bean5302

Pitching+ uses the actual pitch, the location, and additional situational data when the pitch was thrown. It's not a value which tells you how good the pitch itself is. If you wanted to know how good a pitch is, you should be using stuff+ https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/

Fisher has been a gift to the Athletics who have a lousy fanbase and a terrible local government. The Athletics should have moved 20 years ago. There's a reason Oakland used to have 3 major sports franchises and now has none.

Myths and legends. I hate this kind of stuff because it's nothing more than rage-induced character assassination using twisted information. He was born in 1915 and grew up dirt poor helping his mom wash laundry to put food on the table. The great depression started in 1929 when Pohlad was 14. He spent a couple years working as a go-fer for a bank where he did small time tasks around the office and he delivered collection letters, but by the time he graduated in 1933, he had been recruited across the country to play college football. You think he owned the bank when he was in high school...

Carl Pohlad and the Pohlad brothers have always been considered generous and good people to those who know/knew them. They have also been very philanthropic in Minnesota, and they have provided a lot of stability to the franchise so I do think that's worth something as well. The Pohlad's have certainly been better owners than a few who controlled Minnesota Franchises... Norm Green, Red McCombs, Calvin Griffith, Glen Taylor (IMHO)... I don't think there's any doubt in my mind the ownership could have sold the team in the mid-2000s and that a move would have followed and been successful had ownership abandoned MSP. Owners can't be expected to lose money, and the Twins had been trying for over 15 years to get a new stadium. That's generally past the limits before a sale/move actually occurs IMHO. There has been some success, and the Twins' ownership hasn't been cheap at the level of the Guardians, Pirates, Marlins or terrible owners who foolishly inject themselves into the roster operations of a franchise like the Rockies or Angels. They just haven't been an aggressive ownership group looking to grow the brand and hold upper management accountable for failure. It's ironic, they're not great businessmen in that sense, but they keep pointing to the need to run the team like a business. Overall, I'd put the Pohlads as maybe lower mid-tier. You know what you're going to get. A generally competitive team during the regular season, but without the true investment to be a World Series threat.

Larnach is a cheap, passable every day outfielder right now, and the Twins are already very short on legitimate outfield depth. Since Larnach isn't going to bring back an MLB ready prospect or even a higher end prospect with a chance at MLB in the next couple years, I just can't see the logic in trading him unless you're going to exchange a cheap, young-ish, passable, RH corner outfielder for Larnach, and there just aren't any.

I'm just working with that the Twins roster currently looks like. Any "prospect" which is on the 26 man makes the depth thinner, but the Twins need to replace 3 infielders (Farmer, Castro, Santana) from this year somehow. When it comes to Luke Keaschall making the 26 man (no way he gets added to 40 man without getting a corresponding call up since he's not rule 5 eligible until 12/2026) after 58 games at AA seems like a desperation move by Minnesota. Gordon AA - a22, 42G .333/.381/.525 wRC+ 153 - Washed out at MLB Julien AA- a23, 113G .300/.441/.490 wRC+ 144 - Washing out at MLB Keaschall AA - a22, 58G .281/.393/.439 wRC+ 138 Lee AA - a22 87G, .292/.365/.476 wRC+ 120 - Washing out at MLB As far as the outfield, I think Kirilloff + Rooker + Larnach + Martin was just as good if not better depth, though the Twins were desperately trying to make Martin into a SS at the time.

Not to mention Larnach doesn't have much trade value. No options, arb eligible, defensively limited capping him at 2 WAR seasonal value. Maybe a surplus value of 10? Not getting an organization top 5 prospect... maybe not even a top 10 for him. Just good enough to play every day so long as he's cheap.

Are you seriously pretending the mid 90s never happened? Back when 15% returns were normal, but baseball team valuations, revenue and profits were tanking? Pro sports franchises have not outpaced traditional investment options.

I didn't create the roster. Derek Falvey did that. This is what the Twins are currently working with. I don't believe the Pohlad's are going to expand the budget, do you? If this was a "what would you do" article, I'd be changing a lot around.

