bean5302

It doesn't seem like Sim, Zebby or Festa have any leash with Baldelli right now. Give up a couple hits in a row after going 3 scoreless innings, get yanked, often followed by a "bullpen blowup." I'm not sure how the Twins' bullpen is going to hang in there much longer given their own struggles. The Twins rank 23rd in MLB over the past month in innings pitched by starters. It gets worse when looking at September. The Twins are averaging a miserable 4.2 IP per start. If Baldelli is going to have the quick hook setting to maximum, it might be better to place a guy like Boushley onto the 26 man to eat innings. He should still have gas in the tank whereas Plutko is injured, Dobnak has thrown more innings than any of his last 5 seasons. Morris, SWR, Festa, and Matthews have all blown through their max career innings pitched. But, calling up a guy who hasn't earned the opportunity isn't exactly ideal in a desperate playoff struggle. Glad Lopez was able to sort out his poor performance into the middle of the season and turn into a dominant arm, and that Ober was able to balance out his luck with just a single horrifying game and one bad one. To have the bats be so inconsistent lately. This team is really a mess. No worse than the Red Sox, though. What a mess.

We're seeing Buxton and Correa because the Saints' season is over, and because the Twins don't have what they consider a good CF or SS behind them on the roster. I don't know if Buxton and Correa are being used optimally, but it sure feels like the team has to hope they can play well enough.

Wallner has played tons of balls perfectly off the right field limestone. If, if, if, if that happens differently, it's a whole new ballgame. Yeah, I'd hope if a whole bunch of stuff changes, it'd be a different ballgame. Otherwise, there would be no point to watch.

Wildcard Games Back / Last 10 Games / vs. Twins in standings 2.5 / Tigers / 6-4 / +3 games 2.5 / Mariners / 7-3 / +4 games 3.5 / Red Sox / 5-5 / +2 games At this rate, 10 games from now: 83-76 WC3 Mariners 82-77 1GB Tigers 81-77 1.5GB Twins 80-79 3.0GB Red Sox

Sure, totally possible he addresses the problem through a mechanical change, but it's also a sign he's not identifying pitches well. Also something which might be addressed with experience. Not being able to hit pitches he's swinging at a lot is why he's struggling. pitchers know where Lee is struggling, and they're going to continue to target low inside/low away until Lee either proves he can lay off them or start hitting them.

Ask and you shall receive. Btw, low and inside or low and outside are the most common locations for Lee regardless of whether or not he's batting lefty or righty. As a RHB, his whiff rate low and outside is 82%, and his swing rate is 42%. As a LHB, his whiff rate is 45% low and outside, but his swing rate is 29-37% Keep the ball low and out of the zone and Lee is helpless.

Lee's been vulnerable to low pitches, and he hasn't much all that well except meatballs.

Austin Martin is one of the only Twins hitters who has actually been carrying his weight lately. Good thing we sent him down.

9/7 - 98.1mph high fly ball out, pitch 93mph fastball, middle upper strike 9/7 - 104.9mph worm burner to 2B out, pitch 92mph fastball, inside lower section strike 9/7 - 78.7mph chopped into the ground out, pitch 92mph sinker meatball 9/10 - 92mph lazy fly out, pitch 95mph fastball, middle inside strike 9/10 - strike out swinging 88mph changeup, middle outside ball a few inches off the plate 9/10 - 92mph lazy liner out, pitch 93mph fastball, outside middle strike 9/10 - 65mph chopped into the ground, "hit", pitch 99mph fastball middle low strike 9/11 - 79mph soft lazy liner out, pitch 97mph sinker, inside lower strike 9/11 - Hit by pitch, 84mph curve 9/11 - 65mph soft lazy liner out, pitch 86mph slider, insider upper strike 9/11 - 96mph high fly ball out, pitch 95mph fastball, inside middle strike Keirsey's only "hit" was probably an out if the 1B covered first, and most of Keirsey's contact has resulted in batted balls with pretty low chances of being a hit. It's not like he's looking totally overmatched and striking out all the time, but he's not making particularly good contact despite pitchers challenging him with mostly fastballs around or in the middle middle strike zone. It's only 11 plate appearances so not much you can take away from it. Guess the Twins want to get a longer look or they feel Keirsey might help solve their defensive woes in CF.

Matthews' fastball is MLB average. It breaks better than average in both horizontal and vertical axis', but the velo is average. Zebby Matthews' stuff is fine. He's going to need experience. He started the year in A+ ball. Rocco "Quick Hook" Baldelli is back in best form.

