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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Miranda 2024 vs. RHP = .293/.338/.512 OPS .851 wRC+ 141 Miranda 2022 vs. RHP = .265/.331/.390 OPS .721 wRC+ 110 Santana 2024 vs. RHP = .218/.317/.370 OPS .687 wRC+ 100 Santana 2023 vs. RHP = .229/.304/.420 OPS .724 wRC+ 94 Santana 2022 vs. RHP = .178/.288/.366 OPS .655 wRC+ 89 Santana 2021 vs. RHP = .184/.309/.327 OPS .636 wRC+ 75 It worked out... but it was a sketchy call that fits with Rocco's spreadsheet macro management skill. Just because Santana can technically stand in the left batters box doesn't mean he can hit well from there.
  2. bean5302
    Willie Mays was absolutely outstanding, and his "prime" lasted for over a decade. A truly legendary player. I'm not sure why the OP had to take such a combative tone right out of the gate since I can't imagine anybody with a brain is going to discount Mays' heroics. If he were playing in modern times with the kind of value he produced back then, he'd have owned 10 MVP Trophies at the end of his career. Literally in the running for greatest baseball player to ever play the game.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, I do think it's pretty safe to say Larnach isn't a reliable every day corner outfielder right now. He's been trending down towards league average again, even if he's having different red flags than he used to. His BB rate is down like 25% vs. career average (which offsets some of the value in the enormous 40% K rate decline), but his exit velocities have tapered off recently, along with the barrel rate, and hard hit rates. Those Statcast metrics all look to be around league average over the past 20 games. Larnach's also slow as molasses in January this year so he's not going to be a great defender. Personally, I think the Twins need an at least plausibly proven center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It's possible Emmanuel Rodriguez can fit the bill by the end of the year, though. He can't get back soon enough from that thumb sprain. Until then, even though it's rough watching him out there sometimes, I guess it's Willi Castro when Buxton needs a rest.
  4. bean5302
    I don't know who the most overrated player is in baseball, but Luis Arraez probably isn't him. Arraez's wRC+ 113 is coming with a career worst ISO at the moment, and it's possible that could be the trend now for him, but his max exit velocity is at a career high so it's not like his raw power has evaporated. Just have to wait and see for a player who has typically been worse in the 2nd half if the trend has swapped. Worth noting is Arraez hasn't been a singles hitter any more than Joe Mauer was a singles hitter. Arraez had 43 extra base hits last year, where he ranked as the 16th highest wRC+ of any qualified hitter in MLB, and 40 the year prior where he ranked 30th in MLB at the plate. In terms of how he was valued around the league, Arraez didn't bring back elite prospects. An org #5, #10, #15 type even with the Marlins covering all but a tiny portion his salary ($10.0MM). Arraez is certainly a player teams want on their roster, but it didn't take a big haul to get him.
  5. bean5302
    Did you not say "pick up the pieces"? That's a phrase generally used for something devastating which has shattered a person's life. If that's not what you intended, I misinterpreted your comment, but you no less misinterpreted mine.
  6. bean5302
    In retrospect (I thought Wallner's production days were just lucky blips) think he started to find his swing fairly quickly in what looked like some blips actually started forming a trend. It's hard to trend power hitters like Wallner because they're prone to stretches of boom/bust. Wallner was probably already much more comfortable by May 1, and his results after that period are within the guidelines of noise. Some of his worst "results" stretch in May that drag down his performance actually corresponded to excellent walk rates with low BABIP.
  7. bean5302
    I don't know about that. Results wise, it was rough, but Cavaco was always a high risk/high reward type of player. I think the front office (like some others) certainly got caught up in the helium around the prospect so they wound up reaching for him. Since Cavaco had so little scouting around him, I suppose he was more of an extreme risk than "high risk" and that made him an poor pick due to the imbalance in the risk/reward in retrospect. Hudson Boyd, Matt Bashore, Shooter Hunt, Henry Sanchez. All 1st round guys who never made it higher than A+ in the past 15 years or so. Personally, I'd rather reach for high risk/reward types than settle for low ceiling guys who are deemed low risk.
