Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,507

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Lopez = Viola? Viola was as good as Johan Santana in his prime back then, and he put up 8.1 WAR in 1987. Lopez is a fine mid/back end #2 when he has a good season. Blyleven put up 4.4 WAR in 1987 and was close to the Cy Young in 1989 with the Angels. Later career Blyleven was still very good, just not generally elite. Blyleven (ERA+ 115 in 1987) is a good comp for Lopez (ERA+ 117 in 2023), not Viola. No player guarantees victory, but having a strong 1-2 is a huge plus. If the Twins lost Lopez or Ryan without making a move, they'd almost certainly be a one and done team IMHO.
  2. bean5302
    It's been 4 years since Snell was pitching in the AL East. In 2020, this was the Twins team: SP1 Berrios, SP2 Maeda, SP3 Dobnak, SP4 Hill, SP5 Pineda Cl - Rogers, RP2 - Clippard, RP3 - Duffey, RP4 - May, RP5 - Alcala, RP6 - Romo, RP7 - Thielbar C - Garver, Jeffers 1B - Sano, 2B - Arraez, 3B - Donaldson, SS - Polanco LF - Rosario, CF - Buxton, RF - Kepler DH - Cruz Util - Cave, Gonzalez, Adrianza 5 of the 25 people on that team remain on the Twins 26 man/40 man. With so much turnover, I don't know as the teams would be the same, but I suppose the stadiums would be.
  3. bean5302
    If he did, he'd have an extension, and he wouldn't be on the lame duck status. GMs getting to their final year = hot seat. Joe Pohlad basically stated the Twins needed to be advancing in the playoffs. That was the new bar right now.
  4. bean5302
    It comes down to a couple things IMHO. 1. The AL Central does not look like it's going to be AAAA level anymore. 2. Playoff appearances are far from guaranteed even in a weak division (2021-2022 for example). 3. Playoffs are different from the regular season because you only face the best starters. Fangraphs talked about the value of wins in an article. Wins aren't worth the same to all teams. A 60 win team getting to 61 wins is not the same as a 89 win team getting to 90 wins in terms of value. It's not what an ace does for you over the course of the regular season. It's what they do for you in the playoffs. 1987 - The Twins weren't a great team, but they did have 2 very strong starters. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven. 1991 - The Twins were a good team and they had Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson leading the rotation. Having 2 great starters, and even better if you have a 3rd very good pitcher, makes it so much more likely to win a playoff series when a single run has such a huge impact on the outcome of winning percentage when it's critical. It's also worth noting. What happens if Ryan or Lopez goes down? Does the rotation still have the oomph it needs to be competitive in the playoffs?
  5. bean5302
    Fairly different scenario. Mahle was a guy producing back end arm numbers who the F.O. thought would be a mid rotation guy away from Great American Ballpark. He came with multiple years of team control and a cheap salary. Falvey is on the final year of his contract, and he was put on notice last year that expectations were raised. If the Twins miss the playoffs, it seems unlikely Falvey keeps his job. If the Twins fail to advance in the playoffs, it's pretty questionable Falvey keeps his job. There's a lot of reason to be aggressive here.
  6. bean5302
    The player option doesn't hurt anybody that badly, though. 2024 - $5MM remaining --------------------------------------- 2025 - $15MM (player option) 2026 - $17MM signing bonus, non-transferable SF has to pay 2027 - $15MM deferred from 2025. The acquiring team only has to pay $15MM for Snell in 2025, skips 2026, then has to pay $15MM in 2027 deferred. It's an easy player option to absorb.
  7. bean5302
    Prielipp turns 24 in January. Not sure what his inning limits will look like, but I doubt he'd be able to be a full time starter prior to 2026. I think the Twins will probably try to keep him a starter. Maybe 40 innings this year?
  8. bean5302
    I don't think depth is a concern for the Twins. They're an incredibly deep team, IMHO. The issue is the top of the rotation, as has been the case seemingly almost forever outside of last year.
  9. bean5302
    I suspect the Giants are A) holding out till the last minute to make a decision on selling B) holding out for the best offer. Snell may wind up with the Yankees since they were all-in on him this past offseason. The thing is, it won't take much for the Twins to beat any even mostly unreasonable offer. So they should frigging beat the offer.
  10. bean5302
    The term "quality start" originates from the idea the start gives the team a good chance to win the game, and that origin dates back to 1985 where pitchers routinely went 7-8 innings and 6 innings was a short outing. When allowing 3 runs, 6 innings vs 7-8 innings actually makes a huge impact on game outcomes as the bullpen wouldn't be expected to give up a run in 1-2 innings, though they would be expected to give one up over 3 innings, statistically. If you need 4 runs to win the game, the team will win 60% of the time. If you need 5 runs to win the game, the team wins 40% of the time. I tend to view starts of 5 innings or more with an ERA of under 4.00 as "quality" in my book in the current time frame. So while Joe Ryan totally earned a "quality start" the 3 runs in 6 innings didn't give the Twins a great chance to win the game, though it wasn't a bad start by any means, either.
  11. bean5302
    Seriously, though. Every pitcher is going to have a rough day now and again. Matthews' FIP was 4.76, standing at the highest value it's been all year long. Thanks in part to a .533 BABIP, the 9.00 ERA was pretty unsightly.
  12. bean5302
    Blake Snell is the target for the Twins. No other player makes more sense to turn the Twins into a real World Series competitor. Snell, Lopez, Ryan, Woods Richardson with Ober as a 5th starter for a long series if needed. That should hopefully be a rotation stronger than last year's come playoff time. With a shift away from the super strikeout prone lineup last year, the Twins have more steady run production as well.
