bean5302

Paddack to IL with a pretty bad case of "suckitis." I have it on authority here's the conversation. Falvey: "Look, Chris, you've been infected with a pretty bad case of suckitis. We wanted to limit your innings a little anyway this year so you're either going to be moved to the 15 day IL or you're going to be moved to the bullpen for the rest of the year. Now, MLB's watching us like hawks with the Phantom IL thing so I need to hear it from you that the reason for your suckitis is arm fatigue. Or you can tell me you really like being a middle reliever." Paddack: "You know, now that you mention it, my arm has felt a little tired lately. I've been throwing my hardest to try to compensate so my velo isn't down. I probably need a skip a start or two." Falvey: "Great! That's exactly what I thought was happening. I'm so glad we were on the same page."

In what world is Sabato related to Rooker? They're not similar. MiLB Level, OPS Yr 1 - Rooker, Rk = .952, A+ = .917 Yr 1 - Sabato, A = .722, A+ = 1.015 Yr 2 - Rooker, AA = .798 Yr 2 - Sabato, A+ = .798, AA = .688 Yr 3 - Rooker, AAA = .933 Yr 3 - Sabato, AA = .759 Yr 4 - Rooker, MLB = .960 Yr 4 - Sabato, AA = .815 In 2021 Rooker got some sporadic plate appearances and Falvey decided he liked Larnach more so Rooker was cast off. Rooker's xwOBA was .341 in 2021, which was 40 points higher than his actual wOBA. Rooker's exit velocity, barrel rate, lack of glaring weaknesses against pitch types, etc made him a prime candidate to get regular plate appearances, but it seemed like he didn't get the opportunities after the Twins wrote him off. Sabato has been mediocre at the plate and slow to advance. Rooker hit well and kept hitting as he moved up quickly. For the record in 2023, Brent Rooker was not a 1 month wonder. April wRC+ 232 May wRC+ 77 Jun wRC+ 74 Jul wRC+ 144 Aug wRC+ 94 Sep wRC+ 159 After April wRC+ 109. Pretty far cry from "ugh" even if it wasn't super impressive. Also, he's hitting well again this year. I think it's fair to say the guy can hit.

I don't know why I bothered...

Even at their peak value, we I expect we probably have better options logjammed behind them. I don't see the Twins cutting bait on them while they're performing well (and they have been hitting well the past few weeks). I think Falvey will probably hang on to Farmer and Margot until the All Star Break and determine what to do at that point. It's only 3 weeks away. Farmer earns another 40 plate appearances, continues to hit at wRC+ 130 and his overall line climbs to wRC+ 85 Margot earns another 60 plate appearances, continues to hit at wRC+ 130 and his overal line climbs to wRC+ 96 Both Farmer and Margot can likely be moved at that point.

Just about all of them. Almost all the Twins position players start over Guardians position players. C - Jeffers* > Naylor 1B - Santana < Naylor* 2B - Castro* > Gimenez 3B - Lewis* > Ramirez SS - Correa* > Rocchio LF - Larnach < Kwan* CF - Buxton* > Freeman RF - Kepler* > Brennan DH - Miranda < Fry* SP1 - Lopez < Bibee* SP2 - Ryan* > Allen SP3 - Paddack* > McKenzie SP4 - Ober* > Lively SP5 - Woods Richardson* > Carrasco Cleveland's rotation ranks 28th of 30 teams in FIP. The Guardians have almost no advantages in position players and rotation, but they do have an excellent bullpen. Unfortunately for Cleveland, even the bullpen is due for major regression. Clease 0.72 ERA vs. 1.94 FIP Gaddis 1.51 ERA vs. 2.22 FIP Herrin 1.16 ERA vs. 2.53 FIP Sandin 3.49 ERA vs. 4.10 FIP Some of their pitchers have career ERA's better than their FIPs, but not to the extent showing so far. Their whole bullpen's ERA is 3.49 vs 3.89 FIP. When it comes to hitting the Guardians again show massive, generally unsustainable splits. No outs = wRC+ 92 1 out = wRC+ 125 2 outs = wRC+ 111 Empty = wRC+ 93 Runners on = wRC+ 131 RISP = wRC+ 139 The Guardians rank 20th in hard hit rate overall... Regression for the Guardians is expected across the board in almost every area. In theory, the Guardians could just keep lucking out or they could have turned into a different team. It happens. Like Royce Lewis last year. He wasn't hitting balls well when he came up, but he just kept getting on base anyway. But Lewis got better and better and better and soon his expected production was right in line with the actual production. To have that happen with a player is pretty unusual. To have that happen team wide is unheard of.

