bean5302

If the throw is on target, Martin is out there. Manufacturing runs is great, but it felt like the risk was a little higher than I'd like. I was 60/40 on him being thrown out when he turned that corner. He made it happen, though!

@DJL44 I agree with @LA VIkes Fan. Jair Camargo has really struggled at the plate this year wRC+ 65. Williams is 28, and his bat is adequate as a ceiling, but he's no defensive wizard. Winkel hasn't hit or been passable defensively. Kyle Teel sure would look good in the Twins' system since we were in desperate need of catching depth. Any money the Twins save moving Vazquez is going to have to be picked back up in free agency or the team will have to shed prospects to acquire a high end catching prospect, and that's going to be expensive. Wonder if we could swap Jenkins for Teel straight up?

I paid for what I expected to be Product A and got Product C instead. I paid a lot for product A. I was told I was getting a different version of the product than expected months after my purchase. I was hoping that would be Product B, but what I actually got was Product C. Plenty of fans had Comca$t. They paid for Product A, but only got that product for a short period of time before getting nothing at all. Luckily, on August 1st, they started getting service again, which amounts to Product B. These are simple concepts. Had ownership told season ticket holders in August last year they'd be cutting 20%-30% of the budget for 2024, and they wouldn't be willing to spend at the trade deadline even if they were in the playoff race, I wouldn't have a complaint.

Maeda lost velocity again, and we've all seen what happens there so the Twins were right to skip him over, but Sonny Gray has looked dominant most of the year again this year, save for 3 very unlucky starts recently. Sonny Gray through All Star Break - 3.34 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.80 xFIP Sonny Gray after All Star Break - 5.50 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 2.69 xFIP Sonny Gray overall - 3.91 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 2.77 xFIP Gray's curve has lost some of it's bite? His stuff+ rating this year is the best of his entire career, including his curveball rating at 119 vs. career 111 and his slider at 151 vs. career 128. His pitches are more difficult to hit vs. the average competition than they've ever been in his career. If the Twins make the playoffs with 3 rookies in the rotation (a scenario which you'd struggle to find an analyst, front office or owner saying is desirable), they still don't have a Sonny Gray caliber pitcher in their rotation. This team is at a disadvantage vs. most playoff teams when it comes to the likely starters for the first 2-3 games, though Lopez has finally shown some signs he could be a major asset. The Twins absolutely need him to be the best version of himself to have a fair chance, provided they make the playoffs. It's not during the regular season that ace starter is such a weapon, it's when you're in must win games and your lineup is facing an ace pitcher from the other team.

I have season tickets which make up a huge portion of my recreation/fun budget for a year, season tickets I've had for about half the years I've lived in Minnesota since Target Field opened and I've owned seasons for the last 3 years. I even upgraded this year. How about you? Did you invest in the Twins only to have ownership say they weren't going to match your financial commitments? My guess is you don't. I'm willing to bet your sole investment into the Twins in any given year is a handful of free to use posts on an internet fan site you don't even support. I've come to the conclusion you probably don't read my posts. These were my positions at the beginning of the year & they haven't changed. Royce Lewis is a legitimate MVP candidate if he stays healthy, but I'm not holding my breath. Matt Wallner is a potential perennial All Star, and he's going to rake. Carlos Correa will absolutely be worth his contract. Jose Miranda is a quality every day player who wasn't given a fair shake out of the gate this year. Austin Martin was a better choice than Manuel Margot These were my positions as the season went on. Zebby Matthews should be called up before David Festa because he's been so unbelievable. Payton Eeles really looks like a stud and should be in the Twins top 10, just recently. As of mid June, Rodriguez has absolutely torn up AA and can hopefully provide the plus value backup to Byron Buxton before the end of the year (this has since changed as he's missed too much time) Andrew Morris is looking like the real deal, and I think he can be a quality back end rotation piece. I was bullish on Simeon Woods Richardson prior to this year. I was bullish on Josh Winder prior to his injury woes last year thinking he had an upper rotation ceiling and a mid rotation floor. I was impressed with Charlee Soto out of Spring Training and made comments supporting him being a top prospect, and exciting at the time despite not generally caring about pitching prospects in the low minors based on how volatile they are. Next year will arrive, and the Twins are way over budget already. $10-15MM over what their budget is expected to be (even after dropping Farmer and Margot) as reported here and by other industry analysts. This same Twins franchise has won more than 87 games just once, and has won the division just twice in the past 15 years. Willi Castro is going to be $7-8MM. Lopez is at $21MM. Vazquez is at $10MM. Paddack is at $7.5MM. Buxton has a NTC. Correa has an NTC. Other than Castro, none have much surplus value to trade, even if they could be traded. The roster is not projecting as young next year, but the Twins are going to need to shed payroll, and a lot of payroll if they're going to roll with what they have right now, let alone replace any openings with free agents. But, if it makes you sleep better at night when you personally attack me for bringing a dissenting voice to the discussion, I can at least tell you that you're in the vast majority of people these days. The desire to invalidate the person and therefore silence them to win all future debates rather than actually debating any position or topic is the default in America because it's highly successful and efficient. You don't even need to know what you're talking about to win.

