Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,507

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Spencer Bengard FTM (A) - 5 G, 2 GS, 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 9.43 K/9 (27%), 1.29 BB/9 (4%). Travis Adams WCH (AA) - 4 GS, 22.0 IP, 2.05 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 11.05 K/9 (31%), 2.86 BB/9 (8%) Nice honorable mentions.
  2. bean5302
    I was excited for him to start the season, but that faded as the same size grew. In the first few couple weeks he was back, he was crushing baseballs, but more importantly, he wasn't showing to be weak against his old nemesis, the non-4 seamer pitches. Unfortunately, his results against breaking and offspeed stuff reverted. The Fastball looks insane, but he was at like +30 projected a couple weeks ago. Things look like they're starting to normalize (numbers below projected based on a full season) Pitch Type Pitch % Exp. Pitches 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fastball 28% 448 4 2 0 16 Slider 18% 288 -4 7 2 -4 Changeup 18% 288 -8 -7 -2 -12 Curveball 11% 176 1 -4 -3 -3 Sinker 9% 144 -3 4 2 -3 Cutter 6% 96 -4 -4 5 5 Splitter 5% 80 0 -6 4 0 Other 5% 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A I saw the xwOBA for Larnach, and I dove into it deeper because I like that stat, but it didn't feel quite right to me. I dove into his last couple months for line drive rates, hard hit rates, barrels, average exit velocities, etc. Nothing stood out as particularly above average, and his walks plummeted even harder as a percentage than his K rate did. I guess I'm not sure why the xwOBA is so much above average as a result of that.
  3. bean5302
    Top 10 MLB hitters grow on trees when Matt Wallner discussions start up around here, haha. Trevor Larnach, ooooooo wRC+ 99, 1.2 fWAR 900 PA Alex Kirilloff, swooooonnn wRC+ 100, 0.2 fWAR 900 PA Matt Wallner, pffftt. AAAA. wRC+ 129, 1.6 fWAR, 350 PA How other teams view Matt Wallner is open to debate, but he was more valuable on BaseballTradeValues than Brooks Lee was to start the season. Unfortunately, that site is all paywall now. There was another player in the past couple years who had drawn the fans' ire just like Wallner. His name is Brent Rooker. Currently one of the best hitters in baseball for his second consecutive year, on pace for a 3.6 fWAR DH season, and possibly another All Star appearance. I don't think the Twins will deal Wallner. On his own, he's not going to bring back Zac Gallen or something, though.
  4. bean5302
    Miranda had a bum shoulder last year. The way fans on this site turned on him was shocking considering how he played at age 23, dominating AAA, and 24 putting up a near full season with a wRC+ 117. On the polar opposite end, the dominant position on this site was an endless swoon for Alex Kirilloff. 50% of the player outlook on this site is nothing more than a popularity contest. I'll form my opinions based on data, watching the games, and my own gut instincts.
  5. bean5302
    Varland's track record is plenty long at this point, and he's 26. 5.30 ERA, 5.40 FIP as a starter across 3 years without any peripherals suggesting he's turning a corner. He gives up very loud contact on a regular basis because his pitches don't fool MLB hitters while he's in the rotation. There's a reason the Twins called up Festa instead of Varland (who would have been on 5 days rest, if I remember right). Festa is age 24, and he has 2 MLB caliber pitches. Even if he could put the ball in the general vicinity of where he's aiming (which he can't), starters don't make it with 2 pitches. He's got 2 more years with options left so there's no reason to DFA him or something, but expectations should be tempered by how he's struggled this year in AAA (1/2 his starts are disasters), and how hard he got hit at the MLB level. He's not a young prospect. Larnach is 27, and at 900 plate appearances in his career with the same type of results over and over. He cannot hit breaking and offspeed pitches. People remember a 2 week hot streak for him this year, but he's been struggling for the past 2 months now. He got more aggressive at the plate so his K rate dropped by a bunch, but his walks vanished even harder. In 4 years, he's never produced over 0.8 fWAR, he's never had a season with a wRC+ higher than 108 (this year).
  6. bean5302
    You can feel free to disagree with me, but I've seen all I need to see of who Festa is right now. When you have a one trick pony like Festa who can't even consistently perform well at AAA, then he gets called up and wollop'd up, that's a pattern which makes sense. Festa's fastball grades as average (104), and that's probably generous given how it has virtually no horizontal movement, and his slider (120) is well above average. The grades are based on movement, spin, etc. If Festa adds a legitimate 3rd pitch, he might be a good future rotation piece. His changeup moves worse than average both vertically and horizontally, and graded a 66 where average quality is 100. Despite the potential for his pitches to be better, not one of them was effective in terms of actual results. The K rate is the first thing to look at for Festa. It was his calling card. It vanished at the MLB level, probably in part to Festa having a zone rate of 54.3%, which would be by far the highest of any qualified pitcher in MLB. He was throwing meatballs. A lot of them. Festa was pretty average when it came to O-contact rates, and his chase rate was good so if his location was where it should have been, he probably would have gotten more Ks. His zone rate was a lot higher than recorded in AAA, but even with Festa obviously trying hard to avoid walks/balls, he wasn't able to locate his pitches. Before you start bringing advanced metrics into the evaluation, you need to determine whether or not the player is a legitimate MLB caliber player. Festa is not right now. He can't locate his pitches, and he only has 2 viable pitches at the MLB level. That will never play in the big leagues. As I noted, I've seen enough of Festa as he is right now. He's got a lot of work do to before he might be a viable MLB rotation arm. Banking on Festa becoming a legit MLB rotation arm is a "no" for me. I can still hope he figures a couple things out to take a big step forward, but I'm not counting on it.
