bean5302

BR's salary estimator is not exactly accurate. It shows 57 players with salary. Plus, guys like Giovanni Gallegos' option being picked up. An extra 17 players adds a lot of MLB payroll, even at league minimum.

The 2023 Rangers have been mentioned a few times recently as a comp for the 2024 Twins. I understand why people would like to make that comparison, but they're two dramatically different teams and situations in reality. 9/1 2023 Rangers (75-59) .560, Pythag (83-51) .617, +169 runs WC3 +1.5 GB 9/15 2023 Rangers (82-65) .558, Pythag (87-60) .589, +159 runs WC2 +1.5 GB 9/25 2023 Rangers (88-68) .564, Pythag (93-63) .599 +169 runs, ALW Lead +4.0 GB* *+2.5 games up on Houston for the AL West Division lead. The Rangers lost the division title on the final day of the season, tying Houston for the AL West, but losing the tiebreaker. There aren't many similarities between Minnesota and Texas. Texas had one of the best run differentials in baseball, was rising in the standings without any degree of likelihood of missing the playoffs (97.1% in playoffs, 86.9% to win the division) by this point in the season, and had recently gotten back major reinforcements in the rotation.

Polanco was always going to either be traded or option declined because of his salary and the Twins payroll. It would have been the height of incompetence for Polanco to remain on the Twins. Unbelievable, even. Farmer was expected to be traded or option declined (even Farmer was surprised he was with the Twins this year). It's only Falvey's incompetence on display that Farmer remained in a Twins uniform at $6MM. After those two guys were gone (as per any reasonable offseason plan), it was what? Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin (AAA) as 2B depth, and the Twins prefer to deploy Castro as a utility guy. Brooks Lee was coming off a poor AAA showing last year. Julien was definitely slated to be the planned primary 2B so he wasn't ever going to be a planned trade considering the Twins had no legit backup for Buxton, and they like using Castro as super utility. What actually happened (Farmer sticking around) makes it possible to consider a scenario where Julien gets traded for pitching this past offseason, but it wasn't reasonable to expect.

Every game is all hands on deck right now. We've seen Baldelli is managing the team with urgency for the past few games as the Twins are 2 (kinda 1) games back with 3 games to play. Baldelli is also likely fighting for his job... and the jobs of his bosses. I'd even venture to say panic mode has been activated.

So the implication here is Baltimore is going to throw the series against the Twins... who are the team Baltimore could potentially face in the first round of the playoffs as a result? Baltimore wouldn't want their hitters to get good looks at the Twins' bullpen pitchers and best starters just before the playoffs start?

SWR would be the scheduled Game 1 starter on Oct 1 right now. Festa on short rest? I don't see the Twins doing that, but who knows? Nice to see a win, but I think the season is done. KC, Seattle and Detroit all won tonight.

Kirilloff is going to be non-tendered and he'll have to sign a pure MiLB contract somewhere. Julien has no trade value, but he still has options. No reason to cut bait on him right now.

The Twins lost money in 2022. The Twins made money in 2023, but likely only due to the playoffs. I had no problems with ownership adjusting their payroll for opening day to avoid a possible loss if the regular season went poorly and the team didn't make the playoffs as I felt $130MM was "adequate." By the way, the Twins project annually, every year. I do feel like they built in a little "cushion" there they didn't really need, but whatever. The problem most people had with the "adjusted" payroll was virtually every single team in all of baseball would have kept (actually expanded) the budget to continue capitalizing on the growth in excitement and interest the first playoff win in 20 years created. The Pohalds decided to "adjust" it instead. What really burned me, and almost everybody else, is the trade deadline. After ownership clearly failed the fans with the TV debacle, the team was highly likely to make the playoffs again, attendance was similar, and attending was more expensive. There was every reason to substantially expand the payroll at the deadline, but the wallets remained slammed shut.

Most of the time, Target Field is empty. While attendance numbers might say a whopping 20k of people are there, the reality is actual attendance is much lower. Maybe 10k fans in the seats. The upper deck is virtually empty, and that contributes to a lack of ambiance and excitement. The "Lets get loud!" every 17 seconds is just trying to cover up for the lack of natural ambiance so it doesn't get awkward, and it exhausts the fans' enthusiasm. If you have 25% of the fans engaged with each "lets get loud" chant or event and you have a sellout, it's going to be energetic each time. Like it was in the playoffs last year. When you've got 10k people in the seats, 25% doesn't get it done.

