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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    On the pitching side of things. Happily Surprised Joe Ryan - 3.53 ERA, 3.44 FIP SWR - 3.51 ERA, 3.69 FIP Jorge Alcala - 1.56 ERA, 2.82 FIP Cole Sands - 3.52 ERA, 2.84 FIP Griffin Jax - 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP About what I expected Josh Staumont - 2.83 ERA, 4.24 FIP Steven Okert - 3.86 ERA, 4.02 FIP Louie Varland - 6.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP David Festa - 7.06 ERA, 4.38 FIP Jay Jackson - 7.52 ERA, 5.44 FIP Bailey Ober - 4.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP Chris Paddack - 4.99 ERA, 4.18 FIP Jhoan Duran - 2.93, 4.24 FIP Big disappointments Pablo Lopez - 5.11 ERA, 3.83 FIP Brock Stewart - 0.68 ERA, 2.94 FIP Kody Funderburk - 5.61 ERA, 4.65 FIP Caleb Thielbar - 5.64 ERA, 4.61 FIP The biggest positive is Simeon Woods Richardson. He's been huge and totally unexpected. I'd written him off after another year of consistently poor performance in the minors. He's sustained his success, and there is reason to expect he can continue being effective enough in the rotation at this point. I think he's outperforming expectations at the moment, but it couldn't have come at a better time. First half Joe Ryan showed up again, and I'm happy to see it. I hope his last 2 starts isn't the beginnings of the appearance of second half Joe Ryan. In the bullpen, it has to be Jax. He's been truly elite, and it's made up for hiccups from Jhoan Duran this year. Biggest disappointments? Pablo Lopez. While his FIP is right about where I'd expect, the ERA is not. He's put the Twins in a hole time and again this year for a guy who is about to be making $20MM a year. It's been tough to watch especially with the departure of Gray. In the bullpen, Kody Funderburk. I was expecting him to be very good this year as I didn't expect Thielbar to be a long term asset, but reevaluating Funderburk as a lefty option has to happen at this point. Bummer.
  2. bean5302
    Happily Surprised Carlos Correa - Expected wRC+ 130ish 4 WAR pace Willi Castro - Expected wRC+ 105ish 2.5 WAR pace Jose Miranda - Expected wRC+ 120ish 2.5 WAR pace Carlos Santana - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace About what I expected Trevor Larnach - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace Ryan Jeffers - Expected wRC+ 105ish 3 WAR pace. Brooks Lee - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace. Austin Martin - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace. Manuel Margot - Expected wRC+ 90ish 1 WAR pace. Alex Kirilloff - Expected wRC+ 100ish 0 WAR pace. Big disappointments Royce Lewis - Expected wRC+ 160ish, 6 WAR pace. Kyle Farmer - Expected wRC+ 100ish, 2 WAR pace. Matt Wallner - Expected wRC+ 150ish, 4 WAR pace. Edouard Julien - Expected wRC+ 110ish, 3 WAR pace. Max Kepler - Expected wRC+ 120ish, 3 WAR pace. Christian Vazquez - Expected wRC+ 80ish, 2 WAR pace. My confidence production levels stay the same varies based on the player. The biggest boost has been Jose Miranda. The production won't continue at wRC+ 150, but it might settle in at 130, and that's absolutely huge. Having a high contact guy to replace Luis Arraez and make the game more interesting is really nice. The biggest disappointment has been Royce Lewis and the gut punch of his opening day injury derailing my expectations he'll likely ever be healthy.
  3. bean5302
    Wallner has produced the following since his return. .364 AVG functional, at least .462 OBP seems pretty okay .727 SLG adequate 1.189 OPS I mean, I'll take it even if I'd like to see a lot more. He'd be on pace for 93 RBI in a 162 game season. Also, why do you care about K ratio? That's a pretty modern stat.
  4. bean5302
    Alex Kirilloff has negative trade value. Can we compromise at no trade value. Below league average bat DH who is constantly hurt. A career 0.1 WAR in 900 plate appearances making $1.4MM.
  5. bean5302
    I expect the Guardians to have some serious regression, but they've carried a lot of luck their way until pretty late into the season already. Regression doesn't generally all happen at once so there's probably not enough time left for the Guardians to drop to 3rd in the AL Central, but it's where they should be at this point.
  6. bean5302
    Oh man, that feels like the perfect opportunity for a satire article.
  7. bean5302
    I think Correa is probably day to day and waiting to see how his heel responds to a week of rest. Last year, 2 weeks off for a much more serious case was enough to make a dramatic difference for him. Diego Castillo is a26 and he's posted solid numbers in AAA. Given the fact he's about to run out of options, giving him a look is a good idea. He's only had one significant opportunity to show his stuff at the top level with Pittsburgh in 2022 at age 24 where he struggled quite a bit. There's been a marked improvement in his BB rate and his K rate at AAA since then so he might be serviceable as a utility guy and Farmer won't be back next year.
