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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Pablo has never been "right" by the definition fans and the writers on this site talk about. 2021 is the only time he flashed ace caliber results in his career. He's a back end #2 guy if he's "right" which he's been far away from this year.
  2. bean5302
    No joke. This whole "The Twins better be far and away the best team in all of MLB otherwise they're trash, and they have no hope!" trope is seriously BS. The Twins are a good team. An ace makes them a great team in the playoffs. In typical playoff fashion, the favorite wins the series 50-60% of the time. The Twins fans are just used to 1 and out. 1 and out. 3 and out. 1 and out. That's not how the rest of MLB works and why the Twins set an all time record among major sports (not just MLB) for consecutive playoff losses. What changed that? An elite top rotation.
  3. bean5302
    I'm not interested in back end rotation arms. Only playoff caliber arms, and specifically, pitchers would would be the best starter on the team. Bassitt maybe qualifies, but that's awfully dicey. Joe Ryan is defying all odds in performing like a legit, front end #2 this year, but he's not an ace. I mean, good on him, but I don't trust him given his 2nd half swoon every year so far. For people talking about Bassitt being a #4 2020-2024 Bassitt - 3.31 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP Lopez - 3.82 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP Berrios - 4.03 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP Bassitt is basically as good as Pablo Lopez, though I don't like his bump in BB rate this year. Back end #2 type of pitcher. He's playoff caliber. Berrios is a #3 at this point, and there's reason to suspect he's got some luck on his side with a .252 BABIP this year which, in concert with him being victimized by the deep ball (16.0% HR/FB) is leading to a ghastly 5.07 FIP. The article says Falvey has never paid $20MM for a pitcher. Well, Lopez is making $22MM starting next year, and it seems like a lot of fans have a genuine obsession with making sure every comment, every article, every blog post making sure they take a dig at ownership as being cheap. The Twins' payroll has been $150MM+ the past two years, they're at $131MM right now. They got their TV deal in place, and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets for a high probability of another playoff run. They made money last year thanks to advancing in the playoffs. Given the same scenario this year, I expect them to invest. Btw, a $40MM pitcher doesn't cost $40MM at the trade deadline because there's only 1/3 of the season left. $40MM = $13MM $30MM = $10MM $20MM = $7MM $10MM = $3MM None of that is likely out of payroll reach for the Twins.
  4. bean5302
    anybody who predicted Woods-Richardson would be a successful starter this year would have been laughed at. He's a totally different pitcher than last year. He's added almost 5mph to his pitches out of the blue. That's nearly unheard of. I think everybody can agree Desclafani wasn't the guy we were looking for. Miranda not making opening day was a real disappointment to me. I felt like he deserved the roster spot, and I'm glad to see him showing his skills to all the doubters and haters out there. He had a ton of them after last year.
  5. bean5302
    Kirilloff is a coaches son. Should we stick him at SS if Correa needs some time on the IL? So I think the whole "coaches son" thing is probably a little overblown. That said, Lee is super smooth and polished out there so I could understand why people would want to see him playing every day at a set position. He looks like he's a veteran fielder while Lewis looks like he's trying to force plays to be a hero too frequently. Pushing Royce into a utility role or another position? I just don't think that's realistic atm.
  6. bean5302
    That'd be a fair step forward in XBH compared to his career averages, and a big step forward in terms of plate appearances as well. Other than his freak 3 triples last year, his line is nearly identical. Projecting 400 AB's (probably 450 PA). 2021 = 18 doubles, 11 HR 2022 = 33 doubles, 13 HR 2023 = 15 doubles, 18 HR 2024 = 15 doubles, 18 HR His launch angle is 13* this year, and 3 of his 4 seasons have a 13* launch angle. He's typically a flat power stroke, line drive kinda power guy so I wouldn't expect him to ever hit a ton of dingers playing for the Twins at Target Field.
  7. bean5302
    Feel free to add your data... @wabene You too.