  8. bean5302
    You know what's also a pretty common thing? A mysterious injury that goes unreported/underreported being the reason for a player not being very good. Da-Nile isn't just a river in Africa. Joe Ryan was the same pitcher (gave up lots of HRs and had poor results) when he returned from an "injury" last year that didn't reduce his velocity any measurable amount. Brian Dozier's "knee injury" in 2018 was actually the reason his performance declined. Byron Buxton's "knee" was the reason he struggled at the plate last year. Now, it's plausible all those injuries impacted the player's performances, but it's not always the main underlying reason for struggles. Kirilloff hasn't been a valuable player in any year of his career. I don't really care "why" at this point as he's at nearly 900 plate appearances in 4 years. He's shown some flashes, like almost every player, but the bat flashes are offset by the frequent and costly defensive gaffes. The Twins knew about Kirilloff's "sore" back, and an MRI on May 26th apparently didn't reveal anything concerning. Back soreness sucks and it can certainly cause problems with even every day things, out of blue, too. If his back is out of sorts, hopefully a short stint on the IL will help him recover as I certainly wouldn't wish back issues on somebody. That said, the moment he feels better, he can report to St. Paul and be replaced with somebody more deserving of a spot on the MLB roster. I don't think Kirilloff A) is more deserving of time on the MLB roster than Martin/Wallner at this point B) should be rewarded for hiding injuries.
  9. bean5302
    You insinuating his life is in ruins and he's miserable so you should pity him isn't a good take, IMHO. I'd rather hope he's disappointed, but understanding of the situation and he's looking forward to the rest of life with the resources to do whatever he wants.
  10. bean5302
    Honestly, the roster is pretty packed. Even with Wallner hitting so well, it's not going to be an easy call of how to shoehorn him in. There will be similar questions for how to fit Eddie Julien Margot, Santana and Farmer have all been hitting well recently, and none of the short term veterans have options. Kepler, Buxton, and Castro are clearly not going anywhere. Miranda's hitting .280/.320/.473 OPS .793 wRC+ 125 in almost 200 plate appearances. Austin Martin could be the swap call, but the Twins still place him in to cover center field, and he's arguably the prototypical 4th outfielder. I think the Twins are going to give him a relatively long look at this point. The easiest candidate for replacement is Larnach as they're both LHB corner OF/DH guys, but Larnach is also playing solidly. His xwOBA and actual results have waned hard from the time he was called up, but his actual production has lagged behind expected metrics every single year of his career. It does look like Larnach's adjustment has been to be less passive in the attempt to draw walks, and more aggressive at protecting the plate. His swing rate is up quite a bit, but his overall whiff rate is down. The K rate has plummeted (40% lower than career), but the walk rate has dropped a lot, too (25% lower than career). His exit velocities were exceptional when called up, but they've tailed off a lot to mostly average levels recently. Larnach was probably considered outfield depth only coming into the season, but he's on his last option, and the Twins will probably want to give him plenty of room to test out the new approach before making a decision. As of right now, he's .261/.318/.440 OPS .758 wRC+ 116 on the year so I don't think he's going to get demoted for Wallner. Basically, unless there's an injury, I don't think Wallner has a great way to fit into the Twins' lineup this month.
  11. bean5302
    That $4.05MM signing bonus, if it wasn't squandered, should be sufficient to retire right now, even if he decided not to pursue other opportunities at the ripe old age of 23. His legs weren't just chopped off by an ax murderer or something, and I'm positive this wasn't something that came out of the blue and surprised him.
  12. bean5302
    Seemed like a mixed bag on Cavaco at the time of the draft. I was surprised Cavaco got a leash this long. He really has struggled.
  13. bean5302
    Why does it have to be a free agent? Feel free to access MLB leaders on Fangraphs and do a sort by wRC+. There are 77 players with 100+ plate appearances in MLB with a higher wRC+ There are probably at least 10 MiLB players who could be called up in 2025 who will hit just as well or better than Alonso's current mark, too.
