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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    2022, 2023, 2024, Career xFIP FTO = 4.27, 4.31, 4.43, 4.32 STO = 3.05, 3.40, 4.62, 3.57 TTO = 6.69, 5.32, 2.76, 5.12 The problem with him being "terrible" in the TTO is guys allowed to pitch TTO are given the quick hook when things don't go well. Rather than being given the opportunity to pitch out of a jam or pitch after allowing a home run, the manager calls in a reliever. Those runs allowed by the starter (or the reliever who allows inherited runners to score) get hung on the pitcher's TTO ERA and FIP, without the ability to offset them by continuing to pitch under the assumption the pitcher is no longer going to be effective moving forward. This artificially inflates ERA/FIP and perpetuates the TTO myth. In general, the difference between FTO -> STO is worse than STO -> TTO when I've looked at MLB as a whole for larger sample sizes, and the jump from STO -> TTO has sometimes been negligible in xFIP. The question, though, is not whether or not the pitcher is worse than they started the game, it's whether or not the starter is worse than a reliever you'd replace them with or how the replacement impacts the bullpen's readiness.
  2. bean5302
    Does it really matter? Correa is a very good baseball player. He's the #9 SS in baseball during the time he's been with the Twins, including last year's disappointing campaign from him. IMHO, he's a reliable All Star caliber player who can be expected to produce about 4-5 WAR. He's not the greatest shortstop in baseball, and he doesn't need to be the greatest because he's not paid like the greatest. While Royce Lewis has become the new face of the franchise, Carlos Correa is the veteran leader and cornerstone at this point, and there is a lot of value in that. I think he's almost universally liked. His leadership and instincts were on full display last year in the playoffs, and his work was absolutely key in the Twins advancing. If we were to calculate Correa's value based on different methods. Traditional $8MM / WAR, keeping in mind this cost is decreasing right now as teams are paying less per free agent WAR than they used to, but I don't expect the trend to continue as MLB revenues/payrolls are inflating so I'll hold it right at $8MM per WAR, with 4.00% inflation assumed for MLB salaries. For this year, I assumed he'd play in 137 games (88 of 95 remaining games) and multiplied 137 / 49 by his current fWAR. Correa: 2022 a27, 4.6 fWAR = $37MM vs. $35MM paid. 2023 a28, 1.9 fWAR = $15MM vs. $36MM paid. 2024 a29, 5.3 fWAR = $42.4MM vs. $36MM paid. 2025 a30, 4.5 fWAR = $36MM vs. $36MM ($33MM w/inflation) paid. 2026 a31, 4.0 fWAR = $32MM vs. $31.5MM ($28MM w/inflation) paid. 2027 a32, 3.5 fWAR = $28MM vs. $30.5MM ($26MM w/inflation) paid. 2028 a33, 3.0 fWAR = $24MM vs. $30.0MM ($25MM w/inflation) paid. ----------------------------------------------------------------- guarantee ends, moves to 3B? 2029 a34, 2.0 fWAR = $16MM vs. $25MM ($20MM w/inflation) paid. 2030 a35, 2.0 fWAR = $16MM vs. $20MM ($15MM w/inflation) paid. 2031 a36, 1.5 fWAR = $12MM vs. $15MM ($11MM w/inflation) paid. 2032 a 37, 0.5 fWAR = $4MM vs. $10MM ($7MM w/inflation) paid. Basically, Correa's contract is pretty reasonable. Even considering his performance on the field should be expected to decline as he ages and moves off SS, his salary is probably pretty commiserate with reasonable production expectations, and if he does wind up suffering a significant injury or playing time, beyond age 33, the Twins aren't on the hook for anything.