Nope. Say a catcher has 3 WAR because they have a wRC+ of 90 and good defense. If they had a - 2 WPA, it just means the catcher turns into 2024 Christian Vazquez at the plate whenever the team needs a meaningful plate appearance. It's about how that player directly impacted the outcome of games throughout the season. That's why a guy like Miguel Sano almost always had a lower WPA than his WAR. Important situation? He was an easy out, even if his WAR suggested he was valuable, like in 2019. WPA is just a fancier "clutch" stat IMHO.

Margot and Farmer are completely disposable. It's valuable only in the way that it allows the Twins to potentially move their contracts or trade other assets. Neither player is important to the team's success. For that matter, Carlos Santana is in the same boat, except he's provided legitimate value at this point.

WPA is a stat. It's useful when used in the right way. More or less a better indicator of how a player performs under pressure. Are they racking up their stats in garbage time or are they providing value when it matters? When you see a 3 WAR player with -2 WPA it tells you a lot about how that player actually performs when the team really needs them.

Sources Forbes for revenue and profit (operating income), Spotrac for salary.

SoS in the past. This is an topic about the Guardians, not about the Twins.

The bullpen is not going to save a team which is likely going to finish the season with a bottom 1/3rd lineup and the worst rotation in baseball. Just a matter of time.

Farmer's been above average at the plate since late April. How much depends on which date you choose, but anywhere from wRC+ 103 to 128. He's been good, apart from the TOOTBLAN. Lewis is entrenched at 3B. Correa is entrenched at SS. Castro, Farmer, Martin, can all play 2B, plus Julien (who is on 40 man, unlike Lee) Chris Parmelee a24 - .338/.457/.645 OPS 1.102 18.1% BB, 18.4% K, wRC+ 202 in his first go-'round of AAA. OMG! Superstar!!!! Jake Cave a22 - .458/.517/.667 OPS 1.184, 10.3% BB, 27.6% K, wRC+ 239 in his first small sample of AAA. MVP! MVP! Oswaldo Arcia a22 - .313/.426/.594 OPS 1.020, 14.2% BB, 23.9% K, wRC+ 186 in AAA at first. HoF'er guaranteed!!!!

The eyeball test is limited to the 5 plays he remembers Julien being terrible at. Applying tags and positioning on attempted steals, etc. That's the issue with the "eyeball" (aka selective memory) test is people remember a handful of plays. Julien's had 168 chances this year. Guessing the eyeball test remembers 5 of them. UZR/150 pegs Julien at -4.2 this year. It's the metric I generally prefer to use if I'm selecting a single defensive metric in a vacuum as it's generally fairly consistent. Mixing in the OAA (physical ceilings) +4, and Rdrs/1200 at -3, gives a pretty good picture. Julien has room to grow still, but he's still below average, at least IMHO.

Wallner is fast, and his arm is an absolutely cannon, but his reactions, and acceleration hold him back a lot. Until he improves on his reaction and first step, he'll never be better than adequate in the corners. Shame. He has the tools to be better than Kepler.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/chicago-white-sox-listening-to-trade-offers-for-outfielder-luis-robert-jr-set-high-asking-price-juan-soto-padres-nationals-2022-01hzz6e38hac The White Sox are asking for more than Soto brought in last year. They're nuts, and they've been nuts all year. Something like Ober + Varland + 1 top (1-5), +1 (5 - 10). Luis Robert, Jr. is an solid, but not above average, center fielder on a pretty sizeable contract. He's under contract for the same amount as Byron Buxton next year at $15MM, and his $20MM club options for 2026-2027 aren't worth much given Robert's true performance in the 3 prior years (3 WAR average). I'd rather the Twins not trade the White Sox a new farm system for a guy who's kind of a mirror of Buxton (without the elite defense)