  8. bean5302
    Jose Miranda just continues to tear it up, and here's the kicker. Miranda's production was greater than his expected metrics early on, but just like Royce Lewis last year, that hasn't continued to be the case. As the year has worn on, Miranda's results are much more in line with actual production. The numbers he's putting up right now, and as of recent, have not been smoke and mirrors. Since 6/1 Exit Velocity 91.6mph (87%) Barrel Rate 10.4% (73%) Hard Hit Rate 45.8% (77%) Over his last 100 PA, he owns a .424 xwOBA (.457 actual). It's fun to watch!
  9. bean5302
    short lived, LOL
  10. bean5302
    You should take a look at Stuff+ on Fangraphs. It combines things like spin rate, direction, movement and the movement difference from fastball to, say, changeup. Festa's fastball overall is 104, a little better than average. His slider is even better at 120. The changeup, though. Offda. 66. That's not an MLB caliber pitch. I tend to feel Festa's fastball's complete lack of horizontal movement is going to be a problem for him, even if Stuff+ doesn't think so. If a hitter only has to pay attention to 1 axis, it feels like a pitch will be much easier to deal with. Still, Stuff+ is supposedly an excellent predictor in general. One quick correction. You don't want a 4 seam fastball to drop, you want it to "rise" even though that's technically impossible. Hitters are expecting a ball to curve downwards in an arc. When the spin of the fastball causes it to drop less than expected, it's harder to hit. League average drop rate is 13.4" The other issue for Festa is he's wild. He was clearly trying far too hard to avoid issuing walks (54% zone rate), but many of his pitches were still way outside the zone. He needs better control over his pitches, and he needs that changeup to work.
  11. bean5302
    https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/jose-ramirez-grounds-out-third-baseman-royce-lewis-to-first-baseman-edoua Lewis is a fielding work in progress, but he has the tools to be an outstanding 3rd baseman. It's going to take reps. We haven't seen enough of Lee to say how good he'll be, but his ceiling is quite a bit lower than Lewis.
  12. bean5302
    Not sure why you feel like normal back fractures involve spinal cord injury. The Twins should definitely avoid Luzardo. He's not what the Twins need, and he's going to be overly expensive.
  13. bean5302
    Generally, arbitration looks at the previous 2 years. Since Arraez started his salaries much higher 2.1 -> 6.1 -> 10.0, he had a better starting point than Castro. With Castro at 3.3MM this year, more than doubling his salary in his final arbitration year gets tougher. I don't think Castro would make more than $8MM or so at 4 WAR. He is setting himself up for a potentially big free agent payday in 2027, though.
  14. bean5302
    Lee is a poor runner (limited range), and his arm isn't as good as Lewis. Royce Lewis max throw speed 85.8mph this year, averaged 84.4 last year. Brooks Lee max throw speed 81.7mph. I loved the play Lee made with his off balance, bare hander of a throw the other day, but he simply doesn't have the physical tools Lewis does. Lee seems smooth and polished in the field, and he might be better than Lewis when it comes to errors, but you guys are really underestimating Lewis or overestimating Lee here. A little nitpick. Virtually nobody thought Brooks Lee was going much before #8. Keith Law, #7 CBS, #7 MLB, #5 Fangraphs, #8 ESPN, #7 Bleacher Report, #6 Prospects Live, #7
  15. bean5302
    Is it or is it not fractures in his vertebrae? The term "stress reaction" is used to make micro-fractures sound better. Miami put Luzardo on the 60 day IL almost immediately. 4-6 weeks is 28-42 days, and Miami really wanted to move Luzardo for cost savings and trade assets. Moving him to the 60 day IL makes it clear this is a serious injury, but this type of injury Luzardo is expected to make a full recovery. Stress reactions are very common in runners, especially new runners who ramp up too fast. Got them shins a barkin' The first time I really looked into the stress reaction was good 'ol Miguel Sano. He gained a gazillion pounds, got moved to the outfield and literally broke his legs by running on them as a result. Stress reaction. A lot of his fans blamed a ball off the shin out of the batters box, but stress reactions are not acute type injuries. Broken back is more accurate, IMHO. It gives the injury a clear definition. Fractures in bone. I'm not sure what Nick Paparesta has to do with Jesus Luzardo's recovery from his injury? Lee Meyer is Florida's head trainer. You might take broken back to mean spinal cord injury, but they're not the same.
