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Wallner will be fine in RF. He'll get better if the Twins actually give him regular time in the position rather than moving him all over the place. Wallner 2024 RF = +0 DRS, -2.3 UZR/150, -1 OAA Kepler 2024 RF = +0 DRS, -0.7 UZR/150, +4 OAA Kepler's been declining a lot over the past few years as his speed has evaporated. I don't think there will be a big difference between the two in fielding next year, wherever Kepler ends up.

The White Sox are the dramatically more attractive team to purchase. It's not even close. Bigger market currently, expiring stadium deal, enormous room for revenue growth. Prospective baseball franchise owners are looking for a few things. 1) Prestige in general. Any MLB team grants this. 2) Financial growth potential for the investment. 3) Flexibility to explore options for returns on investment. Things prospective baseball franchise owners do not care about. 1) Farm system rankings 2) Front office construction 3) How good the team is or is expected to be next year. 4) Roster, apart from long term contracts which are major liabilities The White Sox are going to get a new stadium soon, and the stadium does not have to be in Chicago. Wherever that stadium goes, billions and billions of dollars will be made in the surrounding real estate. A prospective owner looking to bring MLB to their city wouldn't even be interested in the Twins, who aren't going anywhere for 15 years. There's also much more potential revenue in Chicago than Minneapolis. It's a dramatically larger and more prestigious market in every conceivable way. White Sox = a franchise with bottomed out value, with dramatically more revenue growth potential, with dramatically more profit potential, with a more prestigious market, with a new stadium almost certainly coming, which can also be potentially moved to a new market in the near future. This article is written as if a TwinsDaily reader/contributor or general baseball fan is shopping to buy an MLB franchise with the hopes of winning a World Series in 2025 or 2026.

A lot of the comment section seems to be trying to come up with proof the RSN impact caused all this... The Pohlad family was well informed of the RSN situation. It's inconceivable they weren't because MLB was aware, and other owners were aware which led to changes in the last CBA. There are two parts to the RSN situation. The first is direct RSN revenue to the Twins and the second part is revenue sharing. With the increase in revenue sharing in the CBA, the league mitigated some of the RSN collapse impact on teams. The Twins' RSN deal prior to last year was $54MM, which was higher than analysts thought, and Bally Sports renegotiated deals with existing contracts at about 85%. It's inconceivable the Twins hadn't been negotiating with Bally prior to the end of the season so they must have been aware of a "ball park" RSN revenue stream for 2024. It may have been lower than the 85% which Bally renegotiated with existing contracts, but 85% would be $46MM. $8MM of revenue shift for a team analysts at Forbes thought made $19MM in net operating income last year is a drop in the bucket. I just don't see this as a reason to cut payroll in 2024. Even if the RSN deal dropped to, say, $36MM (a drop of 1/3rd), the Twins would still likely at least break even returning the exact same payroll as 2023. The Twins could have dropped payroll in 2025+ had the future RSN issue turned into a mess, and the Pohlad's have long said they look at financials on a year to year basis to determine payroll. I also don't think anybody thought Diamond Sports was so poorly managed or they'd do something so destructive to their brand as play a hard core game of chicken with Comca$t; a game which was a predictable epic loss for Diamond. Quotes from the commissioners office were brutal on assessing Diamond's management. There is absolutely no way the Twins agree to a deal with Bally's knowing a full half season of baseball would be unavailable to people watching at home. This doesn't seem like it probably impacted 2024's opening year budget. I don't think a person can pinpoint a singular component to the change in strategy. Knee jerk reactions from ownership, RSN revenue streams, failures to increase attendance in recent years, concerns about the performance of Falvey's teams despite record setting payrolls, the performance of other teams in the playoffs with dramatically lower payrolls, potential family liquidity, and a whole host of other factors probably contributed to the decision to cut payroll.

Brooks Lee has always been scouted as a poor athlete. Even when the Twins drafted him. He looks polished in his instincts, movement, and balance which could serve him well enough to hold down 2B or 3B full time. Lee is a lot like the now 34 year old Kyle Farmer from a physical skills standpoint. Farmer managed to even handle SS because he was incredibly reliable at the position in 2021. If Lee was almost perfect in the field, he could handle SS.

