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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    You got that right. No prospective buyer is going to be willing to drag out the purchase process. Glen Taylor set that sale up perfect. He thought they might have a core which could be successful and he was right. They went deep into the playoffs, the franchise skyrocketed in value and Taylor tried to back out.
  2. bean5302
    If you're concerned about impacts of the sale of a sports franchise after you die, I either really do not want your level of anxiety or I totally want your life soooooo bad. I haven't had a single tiny iota of concern free to dedicate to where the Twins play after I die, LOL. 1) If the Pohlad family remained owners, they could potentially move the team after 2040. Just like John Fisher is moving the Athletics. 2) An ironclad, legally binding agreement compel the Twins to play their games at Target Field until 2040 regardless of who owns them.
  3. bean5302
    Are the Pohlad's actively involved in arbitration? My guess is no. I also think the Pohlad's have a reputation for treating their employees well so it would seem like something out of character. Arbitration is a little different than it used to be a few years ago because arbitrators can't pick a mid-point value. One of the biggest problems I feel exists in arbitration is the expectation values are based on old school metrics. For a guy like Jax, that means saves, which he doesn't earn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins said they were going to offer $2MM to him in arbitration, if Jax countered with the $4MM he should have earned, it's likely the arbiter would go with the $2MM number and Jax could get hosed. He at least had the $350k bonus for pre-arb guys to fall back on? For a guy like Lewis, he might have been concerned about batting average, or the comments in the media at the end of the year impacting him if the Twins went in with a lowball like $1.25MM and Lewis was countering with $2.5MM, etc. Or perhaps the Twins and Lewis are discussing a long term deal so avoiding arbitration is just a formality... or maybe Lewis is truly disgruntled and is looking to be traded at a cheaper price? Who knows? Lewis is a Boras client so rolling over doesn't seem all that commonplace.
  4. bean5302
    Man, seems like the Twins really beat down a few of their players. Ryan, Ober and Lewis all took deals way lower than arbitration estimates. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2025.html $6.4MM actual (+3%) vs. estimate Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM $4.55MM actual (-3%) vs. estimate Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM $3.7MM actual (-14%) vs. estimate Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM $2.4MM actual (-8%) vs. estimate Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM $3.0MM actual (-21%) vs. estimate Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM $2.1MM actual (0%) vs. estimate Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM $4.1MM actual (+11%) vs. estimate Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM $1.6MM actual (-30%) vs. estimate Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM For Lewis, who wasn't happy at the end of last year, taking the deal he did is a bit surprising. Joe Ryan being willing to take a huge hit to estimates also surprises me. I wonder how the relationships between the Twins and some of these core players looks today?
  5. bean5302
    I could ride the bench and watch the game just as well as Vazquez can.
  6. bean5302
    These proposals reflect an extremely negative outlook on Jeffers or what I consider to be an indefensibly positive outlook on Wandy Peralta. Jeffers has proven to be a solid starting catcher who is making a very friendly $5MM in arbitration this year, and who is still under team control for what looks like a favorable $8MM-ish next year? Conversely, Wandy Peralta is a consecutive year negative WAR player with 2 additional player options beyond this year. Peralta is an aging, mostly neutral to negative WAR pitcher throughout his stunningly lengthy career. BTV has Peralta as -9.7 in value, Jeffers as a +16.2 in value. In order to make the deal whole, the Padres would have to throw in a top 50 MLB prospect just to balance this out. It's a truly stunning trade proposal. Assuming the Twins would be willing to part with their only likely MLB caliber catcher on the roster, I expect this trade would be possible if the Padres included Luis Campusano AND Kavares Tears.
  7. bean5302
    He has 1 option.
  8. bean5302
    The move is pretty significant. While I don't view Jair Camargo as a legitimate prospect anymore, Cartaya could be a defense first backup at the MLB level. Steamer projections: Camargo - .203/.259/.347 OPS .605 wRC+ 70 Cartaya - .198/.273/.345 OPS .618 wRC+ 75 Vazquez - .238/.284/.352 OPS .636 wRC+ 80 Gasper - .247/.343/.372 OPS .714 wRC+ 109 I think that's enough depth now to part ways with Vazquez. At least one of the catching prospects should be replacement level or better, and that's all the Twins can really "expect" from Vazquez.