  8. bean5302
    So it has to do with results rather than payroll, then? But it also doesn't have to do with results because attendance was poor in 2021 after the restrictions started coming off and there are plenty of teams in MLB who have better attendance but worse results. Saying it's payroll isn't true because there are low payroll teams who draw much better than the Twins have as of late. Saying it's TV isn't true because there are other teams affected by the TV deal. In good season ticket years, and season ticketholders are the absolute backbone of almost any team's attendance, and the Twins didn't announce the payroll cut before the end of the playoffs last year. The TV debacle didn't start until into the start of the season at which point season ticket sales are almost dead. The Twins are poor at marketing. Pure and simple.
  9. bean5302
    So why was attendance bad 2022-2023 when the Twins were spending $150MM? Surely, since the Twins expanded payrolls all the fans should have lined up!
  10. bean5302
    The Twins would have to add $75MM of AAV to get to that $25MM of cost you've quoted. I agree. The Twins are absolutely not going to add $75MM of AAV payroll at the deadline.
  11. bean5302
    This is all clearly my fault. I've been buried in a house project to the point I've barely been able to even look at a box score. I check back in yesterday and the whole team is injured. Either that, or it goes to @RandBalls Stu for that injury deity's with their eyes on the Twins article. Hopefully, guys bounce back quickly!
  12. bean5302
    Oh, on the topic, no I don't think the attendance will impact the aggressiveness of the Twins at the deadline in any way. The Pohlad's have shown a willingness to try the spend money to make money approach recently, and if Falvey has a need, there will be support to get it done. The Twins are $25MM lower in payroll right now than they were last year. That's plenty of room for 1/3 of the season of salary.
  13. bean5302
    Yes. It's led to an expansion of season ticket holder options. For instance, the 40 game, Flex 40 and 80 plans are allowed to choose Club Level which was not the case before. Season ticket openings are everywhere in the stadium, and I've purchased them as late as a couple days before the start of the season with options in pretty much every single section.
  14. bean5302
    Minneapolis is viewed as an singular entity. Plenty of suburban people got caught up in the effects of the riots, and then the police shortage where crimes are rampant and they go unpunished. Friends who've watched their stuff get stolen and jails wouldn't even take the suspects who were arrested with outstanding felony warrants during COVID. I had suburban friends who were dining in a restaurant when bricks came through the windows during the riots. I had friends who were scared to death living in South Minneapolis as their garage was broken into and looted multiple times. I know a lot of service industry folks who are very concerned about working Uptown after having their friends held up at gunpoint for their tips, and those service workers make sure they park in the same ramps as the police typically park when working downtown events. One of my friends refuses to work at the Fillmore anymore. You walk the wrong direction, and you can find trouble. Car jackings were daily news events. One of my black friends was actually a little scared to come here on a visit because of reputation. She was disappointed to discover there was no excitement, just a really pretty city. The reputation of Minneapolis is one of not caring about most crimes, and short staffed to deal with the crimes they do care about. Neighborhoods suburban folks used to live in and frequent had major violent crime issues recently (Uptown, South), and that impacts the perception of the city as a whole for a long time. Suburban and rural communities care about prosecuting crime, and they assume the lack of criminal prosecution is synonymous with high crime rates.
  15. bean5302
    Do you think sports on television has a big impact on high school kids? Soccer wasn't big on television, but it's exploding in interest levels. Baseball has a reputation as boring. Old. Obsolete. What would happen if the Twins gave away 2 sections of tickets to high schools for every game? What would happen if Twins minor leaguers showed up to local high school games? What would happen if the Twins actually marketed to teenagers instead of 4 year olds who have no money and grow out of the sport?
  16. bean5302
    I'm with @Mike Sixel in regard to taking more pitchers early on. Brecht was pretty enticing, and while there is a sentiment the Twins can just take a round 20 unknown and make him throw 98 to turn him into a rotation weapon, that really hasn't happened yet. The only prospect the Twins have successfully drafted, developed and added to the rotation with an unexpected velocity increase has been Bailey Ober who added 3-4mph on his still below average heater, along with exceptional control which has allowed him to stick towards the end of the rotation. Varland, now with a substantial track record, and Festa, who has clear limitations, are long shots as viable starters despite making the big show. Making MLB is a major success for late rounders, but 80% of first round picks make it. Tampa Bay drafts pitching, pitching, pitching. There's a reason they churn out so many arms, and it's not just because they're good at development. They have a surplus of early round selections which go into the rotation, and that surplus has led to profit. Since starting pitching commands such a huge premium, hitting on a single starter can net Tampa Bay 2-3 very good position player prospects. Falvey's approach of "I can just create starting pitchers" has yet to bear significant fruit, and he's overseen the least successful front office since the early 2000s when it comes to developing pitching, though there's always tantalizing promise in guys coming through the low/mid minors. There may be some change in the wind with Matthews and Morris, and with Simeon Woods Richardson finally starting to pan out, it seems like Falvey's hot seat might be cooled slightly.
