bean5302

Formed this opinion in April and just kept riding it, right? Here are the series results for the Twins when facing off against likely playoff teams. The Twins are 7-4 in series' against playoff caliber teams since the beginning of May. KCR - W MIL - T CLE - L LAD - L BAL - L May BOS - W SEA - W NYY - L CLE - L KCR - W June HOU - W NYY - L ARI - W SEA - W July HOU - W MIL - L PHI - TBD

Pablo Lopez is the starter the Twins should trade away. The Twins can part with Walker Jenkins to bring in a stud multi-year cost controlled starter to replace Lopez's #2 status or better. Kirilloff shouldn't be traded because he has negative value. He'll be non-tendered. The Twins will also need to move Vazquez by trading prospect value. Paddack definitely needs to go. The Twins should be able to move him for a minimal return due to his low salary (relative). Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are going to be expensive, even as Arb 1. I'd figure $5MM for Ryan and $4MM for Ober.

You should stick to virtue signaling and/or personal or political ideology arguments on Bauer. He was slightly better than Imanaga (2.76 vs. 2.80 ERA) despite Bauer shaking off 2 years of rust for the first couple games in that league. After that rough start, Bauer was lights out better than Imanaga, who has been dominant for the Cubs this year owning a near identical ERA in MLB as he owned with the Bay Stars. I'd be shocked if Bauer was signed by the Twins. It'd be a great move, though, if the ownership really is screwing the fans and the front office with a hard payroll cap. When you need to find ways to win and ownership is telling you to do it without normal resources, you get creative. Just like Moneyball with the A's bringing in Jeremy Giambi as a sort of talented problem child, accurate or not to reality. I feel like maybe the Twins would want to write in a few stipulations (note for Dave St. Peter and the Pohlad family, writing in some limitations like your ability to pull agreements say, if half the service provided winds up being unfulfilled like with Bally Sports North). If ownership has a problem with it, you throw them under the bus publicly. If everybody is suggesting Falvey should leave and all the other teams want him, it's the right move if done the right way.

Lopez owns a 4.86 ERA right now. 9 Quality Starts in 20 games. Ryan has been terrible in the 2nd half of each year of his career. His last 5 games he owns a 5.34 ERA. 11 Quality Starts in 20 games. Simeon Woods Richardson. The xFIP and SIERA scare me a little. 6 QS in 17 games, though Rocco "quick hook" Baldelli has something to do with that. Woods Richardson is the kind of pitcher who could slot into a playoff rotation. Bailey Ober is not one of the guys you want in the top of the playoff order 1-3 guys, but he's not the worst #4 option. What the Twins are missing is the guy who is supposed to slot in at #1. Having 2 #4's and 2 #3s isn't how we get to 4 playoff rotation arms.

Duran I was talking about it with fans at the game. Splitter, splitter, splitter, curve. Splitter, splitter, splitter, curve. Splitter, splitter, splitter, curve.

Sorry I didn't make that clear enough. The fact a fielder who is very good at positioning gets dinged for it vs. a player who positions terribly, but makes up for some of it with athleticism gets rewarded is the greatest flaw in OAA. It's why I feel OAA is the worst metric to use on its own; it doesn't tell you what actually happened, and whether or not a fielder's play results in more real outs than average. It's probably also a big reason why OAA is the least reliable metric with the greatest swings from year to year.

MLBTR is reporting the F.O. is suggesting there is essentially zero payroll flexibility for the Twins like many folks have commented on this site where I've poo-pooed such comments as being overly dramatic. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/twins-reportedly-working-with-payroll-limitations-at-trade-deadline.html I've emailed my Twins season ticket rep and let them know ownership decisions may very well decide if I "right size" my attendance next year.

Blake Snell got a $150MM offer he passed on last year. He's going to get an offer far above $30MM. $125MM is probably the floor. There's only 1 legitimate way Snell is picking up the $30MM option, and that's if he's going to miss the whole 2025 season.

Snell throws a lot of balls and walks quite a few guys, but he owns a career 3.31 ERA and 3.46 FIP, is left handed, and can completely dominate even good teams. Snell entered the season without any spring training, signing with the Giants on March 20th. Snell was aggressive at being part of the rotation right away, and his overconfidence simulated games were equivalent to game action really showed. I wouldn't be interested in Snell if he were still pitching like Montgomery was. He's now looking like the potentially elite arm the Twins need, and the Twins should be aggressive at acquiring him. The Giants have hinted it'd be valuable to them to get Snell off the books for future luxury tax reasons, and Snell's struggles out of the gate and lingering risk of the $30MM player option should keep his value lower. If the Twins can't make this type of deal, I'll be hoping it's Falvey's last year here.