Considering how truly abysmal the Twins have been at developing pitching for the past 20 years, that's a pretty low bar. There's reason to be optimistic about this group, but there have been stud can't miss guys for years now who don't pan out. Again, nothing as volatile as a pitching prospect. Falvey's philosophy has been to trade pitching prospects, btw. So a guy like Soto might not even be on the team next year.

...and all of the rest of the players will get a year older. Minnesota will not be fielding a particularly young team next year. It's not bleak, it's just a fact. The Twins are already $10-15MM over next year's budget with the roster they have currently. They're going to need to clear space already, they're not an especially young team as it is. C Jeffers 28 1B Miranda 27 2B Julien 26 SS Correa 30 3B Lewis 26 LF Larnach 28 CF Buxton 31 RF Wallner 27 UI/UO Martin 26 DH Yunior Severino? 25 ------------- UI/UO Payton Eeles? 25 (Castro is overbudget) UI Brooks Lee? 24 BC Vazquez 34 avg. 27.5 (wouldn't rank youngest 5 in baseball right now) SR (1/2 of the top 4 will likely be traded for payroll space) Lopez 29 Ryan 28 Ober 29 Paddack 29 SWR 24 avg 27.8 BP Jax 30 Duran 27 Alcala 29 Stewart 33 Sands 27 Winder 28 Varland 27 Canterino? 27 avg 28.5 Total avg 27.9 yrs vs. 28.4 currently.

They definitely should have made a desperation move because desperation is the stage the Twins should have been in. Their top arm in the rotation scuffling all year (Lopez), injuries (Desclafani, Paddack) and poor performance (Varland) forcing their 7th and 8th starters as rookies (SWR, Festa) into the rotation long term and no legitimate ace in the rotation at the deadline. SWR & Festa have both already blown through their career max innings with another 40 innings of work ahead of them... However the year unfolded, the team risked needing to overpay at the deadline after Falvey failed to address the rotation weakness out of the gate. Now we're looking at our surprise 9th starter (Matthews) who started the season in A+ ball to replace one of the playoff rotation anchors (Ryan) who's been lost for the season. If the team wasn't willing to pay the piper at the deadline if things didn't go perfectly (and they didn't), they shouldn't have gambled with the risk in the first place.

Minnesota does not have a particularly young team with the average age on the roster at 28.4yrs. They're right smack dab in the middle of MLB. As far as the talent on the MLB roster, no position player under age 25 is showing promise as a great player right now. Mercifully, Jose Miranda and Matt Wallner won't be arb eligible next year, but Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff will all have crossed the arbitration threshold for 2025. I disagree Emmanuel Rodriguez is knocking at anybody's door. He's missed so much time this year I don't think there's any chance he's up before mid next year at this point because of his unique plate approach/results, and with all the arbitration eligible players coming up, the Twins are going to need to move talent to save cash based on ownership's new cheapskate philosophy. The Twins are in desperate need of their MiLB development system now if they're going to compete against more motivated franchises in the AL Central going forward. On the pitching side of things, nothing is more volatile than a pitching prospect. I don't think our pitching pipeline is that much better than the pipelines promised a couple years ago which included can't miss starter prospects like Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Josh Winder, Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow and the like. Every single one of those prospects failed as a starter with Duran turning into a good, not great reliever and Winder only showing a little promise in the bullpen. The fact so many Twins have wedged their way into the top 100 this year is commendable for sure, but there are going to be some graduates before next year. Zebby Matthews will remain on the list next year as he won't eat through his rookie status, and he's impressing the hell out of everybody having started the first 1/3 of the season A+ ball this year... nobody has ever really seen something like what he's doing. Festa's likely going to graduate, but he's holding his own, which is impressive in its own right. Lopez is expensively locked up for a bit already, but both Ober, and Ryan are hitting arbitration and will start becoming expensive in 2026. Jax, Duran, and Alcala are all reaching or across the arb threshold next year as well. Things are going to get tough.

