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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Luis Robert's probably worth AFV of $50MM with a salary of $20MM through 2025 at the trade deadline, including the Twins eating $5MM of current year salary. So that nets out at a Surplus value of $30MM. The package you proposed doesn't get it done considering Gonzalez's apparently serious back strain. He hasn't played in a month and a half and isn't close to returning. I think Emmanuel Rodriguez + Marco Raya is probably the ask for Robert, provided he's back and hitting well, TBH. Before you balk at the price tag, consider the White Sox don't have to move him right now as they have 3.5yrs of team control over him, and there will be other teams in the mix.
  2. bean5302
    I think Sano will find a spot, but I also think there's probably a lot of bad blood between Sano and the Twins. Specifically, the Twins towards Sano.
  3. bean5302
    The budget has been spent? News to me that Joe Pohlad came out and announced the Twins have no budget for the deadline. I'd speculate the Twins would be willing to take on another $5-10MM of salary if they're in a good position at the deadline, especially after cutting payroll back as much as they did despite turning a profit last year.
  4. bean5302
    Just like the new logo in general, lol. The good 'ol North Star, the one used specifically by maritime navigators... "Mariners" At least the City Connect jerseys feature MN and not just "M" Can't say I care for the "ripple" effect as it just looks like stripes which aren't even consistent in their direction. Maybe making it look like it was a single piece of fabric rather than scraps sewn together was too expensive?
  5. bean5302
    The jersey looks cheap and piecemeal, the way the "ripple" changes directions at the jersey sewing points. Something I would have done with a sewing machine as a kid in Home Economics. There are some city connect jersey's I really like, but a lot I don't. This is definitely a "don't like."
  6. bean5302
    You're right. An SP1 wouldn't make the Twins substantially worse as a team so they'd still be better than the extreme luck fueled Guardians. As far as on par with the best teams in baseball, probably not, but the 1987 Twins had the 9th best record in baseball. They were an average team with only a couple real good pieces. You have to make the playoffs before you can win playoff games. Now, what would an SP1 cost? That depends on team control, contact AAV and how they're pitching up to the deadline point. If Blake Snell were to rebound and have a great 5-8 start history before the deadline while being healthy, what would he cost? Probably not a ton. He'd be viewed as a potential rental with a big negative in the player option. If the Diamondbacks are out of it, Zac Gallen would require a lot more prospect capital. He's cheap this year and he'll be under market value next year. Probably 1 top 3 prospect, plus another 1 of our top 5s, plus 2 more of our top 10s. But, Falvey will do this. His job is on the line as his contract is over this year, and Joe Pohlad made it clear the team's expectations have shifted from making the playoffs/winning the division to advancing in the playoffs.
  7. bean5302
    You're looking at Brooks Lee's rehab assignment Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels stats... He's actually .214/.313/.214 OPS .527 wRC+ 48 in AAA. Wallner's coming around, though, and it's just a matter of time before Kirilloff wears out his welcome on the 26 man. Not a hard swap to make.
  8. bean5302
    Trollin' Trollin' Trollin, wabene man is trollin'... along!
  9. bean5302
    Why are you bringing up pitching when the Twins scored 0 runs?
  10. bean5302
    Before we get too excited about Miller, he's on a repeat at A+ level in his 3rd full season in the minors with a .255/.340/.372 OPS .712 line which is good for a basically league average wRC+ 104. It's a small step forward at the plate, but he's going to need to add some game power or start hitting more line drives. He's been one of the slickest fielding shortstops in the minors, if not the outright best, so he's not going to need a plus bat to make it at the MLB level, but he's still not projectable. The guy we got for Noah Miller is 20 year old shortstop Rayne Doncon, who was just promoted to A+ level after he hit .283/.374/.464 OPS .838 wRC+ 138 in Ft. Myers. He's been ice cold in Cedar Rapids so far in 65 plate appearances, but his K rate hasn't jumped so a lot of the ice cold is probably luck.
  11. bean5302
    Glad to see Jackson having a good time out there, but he's 36. Now that he's off the roster, he's basically auditioning for next season, a trade deadline opportunity or an injury replacement opportunity.
  12. bean5302
    I'm advocating Baldelli be fired not for this specific game. It's the season. It's the pattern. It was the pattern last season as well. It's the fact I don't believe Baldelli gets the best from his team or players.
  13. bean5302
    2021 restructure eliminated a league and changed technical terminology, but the slang remains. Class A Advanced became High A (abbreviated A+) Low A became Single A (abbreviated A) (A-) was short season A ball, but not every team had a short season A ball affiliate.
  14. bean5302
    Where do you get the leap to Duran here? The Twins scored 0 runs. Duran could have been perfect, and the Twins still lose 1-0. I don't care about what the pitchers do in a loss if the Twins score 0-2 runs in the same way I don't care what the hitters do in a loss if the Twins pitching staff gives up 7+ runs. Baldelli sets the lineup. Baldelli chooses the platoons. Baldelli chooses to "rest" players all the time. Baldelli chooses the pinch hitters. Firing the manager does a couple things. It can light a fire under the players, and it sends the message the performance won't be tolerated. If the manager doesn't matter, then the manager adds no value to the team and firing him doesn't matter, anyway so why the concern?
  15. bean5302
    GM's always throw the manager under the bus to save themselves first.