  3. bean5302
    Based on Varland's post game comments, he sounded very happy to get 5 good innings pitched rather than like a pitcher who had any confidence it would continue. I don't care about TTO. It's a myth reinforced by a methodology. xFIP rises more on STO than TTO. That said, if the desire was to give some rest to the pitching staff like Baldelli talked about, you absolutely send Varland out there for the 6th inning so your guys can actually get rest. I'm going to go even further on this. Varland was at 65 pitches. Why do players get better against a pitcher TTO? The argument is players see "x" number of pitches and they figure a guy out. Except Varland had only thrown 65 pitches so the opposing batters hadn't seen that many pitches to figure Varland out as thoroughly, right? TTO is such a garbage theory.
  4. bean5302
    Seriously, if you were one of the fans who believed Lopez was an acceptable ace, yes, it's time to be very concerned. He's not an ace. He's not even a great #2. Throughout his career, he's typically run an ERA significantly higher than his FIP, like our old friend Ricky Nolasco. When you see a pattern year in and out, there's a good chance the results are not luck oriented, they're part of a player's profile. Lopez has struggled quite a bit with the gopher ball this year, but even if he corrects it, and pitches lights out to get back to where you'd expect he'd be at a normal luck level, he'll run a 3.85ish ERA this year. He's a solid playoff rotation arm, but he can't be counted on to lead a playoff caliber rotation.
  5. bean5302
    Fair enough. Re-reading that seemed awfully harsh on my part. It's definitely reduced his value already, though. If Jenkins doesn't return to form before the All Star break, it will have a very measurable impact. Probably 30-40% of his trade value.
  6. bean5302
    Not interested in any of the Marlins players. If the Twins need something, it's a decidedly front end arm, not a mid rotation guy or a reclamation project.
  7. bean5302
    Players play with injuries that require offseason surgery to address all the time. Players play hurt all the time. Aches and pains are normal. Kirk Gibson won Game 1 of the 1988 World Series when he couldn't even jog. When Kirilloff was in too much pain to play, the Twins didn't say, hey just use one arm, dude, you don't need a trip to the IL. They put Kirilloff on the IL. The Twins didn't ask Kirilloff to get back out there directly from the surgical recovery room, either. The manipulation of context in your post is total BS.
  8. bean5302
    Yup. Kirilloff (LHB) and Mazara (LHB) line up pretty well. Career numbers: .256/.315/.414 OPS .719, .158 ISO, 7.3% BB, 22.0% K, wOBA .313 .249/.311/.414 OPS .715, .165 ISO, 7.0% BB, 24.1% K, wOBA .313 One is Kirilloff, one is Mazara. Neither is/was a good outfielder, but Mazara was at least close to league average where Kirilloff has been a black hole, though he could probably get better with consistent playing time. Combining the non-terrible defense with his added playing time, that's why Mazara owns a career 2.1 fWAR and Kirilloff owns a career 0.2.
  9. bean5302
    Kirilloff hasn't played injured. He's played "hurt" like every other baseball player has done, and it's no coincidence he performed essentially the same regardless of the type of injury; whether it's a wrist or a shoulder or whatever else. Basically a little below league average at the plate. The sample size on Kirilloff is pretty big at this point, and we have seen sustained production from him, just not sustained, unsustainable production. Last year was an outlier where Kirilloff enjoyed a BABIP 35 points higher than his career efforts. Kirilloff has mediocre power. He doesn't take walks. He's basically Nomar Mazara, who was out of baseball at age 27. The difference is the Twins didn't put it together as quickly as the Rangers did so the Twins are the White Sox in this scenario.
  10. bean5302
    Jenkins isn't hitting particularly well in Single A this year, though the sample size is small. Might want to see him play well for 100+ plate appearances before thinking about High A, let alone AA...