I don't think 70 innings is that uncommon? Nobel Meyer is right there as well. Without injury, there are about 22 starts a year to be had in the low minors, 3-4 innings per start puts pitchers in that 70-90 innings range. Compared to his peers, the top prep pitchers from 2023 this year: Nobel Meyer is at 65 innings (MIA) Thomas White is at 86 innings (MIA) Charlee Soto is at 66 innings (MIN) Alex Clemmey is at 83 innings (WAS) Josh Noth is at 84 innings (MIL)

It's certainly not fair to judge Kepler on a single incident, but that anti-vaxx position he had in 2022 left me pretty bitter on his professionalism at the time. That aside, though, Kepler has been a truly great story coming from Germany which has, I think, resonated with fans. His bat has been roughly league average, but his defensive skill always made him a solid every day player. He seems to be a pretty private person based on how little info is out there about him, and he's made it clear in the past he's not remotely interested in politics. What little's out there in quotes and interviews paint Kepler as a pretty focused, but reserved sincere and nice guy. He's been a steady part of a Twins team, mostly notable because he's been a quality player while being a known face on the roster for nearly a decade, and for a Twins player, that's a truly rare situation. With about 20 career bWAR under his belt, he ranks 30th all time for the franchise, but 15th among position players to wear a "Twins" uniform just a couple behind Justin Morneau, Brian Dozier and Corey Koskie.

July 28th, 2024. Padres were 57-51 (.524), 6.5 GB from the NL West Lead and +0.5 games in the Wildcard standings. 7.7% to Win Division 55.7% to Clinch Wildcard spot 4.2% to Win World Series Today: Padres are 72-56 (.563), 4.0 GB from NL West Lead and +4.0 games in the Wildcard standings. 10.7% to Win Division 84.4% to Clinch Wildcard spot 7.2% to Win World Series (3rd highest in NL) The Padres are now a virtual lock to make the playoffs and a very strong team with a good shot at the World Series. The Padres have major liquidity issues and are in a spot where they've been needing to shed massive payroll. Their long term outlook is tough to gauge, and they play in what has been a strong division over the past decade. The future is not guaranteed, and prospects rarely work out. The Padres went for it, and them dropping 0.1% in the likelihood of winning next year's World Series is totally worth it for nearly guaranteeing a playoff spot and doubling their World Series Championship odds this year. If the Padres' gamble pays off and they go on a deep playoff run or to the World Series (much moreso if they win it), their revenue increases will more than offset any prospect capital they lose. The Padres operated like how World Series Championship teams try to operate. The Twins operated like their old goal methodology. Goal? Play .500 ball. Reach goal? Win the Division. Whoop de doo.

High Confidence Griffin Jax Jorge Alcala Jhoan Duran Confident Cole Sands Josh Winder Not ideal Louie Varland Not suitable for tight games Caleb Thielbar Trevor Richards Kody Funderburk Steven Okert Ronny Henriquez Scott Blewett

Lopez's career ERA 3.96. Just because you like Lopez or he's considered the best pitcher in the rotation doesn't mean he's earned such a lofty moniker. The Twins deploy Margot to CF out of desperation when Buxton, Castro and Martin are all unavailable. They didn't start Margot in CF for the first 26 games of the season. He's lost his speed and can't cover the position anymore. He was slowing down and his defensive metrics have been tanking for years. The Twins needed a right handed power bat for 1B or DH. They got Carlos Santana who has really played out of his mind compared to expectations, and Jose Miranda has impressed as well. Notice how I didn't add that as a deadline need. As for the rest of your strawman factory post, I have no idea what you're babbling about. Either you're trolling or you have me confused with somebody else. Given how seemingly wild your takes are... kinda leaning towards the former.

The Washington Senators are not the Minnesota Twins. I view franchise moves as essentially, the franchise goes bankrupt and ceases to exist, but that's especially the case when the "Senators" returned a year after moving away before almost immediately failing again and then becoming the Texas Rangers. This desire to tie the Twins or Minnesota to a franchise which has been dead for 65 years to find something... anything to celebrate doesn't resonate with me. Claiming Walter Johnson as a Twins player feels totally disingenuous, like desperation, despite him being arguably the greatest pitcher in the history of the game. It's not without precedent to tie a current location/team to a former location, but in many cases, the team name never changed (Brooklyn Dodgers, Philadelphia Athletics, New York Giants).

