fault for suddenly backtracking on their financial plan, not holding their incompetent CEO accountable for ineffective marketing which resulted in the poor attendance, and not holding anybody accountable for the crazy TV debacle.
  7. bean5302
    Lopez is the easiest way to temporarily relieve the payroll crunch, though his value isn't going to be as high as people might think. He'll bring back a top 50 prospect or an average org top 3 and a org top 5-10 or something like that. Maybe less considering how poorly he pitched for the first half of the season considering his $22MM salary coming in. The biggest issue is the fact the Twins will no longer have a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher on the roster after doing so. It'd cost an enormous amount of capital to make up for that.
  8. bean5302
    This is why ownership's 180* about-face in regard to "right sizing" and comparing themselves to other teams they didn't even research (Like AZ and BAL) was infuriating. Ownership accepted a long term approach, then wanted out of their investment.
  9. bean5302
    The Twins are at $140MM with the existing guys they control even if they decline Margot and Farmer because the following players are hitting or advancing in arbitration. Willi Castro Arb3 $6MM (+$3MM) Royce Lewis Arb1 Super2 $4MM (+$3MM) Trevor Larnach Arb1 $3MM (+$2MM) Ryan Jeffers Arb1 $5MM (+$4MM) Alex Kirilloff non-tender Joe Ryan Arb1 $5MM (+$4MM) Bailey Ober Arb1 $5MM (+$4MM) Cole Irvin Arb2 $4MM (+$3MM) Jhoan Duran Arb1 $3MM (+$2MM) Griffin Jax Arb1 $4MM (+$3MM) Brock Stewart Arb1 $2MM (+$1MM) Michael Tonkin Arb2 non-tender Justin Topa Arb2 $2MM (+$1MM) That's an increase in $30MM of player salary coming from arbitration, even if the Twins non-tender Kirilloff and Tonkin (not that either would matter much). In addition, Carlos Correa goes from $33MM to $37MM. and Pablo Lopez jumps from $8MM to $22MM. Just the increases for Correa and Lopez basically entirely offset Santana, Kepler, Desclafani, and Theilbar.
  10. bean5302
    Mercedes doesn't have a 24% K rate. Think it was like 21%? I was talking about Beltre (who played in the DSL)
  11. bean5302
    I honestly would have made a $20 bet Buxton would never play 100 games again in his career after the last couple seasons. The Twins got more playing time from him this year than they could have expected. I expect 80 games a year. That said, he's still an 80 game a year guy in my eyes.
  12. bean5302
    Yasser Mercedes all the way for me. CPX results are way more important to me than DSL as I feel it's a substantially higher competition level. A 24% K rate in DSL is pretty concerning to me.
  13. bean5302
    BR's salary estimator is not exactly accurate. It shows 57 players with salary. Plus, guys like Giovanni Gallegos' option being picked up. An extra 17 players adds a lot of MLB payroll, even at league minimum.
  14. bean5302
    The 2023 Rangers have been mentioned a few times recently as a comp for the 2024 Twins. I understand why people would like to make that comparison, but they're two dramatically different teams and situations in reality. 9/1 2023 Rangers (75-59) .560, Pythag (83-51) .617, +169 runs WC3 +1.5 GB 9/15 2023 Rangers (82-65) .558, Pythag (87-60) .589, +159 runs WC2 +1.5 GB 9/25 2023 Rangers (88-68) .564, Pythag (93-63) .599 +169 runs, ALW Lead +4.0 GB* *+2.5 games up on Houston for the AL West Division lead. The Rangers lost the division title on the final day of the season, tying Houston for the AL West, but losing the tiebreaker. There aren't many similarities between Minnesota and Texas. Texas had one of the best run differentials in baseball, was rising in the standings without any degree of likelihood of missing the playoffs (97.1% in playoffs, 86.9% to win the division) by this point in the season, and had recently gotten back major reinforcements in the rotation.
  15. bean5302
    Polanco was always going to either be traded or option declined because of his salary and the Twins payroll. It would have been the height of incompetence for Polanco to remain on the Twins. Unbelievable, even. Farmer was expected to be traded or option declined (even Farmer was surprised he was with the Twins this year). It's only Falvey's incompetence on display that Farmer remained in a Twins uniform at $6MM. After those two guys were gone (as per any reasonable offseason plan), it was what? Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin (AAA) as 2B depth, and the Twins prefer to deploy Castro as a utility guy. Brooks Lee was coming off a poor AAA showing last year. Julien was definitely slated to be the planned primary 2B so he wasn't ever going to be a planned trade considering the Twins had no legit backup for Buxton, and they like using Castro as super utility. What actually happened (Farmer sticking around) makes it possible to consider a scenario where Julien gets traded for pitching this past offseason, but it wasn't reasonable to expect.