I decided to look ahead at probable starters/order. The Twins cannot hold anything back by skipping a start to restructure their preferred starters since their back is against the wall. Lopez and Ober likely start against the Orioles the last 2 games of the season... meaning the Twins playoff rotation looks like: 10/1 Wildcard Game 1 - Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Zach Eflin (@BAL) or Hunter Brown (@HOU) 10/2 Wildcard Game 2 - David Festa vs. Corbin Burnes (@BAL) or Framber Valdez (@HOU) 10/3 Wildcard Game 3 - Pablo Lopez vs. Cade Povich (@BAL) or Yusei Kikuchi (@HOU) Doesn't look pretty.

Yes. Julien is now where Larnach was a year ago. Julien is considered low value injury replacement depth at this point. When Brooks Lee leapfrogged Julien, and Julien moped and subsequently struggled to find his game in AAA, it became clear what direction this was heading. Julien can resurrect his career still, but this has been a truly catastrophic year for him. He's going to need to swing at mediocre pitches like Larnach started doing in an attempt to put more balls in play. BB rates are going to plummet, strikeout rates should also drop, but the razors edge approach Julien had been using is clearly not sustainable.

It's not about baseball. People do not go to baseball games to "watch" baseball. People do not go to football games to watch football, etc. People go to the game for the experience. Take me out to the ballgame Take me out with the crowd Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack I don't care if I never get back Lets root, root, root for the TWINS If they don't win it's a shame For it's 1-2-3 strikes you're out At the old ball game! The bolded part of that song is the only part that has anything to do with the actual game of baseball.

From last night's game. It really was a beautiful night for baseball. It would have been better with a win or more fans in attendance to experience some really cool clouds!

Nah, he's saying that the warning track fly balls are all queued up in advance. It's part of a play Minnesota sports fans hoping for playoff runs should be familiar with. This is our yea..... ahhhh crap, not again!!!!

My season ticket rep is the same way. Email only communication, frequently out of the office, can be condescending. I have 2 club level tickets for 40 games ($58 face/ticket) ($4700 with fees). There are only 2 sections available to 40 game packages. A and R (the very ends). Considering how empty Club Level is... I'd think the gatekeeping could be cast aside. I HATED the 1-time, pre-season only, 40% merch discount. HATED. Why can we just use it once during the season? It's not like it could be stacked and merch is on sale all the time. It was a slap in the face since my normal discount is 20%... meaning for me, it was a 20% discount on merch which was immediately reduced in price once the season began. Your tickets sound like they're Left Field Bleachers? Best deal at Target Field... but those aluminum benches are cold as ICE when temps drop. Kicking people out of your seats, having kids climb over you every 3 minutes, inability to resell tickets I wasn't using, and no cupholders had me wanting to upgrade last year. Turns out, reselling extra tickets is near impossible in club level, too. I often had to take $18-25/seat, minus the 10% kick in the groin fee. Though they people buying them probably paid like $50/seat with the disgusting astronomical fees.