  11. bean5302
    Varland's velocity didn't just happen as he's been throwing hard since 2022, and he does not throw 99 in the rotation. His fastest pitch thrown this year was 98.3mph, and in only 2 games this year has he hit 97.2+mph on a single pitch while averaging 96mph. Btw, radar guns aren't perfect so when you see a few outliers all in a single game, the radar gun might just be hot or cool. Varland's status as a legitimate starting rotation prospect is a little dubious. He was recalled largely because he's a starter on the 40 man, and there isn't really anybody else at AAA who's pushing the Twins to add. His realistic ceiling if everything works out right is probably a #4 rotation arm because his pitches don't have good movement and he doesn't have a single "plus" offering in his arsenal while in the rotation. His pitches need to get better in terms of movement, not faster to succeed as a starter. He was a poor starter in 2023. He's been a poor starter in 2024, and he finds himself well behind SWR in the rotation mix at this point with a body of work consisting of 19 MLB starts over 3 years with a 5.56 ERA. as @Mike Sixel points out, that's starting to get to a significant sample size while his results have been consistently getting worse.
  12. bean5302
    The "untouchables" is an interesting concept. It means the team is so dependent on those players, they cannot be traded to improve the current team. To me, Jenkins is untouchable because his value has utterly tanked due to injury and performance in Single A ball this year. His ETA is 2026 at the earliest, but probably no significant play time until 2027. Brooks Lee, I'd be happy to trade if another team believed in him to the point he brought back part of a blockbuster deal, but people around here dramatically overvalue him. SSSS, but he certainly hasn't started hot in AAA, which is a level he couldn't hold his own at last year, either. He's a fringy shortstop with limited athleticism, without a ton of game power, who's proven so far to be weak as a RHB. Teams aren't falling over themselves to get a player like that in general. His draft position, and quick rise in the minors facilitated his spike in value... the same way Austin Martin rose up ranks right away. I'd really hate for the Twins to deal Rodriguez because there's a screaming loud, long term need for an outfielder who projects as a starter who can cover CF. Further down the list, there aren't any guys who could front line a truly high value acquisition.
  13. bean5302
    I don't see how pipelines would include veteran players. Ryan and Ober are both arb eligible next year so their team control is already starting to tick down. Festa's scuffling in AAA again this year with a 4.45 ERA over his past 7 starts with 3 of those not even getting through 5 frames. That doesn't project well. Zebby Matthews could be something with Andrew Morris climbing the ladder into a mid ranged prospect. It's been 7.5 years for Falvey to show his MiLB development team can produce starters, and Ober is the sole success story with SWR potentially paying off now, too. Falvey's on a very hot seat this year. He'll either see the Twins push into the playoffs or he'll be finding a new job.
  14. bean5302
    Farmer is getting highly sporadic plate appearances, which is the worst thing for a guy trying to stabilize confidence or play at the plate. Also consider his xwOBA of .281 (still not great) is significantly higher than actual of .248. Farmer's only had 39 plate appearances in the past 35 days and is averaging less than 2 plate appearances per game played using the Baldelli Ultra Platoon method.
  15. bean5302
    I'm not sure Lewis wouldn't move to SS if Correa was hurt, but I agree, Lee is too far down the depth chart to get a call up with a single injury.
  16. bean5302
    That's basically what this article is speculating. Pitch framing has gone away because Jeffers isn't trying to frame pitches anymore, he's setting pitchers up with an initial reference point of a full on meatball, and the pitcher is able to adjust based on that. This is possible because of the PitchCom system where the following is relayed to the pitcher after the last pitch "pitch".... "location" i.e. "slider... low and away" so the catcher doesn't need to position their glove where they'd like the actual pitch. Instead, by placing their glove at a center-center reference point, the pitcher can work off that reference to throw more strikes. It doesn't seem viable to me. I'm not a pitcher, but regardless of the sport, you keep your eyes fixated on a location as much as possible to maximize your chances of hitting that location. That makes me believe it's not likely this is actually happening a lot with a pitcher if that pitcher who is showing good control during the game. Pitchers are definitely going to miss their spots more with the speculated method. They'll throw more strikes, and more meatballs that'll end up in the seats and I'd much rather have a ball or two called than a home run allowed. Also, Vazquez has high framing numbers while Jeffers is poor in the category so lack of consistency with the catchers means this isn't likely a "Twins approach." Also, pitch framing often bounces around from year to year so I don't think it's a reliable or particularly valuable metric.