  9. bean5302
    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. All those players who made the All Star games suck, and they didn't contribute anything to all of Falvey's teams not looking like the Chicago White Sox last year.
  10. bean5302
    @Nick Nelson vs. BTV seems pretty spot on to me. 1. Jenkins vs. Jenkins +58.4 2. Lewis vs. Ober +54.1 3. Ober vs. Ryan +53.5 4. Ryan vs. Lopez +47.8 5. Lopez vs. Lewis +47.3 6. Lee vs. Rodriguez +45? Nobody is asking for him on BTV 7. Rodriguez vs. Wallner +38.1 8. Wallner vs. Lee +37.0 9. Festa vs. Jax +28.8 10. Jax vs. Correa +25.8 11. Duran vs. Duran +24.7 12. Matthews vs. Keaschall +23.3 13. Keaschall vs. Larnach +22.6 14. Larnach vs. Festa +19.5 15. Jeffers vs. SWR +19.1 16. Correa vs. Julien +16.5 17. Miranda vs. Jeffers +16.2 18. Raya vs. Miranda +16.1 19. SWR vs. Matthews +12.9 20. Julien vs. Buxton +10.4 The list is pretty close to identical. The only swap is Raya vs. Buxton making the very edge, and only a Correa is more than a handful of rank spots off. If the Twins go to a World Series in the next 2 years, here's my rank of how important these players are in regard to likelihood they made major contributions to carry the team. WAR baseline expected vs. potential. 2.5 for position players/starters 1.0 for utility guys, 0.5 for relievers. 1. Lewis 2. Wallner 3. Correa 4. Duran 5. Jax 6. Everybody else.
  11. bean5302
    Buxton ranks #20th overall on BTV's values I saw as well. Right on the cusp. I tend to agree with that assessment. He's borderline top 20 value, which is to say, not a ton.
  12. bean5302
    What's this "core" Falvey built? Here's the core Falvey inherited. 2009 MVP, 6x All Star and HoF'er Joe Mauer with 2 years of team control 2021 All Star Eduardo Escobar with 2 years of team control 2008, 2017 All Star Ervin Santana with 2 years of team control 2015 All Star Brian Dozier with 3 years of team control 2021 All Star Kyle Gibson with 3 years of team control 2017 All Star Miguel Sano with 4 years of team control 2022 All Star Byron Buxton with 5 years of team control 2019 All Star Jorge Polanco with 6 years of team control 2018-2019 All Star Jose Berrios with 6 years of team control 2021 All Star Taylor Rogers with 6 years of team control 2022-2024 All Star Luis Arraez with 6 years of team control Seriously... you'd think Falvey inherited a team of garbage the way you talk. 1B - Mauer 2B - Dozier 3B - Sano SS - Polanco LF - Rosario CF - Buxton RF - Kepler Util - Escobar SP1 - Santana SP2 - Gibson SP3 - Berrios 8 players with multiple years of team control produced more value than any player on the Twins that Falvey has ever developed in his tenure. EVER. Because Falvey has never seen one of his drafted/signed/developed prospects ever produce a single 3 WAR season.
  13. bean5302
    It's a value proposition, like deferrals in a contract.
  14. bean5302
    Lewis is 6'2" tall. Not sure how light you expect him to be at that height? When it comes to speed, 2 ACL surgeries, a severe quad strain and a hip strain make it impossible to tell what his speed will be. Trevor Plouffe has talked about Lewis' throwing issues, and Plouffe seemed in disbelief the Twins haven't been able to coach Lewis on the issue. Lewis' arm is strong enough to play SS. Lewis' speed should grant him the range to play SS. Could he also play 3B/2B? Sure. 1B? I hope not. SS = +0.75 WAR 2B = +0.25 WAR 3B = +0.25 WAR 1B = -1.25 WAR
  15. bean5302
    Falvey hasn't been successful as a GM if the mark of success is pursuing a championship. 23% of teams in baseball have been to a World Series since Falvey took over, and 33% have been to a league championship game. The Twins are not one of those franchises despite Falvey inheriting essentially a playoff team with a very strong core. He was given a superior budget for the division, a superior core, a huge budget for overhauling the team's development, excellent facilities which had been freshly remodeled, and he produced bupkis (for all those unfamiliar with that term, it means goat poop).