The payroll cut was a bit too deep, and Dave St. Peter is incompetent at marketing. Ownership falling back on Bally Sports will be felt more next year than this year as rekindling interest will be very hard. Ownership being ultra-cheap with season ticket holders and not making it up to fans at the deadline is the only direct and strong Pohlad criticism I have. Nobody forced Falvey to overplay his hand with Polanco and fail to make a move until the end of the offseason again. Nobody forced Falvey to keep Kepler despite it being clear he should have been dealt. Nobody forced Falvey to bring back Farmer or bring in Margot. That's $20MM Falvey squandered. That additional $20MM could have gone a long ways to addressing actual needs for the Twins. None of the teams' performance matters, though. The (60-97) Colorado Rockies drew 31k / game this year and (59-103) 32k / game last year. Like Mark Cuban expressed many years ago, it's about fan experience at the games. The Rockies are terrible. They have terrible ownership, but the games are heavily attended because it's a great atmosphere. Twins games are not a great atmosphere. Giveaways are cheap or tied to special ticket packages, and nobody gets them anyway. You look around the stadium with people wearing Correa jerseys you tried to show up 2hrs before game time to get. Hats and other giveaways often vanish over an hour before game time. Just a reminder the Twins don't care about fans as you sit in the empty stands. The damage done with disappointed fans far outweighs the benefit of a few fans being happy. Season ticket holders don't get a great experience, even worse again this year. Vendors in the seats calling out "hot dogs! peanuts!" finally partially returned a little this year, but have been missing for years. POS kiosks, have been unreliable, painful, slow, cumbersome messes like all the check out systems the Twins have deployed in the past 3 years. It still takes just as many staffers to walk people through the disaster of a setup. The lack of mass transit options the past couple years, finally partially rectified this year, has also impacted attendance. The real problem, though, is marketing. The failure to carry out a marketing vision to get season ticket holders to rebound. There are tens of thousands of disinterested new residents in condos and apartments around Target Field... ironic since Target Field itself was the genesis for the entire North Loop's resurrection. Dave St. Peter. King of being unable to harness that enormous asset. King of being unable to recognize trends. King of sound bytes at press conferences which get bent into "our former female marketing exec looks sexy in a dress!" and "fans should be embarrassed they don't support the team" Taking turns with Joe Pohlad shoving his foot in his mouth. Until the Twins find a marketing executive who can connect with the immediate neighborhood to rebuild the season ticket holder base, and connect with teens and young adults, it's probably going to be a bit rocky for attendance at Target Field.

Duran has been the Twins' primary closer so he has a ton of saves, and saves matter a lot in arbitration. He's going to be around $3MM because of his poor performance this year. If Duran had another year like 2022 and recorded 30+ saves, he'd be in for $5MM+ IMHO. Jax is probably going to be $4MMish as well.

Unlike Jax's slider, which has always been amazing, Varland doesn't have any plus pitches. He has a chance to be solid out of the bullpen, but I don't see him ever being elite.

Yankees 8/1+ Gerrit Cole = 2.53 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 78% QS2 (pretty awful, indeed) Clarke Schmidt* = 1.78 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 3.86 xFIP 78% QS2 Carlos Rodon = 3.10 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 67% QS2 Nestor Cortes = 2.62 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 63% QS2 *Went back 9 starts, was on IL after May 26 until his return Sept 7 Feel free to look at what the Twins are countering with again. I mean... the reigning unanimous Cy Young who averages like 5 WAR per season (30 WAR) for the last 7 years vs. a 3 WAR pitcher like Lopez (16 WAR)? After that, they've got Clark Schmidt who's been lights out recently and a resurgent Carlos Rodon. Cortes has been getting the results, too. Pick whomever you want. They're at least as good as Ober. Better ERA's and FIP's, just as consistent. Royals 8/1+ Michael Wacha = 2.68 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 4.13 xFIP, 88% QS2 Cole Ragans = 2.94 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 78% QS2 Seth Lugo = 3.90 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 60% QS2 Michael Lorenzen = 1.85 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 5.00 xFIP, 60% QS2* *Left 8/27's start with a hamstring injury. Had a rehab start on 9/16 in AAA I'll take the Royals combo of Wacha and Ragans, and their depth is certainly much more reliable as well. Mariners 8/1+ George Kirby = 5.14 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 44% QS2 Logan Gilbert = 3.58 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.49 xFIP, 56% QS2 Bryce Miller = 1.86 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 70% QS2 Bryan Woo = 3.59 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 70% QS2 Kirby and Gilbert have struggled with consistency so they look vulnerable, but Gilbert looks to be a case of bad luck while Kirby looks like he might be putting things together. Certainly better depth than the Twins, but I wouldn't consider the top of the Mariners to be an advantage over Lopez/Ober at the exact moment. Tough to say where the Mariners would put Kirby. Tigers 8/1+ Tarik Skubal = 2.78 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 78% QS2 - A top 3 Cy Young Favorite Brant Hurter* = 2.61 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, N/A Reese Olson** = 3.59 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 44% QS2 Case Mize*** = 3.97 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 22% QS2 Keider Montero = 3.86 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 50% QS2 *Not typically a starter, though he often goes about 5.0 innings after an opener. **Olson's been out with an injury until just recently. Used last 9 starts ***Mize rarely pitches deep into games, he's been out until recently, used last 9 starts. While Skubal is hands down a favorite vs. Lopez, it's a toss up after that as the Tigers' starters have hardly been reliable this year. No idea how they'd deploy them against the Twins in the event the teams somehow met. Again, the only team the Twins have a significant advantage over in terms of 1-2 punch or the rest of the options, is the Guardians. The Twins are a push against some teams, but are clearly outmatched by many. Lopez (a back end #2) and Ober (who looks like maybe a #3 now?) are seriously overrated around here.