  13. bean5302
    Falvey is pretty notorious for waiting too long in the offseason. Just have to see what he does at the deadline.
  14. bean5302
    Really tough to gauge what Blake Snell is worth. Baseballtradevalues has Blake Snell as 0.4 surplus which is nothing. Like PTBNL, but that isn't accurate at all. Honestly, I think a 6-10 prospect gets Snell. Maybe a couple 11-20s. He shouldn't be that expensive, especially with SF itching to get him off the books.
  15. bean5302
    Fangraphs shows Randy Dobnak has 3 MiLB options remaining. He got a 4th option year since he accrued so little time.
  16. bean5302
    I think Funderburk and Kirilloff could both be activated a couple weeks before the 60 day time period, and artificially forcing players onto the 60 day IL gets the MLBPA worked up. Since MLB has started to crack down on Phantom IL stuff, it's risky as well.
  17. bean5302
    I don't have any problems with trading him if the Twins won't use him, though I would prefer the Twins trading 2 starters out of the rotation this offseason so Dobnak is good depth. MLB teams might want to get that peek at Dobnak at the MLB level before they'd be interested though. It's a real interesting scenario.
  18. bean5302
    Not. Even. Close. The small advantage (if any advantage at all should Miranda see regular playing time at 1B) in WAR for Santana's defense over Miranda's is not worth the better bat Miranda brings. Jose Miranda has all of 50 innings played at 1B the last 2 years. Santana is a switch hitter, but the only side he can actually hit well is from the right side against lefties. He's been below league average against righties in recent years. Miranda hits both righties and lefties.
  19. bean5302
    I think it depends on whether or not they get a Chris Sale style haul for him, and whether or not Detroit feels they're going to be competitive in the next year. This year has been a little disappointing for them so far. Trading Skubal seems pretty far fetched to me as well.
  20. bean5302
    It's a "quality start" in name only. ERA 4.50 isn't all that "quality" over only 6.0 innings since you'd expect an additional run to be scored against a bullpen in the next 3 innings. Meaning the team the QS pitcher plays for is likely going to need to score at least 5 runs to win, which is less than 50% odds. Also, I don't know why people keep bringing up WPA. There have to be at least 100 comments explaining how it works at this point. It's basically a more advanced "clutch" stat. When Joe Ryan entered the game, the Twins had x% chance of winning. When he left the game, the Twins had y% chance of winning (lower than when Ryan entered so it's a negative value).
  21. bean5302
    You don't think an MLB team would take this ultra team friendly contract on? 2024 - $2.25MM 2025 - $3.00MM 2026 - $6.00MM Club Option 2027 - $7.00MM Club Option 2028 - $8.50MM Club Option If Dobnak were recalled and added to the 40 man roster and he pitched well in his start, I don't think there's a chance in hell he makes it through waivers after the season he's had. There are middle relievers making that kind of bank. If Dobnak can manage being a back end rotation arm by keeping his ERA in the 4.50 range, he'd be at least a $10MM AAV. Kyle Gibson got $13MM this past offseason and even Sean Manea got $14MM AAV on a 2 year deal.
  22. bean5302
    Are you talking about Festa's two starts where he was obviously desperately trying to avoid walks? Festa hasn't had a BB/9 below 3.71 in the high minors. The issue with Festa is he doesn't have control over his pitches so if he really wants to avoid a walk, he has to aim his pitch too deep into the strike zone to be sure it doesn't miss wide. Matthews supposedly has the control necessary to aim exactly where he wants to deliver the pitch, and be close to his specific target, more like Greg Maddux's philosophy of pitch placement. There have been other Twins pitchers in the past who focused on pinpoint control like Kevin Slowey, but Slowey lived on mediocre stuff which had to hit the exact spots. Matthews is a 5 pitch pitcher throwing upper 90s, plus tight control. Getting K's without BB's and without allowing runs means Matthews is putting the ball where it needs to be placed, and his stuff should be at least solid. The real question about Matthews is just how good his stuff actually is. Scouting reports are a bit mixed, as expected since he hasn't honestly been a big name until just recently. MLB & Fangraphs Fastball = 55 & 55 Cutter = 55 & N/A Slider* = 45 & 60 Curve = 40 & N/A Changeup = 40 & 40 *also called sweeper 80 is ultra elite 70 is plus-plus 60 is a bone fide plus 50 is MLB average 40 is below average 30 is AAA caliber
  23. bean5302
    Fangraphs retroactively adjusted their fWARs. OAA wasn't even available on Fangraphs until 2022. 3/31/22 - (OAA now available on Fangraphs) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcast-oaa-is-now-available-on-fangraphs/ 4/21/22 - (UZR component replaced with RAA/OAA) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/
  24. bean5302
    Matthews and Morris are looking great. I think Zebby has to be a no-doubter top 100 guy at this point. Certainly ahead of Festa IMHO. Varland shouldn't be viewed as a starter anymore. I'd love to see Matthews at the MLB level over Festa, but going into the postseason without an ace hoping a guy like Matthews could be that out of the gate is foolhardy.
  25. bean5302
    I do think Dobnak has earned his way back into an MLB rotation. I talked about it a few weeks ago. Even going back to the start of May, Dobnak owns a 2.80 ERA in 74.0 IP, though his FIP looked quite a bit rougher until June. I think it's tough to find a spot in the rotation for him since the front office has apparently decided to roll with David Festa who is on the 40 man. Festa hasn't been great in AAA, but at least showed some potential against the Phillies with an adequate underlying performance that churned out great results.
×
×
  • Create New...