  16. bean5302
    Seattle has made it pretty clear they're not interested in trading their rotation guys, but there are some teams out there who might be. I think Brooks Lee is a tough one to gauge. Considering how awful and overmatched he was last year, there are plenty of teams who likely don't view Lee as an attractive acquisition. There are also some other teams who likely expect Lee to make some adjustments and potentially turn into a star.
  17. bean5302
    There's a lot to consider from the Twins' perspective. Only the Twins had Berrios, and Toronto wasn't the only team making offers so the lost opportunity of other trade offers we don't even know about. From a BTV standpoint, Toronto made a massive overpay for Berrios and the Twins took it, but what if the Padres were offering MacKenzie Gore? Anyway, there's also the NPV to consider. A quality player now is worth more than a quality player in the future. I think the trade went poorly for the Twins as of right now. The Twins had the 2nd most valuable pitcher available on the trade market at the deadline in 2021 and they turned that huge asset into one guy who is almost assuredly looking at the twilight of a short and unremarkable career, and another guy who looks like they might stick around with some minimal production for a few more years. I don't believe in SWR in the rotation long term at this point (I'd take Festa over SWR), and Austin Martin has a very low ceiling at this point. While Simeon Woods Richardson still has a chance, the way he folded up shop in the 2nd half as hitters adjusted, and even potentially ran out of steam despite being an 7 year professional under the age of 25 doesn't bode well for him being successful/better conditioned/more reliable in the future.
  18. bean5302
    Not to mention Correa's response to the Giants, which was to cut off all communication, would have made it awfully clear to the Mets the "negotiation tactic" wouldn't work. Ultimately, I don't think any team would be terribly concerned about Correa's health on a 4 year contract which will start rapidly dropping in cost in 2026. I suspect many teams would be interested in Correa if the Twins were willing to eat $5-10MM off the contract in the next 2 years.
  19. bean5302
    Varland's pitches don't move well. In the bullpen, Varland can add velocity to help compensate, but I see him as a middle reliever ceiling. I've seen the same problem with him in the bullpen that I saw in the rotation which is Varland gives up a lot of very hard contact.
  20. bean5302
    Falvey's overseen eight MLB drafts. Not one of his drafted players has produced a 3.0+ fWAR season for the Twins in their careers. Not one has ever been an All Star, and while you don't like it, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Falvey to have at least produced a single bonafide star player by now. College players, on average make the MLB in 2-3 years. High school players, on average, make MLB in 3-4 years. That's "on average" not on exception, and last year, here are the players who made the All Star Game within Falvey's draft range in the American League alone... Adley Rutschman Gunnar Henderson Steven Kwan Bobby Witt, Jr. Jordan Westburg Riley Greene Jarren Duran David Fry Garrett Crochet Tarik Skubal Mason Miller Logan Gilbert That's 12 players for 15 teams who were "drafted" during Falvey's tenure who were in the All Star game. Luis Arraez was signed by Terry Ryan in 2013, dude. So yeah, it's a feather in Terry Ryan's cap. The same feather that Bill Smith gets for the load of players he signed which represented the Twins in an All Star game. Feel free to keep offering unlimited excuses.
  21. bean5302
    I mean, any of these guys could be in the ballpark of 6-10 depending on personal bias.
  22. bean5302
    Correa's "net" trade value is a little greater than Luke Keaschall's on BTV, and BTV has proven to be pretty accurate.
  23. bean5302
    Wasn't even slightly worried about Joe Ryan's injury. It's not joint related and didn't require surgery.
  24. bean5302
    Paddack is not good enough to be in the Twins' rotation, and he's not good enough to be in a serious playoff competitor's rotation all year. He is good enough to eat the 80 or so innings he will be able to pitch before becoming hurt on a team down a starter out of the gate. Paddack hasn't pitched a full season in his entire 6 year career. Thinking he'll be A) Healthy and B) Productive (ERA under 4.00) for the first time since 2019 so the Twins can move his salary after they've already eaten 70% doesn't seem realistic to me. If the Twins care about clearing space, now is the time to move Paddack.
  25. bean5302
    Have you decided Paddack is going to "dominate" in the bullpen based on his 5.0 innings of 5.40 ERA work there in 2023 where he pitched against the Angels, Athletics and Rockies to close out the season?
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