The quad strain would have taken 6 months to completely heal and for all Lewis' strength to come back. The hip adductor was related to the quad strain, and Lewis was advised of his elevated risk, but the Twins and Lewis didn't want him to miss the whole season from the quad injury. It was healed up to the point that Lewis could play, but the Twins did put restrictions on him to reduce the risk of injury. The quad strain is linked to the 2nd torn ACL... which was possibly linked to coming back too soon from the previous torn ACL. Basically, everything kind of tracks back to the first torn ACL and Lewis pushing hard to get himself back on the field. Hopefully (not holding my breath) Lewis is truly 100% for next year.

The article hits the nail on the head. The Pohlad's essentially turned the roster into a long term only investment, then immediately performed a 180* turn and tried to cash out. It's an absolutely catastrophic decision from an investment/business perspective. The irony with "have a business to run" statements from the Pohlad family is awfully thick. Changing illiquid investment strategy, and not holding failed sales/marketing channels and leadership accountable (Dave St. Peter). Those are not how successful businesses are run.

Brooks Lee's arm is significantly weaker than Lewis'. I actually don't see much defensive upside with Lee, who proved the scouting reports correct with as a very slow runner so I'd put Lewis ahead of Lee at every single position on the field from a potential standpoint, though Lee looked smooth out there... until he didn't.

Jose Miranda is the clear 1B for next year if the Twins don't do some roster shuffling. Miranda will either be at 1B or DH. As far as 1B being studs at the plate, there were really about 4 of those in MLB. Jose Miranda (wRC+ 115) and Carlos Santana (wRC+ 116) were both within 10% of the #5 ranked hitter with 300+ PA at 1B, Nathaniel Lowe (wRC+ 123). I don't see why having a good hitting 1B instead of an MVP caliber hitter at 1B is a "problem." We have a "problem" at 2B since neither Lee nor Julien were MLB caliber hitters last year, and Castro likely isn't returning.

Lewis had 1 error over his last 27 games, and the leg issues were with him all year from the severe quad strain. The slump was probably mental, IMHO. Good time to repost positional adjustment values. C = +12.5 SS = +7.5 CF = +2.5 2B = +2.5 3B = +2.5 RF = -7.5 LF = -7.5 1B = -12.5 DH = -17.5 Moving Royce Lewis from 3B to 1B erases 15 runs of value. Lewis will still be 25 years old for opening day next year. Across his career, Royce has just about 1 full season at 3B and he's graded out average there.

Shoulder sprains which don't get better and wipe out a whole season aren't a good sign. Radio silence on the results from his late June MRI or any rehab work he did after that point, either. Wouldn't surprise me to hear he had to undergo unreported shoulder surgery. All in all, as of right now, 5% odds feels a little optimistic as a gut instinct.

Martin is a 2B, if he's going to be a starter. He's going to be defensively limited with a mediocre arm and fringe range in CF, his arm isn't ideal for SS/3B (think Polanco). His bat doesn't play in a corner OF/1B/DH role.

Prielipp has not been viewed as a relief pitcher by the organization yet as he was allowed to go as deep into games (50 pitches) as Marco Raya was for most of his season. A starting pitcher's value is 3-4x as high as an effective reliever. Aside from that, Prielipp was in A+ ball this year. I don't think it's a stretch to believe Prielipp will start next year in AA, but it feels absurd to suggest he could be part of the Twins' bullpen before mid-year under ideal circumstances. Even if the Twins did decide to make a radical shift on a top prospect to move him to the 'pen mid year, it would definitely push Prielipp back a year in regard to him becoming a potential starter. Not that it's really necessary since Prielipp hasn't won't need to be added to the 40 man roster until later this year. Based on how the Twins handled Marco Raya, I think it's a lot more likely Prielipp starts off at 3.0 innings (50 pitches) and stretches to 5.0 innings (80 pitches) by the end of the year, spending virtually the entire year in AA. BP1 Duran BP2 Jax BP3 Sands BP4 Stewart BP5 Topa BP6 Alcala BP7 Moran BP8 Varland Tonkin, Henriquez, Funderburk, Blewett, etc for potentially the back end of the 'pen. There are plenty of options to fill things out. I'm not sure the Twins' bullpen needs much help. The fans' memory of the bullpen being awful really seems to swing back to a few late season desperation games when the offense honestly failed to score sufficient runs and the bullpen needed to put up a ton of zeroes to win the game. The 4 of the 7 relievers with 20+ appearances who are likely to return went 22-23 (Jax, Duran, Funderburk, Alcala) 16-17 9 blown saves (6 by Jax) 34 saves (79%) or 89% excluding Jax's 6 BS vs. 10 SV 51 holds 5.9 fWAR (5th in MLB)