The Tigers are the biggest threat based on how they've been generating results and playing. They're among the leaders in every facet of the game. There are some components of their performance which doesn't seem sustainable (xFIP's are much higher than ERA/FIPs, and BABIP for their hitters is inflated at .323), but Detroit was due for some BABIP luck, and it still hasn't evened out. Over the past month Batting wRC+ 108 (10th) Defense +3.5 (4th) Base Running +2.0 (10th) Starter ERA 3.11 (3rd) Starter FIP 3.44 (5th) Reliever ERA 1.92 (1st) Reliever FIP 3.20 (4th) The Tigers have moved on from Javy Baez and it's paid dividends with Trey Sweeny providing league average production at the plate. Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith are showing some signs of life, and the rest of Detroit's lineup is producing as well. It's not 1 or 2 guys carrying the team. The Twins are in a position where they need to find motivation and energy. They've undermined their spark plug, face of the franchise star player so I'm not sure it'll come from there. The other team leaders are injured and not with the team. If the team does find the motivation through desperation should the Tigers close in further, that kind of energy is more like a second wind and fades fast. The Tigers' march has been steady and consistent. The kind of performance which sustains energy and provides confidence. I suspect the Twins will miss the playoffs this year at this point, and they'll miss it due to Detroit marching past.

I'd expect Matthews would be left off the first round roster, assuming the Twins make the first round, where they will almost assuredly be 2 games and done. Assuming the Twins make the playoffs, and assuming they win the first series, Matthews might be on the roster in the ALDS, but I don't think it'll be as a traditional reliever. "Just see what happens!" doesn't seem like a great philosophy for the playoffs.

Woods Richardson's first 5 starts. 93.1mph. Woods Richardson's last 5 starts. 93.1mph. Baldelli has thrown that real quick hook out there on Sim lately. It inflates the bad numbers. Especially Sim's last outing where he gets charged with an earned run allowed by Sands. SWR was basically cruising until running into trouble in the 5th, and considering he'd allowed 0 runs in the first 4 innings, you'd think he'd get a little leash. 1. 8 pitch at bat, missed strike call on pitch 2 and SWR jusssst missed what may have been called strike 3 by a centimeter. 2. Fermin 96mph line drive single. 3. Grounder 90mph single. 4. Sac Fly 5. 6 pitch walk. Yank, Sands comes in, lets an inherited base runner scores Score? 1-0. Pitches? 70 Last Fastball? 95.1mph

The Rangers won 90 games last year and tied for the division win, losing on tiebreakers to Houston. They finished the year at +165 runs. The Twins are on pace for 86 wins and a +40 run differential, but the way they're playing, I think anything over 83 wins and +25 runs is pretty questionable. Aside from the 2023 Rangers being a far more dominant team than the Twins are this year, I've never bought into the bad teams sometimes do well arguments. It can theoretically happen, but it almost never really does.

I think Correa and Buxton playing again this year or at least playing at a high level is somewhat optimistic at this point. Correa isn't sprinting every day yet and is still sore, but he thinks he might be able to play through the pain at this point. Supposedly, Correa has some target date in mind, but he really needs a 2 week rehab assignment despite the Saints' season ending in 12 days. Even if he did return, we'd probably be getting 2023 Correa, right? In any case, he won't be back in time to make a difference to the Twins' playoff chances, I'd suspect. Buxton's saying he probably won't even be 90% this year, though he's clearly ahead of Correa by the fact he's been on a rehab assignment seeing game action recently. https://www.foxsports.com/articles/mlb/injured-carlos-correa-and-byron-buxton-getting-closer-to-returning-to-the-twins-lineup

This year's budget was probably sufficient if the front office had been creative, but they weren't. The growth in MLB payrolls has been about 4.5% for the past 20 years, but even at 4.0%, 2024's payroll will have been the lowest in over a decade. In a raw numbers measurement, it'd be the 3rd highest payroll behind the previous two seasons, but there are a lot of issues with measuring payroll that way because of how the ownership has expanded long term contracts. Correa (10yrs $280MM) and Lopez have potentially the largest and longest contracts the Twins have ever offered to a position player or pitcher at this point. I'm on board the Pohlad's shouldn't be expected to lose money or operate the business as a charity; however, they made money last year ($19MM operating income estimate from Forbes) despite their biggest problem being a lack of attendance. That attendance is the responsibility of Dave St. