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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    So what if the Twins don't make any more moves? With the current roster, the team constructed as-is looks about like this in my opinion. If the Twins finish 4th in the AL Central at 84 wins, it was a heck of a division, which might wind up being the case. Obviously, opinions can vary, but ask yourself whether or not you'd bet money on being off my more than +/- 0.5 WAR on these estimates for likely (mid-range) WAR at the end of the season, and whether or not your differing expectations offset each other. First Last Mid WAR Ryan Jeffers 1.8 Jose Miranda 1.8 Royce Lewis 3.0 Carlos Correa 4.0 Willi Castro 2.5 Trevor Larnach 1.5 Byron Buxton 3.0 Matt Wallner 2.5 Edouard Julien 1.0 Christian Vazquez 0.5 DaShawn Keirsey 0.0 Austin Martin 0.0 Brooks Lee 1.0 Pablo Lopez 3.2 Joe Ryan 2.3 Bailey Ober 2.3 David Festa 1.8 Simeon WR 1.0 Jhoan Duran 1.5 Griffin Jax 1.5 Jorge Alcala 0.8 Cole Sands 0.8 Brock Stewart 0.8 Kody Funderburk 0.0 Louie Varland 0.5 Ronny Henriquez 0.0 Replacement 45 39.1 84 84 wins is the expected total. The team is "probably" an over .500 ballclub. Spotrac projects $138.6MM for the Twins' payroll at the moment which is good for 17th in MLB, just behind Baltimore and Seattle, and a tick above St. Louis. Twins fan attendance was 23rd in MLB last year.
  2. bean5302
    Alonso is going to struggle to get much over $100MM in my opinion. The rumor was the Mets have chopped their offer from the 6/150 extension offer they made last year to 3/90 with player opt outs after each season most recently. The Giants have also been tied to Alonso, and the perennially bad idea Angels are mulling a run at him as well. Alonso is this year's Boras fail, I think.
  3. bean5302
    I think 2020's flop has highlighted 2019's poor results as well. Thank goodness for Matt Wallner, otherwise the Twins aren't going to see any value from their 2019 selections, either. 2019 was okay as was 2018. An average team needs 3+ hits per draft, and no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.
  4. bean5302
    The point is other teams had picks which are already producing MLB value. The fact the Twins might get something from their draft picks to help them out of the doldrums is good, but the fact they now need those picks to work out to avoid looking bad is not.
  5. bean5302
    Larnach? I'll just link my other post on the other 15-20 topic. When it comes to Larnach, his ceiling is higher than it was, but that ceiling is still just a 2 WAR left fielder, and he's already arb eligible. Larnach's effort amounted to just 1.5 fWAR in 112 games last year. Given Larnach's lengthy injury history, and Baldelli's extreme platoon tendencies, it seems unlikely Larnach will see more than 135 games a year so that's going to limit his value as well. His contributions are being over-sold again, just like they were a couple years ago when he and Alex Kirilloff were future perennial All Stars around here. I think the rest of the list is probably justifiable. https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/top-twins-players-2025-julien-miranda-correa/
  6. bean5302
    Money is not the end all scenario because the Twins have major trade assets. So there would have to be a caveat where prospect assets were also locked down in addition to money. I suspect the Pohlad family has tied Falvey's hands in that regard based on what we saw last year.
  7. bean5302
    If lots of things go right, sure. The Twins could win 90 games next year if, if, if. I think they're about an 84-85 win team right now. Question marks are Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. Unexpected injuries or guys who don't play up to expectations could swing the Twins to below .500 just as easy.
  8. bean5302
    Ramirez is interesting. Despite having plus speed at one point, he's been pretty poor in the outfield in part due to his limited arm. Also, as his frame has expanded (5'11" and 232lbs listed now), his once elite sprint speed has waned. The Nationals deployed him exclusively as a DH when they got him. Not sure what happened to his swing last year, but he transformed into a ground ball machine, and I'm sure the sudden decline of Tim Anderson spooked plenty of teams holding on to similar players. I wouldn't bank on Ramirez rebounding, but he's worth a MiLB signing. If I were the Twins, I'd deploy him to the OF to see if he can handle it.
  9. bean5302
    I think the Twins can just roll with Jeffers as-is, but it'd maybe be fine to buy out a year or two of free agency on the cheap given the Twins utter lack of depth. He's under team control for 2 years a28-a29, and 2.0 WAR catchers haven't exactly made out like bandits. 2023 was an illusion powered by a .359 BABIP, and I can't see it happening again, but Jeffers is still a solid catcher IMHO. An average, 2 WAR kinda guy in 120 games or something. I think 4 years and $30MM would lock Jeffers up. 2025 - $6MM 2026 - $8MM 2027 - Free agent contract = 2yrs at $8-12MM/yr. Total 4yrs $30-38MM If we look at a similar catcher Danny Jensen just got 1yr $8.5MM coming off a down year. James McCann got 4yrs at $10MM at age 30 in free agency coming off two very good seasons. Maybe Jeffers would be more aggressive at betting on himself, but there's a lot to gamble there that he beats $30MM over the next 4 years. I don't want to lock him up beyond that. Catchers don't typically age well, and Jeffers can't afford to take much of a step back and still justify a long term contract.