  14. bean5302
    I didn't use the start of his AAA campaign because Wallner was ice cold and struggling to find his swing which was the reason he was demoted. The debate over Wallner isn't whether or not he was struggling to start the season. Nobody is making the argument that Wallner didn't have issues to start the season. That's never been the debate. Everybody understood he needed to go down to AAA to fix whatever the issue was, and since Wallner continued to initially struggle, it pretty much proved there was definitely an issue. Now if I can do you the pleasure of steering you back to the actual debate/subject/topic at hand, it's whether or not Matt Wallner has heated up and found his swing. So it's appropriate to use data from current, backwards to come to the conclusion, rather than using data from when we all know he didn't have it and move forward. Intentionally placing bad data into your analysis (from when Wallner was known to be having issues) to further your argument is disingenuous and intentionally manipulative. This would be the same as saying a product has failed because it was bad at one time historically, even though now it's doing great. If you don't understand what Cherry Picking is, let me provide you with the definition. https://www.institutedata.com/us/blog/cherry-picking-in-data-analytics/#:~:text=Cherry-picking in data analytics refers to the selective and,contradict or challenge that conclusion. For MLB purposes, round datasets such as 10-20-30-40 games, beginning or middle days of calendar months, full month date spans, half seasons beginning or ending with the All Star Break, and full seasons, are commonly used. Commonly used data ranges are not typically associated with cherry picking. They're common. Baseball players do not have the ability to pick and choose their performances to match common data sets so using them (like I did) guts the debate over cherry picking. I chose commonly used data sets from the current time going back in time for a reason. 10, 20, 20 (11-30), 20 (21-40), 30, 30 (11-40), 40. Wallner has been significantly above average to on fire over every single one of those round data sets. Using the round datasets was specifically to avoid cherry picking. He's found his swing. If you want to try and debate the very moment he found it... the very day or very second before whatever swing that was, knock yourself out. It might be an interesting tidbit, but it's not relevant to the conversation.
  15. bean5302
    No. Buxton was not prompted to re-open negotiations, and he wouldn't have been prompted to do so since Correa and Boras already had a communications and negotiations pipeline open with the Twins. Correa and Boras are big boys who can handle their own negotiations without Byron Buxton's help, in fact. Had you have read the article I linked, it'd be apparent Buxton did not open negotiations in any way. From the article (guess I'll actually have to quote the text from the article rather than linking it..), you can see Correa already told Buxton he was returning to the Twins before Buxton could even make a call to the front office, and given that, it's hardly a coincidence Boras was already in contact with Falvey before Buxton was reaching out to his friend in the front office, Dustin Morse.
  16. bean5302
    Have I ever suggested Wallner wasn't struggling to begin the season? You have to eventually pick a point. I've given you 10 game, 20 game, 40 game, calendar months (42 games). They all show a hitter who has been highly productive. May 1, Wallner went 0/5 with 3Ks... I didn't choose that sample size as a "cherry pick" by definition. 10 Games = 1.355 wRC+ 237 20 Games = 1.282 wRC+ 215 20 Games (5/16-6/6) = .936, wRC+ 134 30 Games = 1.019, wRC+ 152 30 Games (5/4-6/6) = .847, wRC+ 111 40 Games = .986 wRC+ 144 42 Games (May 1) = .973 wRC+ 140 Your apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology is not more demonstrative of a players trend, and having a handful of games here or there where a player doesn't hit is totally normal for every single player there is in baseball which is why larger sample sizes are preferable overall, but even valuable to show trends.
  17. bean5302
    This is misinformation. Buxton and Correa are friends and kept in contact in the offseason, and after the Mets deal started to fall through, Buxton went poking around on his own, and by the time the wheels were turning in Buxton's "secret mission," Falvey was already having conversations with Boras. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4087172/2023/01/12/carlos-correa-byron-buxton/
  18. bean5302
    There were a myriad of factors which led to Carlos Correa returning to Minnesota; none of which are in play for Alonso coming to the Twins. It's hypothetically possible Alonso could take a lesser deal than expected, and actually, I think he will wind up getting substantially less than the 7 years / $158MM Mets offer. Even then, there will be tons of other options which will be less expensive for a team tight on salary. It's also hypothetically possible Alonso could be notably better than the plethora of other Twins internal options, but there are tons of other options to trade for or sign a similar production talent to Alonso. Pete Alonso is a poor fit in almost every way for the Twins right now. It makes almost no sense to pursue him.