No, he's really bad. It's just the Twins as a ballclub as a whole are truly horribly, embarrassingly slow. here are the breakouts of 10+ attempts by position and the MIN which is what I would consider the point at which a players speed is a significant fielding liability for the position. C = 79 players, 23.1-28.9ft/sec median = 25.9ft/sec, min = 25.0 ft/sec 1B = 56 players, 24.0-28.6ft/sec median = 26.4ft/sec, min = 26.0 ft/sec 2B = 64 players, 24.7-29.9ft/sec median = 27.7ft/sec, min = 27.0 ft/sec 3B = 81 players, 25.1-29.3ft/sec median = 27.3ft/sec, min = 26.5 ft/sec SS = 58 players, 25.1-30.5ft/sec median = 28.0ft/sec, min = 27.5 ft/sec LF = 61 players, 26.1-30.0ft/sec median = 28.0ft/sec, min = 26.5 ft/sec CF = 57 players, 26.5-30.1ft/sec median = 28.6ft/sec, min = 28.0 ft/sec RF = 67 players, 26.0-29.8fts/ec median = 27.8ft/sec, min = 26.5ft/sec

Castro played a ton of positions at Baldelli's request, and that's worth something in terms of the Twins strategy. Since Willi ended up the season pretty much exactly the same as last season wRC+ 108-109, I think he's done great at cementing himself as a solid MLB bat at this point. Great news for him as he approaches free agency. Jax and Sands had great years in general. I know a few people want Jax to be given a shot at the rotation, but I'm not sure being absolutely dominant helps or hurts his case. It'll be interesting to see how those guys move forward. Santana's "unlikely plays" illustrate why DRS isn't stable as a metric. Overall, he contributed to less real outs than his peers at 1B, but the bonus multipliers can warp results. I didn't like the way Santana played 1B this year watching the games. I like that info about Woods-Richardson. TBH, I hadn't really dived into his results based on his pitches and locations much. Hopefully, the coaches can work with him again this spring to help him optimize his limited stuff. Also, here's hoping the trainers can get him into better shape. Sim hitting a wall and running out of gas as in August at 112 innings as a 23 year old with 7 years of professional experience is a huge red flag about his potential future in the rotation to me.

If people want to see more values, you can get a subscription to the site for all the values any time you want them. Or, you can search for your desired player in recent trade proposals https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades In regard to Matt Wallner specifically, he's not in any trades since July. His value fluctuated radically throughout the year (for obvious reasons) January 9th = +23.1 June 15th = +7.5 June 18th = +8.7 July 23rd = +17.6 I'd be willing to bet it's far higher right now. Considering the Twins have 5 more years of control over Wallner and he still has an option, a full teardown and rebuild strategy wouldn't generally include guys like him.

Wallner isn't arb eligible yet. I didn't include the whole 40+ man haha

Career for Castro 2B - UZR/150 = -4.5, OAA +4, 3B - UZR/150 = +5.3, OAA +2 SS - UZR/150 = -6.5, OAA -3 CF - UZR/150 = -12.1, OAA -4 2024 for Castro 2B - UZR/150 =-0.8, OAA = 0 3B - UZR/150 = +5.2, OAA +1 SS - UZR/150 = -9.5, OAA +3 CF - UZR/150 = -5.9, OAA -3 Castro's only position where I'd consider him a plus at all is 3B. He's probably average at 2B and a big liability at SS/CF. He certainly failed the eye test at SS and CF for me this past year as well.