  10. bean5302
    I agree with you on SWR. Lots of red flags on him. The breakdown from BTV is: 36.3 AFV (about 4 WAR over the next 6 years) 17.1 MM Expected Salary FGDC/Steamer expect a 4.66 ERA next year.
  11. bean5302
    Was just trying to find a way to give your position a little credibility. The Twins can acquire another team's controlled pre-arb/arb players any time they want regardless of whether or not the player likes it or utterly despises the Twins. The Twins' projections, player values, etc all depend on other teams and players. You cannot even get the starting value to measure anything in the Twins' organization without considering market value to other organizations, period. Calling a multi-million dollar organization with a long standing high quality track record of accuracy cited by the largest sources of MLB publishing in the biz a fun little tool is ridiculous.
  12. bean5302
    Yep. Exactly this.
  13. bean5302
    I think your argument would be more clear with an analogy. Like The Twins are not going to trade their 5 starters for 5 left fielders of equal value since the Twins don't need 5 left fielders. I still don't agree because assets can always be acquired or distributed as the Twins could turn around and trade their acquired 5 left fielders for 5 now missing rotation arms.
  14. bean5302
    It's like saying a pineapple isn't a single fruit, it's a cluster of berries (it is, technically, but it's not used that way). The article does not clearly state it's not about trade values. It opines that it's not exclusively about league-wide trade values, but then describes exactly what trade value is based on a league-wide methodology like relief pitchers being in abundance. If this was specifically a Twins-centric evaluation, Julien would be top 10 because he could find himself in 1 of the 2 most deficient positions on the club last year in 2B or DH. Baseballtradevalues accounts for projected production, controllability, upside, contract, and availability. There is no way to separate the Twins from the league in this regard because if the Twins need something, they can just acquire it either locally or from another organization. i.e. if there were 50 free agent 2B on the market, the Twins couldn't care less how good their 2B prospects are as they're easy to replace.
  15. bean5302
    The problem with these kinds of articles is how fickle the emotions of the fan base are. Here's about how things stand since well after the season ended over at BTV. I think I saw proposals for all these guy except Emmanuel Rodriguez who it seems no fanbase either wants to acquire or wants to trade away. Personally, I disagree with some of these, but that's why a site like BTV exists. To help correct fan bias. Jenkins +58.4 Ober +54.1 Ryan +53.5 Lopez +47.8 Lewis +47.3 Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV Wallner +38.1 Lee +37.0 Jax +28.8 Correa +25.8 Duran +24.7 Keaschall +23.3 Larnach +22.6 Festa +19.5 SWR +19.1 Julien +16.5 Jeffers +16.2 Miranda +16.1 Matthews +12.9 Buxton +10.4
  16. bean5302
    Gonzalez is packing on pounds and eating his way out of a potential CF position quickly. Unfortunately, despite the weight gain, he's lost the mediocre power he was showing in previous years, and if he's going to eat his way out of defensive premium positions, he's going to need that power. It's not like he's a non-prospect, but just holding his own at A+ in his 3rd professional season wasn't the big year a lot of people hoped he'd have. Mercedes hasn't had much of an opportunity to show what he's got at a level which is projectable so it's hard to say much about him. Being good in a second go 'round of rookie ball is the bare minimum level of performance to be considered a legitimate prospect. At the same time, it's tough to hold a 47 PA sample size against him with a .227 BABIP.
  17. bean5302
    Bleacher Report has the Twins as the 22nd ranked farm system. Conveniently ignored in this article is the fact Festa, Lee and Matthews all graduated from rookie status. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10136313-final-mlb-farm-system-rankings-of-the-2024-season So yeah, if you're banking on the rank as of July or August, the Twins had a top farm system. If you're talking about BoY 2024 to EoY 2024, it took a step back.
  18. bean5302
    You are making a dishonest, strawman argument. Nobody is arguing analytics shouldn't play a role in team management.
  19. bean5302
    At the moment, assuming a AAA replacement team would win 45 games in a season, FGDC shows Twins +45.0 WAR (90 wins) Royals +40.9 WAR (86 wins) Tigers +40.0 WAR (85 wins) Guardians +38.1 WAR (83 wins) White Sox +22.0 WAR (67 wins) I expect the Twins to lose some WAR and the Royals and Tigers to pick some up. The Tigers, in particular, have been connected to many big names this offseason like Flaherty, Bregman, Santander, Ha-seong Kim, Fedde, etc. The Royals haven't been mentioned much, but India and Massey are both candidates to significantly outperform the FGDC expectations. The Royals have been on record regarding the pursuit of a big bat for the middle of the order. On the rotation side, they're moving Bubic back into the rotation. If he's able to perform similar to last year in the rotation instead of the 'pen, there's major upside there, too. The biggest difference in the Royals and Tigers vs. the Twins is the expectation both Kansas City and Detroit could easily add $40MM to their payroll right now. The Twins are expected to cut $10MM.