"No top 100 prospects were dealt"... but they absolutely were offered. Teams were making offers on guys like Tarik Skubal. The Twins offered a top 100 prospect in Luke Keaschall. The Twins' ownership kneecapped the front office this deadline. That's very clear. Whether or not that should have been expected by Falvey would depend on the offseason plan (and I wasn't in those meetings.) 1. Falvey did not address ANY of the team's major needs this past offseason. Ace, CF backup for Buxton, RH power bat. 2. Falvey still hit the payroll max that ownership set. At the deadline, the Twins needed an ace and they could have used a good reliever. Those problems were not addressed at least in part due to the expanded playoffs limiting the number of clear sellers, but also due to ownership. I don't know if ownership made it clear in the offseason plan that $130MM was the limit. Period. Or whether or not they told Falvey there would be flexibility at the deadline depending on the team's standing or attendance, etc. A) Ownership tells Falvey $130MM is it. No deadline expansion in salary is available. This means Falvey failed even worse as a GM planning the season and roster. B) Ownership tells Falvey $130MM is the opening year max. More money is available at the deadline depending on the team being in contention. This was my expectation based on the seemingly perplexing moves Falvey made this past offseason. In this case, ownership backtracked, sabotaged the plan, and severely hurt the team yet again this year. C) Ownership tells Falvey $130MM is the opening year max, and more money may or may not be available at the deadline based on attendance and game day revenues, etc. This is mostly on Falvey making big gambles on how everything would need to work out perfect. If a team has obvious areas of concern at the beginning of the year, but plan to address them at the trade deadline if necessary, it comes with several notable risk factors: Will there be sellers with the talent type the Twins were seeking at the deadline? Will there be budget to add to the payroll? Will competition for the talent type the Twins are seeking be intense? If the Twins don't address obvious areas of concern before the season, are they willing to risk a significant overpay to acquire talent at the deadline to make up for kicking the can down the line? How likely is the team to make the playoffs? How likely is the team to advance in the playoffs? How strong is the competition level in the division projected to be in the future or more precisely, does the team really need to sell out to go for it? Those questions needed to be asked and the appropriate plan needed to made in advance. It's seems the front office and ownership are not on the same page or one of those parties has severely failed in their planning or commitment.

All of Varland's pitches are all flat relative to his peers so his option is to throw harder, and he can throw harder out of the 'pen. Varland's xERA is 5.69 this year, his FIP is 5.84. He's earned that 6.14 ERA he has. He's not a viable starter in MLB, and while the phrase "he's pitched better recently" is supported by ERA, it's not supported by expected metrics. His FIP over his past 4 starts is 4.31 with a HR:FB rate way below his career rate, the exit velocity is still high, the hard hit rate is still poor, he still wasn't generating any pop ups or weak contact. Watching the balls fly off the bats always came with a high pucker factor. As a starter 5.27 ERA, 5.46 FIP. 8.11 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.43 WHIP As a reliever 2.20 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 11.57 K/9, 0.55 BB/9, 0.73 WHIP Varland's reliever sample size is small, but the results are promising that he might be able to overwhelm hitters with 100mph heat. As a reliever, Varland dropped his hard hit rate by 25% while doubling his soft contact rates, with 5x more pop ups generated. I'm not sure if Varland will be viable long term out of the bullpen, but he's not a viable starter. It was clear last year he wasn't going to be a viable starter after he was moved to the 'pen last year. It was made even more clear out of the gate this year when he got repeatedly shelled by rockets off bats in his initial rotation opportunity. It was confirmed when he wasn't able to impress in the rotation in AAA, being outperformed by pitchers who were forced to take jobs in the Korean League pitchers like Adam Plutko, and journeyman AAAA guys like Caleb Boushley, and a our own Randy Dobnak who's been trying to resurrect his career after permanent finger ligament damage. Could Varland ever be a functional rotation piece? Maybe. But he's going to need to pitch out of the bullpen to stay in MLB long enough to work on his craft to develop a pitch or pitches which can turn the corner against MLB hitters out of the rotation.

Thielbar had been very good recently, but I'm not sure how much of that was luck. His last few appearances aren't exactly inspiring, especially considering how poorly he performed at the beginning of the year. His last 20 games 4.21 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 3.35 xFIP. His last 10 games 5.23 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.59 xFIP. His last 5 games 6.75 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.30 xFIP. I mean, there are limited options. Okert has exchanged his best metric (strikeouts) for HRs this year, which was ill advised. Hope his stock portfolio had better trade decisions.