  16. bean5302
    What data do you use, and where does it come from? MLB releases detailed data for every pitch of every game. Each morning, my program grabs all of this pitch by pitch data from the previous day’s contests. Within the data, each pitch is assigned 89 attributes, from the pitcher's release position to the pitch’s horizontal acceleration. We care about 5 of those 89 values. Two are the pitch’s horizontal (plate_x) and vertical (plate_z) position as it crosses the plate. Two are measures of the top and the bottom of the strike zone (sz_bot and sz_top), values that reflect the size of the zone once adjusted for batter height and stance. Finally, we use the resulting call of the pitch. In conjunction, these 5 values can tell us whether a pitch was a strike or a ball, and whether or not it was called correctly. https://umpscorecards.com/info/
  17. bean5302
    Players only meeting? No. Ownership meeting with Falvey and Baldelli where Baldelli packs his bags? Yes.
  18. bean5302
    Always nice to make an opposing opener who hasn't been able to throw strikes, and #5 rotation/fringe AAAA guy look like a Cy Young candidate.
  19. bean5302
    Zero active posters is my guess. Don't need an account to read most material, and I'm not sure front office employees would risk their jobs if they posted something which didn't sit well with their management.
  20. bean5302
    Not sure what Duran has done to deserve it? I mean, he does throw hard, not that he's been All-Star level effective in his limited sample size this year. Generally, there are 5-6 relief pitchers per league who make the All Star teams. Taking the list down to relievers with more than 10 innings (Duran's been hurt so he only has 15), here are Duran's ranks of the 136 guys who meet the criteria. Fastball velo = 100.2 #2 ERA = 3.00 #46 FIP = 5.27 #116 xFIP = 3.52 #37 Saves = 10 #9 K/9 = 8.40 #74 Clase, Holmes, Miller, Kimbrel, and half a dozen other relievers have a more deserving case. Honestly, I'm not sure who the Twins will send as their default guy. None of our guys is likely to get voted in. Jeffers is the strongest candidate right now for a vote-in, but he's going to be way behind Salvador Perez, David Fry, Connor Wong, and Adley Rutschman for popularity and/or performance at this point. The Rocco Baldelli Ultra Platoon mode doesn't help our guys accumulate stats which voters look at.
  21. bean5302
    Not sure why you feel they're similar as they have almost nothing in common except they're both left handed, white and tall, LOL
  22. bean5302
    Yep. Jenkins is in "Low A" or just "A" ball since the downsizing of the MiLB system. What does he need to prove in Ft Myers A ball before getting promoted should be the question, and the answer to that is probably that he's far better than the average competition level he's facing. wRC+ 135ish? Something similar to what Luke Keaschall was doing last year. Batting average is important, but more important is the on base percentage and demonstrating game power, meaning he's barreling up balls. Right now, Jenkins is striking out 23% of the time in Ft. Myers vs. pretty low level competition and he's not driving the ball well. Since Jenkins only had 56 plate appearances with the Mighty Mussels last year, he's probably going to get at least another month of every day playing time before he might earn a promotion to the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels, and it'll be a little later than that if his bat doesn't pick up. I do expect Jenkins will probably be with the Kernels before the end of the year.
  23. bean5302
    You threw a little temper tantrum and now you're complaining about attitude? I don't work for the Twins, and it's not my job to beg you to go to the game.
  24. bean5302
    Consistency in the strike zone is what I care about most, and umpire scorecards doesn't really take that into consideration by quantifying estimated ump zone. If the strike zone was expanded 0.5" or 1.0" into a single shadow zone (in/out/top/bottom), does the ball/strike call suddenly jump to nearly 100%? Consistency in predicting what will be called a ball vs. strike, and egregious misses are what I care about as, historically, what pitchers have complained about most is not knowing what will be called a strike when they hit a certain location, and catchers and pitchers routinely try work a "ball" into a "strike" if they can by hitting the same spot repeatedly. It's been part of the game forever. Most of the whining on this site about balls vs. strikes recently is over 2 or 3 calls a game out of the 300 pitches thrown and the plus or minus run value assumes players have no idea what will be called a ball or strike, which is not usually true. For example, Malachi Moore on 6/1 above. Any hitter who is taking pitches just on the right side of the plate in the image is asking for a called strike because the ump had been calling those "balls" strikes consistently throughout the game. Pitchers and hitters historically adjust for that. Also, the amount of fan engagement on umpiring is huge, and for a sport which desperately needs some fan engagement
  25. bean5302
    How cheap do they need to be? Twins tickets are the same price today (adjusted for inflation) as they were at the Metrodome 20 years ago. Seats from the box office are as cheap as $18. With fees on Stubhub for Monday start at $19 (literally cheaper than movie seats), and the prices will drop a lot a couple hrs before game time. Easy to find them at $10/ea with fees right now. Legends Landing right next to Club Level is $51 for unlimited food/drink from the box office. You can bring your own food into the game. You can bring your own bottled water into the game. Wednesday is $1 hot dog night. Twins Pass, which is good for every single game in a month is $69-79 for a month, any month you want. Street parking close to the stadium is under $10. A bus fare from a free parking area near the stadium is like $6 round trip. The North Star runs to select games this year. What I'm saying is going to a Twins game and eating/drinking is cheaper than going to the movies, and you have no idea what you're talking about.
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