  7. bean5302
    ...and how many of those hitters were 6'5 and 250lbs who could bench 300lbs armed with specialized, technologically advanced 30-32oz bats made of maple and cupped at the end? Most old timey baseball players were 6'0" and about 175lbs. Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, all around there. Mickey Mantle was 5'11" 195lbs. Ruth only tipped the scales at 215 and swung a 50oz bat.
  8. bean5302
    For what? He's a below league average hitting DH who has to be platooned with no options after this year and he's going to be Arb2 next year. I mean, could the Twins get a PTBNL for him? I suppose some guy on the cusp of a team's top 30. AFAIC, if the Twins need the roster space, they can DFA and outright Kirilloff. I mean, I suppose there's a chance a team picks him up off waivers, but I don't have a problem watching him walk.
  9. bean5302
    I took the title literally. One year from now, rather than opening day :)
  10. bean5302
    I felt the same way most other felt. You compared the struggles of a now highly proven, great MLB pitcher who had a lot of struggles in his first MLB opportunity (Berrios) to Festa's struggles leading to 2 presumptions. 1) Any prospect can struggle because Berrios did 2) Any prospect can overcome the struggle because Berrios did <--- this is the part where Berrios gets directly compared to Festa
  11. bean5302
    I'm not ready to completely stick a fork in Festa because there's no need to do that. He'll have 2 more option years. There's also no chance I'd call his number again this year, and I never expect him to be good in an MLB rotation. He's got to find a 3rd MLB caliber pitch because he has an average fastball since it only has vertical movement, and a good slider. My rotation depth chart looks like this: Boushley > Matthews (NR) > Dobnak (NR) > Varland > Morris (NR) > Festa at the moment. @KirbyDome89 is dead on with his assessment about Berrios' performance in the minors. Berrios was consistently dominant and he was a universal top 30 prospect. #19 for MLB. #12 for Fangraphs, etc before he dominated AAA in 2016. Day in, day out. Berrios (a22) had only 3 starts in 17 AAA (18%) appearances where his FIP was north of 4.04 with none over 5.29. His final 4 starts before call up? 4 GS, 28.0 IP (7.0 avg), 2.25 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 12.86 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. Festa's been a Fangraphs velo darling who's flirted with top 100 status in some circles despite never being all that great of a results pitcher. Like Jim Hoey, though, a 100mph straight ball is still something MLB hitters will crush. Comparing Festa's a24 second go 'round in AAA season to Berrios' age 22 season. 14 GS 59.2 IP (4.1 avg), with 7 games (50%) having an FIP of 4.27 or higher, and 4 which were 6.27+. His last 4 starts? 20.2 IP (avg 5.0), 5.66 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 13.12 K/9, 3.62 BB/9. The two prospects weren't remotely similar. Berrios had multiple plus to plus-plus pitches and great control. He was an elite prospect with consistently dominant performances. Festa has none of that.
  12. bean5302
    Not with another year on his contract and and a solid history out of the 'pen. Maeda's velocity is down again this year. That doesn't play well for him. He needs that FB averaging 91-92 to be great. That said, he's given them about 50% solid starts this year, and some blow ups as well. They're only paying him back end rotation money so it's not that bad.
  13. bean5302
    I don't agree with him earning the promotion. He got the promotion because it was time to check him out against MLB hitters, not because he forced his way onto the roster. Festa was highly inconsistent with a lot of red flags with the Saints. Unlike Woods-Richardson, though, Festa's stuff just didn't play. Unfortunately for Festa, I don't think he was auditioning for next year or some point in the future. In my opinion, Paddack was probably slated to go to the bullpen if Festa pitched well, and the very rare opportunity wasn't capitalized. I say the opportunity was so rare because it represented potentially the second permanent shift in the depth chart, sending a MiLB to supplant a veteran. Varland lost his job to SWR, and Paddack could very well have lost his job to Festa. The best news for the Twins is they've now seen Varland and Festa in the rotation, and they should have a good feel for the likelihood they'll be able to count on those guys as rotation depth for the future. My opinion is a solid "no." There are other options in the MiLB system like Matthews and Morris who are already in the upper minors and seeing their stock rise fast with consistent domination.
  14. bean5302
    Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered at the end of the year so there's no worry about seeing him in the lineup next year. Larnach isn't ideal as a planned every day starter, though he's not a black hole at probably a 1.0-1.5 WAR kinda guy. While the article talks about him improving his approach vs. breaking/offspeed stuff, as the sample size grows, it looks a lot more like he's only changed his approach rather than improving the results. Out of options for next year, Larnach could be traded. Emmanuel Rodriguez probably has home as a starter in the outfield this time next year. I can only guess the article expects Jose Miranda to be the DH since Julien is the starting 1B. I'm not sure about Julien's future outlook as he's so redundant at this point. I'd be a little surprised if the Twins sold low on him before the trade deadline, but I don't think Julien has a good path back to regular playing time right now having been soundly leapfrogged by Lee so if Julien rebounds and finds his power stroke, I could see the Twins trading him. Constructing a roster with what the Twins have in their system right now: C - Jeffers 1B - Miranda 2B - Lee 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Rodriguez CF - Buxton RF - Wallner DH - Severino BC - Vazquez UI - Castro UO - Larnach UO - Martin
  15. bean5302
    I'd suggest an end to the Trevor Bauer discussion in the thread. People are almost exclusively divided into two highly passionate camps so it's just going to devolve into a thread war. I think the Twins do have a glaring and obvious need when it comes to playoff viability. That's an ace. They don't have one. They need one if they're planning to advance significantly in the playoffs.
  16. bean5302
    I've already seen all I need to see with Festa for a while. The Tigers are not a good hitting ball club and they just destroyed what he was offering. Festa also struggled against the Diamondbacks. It's easy to back up the eye test with pitch info. Festa does not have great control, his changeup is 30 grade, a show me pitch, really. Festa was able to get AAA hitters out with an average MLB caliber fastball and a very good slider, but the changeup is honestly just batting practice at the MLB level. Festa's getting ahead in the count with a 60-70% first pitch strike rate, and he's throwing a ton of strikes (too many), but his stuff just doesn't fool MLB hitters.
  17. bean5302
    I don't believe it's at all luck related for Royce at this point. It might be something modifiable, but the sheer glut of injuries he accumulates would require some astronomical odds.
  18. bean5302
    Dobnak is a sunk cost for next year at $3MM, but it's clear he's terribly far down the depth chart. Festa (40 man) > Varland (40 man) > Boushley (40 man) > Dobnak is how I'd rate the starter priority. The biggest issue with Dobnak wasn't necessarily his performance, but his time on the IL. He made 26 starts and 31 appearances last year, and he's been durable again this year, on pace for 150 innings or so. I don't think a PTBNL or a 20-30 org prospect is an overpay for Dobnak at his $3MM considering the team options which come with him. I agree with you the Rockies would likely be a very good fit for him, and given he's only under contract through next year (without exercising options), I think he's to the point where the sunk costs are largely evaporated so the Twins should be interested in moving him.
  19. bean5302
    Nope. Not currently. Way back in the day there were a few in Cuba, and within the last 20 years, Canada. I think the Blue Jays' A+ team is the only one which operates outside the US right now. Aside from the DSL stuff, anyway.
  20. bean5302
    The adductor strains generally take 3-6 weeks to heal up. Given how the team handles him, Royce is probably out until after the trade deadline. Makes sense to call up Lee, with Julien still struggling at AAA. Yes, I'm aware Julien is technically above average production down there thanks to a .462 OBP, but he has absolutely zero power. Has literally 1 extra base hit in his last 13 games (a double). Clearly, that's not going to cut it with his profile at the MLB level.
  21. bean5302
    Yep, getting absolutely insane with the Royce Lewis injury train at this point.
  22. bean5302
    I have to be honest, Dobnak has earned an opportunity somewhere. I don't think he's going to get it with the Twins, but he's probably a serviceable #5 for somebody right now. Since he's not on the 40 man, and he can't choose MiLB free agency next year without forfeiting his $3MM 2025 contract if he does, it's a bad spot for him. Boushley has kind of occupied Dobnak's position, taking over the veteran depth starter role on the 40 man. Elite ground ball rate, and solid at preventing home runs this year, Dobnak has elevated his K rate (at the cost of more walks). His 3.91 ERA is well above average in the International League, ranking 28th of 103 pitchers with 40+ innings this year and a 4.74 ERA median. Given his MLB experience, hopefully, Dobber gets a chance. He's under team control through 2028 for cheap if the team picks up his 2026 - $6MM, 2027 - $7MM, 2028 - $8.5MM. If he can serve as a back end rotation arm somewhere, it's likely those options are picked up.
  23. bean5302
    Can they redesignate a pitcher as a position player, call them up as a position player and still let them pitch in games that are out of control? LOL, I think they'd probably be able to get away with that...
  24. bean5302
    Severino - .425/.544/.688 OPS 1.231 wRC+ 216, 20.4% BB, 18.4% K 23G, 103 PA, 15G above wRC+ 100, RBI = 19 Wallner - .324/.403/.724 OPS 1.127, wRC+ 179, 10.9% BB, 27.7% K 26G, 119 PA, 17G above wRC+ 100, RBI = 28 Wallner has the home runs and a huge RBI advantage with a bunch of games where he carried the win, but the hitter of the month should have gone to Severino. Severino is slowly bringing his overall line into respectability.
  25. bean5302
    Line drives have a .675 BABIP Fly balls have a .250 BABIP Ground balls have a .200 BABIP Hit a lot of line drives and your BABIP is much higher.
×
×
  • Create New...