  16. bean5302
    Every game is all hands on deck right now. We've seen Baldelli is managing the team with urgency for the past few games as the Twins are 2 (kinda 1) games back with 3 games to play. Baldelli is also likely fighting for his job... and the jobs of his bosses. I'd even venture to say panic mode has been activated.
  17. bean5302
    So the implication here is Baltimore is going to throw the series against the Twins... who are the team Baltimore could potentially face in the first round of the playoffs as a result? Baltimore wouldn't want their hitters to get good looks at the Twins' bullpen pitchers and best starters just before the playoffs start?
  18. bean5302
    SWR would be the scheduled Game 1 starter on Oct 1 right now. Festa on short rest? I don't see the Twins doing that, but who knows? Nice to see a win, but I think the season is done. KC, Seattle and Detroit all won tonight.
  19. bean5302
    Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered and he'll have to sign a pure MiLB contract somewhere. Julien has no trade value, but he still has options. No reason to cut bait on him right now.
  20. bean5302
    The Twins lost money in 2022. The Twins made money in 2023, but likely only due to the playoffs. I had no problems with ownership adjusting their payroll for opening day to avoid a possible loss if the regular season went poorly and the team didn't make the playoffs as I felt $130MM was "adequate." By the way, the Twins project annually, every year. I do feel like they built in a little "cushion" there they didn't really need, but whatever. The problem most people had with the "adjusted" payroll was virtually every single team in all of baseball would have kept (actually expanded) the budget to continue capitalizing on the growth in excitement and interest the first playoff win in 20 years created. The Pohalds decided to "adjust" it instead. What really burned me, and almost everybody else, is the trade deadline. After ownership clearly failed the fans with the TV debacle, the team was highly likely to make the playoffs again, attendance was similar, and attending was more expensive. There was every reason to substantially expand the payroll at the deadline, but the wallets remained slammed shut.
  21. bean5302
    Most of the time, Target Field is empty. While attendance numbers might say a whopping 20k of people are there, the reality is actual attendance is much lower. Maybe 10k fans in the seats. The upper deck is virtually empty, and that contributes to a lack of ambiance and excitement. The "Lets get loud!" every 17 seconds is just trying to cover up for the lack of natural ambiance so it doesn't get awkward, and it exhausts the fans' enthusiasm. If you have 25% of the fans engaged with each "lets get loud" chant or event and you have a sellout, it's going to be energetic each time. Like it was in the playoffs last year. When you've got 10k people in the seats, 25% doesn't get it done.
  22. bean5302
    I decided to look ahead at probable starters/order. The Twins cannot hold anything back by skipping a start to restructure their preferred starters since their back is against the wall. Lopez and Ober likely start against the Orioles the last 2 games of the season... meaning the Twins playoff rotation looks like: 10/1 Wildcard Game 1 - Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Zach Eflin (@BAL) or Hunter Brown (@HOU) 10/2 Wildcard Game 2 - David Festa vs. Corbin Burnes (@BAL) or Framber Valdez (@HOU) 10/3 Wildcard Game 3 - Pablo Lopez vs. Cade Povich (@BAL) or Yusei Kikuchi (@HOU) Doesn't look pretty.
  23. bean5302
    Yes. Julien is now where Larnach was a year ago. Julien is considered low value injury replacement depth at this point. When Brooks Lee leapfrogged Julien, and Julien moped and subsequently struggled to find his game in AAA, it became clear what direction this was heading. Julien can resurrect his career still, but this has been a truly catastrophic year for him. He's going to need to swing at mediocre pitches like Larnach started doing in an attempt to put more balls in play. BB rates are going to plummet, strikeout rates should also drop, but the razors edge approach Julien had been using is clearly not sustainable.
  24. bean5302
    It's not about baseball. People do not go to baseball games to "watch" baseball. People do not go to football games to watch football, etc. People go to the game for the experience. Take me out to the ballgame Take me out with the crowd Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack I don't care if I never get back Lets root, root, root for the TWINS If they don't win it's a shame For it's 1-2-3 strikes you're out At the old ball game! The bolded part of that song is the only part that has anything to do with the actual game of baseball.
  25. bean5302
    From last night's game. It really was a beautiful night for baseball. It would have been better with a win or more fans in attendance to experience some really cool clouds!
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