  17. bean5302
    I'm hoping he just jammed it, and the team had seen enough of him trying to play through it without a few days off. If he's only out for a week or two, it'll still give him plenty of time to get close to 100 plate appearances in at AAA before the deadline so the Twins could make a decision on whether or not he's ready for the big show. The question about Rodriguez is kinda the same as it was. Nobody is going to walk 25% of the time at MLB, so the 10% of the walks he's getting right now... will those become K's or batted balls? If they all become K's, he's probably not a viable MLB player. If they all become batted balls, he could be excellent, but there's probably a mix in there somewhere. Just my thoughts on it!
  18. bean5302
    Personally, I'd probably promote Emmanuel Rodriguez today to AAA and have him play CF while DaShawn Keirsey is on the IL. Evaluate Rodriguez's performance at AAA for the next month and a half and decide whether he's potentially ready for the big show.
  19. bean5302
    Luis Robert's probably worth AFV of $50MM with a salary of $20MM through 2025 at the trade deadline, including the Twins eating $5MM of current year salary. So that nets out at a Surplus value of $30MM. The package you proposed doesn't get it done considering Gonzalez's apparently serious back strain. He hasn't played in a month and a half and isn't close to returning. I think Emmanuel Rodriguez + Marco Raya is probably the ask for Robert, provided he's back and hitting well, TBH. Before you balk at the price tag, consider the White Sox don't have to move him right now as they have 3.5yrs of team control over him, and there will be other teams in the mix.
  20. bean5302
    I think Sano will find a spot, but I also think there's probably a lot of bad blood between Sano and the Twins. Specifically, the Twins towards Sano.
  21. bean5302
    The budget has been spent? News to me that Joe Pohlad came out and announced the Twins have no budget for the deadline. I'd speculate the Twins would be willing to take on another $5-10MM of salary if they're in a good position at the deadline, especially after cutting payroll back as much as they did despite turning a profit last year.
  22. bean5302
    Just like the new logo in general, lol. The good 'ol North Star, the one used specifically by maritime navigators... "Mariners" At least the City Connect jerseys feature MN and not just "M" Can't say I care for the "ripple" effect as it just looks like stripes which aren't even consistent in their direction. Maybe making it look like it was a single piece of fabric rather than scraps sewn together was too expensive?
  23. bean5302
    The jersey looks cheap and piecemeal, the way the "ripple" changes directions at the jersey sewing points. Something I would have done with a sewing machine as a kid in Home Economics. There are some city connect jersey's I really like, but a lot I don't. This is definitely a "don't like."
  24. bean5302
    You're right. An SP1 wouldn't make the Twins substantially worse as a team so they'd still be better than the extreme luck fueled Guardians. As far as on par with the best teams in baseball, probably not, but the 1987 Twins had the 9th best record in baseball. They were an average team with only a couple real good pieces. You have to make the playoffs before you can win playoff games. Now, what would an SP1 cost? That depends on team control, contact AAV and how they're pitching up to the deadline point. If Blake Snell were to rebound and have a great 5-8 start history before the deadline while being healthy, what would he cost? Probably not a ton. He'd be viewed as a potential rental with a big negative in the player option. If the Diamondbacks are out of it, Zac Gallen would require a lot more prospect capital. He's cheap this year and he'll be under market value next year. Probably 1 top 3 prospect, plus another 1 of our top 5s, plus 2 more of our top 10s. But, Falvey will do this. His job is on the line as his contract is over this year, and Joe Pohlad made it clear the team's expectations have shifted from making the playoffs/winning the division to advancing in the playoffs.
  25. bean5302
    You're looking at Brooks Lee's rehab assignment Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels stats... He's actually .214/.313/.214 OPS .527 wRC+ 48 in AAA. Wallner's coming around, though, and it's just a matter of time before Kirilloff wears out his welcome on the 26 man. Not a hard swap to make.
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