Posted this on another thread. The Twins spent a higher percentage of their revenues on player salary than either the Dodgers or the Yankees last year. If that's what you're looking for, The Angels or Rockies or White Sox are the teams for you. They typically spend a ton of money and a high percentage of revenues on player salary year in and out! Go root for them! You'll be happy knowing you have a competitive team destined for the World Series! Don't fall into the trap of the Padres = Dying owner's last wish. Mets = New owner out to flaunt his wealth and prove you can buy a World Series

They've also had the weakest schedule in MLB. They're also 6-2 in extra innings They're also 12-9 in one run games. Their high end hitters have been massively lucky and are due for colossal regression Kwan wOBA .443 vs. xwOBA .371 = -0.72 pts Fry wOBA .408 vs. .364 = -0.44 pts Ramirez wOBA .364 vs. .310 = -0.54 pts Naylor wOBA .352 vs. .359 = +0.07 pts Brennan wOBA .319 vs. .320 = +0.01 pts But most of all, the Guardians are using weighted dice on their saving throws vs. reasonable outcomes. They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

If we're going with jokes, I add. Brooks Lee probably does live in Minneapolis, and the Twins are in Phoenix and Seattle for the next couple weeks so sure. Brooks Lee can be in Minneapolis NOW.

I think it's worth noting Edouard Julien is hitting again, too. There just isn't space on the 26 man roster, and Lee isn't even on the 40 man. In order to get Lee on the 26 man, they have to DFA somebody, clear space on the 26 man, and have Lee leapfrog Julien. DFA candidates include Kyle Farmer, Ronny Henriquez, Josh Winder 26 man demotion/DFA = Kyle Farmer I could see the Twins trading either Julien or Lee, but they're not going to want to sell low on Julien.

Up until this year, Lee was a black hole at the plate vs. LHP, so even if he was technically a switch hitter, it was kind of just a formality. He was really a LHB who could stand in the RH batters box. That's a big reason why, from all of my understanding, Lee was never a threat to make the opening day roster. The Twins wanted him to prove he could actually switch hit before finding an opening for him. In a tiny sample size of 30 PA, Lee has crushed it as a RHB this year, without any glaring problems. .321/.367/.679, OPS 1.045 6.7% BB, 16.7% K, .429 BABIP He's played in only 24 games this year. Just about enough to be considered a rehab assignment. I think the Twins are going to want him to get in a little more time before they add him to the 40 man and call him up.

I don't recall ever seeing any reputable source who expected Brooks Lee on the 26 man to start the season. I'd like a link to that source.

Let's not forget Houston's bungle the year before Aiken, either. Two 1st overall picks, back to back, that were total and complete busts. At least the Astros traded Appel off. As you point out, mid first rounders aren't much different than late first rounders in terms of the studies of success rates.

Lugo had quite a bit of success as a starter: 2016 47 IP, 2.68 ERA 2017 98.1 IP, 4.76 ERA 2018 23.0 IP, 3.91 ERA 2020 26.1 IP, 6.15 ERA In 2020, the Mets just randomly decided one day at the end of the season Lugo was going to be a starter and instead of pitching 1 inning, he was going to pitch 5 or 6. Lugo had a couple really awful starts that skewed his numbers, but again, pretty successful. Here's an article supporting what you're talking about, though. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-relievers-succeeding-as-starting-pitchers-in-2024 I just don't think Jax is going to be so effective.

Varland's unlikely to be a viable rotation arm. He had some nice results in his last couple appearances (especially the 4 inning relief appearance), but the rocket ship contact velocity he's been giving up isn't going to produce sustainable good appearances. That said, if Varland moves into the 'pen again, he's probably there permanently, assuming he can be effective as a reliever.

Lopez's brutal stretch... AKA 2024. It's great to get a good start out of Lopez. He's not going to be able to recover to have a decent season at this point, but maybe he can whip himself into shape where he's good for the playoffs again.