  20. bean5302
    Does anybody believe Rocco doesn't make decisions almost exclusively based on analytics and pre-determined strategy? Baldelli does not employ analytics the same way other teams do; Baldelli appears to employ analytics (spreadsheets/databases) to the extreme end of MLB organizations blurring the line between Baldelli being a data analyst and an MLB manager. Implying Baldelli's decision making process is robotic, and that it lacks a feel for the game feels pretty fair to me, and it has nothing to do with the "the way modern baseball is played" it has to do with the way Baldelli's Twins teams have played baseball. Baldelli's record in 2019-2024 isn't great. The 2020 season is kind of a lame duck, and Baldelli's teams have truly earned a division title only once in 5 full season years, in 2019 when the team won 101 games. They've never won more than 87 games in a full season otherwise (under Falvey/Molitor, either), and no team other than the Twins, in the pitiful AL Central, has won a division title with fewer than 88 wins during Baldelli's (or Falvey's) tenure. In 6 seasons, Baldelli's teams have won 3 playoff games and been swept out in their 2 playoff appearances. Baldelli's teams have missed the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years where only 3 of 5 teams were competitive. Since Falvey's start in 2017, the division win in 2023 represents the only time a division has been won with fewer than 88 wins in a full season. In fact, there's less than a 1 in 10 shot a division winner has less than 90 wins (7.7%) and less than 90 wins hasn't even been a 50/50 shot at the Wildcard. If you want to excuse Baldelli for missing the playoffs 3 of 4 seasons, armed with a huge payroll advantage, in a division where 3 of 5 teams were undergoing full rebuilds, where the only other competitive team ran a payroll 50% lower than Baldelli's teams, where his team won fewer games than any other division winner in a full season in modern history, and the results included 2 late season collapses in 3 years, feel free. Set that bar right on the ground. Make all the excuses you like. Just know for every argument you make, I (and many others) see much stronger counterarguments as to why Baldelli isn't a good manager.
  21. bean5302
    I don't know. Kyle Hart doesn't strike me as a guy I'd be too confident in. Hart seems to be more a guy who just went to the equivalent of AA and was better. His K rate jumped, his BB rate dropped and he gave up far fewer hits. Hart's last go 'round state side was in AAA at age 30 where he put together 88 innings of 4.58 ERA pitching with 8.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 while allowing an astronomical 9.9 hits per 9. Eric Fedde had a substantial MLB track record and he underwent some major changes from his shoulder injury recovery, mechanics and pitch offerings. With all the changes, he was absolutely dominant in the KBO. Fedde was pitching at the MLB level at age 24. Fedde vs. Hart in the KBO, then Fedde in MLB 2023 Fedde - 180.1 IP, 2.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.29 xFIP, 29.5% K, 4.9% BB, 0.95 WHIP 2024 Hart - 157.0 IP, 2.69 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 28.8% K, 6.0% BB, 1.03 WHIP 2024 Fedde - 177.1 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 21.2% K, 7.2% BB, 1.16 WHIP Merrill Kelly was good in AAA at ages 24 and 25, unlike Kyle Hart, who has never enjoyed success in the high minors. Kelly's AAA line in 2014 was 114 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. He was serviceable in MLB after coming back, but it took years before Kelly became "good." It'll be interesting to see what happens with Hart. If the same regression which happened for Fedde happens with Hart, you'd be looking at: 2025 Hart - 155 IP, 4.44 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 7.40 xFIP, 20.7% K, 8.8% BB, 1.26 WHIP
  22. bean5302
    If he's taking a long term view of things... I don't know if the people talking to me today will be in the organization at the end of the year. I don't know if the philosophies being advocated today will still be aligned with the organization at the end of the year. I don't know if the team will be sold at all. I don't know if the new owners will be good owners, provided the team is sold. I don't know if this team will actually make the playoffs in the near future or if it will be burned down and rebuilt. Poor attendance, lack of recent performance, team up for sale, questionably competitive now. I'd be surprised if the Twins even get the opportunity to talk to Sasaki.
  23. bean5302
    Chris Williams (assuming the guy being talked about) is not under contract with the Twins. The Twins non-tendered him, he elected MiLB free agency and signed with the Mets.
  24. bean5302
    It's obviously "Been" but yeah, didn't know if it was some trendy new word for a second... Martin has little valuable upside left from what I've seen. I'd have liked to see him play 2B more last year to see if he could handle the position at the MLB level because that seems his most likely path to playing time. Martin's lack of ability to square up balls results in poor exit velocities and minimal power projection, but he's serviceable at the plate due to his disicipline. Unfortunately, his defensive instincts leave quite a bit to be desired. I think Martin's likely ceiling is a 1 WAR utility guy.
  25. bean5302
    Baldelli runs his team based on analytics, and I'm not sure why you're so obstinate about trying to fight that concept or is it just that "spreadsheet" is offensive now? If spreadsheet is now an offensive term, I can always add a trigger warning to my posts or perhaps I can use a less offensive term like "grid" or "table" "array" or "matrix" if you like? By the way, when is late season criticism of collapses allowed? Does Baldelli have to oversee 20 or 30 years of late season collapses until there are enough collapses which mirror each other before criticism can be levied?
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