Some recent (post end of season) trade proposal valuations for Twins players hitting arbitration or under contract. Baseballtradevalues helps to remove personal biases regarding players and how valuable the rest of the league may or may not see them. Some trades wind up being pretty lopsided by their website, though, so it's hardly perfect. Griffin Jax +40.9 Pablo Lopez +37.4 Jhoan Duran +31.0 Royce Lewis +26.3 Bailey Ober +22.9 Carlos Correa +22.8 Ryan Jeffers +13.1 Byron Buxton +0.4 Manny Margot -0.4 Christian Vazquez -7.8 Joe Ryan? Chris Paddack? Jorge Alcala? Brock Stewart? Michael Tonkin? Justin Topa? Randy Dobnak? Willi Castro? Trevor Larnach? Alex Kirilloff? Kyle Farmer?

The Pohlad Family may or may not find a buyer for the Twins. Completely blowing the product up in the hopes that's what a new owner might want is seemingly a lot of risk for an ownership group known far and wide as risk averse. Keeping things relatively status quo is nice and conservative given the lack of identity or obvious direction for the club's roster. According to some sort of inside source, Dan Hayes reported the Twins' front office doesn't expect any reduction in payroll. Any money saved by trading a player or players would result in an expected reinvestment into the roster. Barring a new leak suggesting the opposite, the conspiracy theory stuff doesn't interest me much.

The Tigers were awful for 10 years. I don't think that's a good blueprint for anybody.

Willi Castro has been brutal in CF throughout his entire career, but average-ish at 2B, grading out quite well at 3B. Martin was certainly awful in CF last year, though he was one of the best 2B in the International league in 2023. Martin's arm probably prevents him from being a good option at 3B. Honestly, I don't expect much difference between the two defensively. Castro's bat is good enough to be a starter, though. Martin's is not.

Polanco is bad defensively, he had an awful year at the plate, and he's constantly hurt. His K rate has skyrocketed over the past few years as his contact and barrel rates have cratered, and he's now in his 30s. I'd give him a MiLB contract with an invite, sure, but anything beyond that just seems foolish. Inviting the Tim Anderson scenario.

I cannot possibly fathom why Castro would take that deal. The Twins might be able to lock him up at $5MM next year, and $12MM for the two years after that... maybe. He's projected to make $6.2MM in arbitration this year and he becomes a free agent in 2026 at age 29. Spotrac has his Market Value at 3yrs / $30MM. No way you can buy out a year or two of a29, a30 free agency for less than his current arbitration value. The Twins will likely have to clear salary (Lopez or Ober or Ryan) in order to retain Castro. I do think they'll probably sign/trade Castro, but I thought they'd sign/trade Farmer last year. Teams across MLB will know Falvey will almost have to trade Castro because of payroll concerns, and they'll use that leverage. Falvey doesn't seem capable of applying reasonable value to his players in the trade market, and it's a definite concern of mine. If he overplays Castro the way I suspect he's overplayed guys like Kepler and Polanco in the past, the return might be pretty light as the 2025 season approaches and the payroll gets desperate.

I think the Tigers and Royals will likely finish 1-2 in the AL Central next year barring some dramatic roster decisions by the Twins. Both Detroit and Kansas City have elite arms at the front of their rotation, not just a #2/3 starter masquerading as elite with a random advanced metric or two backing them up. C - Jake Rogers 1B - Spencer Torkelson 2B - Colt Keith 3B - Matt Vierling SS - ? LF - Riley Greene CF - Parker Meadows RF - Kerry Carpenter DH - ? BC - Dillon Dingler UI - Jace Jung UI - Javier Baez UO - Wenceel Perez SP1 - Tarik Skubal SP2 - Brant Hurter SP3 - Reese Olson SP4 - ? SP5 - Casey Mize The Tigers' bullpen is too much of a mess to break out. I'd suspect Detroit will be in the running for a a couple good RP's this offseason to lead the bullpen since they have plenty of solid depth.

Except Farmer wasn't viewed as a backup utility infielder. He was viewed as a starting platoon strategy utility infielder. Farmer played in more games than Byron Buxton or Max Kepler last year, and nearly as many as Jose Miranda, Ryan Jeffers or Trevor Larnach. Helman might get his chance as an age 29 MiLB roster filler. As a guy the Twins have left off the 40 man for the last 3 years who was ignored by the rest of the league during the Rule 5, Helman is probably only going to get one shot if he does get it.