#1 - Center Fielder. Buxton cannot be expected to play more than 60 games there next year and 20 games at DH. The Twins need an OF who can be an every day CF to back up Buxton, but they have nothing at the moment. Austin Martin's defense was very rough and his bat is fringe. Emmanuel Rodriguez has played 1/2 a year in AA. #2 - Second Base. Edouard Julien? 0 WAR last year and he can't play any other IF position. Brooks Lee? Negative WAR last year. Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro likely off the books. Who is trusted to be the every day 2B? #3 - Top end starter. Lopez is a back end #2. The Twins need a guy who can go out and give them a start which gives them a good chance to win the game 75% of the time next year to advance in the playoffs, provided they make them. #4 - DH. Right handed power bat, preferably. Got nothing by the time you round out the roster. #5 - LHP for the bullpen. Significant departures: Willi Castro Max Kepler Carlos Santana Manuel Margot Kyle Farmer As it stands right now, the roster probably looks like (arb estimates from MLBTR): C - Jeffers $4.7MM 1B - Miranda - $0.8MM 2B - Julien - $0.8MM 3B - Lewis - $2.3MM SS - Correa - $37.3MM LF - Larnach - $2.1MM CF - Buxton - $15MM RF - Wallner - $0.8MM DH - Severino - $0.8MM UI - Lee - $0.8MM UI - Eeles - $0.8MM UO - Martin - $0.8MM BC - Vazquez - $10MM SP1 - Lopez - $21.7MM SP2 - Ryan - $3.8MM SP3 - Ober - $4.3MM SP4 - Paddack - $7.5MM SP5 - Woods-Richardson - $0.8MM BP1 - Duran - $3.7MM BP2 - Jax - $2.6MM (I think this one is way, way low) BP3 - Stewart - $0.8MM BP4 - Sands - $0.8MM BP5 - Topa - $1.3MM BP6 - Alcala - $1.5MM (team opt) BP7 - Varland - $0.8MM BP8 - Funderburk - $0.8MM Just a little issue. There's no money in the Twins' payroll capacity. Subtotal $127.4MM +Dobnak $3.0MM +Farmer/Jackson buyouts $0.5MM Total = $130.9MM Also, also, depth is a major concern for the Twins. Probably okay with starting rotation... and that's about it. Everywhere else is REAL thin for MLB ready guys.

Acquiring the Twins will probably cost in the neighborhood of $1.5B. They typically run an operating income (profit) of about $10-20MM, which is a terrible investment, and a big chunk of revenue is about to disappear. The overall profitability of the Twins, even when considering market value, is under the S&P 500 Index fund so owning the Twins hasn't been a great investment for the Pohlad family for the last 30 years or so. In fact, most baseball teams aren't great investments. In order to provide a the return which would outperform the general stock market, you have to grow the market value, which is honestly accomplished through attendance (fan experience) or national exposure (winning World Series' or employing big name players). So there has to be another motivation behind the acquisitions.

When determining whether or not to trade a player. 1. Team goal. Are you rebuilding, staying pat or seeking to improve? 2. Who replaces Correa? 3. What teams who can afford Correa need a big upgrade at SS? 4. What is Correa's trade value or how much will the Twins have to potentially eat to move him? 5. Will Correa waive his NTC to go to the potential new team? 1. Who knows what the Pohlads expect now? Trading Correa signals a rebuild strategy to me. 2. The Twins have no proven depth at SS, and the only guy on the current roster with the physical tools to play SS is Royce Lewis, who the Twins thought was so error prone they needed to move him to 2B or something? 3. The only team I was able to identify in one of the 87 topics on this issue was the Nationals. 4. I'd say the Twins are probably going to have to eat about $10MM/yr for the next 4 years of Correa's guaranteed contract. 5. Would Correa waive his NTC to play for the Nationals? Ehhhh... I don't know. The Nationals haven't been remotely competitive since winning the World Series in 2019, and I don't think anybody expects them to really be competitive next year.

The likely biggest bonus for the organization and fans is a new owner not being tied to Dave St. Peter and the front office's failed marketing strategy. Butts in the seats = revenue. Revenue = payroll capacity. Dave St. Peter has failed in his goals for 5 straight years and he's still running the show. If a new owner puts a better marketer in place, the Twins are going to draw much better.

I think it's also worth noting.... Arte Moreno was selling the Angels last year for a couple weeks as well. Who knows what group comes forward for the Twins?

Derek Jeter did not lead that group. Bruce Sherman led the group, and he lied to Jeter about resources. Jeter said enough of that and jumped ship.

You won't have to pay any more for it. It's still going to be available on cable or OTA, whatever network decides they want to pay for broadcast rights, those broadcasters just won't have exclusive rights to broadcast (they'll have to share the rights with MLB.com).

