bean5302
-
Posts
7,577 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
36
Content Type
Profiles
Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by bean5302
-
This is a false dilemma. There are other baseball players who are not part of the Twins organization who would make pre-arb money.
-
That's why you have cheap pre-arb guys and guys under team control. Going out and signing free agents to multi-million dollar contracts who are expected to drag on playoff team potential when a team is on a severe budget crunch is nonsensical. It does sometimes work out of course, like Carlos Santana putting up a year nobody expected. Normally, the outcome is more like Tim Anderson.
-
DaShawn Keirsey had a really nice year last year in AAA apart from one bad month as I recall. The Twins do not seem to trust him, and they probably shouldn't trust him. They might play him if they have a roster crunch, but Keirsey hasn't shown a track record suggesting he's anything to rely upon. I expect he's 2024's Anthony Prato, and Keirsey will turn back into a pumpkin next year.
-
Sure, there are a ton of them who "blossom" since prime is generally ages 27-29, but rarely do you see a player debut after age 25 and ever be successful.
-
I'd like you to provide your analysis which the Twins could duplicate on this. It would be pretty interesting since more players accumulated 500+ PA while actively playing SS than playing any other position in baseball. CF is right in line with RF or LF as well.
-
Buxton's Contract was for 7yrs $105MM. The current value of the contract was like 60% more than Edman got. It's never been about Buxton's contract, it's about an overall payroll which has 5 guys eating up 75% of the capacity so the Twins have got $30-40MM to sign 21 other players.
-
0.5 bWAR for a full time position player = negative value. That's the kind of guy you can replace with AAA guys or MiLB free agents. I will continue to maintain that signing full time position guys who are expected to contribute substantially less than 2.0 WAR is foolhardy. A team needs about 2.5 WAR from each position player, 2.0 WAR from each rotation arm, and 0.5 WAR from bullpen and backup positions to have a good chance at the playoffs. When you bring in players like Mark Cahna, it puts pressure on everybody else. If the Twins need the payroll space, they need to trade for a right handed outfielder who provides more value, and somebody who can cover CF.
-
So broken. They're just throwing a whole kitchen sink full of questionable variables at it. I'm just going to stick with not trusting it. Berrios being worth dramatically less than Nola doesn't work for me.
-
Why in the world would Castro take a deal like you're proposing when Tommy Edman just got 5yrs $74MM? The deal includes a massive signing bonus of $17MM and is structured similar to this. 2025 - $25.0MM ($8MM + 17.0MM) 2026 - $8.0MM 2027 - $8.0MM 2028 - $8.0MM 2029 - $8.0MM 2030 - $13.0MM Club Option ($3.0MM buyout) -------------------------------------------------------- Deferrals 2031 2032 2033 2034 - $2.5MM 2035 - $2.5MM 2036 - $2.5MM 2037 - $2.5MM 2038 - $2.5MM 2039 - $2.5MM 2040 - $2.5MM 2041 - $2.5MM 2042 - $2.5MM 2043 - $2.5MM
-
Yeah, probably broken like it was a few years ago with BR's positional adjustments being double counted in their metrics. 2.2 vs 3.6 WAR is enormous for the same results. Using RA/9 + some broken DRS adjustment might make a big difference. It could be Daulton Varsho who was credited with a broken +28 defensive runs saved last year. I don't know exactly how BR is doing their WAR adjustment, but it's not trustworthy IMHO.
-
Zebby was under 50 IP, but he lost rookie status by 3 days. 48 days on the MLB roster so I'm pretty sure he's ineligible. I'd rank these guys as #1 Rodriguez. #2 Keaschall, #3 Raya, #4 Jenkins, #5 Olivar. Gotta make the big show first, but then have to potentially provide enough value/playing time to get noticed.
- 25 replies
-
- 4
-
-
-
- luke keaschall
- andrew morris
- (and 4 more)
-
It might use RA 9 as a component, but there are major adjustments I don't understand. Jose Berrios ERA 3.60, ERA+ 112, RA9 3.70, 192.1 IP = 2.2 bWAR Aaron Nola ERA 3.57, ERA+ 114, RA 9, 3.79, 199.1 IP = 3.6 bWAR As far as I'm concerned Baseball Reference has some issues in WAR calculation.
-
The Twins are 100% committed to it now. They tendered Castro a contract so it's now fully guaranteed. I don't see any reason for Castro to agree to substantially less than the $6.2MM estimated by MLBTR for his arbitration value. It's not like a few years ago where teams could screw players over by agreeing to a contract without actually going to arbitration only to release the player before the start of the season to get out of the contract. That makes trading him, before spring when he still has value, the likeliest outcome under your assumption. If Castro winds up getting injured in normal daily life, the Twins are stuck with him. It's a risky game they're playing.
-
Especially Brian Duensing!