  19. bean5302
    Would have been Willi Castro as the SS regular, not Farmer, IMHO, but probably just would have pushed Farmer to 3B. Tough to say how Farmer would have played with regular plate appearances. He's at .286/.364/.367 OPS .731 wRC+ 116 since May 1, and he's league average from April 20th to now. He just started off super ice cold.
  20. bean5302
    Arraez's defensive limitation isn't his height; it's a weak arm and being a slow runner with poor acceleration. He typically has pretty good instincts and positioning so his actual fielding results (UZR/RF/etc) are better than the athletic numbers (OAA). I expect Arraez's ISO and overall WAR rate will improve before the end of the year. Probably back to about a 2.0-2.5 WAR player, but he's not going to be a ton better than that playing 1B/DH. If Arraez wants to be more like Carew or Gwynn, he's going to need to work on his athleticism.
  21. bean5302
    I think the question is whether or not San Francisco and New York regret not signing Correa to their initially agreed upon terms. I'd say no. They're both probably okay with the contract they offered not working out. The Giants did have some sour grapes after Correa and Boras basically blocked them out from further negotiation once San Francisco balked at the 13 year $350MM guarantee offer upon reviewing the medicals. The Mets took their first shot with a 12 year $315MM bid, but they tried to drop that to 6yrs and $165MM or something like that. A major low-balling for medicals they already knew about. It was pretty dirty. The Twins are on the hook for a 6 year, $200MM guarantee. Massive difference between the initial offers from the Giants and Mets, but I'm quite sure the Mets would be happy having the 6yrs $165MM deal Correa shunned. There's no way to tell what's going to happen in the future with Correa, but the contract looks good right now.
  22. bean5302
    I'll continue to note this every time I see it because people seem to forget or ignore the Mets GM was just suspended for a year for using the Phantom IL. MLB put front offices on notice about the Phantom IL earlier this year with that suspension, and Falvey is running a lame duck front office right now (contracts end this year, and they haven't been renewed). Now if Paddack really is suffering from shoulder fatigue or dead arm, the IL trip is warranted. In Maeda's case last year, his velo looked like this 91.0 -> 89.3 -> 89.0 -> 88.5. Paddack's case over his last few starts: 91.5 -> 95.0 -> 95.2 -> 93.7 When I looked at Paddack's results and charted them for the season, he started off with higher velocity, which gradually trended down, but was up and down from start to start, with his control trending gradually up in a similar way. Basically, Paddack was trying to find more control, which is usually the last thing to return for pitchers coming back from TJ. The recent starts are not indicative of dead arm, they're more indicative of a starter who isn't very good right now.
  23. bean5302
    What about his OPS of 1.000 for his first 10 games in May? Terrible! Awful! Couldn't hit anything! If you cherry pick hard enough, you can bend numbers to you will. For example. You know that hack Carlos Correa? I've been hearing that he's been hot recently, but between 5/27 and 6/8, his slash was only .186/.196/.346 OPS .545 wRC+ 46. Heated up has he? Good hitter is he? Poppycock!!!!
  24. bean5302
    You're breaking SSS into SDSSS, looking for the worst patches you can find, and then concluding he's been hot and cold. No player has a steady production line. Wallner's first 10 games in May (May 1-11) he had an OPS of 1.000. Then over his next 13 games you arbitrarily chose to end just before Wallner got hot, his OPS was only .356, but that's basically the definition of cherry picking.
  25. bean5302
    The Twins have picked up 2 games on Cleveland and 3 games on Kansas City over their past 10 games, and we're 3 games up on the Boston Red Sox who just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees. Toronto, and Washington are 0.5 games back from .500 as well. We're on pace for a 90 win season atm. Will the lamenting end about how the Twins should be sellers, and about how the Twins can't beat good teams now having split or won series' against Seattle (division leader), Milwaukee (division leader), Kansas City (wildcard), Boston (.514), and 2 other teams who are under .500 only because of the Twins?
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