  16. bean5302
    Unfortunately, Larnach's exit velocity, his barrel rate and hard hit rates are combined, average-ish over the past 150 PA. He had his flash in the pan, and he's been about 20% below league average on the production side of things since early May. A big part of that is a consistent .260-.270 on base percentage. Yeah, not AVG. His OBP has been consistently .260-.270 since early May because he stopped taking walks in order to reduce his K rate. I don't think Larnach is a 20% below league average hitter for the course of a season, but he's exactly who he was on a production level. League average bat, limited defensive value player. On the right team, that adds some value. I think he's probably a 1.5 WAR player over the course of a full year. Not ideal, but not a huge boat anchor. Since Larnach is out of options, his utility to the Twins is getting pretty thin.
  17. bean5302
    I'm familiar with the concept of a stress reaction. Microfractures in bones. Generally related to chronic stress of the bones/over aggressive ramp up, etc.
  18. bean5302
    Balazovic's pitches had little spin or movement. Just didn't have the stuff to be successful at AAA/MLB.
  19. bean5302
    It's great to see Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez all back in the lineup at the same time. I don't think that's happened this year before now. He doesn't really have any time to get back on his roll before the All Star Break, but I expect Rodriguez will be in St. Paul after the trade deadline if he keeps hitting. Gonzalez will likely be in AA when Rodriguez gets his promotion which paves the easy way for Jenkins to move into Cedar Rapids. Payton Eeles, a24, starting off hot at AAA is fun to watch. He's now basically caught up to his peers who were drafted out of college ball. Eddie Julien must be stressed out about his situation as Eeles has already gotten a start at 2B with the Saints. I feel a Julien trade is likely in the cards.
  20. bean5302
    It's a curious move to call up Wallner. Not saying he hasn't earned it, but he's not the type of AAAA depth guy the Twins would generally add for a handful of days. I do think Larnach is probably on the edge now. Larnach's last 40 G = .211/.269/.383 OPS .652, 7.6%BB, 20.0% K wRC+ 84 Exit Velocity 90.9mph (89.5mph MLB median, 71%) Barrel Rate 9.5% (8.7% MLB median, 57%) Hard Hit 39.0% (41.2% median, 41%) Those percentiles are compared against 143 MLB qualified hitters.
  21. bean5302
    Basically, Miranda eliminated a lot of noise. Miranda's pre-swing last year: 1) Hands at eye level 2) Hands drop straight down to beneath shoulder 3) Hands arc half circle lower to higher back behind shoulder to prepare for swing. 4) Swing Miranda's pre-swing this year. 1) Hands shoulder at shoulder height. 2) Hands and shoulder cock back slightly 3) Swing
  22. bean5302
    Miranda reminds me quite a bit of Luis Arraez at this point. Suspect defense, poor runner, great hit tool. Trades some elevated K rate for more power, but a lot of Miranda's hits look like Arraez's hits. Looping soft liners to the short outfield. I don't think Miranda will be long term defensive liability at 1B if he was an every day starter there.
  23. bean5302
    The AL West should be interesting to watch. I could see the Astros moving Pressley if they falter. Not sure why everybody is so convinced the Twins will refuse to spend anything considering their TV deal is in place for this year, they're $25MM under last year's payroll, and they're a playoff team atm.
  24. bean5302
    Yep. Marlins and Twins were picking 1-2. Florida wanted Camp, and they were worried the Twins would grab him so they arranged a deal with the Twins. Twins got their guy (Santana), plus $50k in cash. Santana was always going to be the Twins' pick.
  25. bean5302
    The more accurate way of putting his injury is broken back. He's got a stress reaction (a bunch of microfractures) in his vertebrae.
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