They're 5.0 games back and 64-63 and 6.5 GB from the Wildcard. They're pretty well out of it. 10% chance to win the division according to Fangraphs with less than a 5% shot at a Wildcard. Fangraphs projects them at 82 wins. I mean, it could theoretically happen, but it would be stunning turnaround.

I think saying the F.O. has done a generally good job building the club into an elite contender is awfully generous. 2017, inherited team, 85 wins, squeaked into the playoffs, booted immediately 2018, under .500, missed the playoffs. 2019, 101 win season 2020, Lost wildcard 2021, under .500, Missed playoffs 2022, under .500 Missed playoffs 2023, 87 win team, lost 3-1 vs. Astros in 2nd round of playoffs. 2024, 90 win projection, might make playoffs as a wildcard The only team which you could say was an "elite contender" is honestly 2019, though last year's rotation and the later year additions of Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner with a resurgent Max Kepler sure added some feeling to it. I think Richards was acquired as a pure depth move and a hedge against Thielbar (who had been near DFA) and Funderburk (who'd struggled and was injured) due to the "reverse splits" logic. It wasn't a move the Twins needed to make, but I do believe Falvey has a tendency to get distracted with every shiny object he sees. Part of me believes it was just a PR thing. They didn't want the optics of being the only team in all of MLB to not make any moves so they just did something.

Nice start for Lewis, really setting himself up for an August MiLB pitcher of the month after the first few months were pretty lack-luster due to injury and performance. I think he'd make a good candidate for some extra work in the AFL this year to get some more innings.

First of all, it's not the "Twins" as he doesn't even make top 30 prospect lists for the organization (MLB/Fangraphs/Prospects1500). Gleeman listed Keirsey at #29 to begin the season, and he was rule 5 eligible last year, but no team picked him. Apart from fans on this site, Keirsey isn't turning heads, I don't think. History of weak bat. Mediocre defense in CF. Age/experience for level. Lack of draft pedigree. Weak scouting reports and prospect profile/rank. Keirsey hasn't been good at the plate since returning from injury on June 22nd, either (nearly 200 bad PA). Anthony Prato was far more impressive last year, but he's turned back into a pumpkin.

I'm not too pessimistic on the Twins making the playoffs, but you're absolutely right on the Twins being far from secure in their position. Boston is just 3.5 games back from the last Wildcard spot. Realistically, the playoff picture is getting pretty clear in both leagues at this point. Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox (3.5 GB), Guardians, Royals, Twins, Astros. 7 teams vying for 6 playoff spots, and the Twins do not have a commanding position as the 3rd WC team right now. The NL is Phillies, Braves, Mets (2.5 GB), Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants (3.5 GB). The Giants are probably just about out of it just because they're so far behind WC2.

I'm not sure people are on the same page. Julien doesn't need to be some .900 OPS or .800 OPS hitter who makes the All Star team every year. He plays 2B (YMMV on how well you think he does that), and all he needs to do is hit above league average to be an every day player for somebody while earning league minimum and having options. That's really valuable. IMHO, every day position players should be expected to produce 2.5 WAR in a season for a playoff team. Anything at or above 2.0 WAR is a position player who isn't really dragging a playoff team's performance down. Anything at or above 3.0 WAR is a position player who is partially carrying the team to the playoffs. 45 win baseline AAA replacement level. +2.5 x 9 position/batters +1.0 x 4 bench +2.5 x 5 rotation +0.5 x 8 bullpen That's 88 wins. In the ballpark of where a team will need to be chasing a playoff spot. Average-ish 2B with a wRC+ 110 batting line is going to be a 3 WAR player (see: Gavin Lux). Even at a wRC+ 100 batting line, you're talking 2 WAR. Playable as an everyday starter. With the Twins slashing payroll and already over next year's budget just with the players they control, there are some guys who are not going to be back. Julien is potentially one of the pieces the Twins could trade. Castro and Kirilloff are almost certainly gone which will make parting with Julien much harder. How the Twins view Payton Eeles and Brooks Lee will likely have a big impact. I'm all for Julien hitting well and recovering value for the team.

In regard to the Twins' defense, it sure feels like whenever there's a game on the line, you'll find a Twins fielder making a critical error.