I'd like the Twins to win the World Series, but I just don't see this team as a legitimate threat to anybody right now.

Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober match up well against anybody? Lopez and Ober are good, but they're not great as a 1-2 punch. There are plenty of other rotations in the playoffs who have a significant advantage over Lopez and Ober as a 1-2, not to mention far more depth than the Twins after that. The Twins have 2 potential opponents in in the Wild Card round. The Astros, who have a rotation which curb stomps Lopez, Ober and then everybody else we have 2x as hard after that, and the Orioles who lost their ace and #3 pitchers this year. In that instance, the Orioles do match up with the Twins top rotation options. The Astros curb stomp the Twins' options. The Royals curb stomp the Twins' options. The Yankees are better than the Twins. The Tigers are probably about on par with the Twins. The Orioles are probably about on par with the Twins. The Guardians are at a significant disadvantage on paper vs. the Twins. Not to mention, the Twins have to score runs, and since 9/1, the Twins are the 26th ranked offense in MLB with a wRC+ of a miserable 78. Luckily, at least Kansas City is also terrible over that span as well. The Orioles haven't scored the runs, but their bats should have. wRC+ by AL playoff teams since 9/1 Mariners = 133 Astros = 115 Guardians = 98 Yankees = 98 Tigers = 96 Orioles = 95 Twins = 78 Royals = 67

The Astros are a death knell for the Twins with their insurmountable rotation. Since 8/1 (QS2 = 5.0+ IP, under 4.00 ERA) Framber Valdez = 1.33 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.68 xFIP, 88% QS2 Hunter Brown = 2.17 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 89% QS2 Yusei Kikuchi = 3.00 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 2.78 xFIP, 78% QS2 All three of those pitchers are better than anybody in the Twins' rotation. Going up against a Twins' lineup which has struggled to score?

The biggest obstacle in the playoffs is scoring runs against tough starting pitchers. The Astros' rotation absolutely dominates the Twins. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi. They're all as good or better than Twins "Ace" Pablo Lopez right now. Baltimore's rotation isn't quite as smothering with their ace, Kyle Bradish out for the year, and their #3 Grayson Rodriguez out for the year (rotation). Corbin Burnes has looked vulnerable. Suarez is up and down. The Orioles' ownership had the foresight to acquire Zach Eflin at the deadline, and though the oft injured pitcher spent a couple weeks on the IL, he's been pretty dominant, and he's arguably their best pitcher atm. The 4th starter role is a toss up, but I think the Orioles might turn to Cade Povich, who has overwhelmed MLB hitters over his past few starts. Since 8/1 (QS2 = 5.0+ IP, ERA under 4.00) Eflin = 2.01 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, QS2 86% Burnes = 4.26 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, QS2 56% (100% last 5 starts) Suarez = 3.91 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, QS2 60% Povich = 4.91 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.72 xFIP QS2 57% Povich is the wildcard. His last 4 starts? 3.27 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 2.91 xFIP 12.27 K/9 (34.5%), 2.86 BB/9 (8.0%) So yeah... the Twins' lineup needs some help, and Baltimore's rotation isn't absolutely stifling.

Irvin's miserable year... As a starter 4.07 ERA, 4.20 FIP. ERA better than Lopez, Paddack. Festa, Varland and Matthews. FIP better than Matthews and Varland, essentially tied with Paddack. As a reliever 8.65 ERA, 6.63 FIP Baldelli's preferred deployment? LOOGY.

Uh, talking about Royce Lewis here.