  17. bean5302
    Season ticket sales didn't materialize during or after the playoffs last year, and that was well before the Twins mentioned slashing payroll or the TV debacles. Attendance is down largely because season ticket holders are down in my opinion. The offseason reduction to only the #19 spending club in baseball (will be #1 in the AL Central at the end of the year) isn't the issue. The TV debacle isn't the issue this year. It's probably had little meaningful effect. The Twins' ownership had spent $150MM and had TV contracts the two prior years, but attendance was poor then as well. The payroll slash and TV debacles might have an impact in the future, but it was too late to make a big splash on attendance this year IMHO. Dave St. Peter needs to be removed from his position and replaced with somebody who better understands how to market the product. That much is exceedingly clear.
  18. bean5302
    Kirilloff has no trade value. He'll be arb 2 this offseason, and he hasn't produced a single WAR in his career. In fact, nearing 1,000 PA, Kirilloff's career fWAR = 0.1. If he didn't have options, he'd be a DFA candidate. Detmers hasn't even hit arbitration eligibility and has options left next year. He's got a career FIP of 4.18, and it's 4.38 this year. No way the Angels are trading basically a Bailey Ober for an non-tender candidate. Detmers put up 2.2 fWAR in 2022 last year. 2.5 fWAR last year. The only issue Detmers has is giving up gopher balls hanging a few pitches. Seems like a little mental issue he's working through as his BB and K rates are good, and his average EV is solid. SIERA is 4.00 this year.
  19. bean5302
    Here I thought it was Miranda with the heel injury? If Correa is hurt, he'll be replaced for the ASG. I haven't had time to look at much with a huge home project turning things into a disaster.
  20. bean5302
    While I would have liked to see the Twins take the series out in SF to move the Giants further back, it wasn't a complete disaster, and they got a look at one of the top arms likely to be available at the trade deadline. Blake Snell is still going to opt out if he pitches well down the stretch, and the Giants are going to be open to moving him if they're in the same spot as they are right now at under .500. Snell's earning $15MM this year in salary, with a signing bonus of $17MM split 50/50 between this year and next, which should make him very affordable. If Snell opts out, the Twins would be on the hook for as little as $5MM.
  21. bean5302
    Carlos Correa should go out there and kill it during the All Star Game. The Minnesota Twins can use all the good publicity they can get, and Correa has worked his ass off to deserve the nod. Guys can get hurt partying after games, they can get hurt riding their bicycles, and they can get hurt in a car accident. These players already have "don't do" lists 1/2 a mile long restricting their activities outside of the sport. They're human, it'd be nice if they get to live like it.
  22. bean5302
    The article talked about top prospects, though it's hard to delineate there what that means. About 80% of 1st round picks make the big show. About 20% become starter caliber or better MLB players.
  23. bean5302
    I wasn't disagreeing with you or the OP. I was agreeing with the sentiment no starter who isn't worthy of being a top 3 on a playoff team should be added to our roster. I also added a reference as to what happens in the event of a longer playoff series where a #4 comes into the picture and how important that #4 be a borderline playoff starter really is in terms of being competitive.
  24. bean5302
    For the Twins, certainly, player performance and development is all over the place in the minors and MLB. It happens elsewhere, too. Acuna, Rodriguez, Manoah, Keith, That said, derailment of development timetables for injury is one thing. To have players struggle on a repeat of the same level and then go on to be studs at the MLB level doesn't feel very common to me. In any case, it's okay for a prospect not to work out. They usually don't. Explanations like "it's not linear" should be pretty well taken care of by the time they hit MLB, but it still occasionally happens that a player needs a reset in the minors to work on something. That's a big reason why options exist. That said, the Berrios' of the world aren't incredibly common. Guys who stink at the MLB level, then go down and come back up to dominate. There are tons of "sophomore slumps" which are actually just opponents figuring a guy's weakness out. Looking at the top 20 fWAR position players in MLB right now (not named Ohtani): Harper, Lindor, Marte, Duran, Devers, all had what I'd call a hiccup in their development. That's about a 25% chance. At least a couple of those guys were in the big show at age 20-21. Lewis is probably the most glaring example of non-linear development on the Twins right now. Nothing in his MiLB career really pointed to him being good at the plate. He looked rough in AA before he lost a couple years, but when he came back, he was a totally different player. An MVP caliber guy. Wallner changed his approach at AA a couple years ago when he learned he wasn't on the path to ever being a big leaguer because he was Eddie Rosario out there, hacking away at bad pitches. I don't think it's a coincidence those adjustments were made pre-AAA. 75% of the time, when you see a hiccup, it's not a hiccup. It's a talent ceiling being reached.
  25. bean5302
    I suppose it depends on whether or not you consider Paddack better than Ober. Personally, I think he's well lower than Ober, but it's clear Ober isn't a guy who would really be considered a preferable option as a playoff starter. 1. Lopez 2. Ryan 3. Woods Richardson 4. Ober 5. DNP That's probably the order the front office is looking at right now. The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have potential playoff caliber starters at #4, but the rest of the AL likely playoff teams are 3 quality playoff arms deep before you start getting into the guys you have less confidence in being great.
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