While I agree Falvey botched the offseason going back to quantity over quality, what were you expecting the Twins to add? The Twins essentially added Farmer, Margot, Santana, Topa, Jackson, Okert, Desclafani, and Staumont off the top of my head. They were fairly active this offseason, they just didn't make the right moves IMHO. The payroll was right around where people expected after November's announcement. $125-135MM.

It depends on how valuable you view Royce Lewis. It depends on 3 things. Control years. Expected performance. Expected future salary. Zac Gallen for Eddie Julien straight up would be about right by Baseballtradevalues. I'd make that trade all day every day, but the Diamondback's GM just said they expect to be buyers, and they're especially interested in controlled starters. So are the Dodgers and some other teams out there. The Twins are probably in a better spot looking for rentals due to the future payroll considerations with Correa, Lopez and Buxton eating up $70MM on their own next year.

It's sample size, luck, and defensive shift changes. xwOBA is like a more wide reaching stat than something like BABIP. Consider it ERA vs FIP, but a bit more advanced. Maybe like ERA vs SIERA. 2024 wOBA vs xwOBA Correa = .383 vs .362 Castro = .343 vs .331 Buxton = .354 vs .330 Miranda = .379 vs .345 Santana = .332 vs .326 Jeffers = .339 vs .322 Lewis = .430 vs .400 Kepler = .311 vs .308 Julien = .305 vs .298 Larnach = .330 vs .353 Lee = .297 vs .304 Wallner = .351 vs .313 Vazquez = .225 vs .249 Farmer = .256 vs .277 While you can see a single season variance, especially with this just being a little more than half season so far, seeing a trend where xwOBA diverges substantially from actual wOBA isn't common. When it comes to defensive metrics, they're measuring totally different things. OAA replaces the actual player with a fictional, hypothetically average fielder with average reflexes, average, acceleration, average speed and an average arm. Then it simulates what would have happened if the hypothetical fielder was asked to make the play vs. what actually happened, but positioning and instincts can make enormous differences in the outcome of a play. DRS and UZR are pretty similar. They use IDENTICAL datasets. They section the field into zones, then assign positions to their expected zones. The metrics give bonus modifiers for making a difficult play or botching a routine play, but UZR limits the modifier while DRS does not. UZR also uses scorers to report when shifts are employed and it throws that data out. DRS separates batted ball data more aggressively, but it separates the data sets so much you wind up with super SSSS which might sit at the edges of statistically relevant. Basically, UZR is steadier, but it might blend a bit too much while DRS is less steady, but subject to additional error. RF/9 says fielders of position x are involved in the making of outs y times. If a fielder is involved in more or less outs than league average, they're better or worse than league average. It's vulnerable to shifts like the Twins employed so frequently because it increases the rate at which some fielders are involved in plays.

I'm not alone in that the likelihood I renew season tickets for next year may well hinge on the Twins' trade deadline moves to add a legitimate playoff rotation arm. Another solid start from Blake Snell last night. He's the guy the Twins should be targeting. Not a career #4-5 guy. Snell's on a $15MM salary this year, and it's highly likely he opts out of his contract. The Giants are 48-53.

Jose Miranda is better than Carlos Santana. Miranda would have directly replaced Santana's plate appearances. The implication Santana has provided some sort of major lift to the team is looking at his play in a vacuum.

Kikuchi is not a playoff caliber starter. He's never had an ERA below 3.86 in his career. His career ERA is 4.69. His career FIP is 4.64. I'm tired of hearing about him. His sparkly FIP is a total outlier, and there's no way I believe he continues it.

Agreed. Odds are pretty much maximized for a bunt in that situation, especially if the batter has wheels.

Balls and strikes would have to be considered useless using that same thought process. The fact an official scorer occasionally thinks a play is an error where you don't think it is or vice versa doesn't invalidate the entire process. Official scorers are paid MLB employees subject to performance reviews and a complaint review process. The process they use isn't just some fan sitting in a seat somewhere drinking a beer and watching the game.

Your (revised) 20/20 hindsight is operating at 1000% here. Coming into the season, this was the expected bullpen and their 2023 ERAs. Jhoan Duran 2.45 ERA (elite) Brock Stewart 0.65 ERA (elite) Griffin Jax 3.86 ERA (good) +Jay Jackson 2.12 ERA (elite) Caleb Thielbar 3.23 ERA (elite) Kody Funderburk 0.75 ERA (elite) +Justin Topa 2.61 ERA (elite) + Steven Okert 4.45 ERA (poor) It was expected to be a super elite bullpen. Which high priced, FA bullpen arm were you wanting to replace one of our projected 26 man roster guys with that you think ownership's budget restricted the Twins from signing. Depth options were even good as some of the rough ERAs were expected to rebound. + Josh Staumont 5.40 ERA (poor) Jorge Alcala 6.23 ERA (poor) Cole Sands 3.53 ERA (good) +Daniel Duarte 3.69 ERA (good) +Diego Castillo 6.23 ERA (poor) +Matt Bowman 9.00 ERA (poor) The Twins experienced a whole host of injuries to the bullpen through Spring Training and early in the season. Despite that, the Twins' bullpen ranks: 7th of 30 in FIP = 3.69 8th of 30 in ERA = 3.64 Still one of the better bullpens in baseball.