I think this may be a necessary move at this point, even though I've been bearish on the change because of risk of getting a legitimate "bad" owner. The Pohlad's must be aware of how much anti-Pohlad sentiment there is in the metro. They've destroyed their brand as a family 2x now. Getting fans back on board won't be so easy. There's also the broadcast rights situation. For a family hell bent on not losing money on a business, operating the Twins in a manner where they could both be profitable and successful isn't a likely scenario for the next year or two. All that said, the Pohlad's have really, really messed up over the past 2 years, but they're not "bad" owners in terms of the rest of MLB. The teams I would definitely categorize as significantly worse are: Rays, Guardians, White Sox, Angels, Marlins, Pirates, Rockies. There a group of teams who have owners I don't think are substantially better than the Pohlads as well (who I think are middle-back tier right now). When it comes to the future ownership groups looking to purchase sports teams, they're are almost always committed to winning and improving the team, not just buying the team to let it sit as a .500 ball club forever. Owning a sports team is as much about dreams as business for most owners. The Pohlad family has long been committed to a base goal of .500, and a reach goal of division winning rather than the World Series. It's a seemingly unique viewpoint. Most owners are looking to win a World Series, and some are just interested in profit (Rays) or entertainment (Rockies). Still, some are... I don't know what the hell they're doing (Marlins). We'll have to see how this plays out... but Jim is feeling an awful lot like his dad, Carl, back in the mid 90s right about now. It's not a good look, and it's not a good feeling as a Twins fan.

Each team's local broadcast AAV's https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-local-broadcasting-arrangement.html Take the total broadcast values, multiply by 48% and divide by the number of teams = Rev Share Portion Take the each team's broadcast value, multiply by 52% = Team Portion Add team portion to Rev Share Portion. That's what each team makes, net, from local broadcast rights. Each team's payroll https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024/sort/cap_total2 Take up the "cooked numbers" with Spotrac (or whatever source on MLB payroll you like) and MLBTR since the data came from them.

The All Star Games are largely popularity contests. Teams who draw poorly or who aren't national darlings are going to be at a major disadvantage. I think the more fair question is whether or not a player was worth an All Star title. Correa was. Also, Correa lost a month and a half to ineffective treatment. He only missed 2 weeks once the new treatment was started. Maybe the trainers and medical staff eat a little responsibility here, too.

Local media revenues are dependent on interest. Put butts in the seats, create interest, increase local media revenue. The net difference between the #3 and #27 teams in MLB in terms of local TV revenue is $40MM. The difference between #3 and #27 in payroll? $166MM Local media revenue disparities aren't totally insignificant, but they're not crippling, either.

"Seats" is not game day revenue from butts in the seats. Add concessions, parking, merchandise sales, etc.

Incidentally, revenue sharing is creating a group of teams (like the Tampa Bay Rays) who have designed their business model off of receiving welfare (rev share) rather than trying to put together a good product. Owners who have teams who do draw fans are getting pretty PO'd about it, actually. You can see it in the most recent Tampa Bay Rays stadium situation. The new stadium is going to go pretty close to where the old stadium is. The reason people don't go to the Trop is not because it's a dump. It's because the vast majority of the local population who would attend a game can't reasonably get there over the bridge to St. Pete. The Rays owner knows the new stadium can't/won't draw any more fans, but he doesn't care. There will be a nice little economic boom right around the new stadium location he can profit from and his long term MLB profits/revenues are secure on the backs of teams committed to putting out a product people will pay for.

48% of local revenues (up from 31% in the previous CBA) go to the rev share pool. 100% of the national TV deals go the rev share pool. The largest source of revenue for any team (other than the Sacramento Athletics next year) is seating attendance. Get butts in the seats; make money. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1459400/mlb-revenue-by-type/ If the Twins sold out Target Field for the year at the average MLB ticket price, the Twins game day revenue from tickets and concessions would be about $250MM. Right now, they're making about $90MM. Nobody to blame for that other than the Pohlad's. The difference in revenue between being good at marketing and where they currently are is worth 4x their local TV revenue contracts.

Not sure what your "major categories" are. The major categories I looked up have the Twins at or below 15th.

Revenue will still come from broadcasting on cable or OTA or whatever other method gets used. There just won't be the value in the "exclusive" rights part of the package. I don't know what the numbers look like, but it certainly seems like a big part of the pie is being missed in these analysis' It's not like people without an Twins.TV sub won't be able to watch the games. The games will still be broadcast on a network for which the cable providers will pay a fee. It'll be lower, but not that much lower (from like $40MM to $4MM) for Minnesota.