-
People around here talking about Kepler like he was Manny Margot or something. fWAR & bWAR 2016 = 2.0 & 2.4 2017 = 1.8 & 1.9 2018 = 2.4 & 3.5 2019 = 3.9 & 4.0 2020* = 2.9 & 2.6 2021 = 2.2 & 2.1 2022 = 1.5 & 2.1 2023 = 2.8 & 2.9 2024 = 1.0 & 1.0 *162/62 x WAR Kepler has averaged 2.1 fWAR and 2.5 bWAR per season for the last 9 years. Last year was the worst season of his career, and also the most injury shortened. Worst case scenario, he looks like a 1.5 WAR player. I think Kepler will probably be viewed like Wil Myers was in the 2022-2023 offseason, but without the negative connotations associated with an albatross contract. Myers got 1 year and $7.5MM from the Reds.
-
I mean, Punto did have that 1 good year back in 2006.
-
It's not ridiculous. A 3 WAR player is going to make about $18MM AAV. Edman's age does make the 5 years a bit long, but the total money means it's a great deal. I'm assuming Edman wanted more total money than AAV. The value is in the team control here. Castro's overall value for 1 year at $6MM will be significant, but I don't think Falvey has the skill necessary to make the tender/trade work based on his history.
-
Not what happened. You stated a borderline HoF career (similar to the 14yr, 129 OPS+ career Bobby Bonds had) would be a a disappointment for Walker Jenkins. Rather than admitting how far out there your position was, you deflected by saying Bobby Allison, who only played in 1,500 games in his career, was a better comp for 15yrs at 124 OPS+. Of course even implying that a 35 WAR career would be a disappointment is unreasonable in a vacuum. 35 WAR careers are rare (top 3-4% in MLB history). Only 7 position players have ever accumulated more than the 34 WAR Bobby Allison accumulated in a Twins uniform. Carew, Killebrew, Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, Knoblauch. If Walker Jenkins turns into a career 25 WAR player like Max Kepler, he'll be an enormous success. I don't have a problem with people hoping for Juan Soto (who has more WAR than Ted Williams or Babe Ruth or Cal Ripken, Jr. through age 25), but those dreams aren't backed up in any kind of rationality. Jenkins' track record doesn't compare well with HoF type players.
-
Spotrac MV 3yrs $31MM ESPN Est. 2yrs $24MM MLBTR = 1yr Below $8MM Mets - It seems a popular speculation around here for 2024 Twins players who weren't good to end up in NY because the Mets can afford to spend, but the Mets can afford to spend on good players. Why would they spend on guys like Paddack or Kepler when they don't need to bottom feed? Mariners - Already have a veteran corner OF in Arozarena. Can't see them choosing Kep over the cheaper, and just as good (or better) Victor Robles. Rockies - Are cutting salary so I can't see them signing Kepler, though Coors would be a great place for Kepler to rebound. Marlins - No idea about this club, but it doesn't feel like a good fit on the surface. Nobody wants to play for them, that much I'd bet money on. The owner, Bruce Sherman, is busy talking about tech and development expenditures and downplaying free agency. Historically, the Marlins are not free agent spenders. Their biggest FA contract ever was $53MM, and they've only handed out a $10MM+ contract 4 times in team history. I think Kepler is going to have to settle for a 1 year deal to get into the $10MM+ AAV range. I think the Royals are a good candidate to sign him. The Royals need a corner OF with at least a league average bat, and they have some payroll flexibility. Kepler should rebound to a solid 2 WAR season and meet their needs.
-
Bobby Bonds was literally in the link I posted in the comment you quoted. Bobby Bonds. Career OPS+ 129. 14 years played. 57.8 career WAR. Borderline HoF.
-
Colorado (43%) also had the 8th highest ground ball rate and the worst WHIP (1.52), much higher than the Twins' 27th ranked (39%) and 7th ranked WHIP (1.23). The Rockies put a ton more people on base than the Twins did, and since the Rockies had the 26th ranked number of BB's issued (563) vs. the Twins' 3rd best (433). Tons of those extra base runners were on 1B where lots of grounders meant more double plays could be made. It's not that Brendan Rodgers is necessarily a defensive stud so to speak, but he gets a ton of opportunities. Apart from one year, his DRS has been negative, his UZR/150 is just a bit above average and his OAA is negative. FIP is a pretty old stat. It doesn't care about batted ball data, park factors or anything else, really. HR, BB, Strikeouts. Everything else is neutral. The Twins' front office invests heavily in pitching strategy and batted ball tendencies. I use fWAR a lot because it's Fangraphs' data is much easier for me to sort through than Baseball Reference's stuff. Also, I don't understand Baseball Reference's pitcher WAR calculation. I thought it was based on ERA or ERA+, but it's not.
-
You think it would be disappointing to have a Walker Jenkins turn into a 60 career WAR borderline HoF player??? That's the kind of career Bobby Bonds had. Duuuuuuude... He'd be in the discussion of greatest Minnesota Twins player in history if he never left the Twins. The only players to ever significantly play for the Twins who would definitely be better are Bert Blyleven and Rod Carew. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsbo01.shtml
-
As soon as one of them puts up a 5 WAR season while still pre-arb eligible...
-
No. It wasn't. Rooker did not refine his approach with coaches. If you read his interviews, he makes it clear it was him and his hitting style. Confidence was the issue. His desired approach and swing did not really change much.
-
I never thought much of Larnach or Kirilloff.