It's not all the defense. Best to worst defense in MLB is like 0.25-0.40 points of ERA. It's serving up meatball sandwiches when guys are on base.

I think error rate is actually very valuable. It's a little fact-check on some of the advanced metrics. Jorge Polanco, for instance. He boots a lot of balls, but depending on the metric, he can be rated highly on defense. Since Polanco doesn't have a strong arm, and he boots a lot of balls, it's a good indication the swoon-y metrics aren't reasonable. Fielding percentage on it's own is not particularly helpful for most positions, and almost useless in some instances. It's not a bad stat, though.

Nice job on the article! Honestly, what I've taken away from this is there's no good reason for Santana to be hitting so well, but there may not have been a good reason for Santana to have looked so poorly in 2020-2022. wOBA vs. xwOBA 2020 255 PA, .316 vs .372 2021 659 PA, .294 vs .335 2022 506 PA, .316 vs .352 3yrs 1420 PA .303 vs .348 -------- 2023 .323 vs .308 <--- Looked cooked. -------- 2024 .328 vs .323 There's every reason to believe Santana's solid production days were behind him. While 2020-2022 paints harshly unlucky results, when you see a pattern that long over that many plate appearances, it's so rarely a coincidence you just have to reset that to the new norm for a player. xwOBA of .348 (2020-2022) would be good for about a wRC+ 120ish, instead he managed an actual wRC+ 91 over that span. Then, last year, his expected numbers tanked to an xwOBA of just .308 at age 37 while his actual numbers reversed some of what appeared to be "bad luck" in the previous years. If you blend everything together, you get a player who is definitely in the twilight of their career, but Santana may be able to sustain close to this level of overall production through 2024. I think he'll regress a bit, yet, but he may be able to put up a slightly better than league average season at the plate. Using OAA on it's own isn't a good practice, IMHO. It's the worst possible defensive metric to use as a standalone and Fangraphs should switch back away from it ASAP. It's wildly inconsistent, and it's more like a video game "what if" simulation rather than crediting the player with what they actually produced. By most measures, Santana is a good first baseman, but the defensive metrics are actually split on him. Combining them all together gives the view of Santana being a solid first baseman. DRS = Excellent UZR = Below Average OAA = Excellent RF/9 = Poor

That was a valid argument about 2-3 weeks ago, and I was making it. I can't support it anymore, though. Even if we cherry picked the hardest we possibly could to support him sticking around, it's worth the caveat he's platooned against lefties with nearly 50% of his plate appearances coming against lefties: 3/28-4/26 = 55 PA, .064/.200/.085 OPS .285 wRC+ -11 4/27+ = 96 PA, .259/.344/.365 OPS .709 wRC+ 107 He was starting to slowly rebuild some value, but then the last couple weeks happened. Last 10 games: .136/.208/.182 OPS .390 wRC+ 16 There needs to be a point at which the Twins cut bait on players who increase the odds of losing, and Farmer is reducing the chance the Twins win games, and the metrics say it's not luck related. He's just not hitting the ball well. xwOBA .277, xwOBACon .286. His rolling 100 plate appearance xwOBA shows he hasn't been at or above league average at any time in the past 100 plate appearances.

Ryan has been consistently having "bad luck" over his recent starts. I'm not sure if he's just morphing into his traditional 2nd half Joe Ryan form or if he's copying Pablo Lopez's approach of pitching worse than the numbers say he should be. 6/25 - 6.0 IP, 4 R 6/30 - 5.2 IP, 2 R 7/6 - 5.2 IP, 3 R 7/12 - 5.1 IP, 5 R 7/21 - 6.0 IP 4 R Last 5 starts - 5.65 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.16 xFIP

The Twins literally came into the season with what many expected would compete for the best bullpen in baseball. I don't know what ownership increasing the payroll could have legitimately done to make the Twins' bullpen look better. I get it. Rah rah, only $130MM cheap Pohlad's!!!! Stupid owners! At least attempt to make a valid point when you're going off on ownership.

Lombardozzi visits Gladden, LOL. That's some fun history right there. I wonder how that would play out in modern times? Is that covered under the domestic policy? haha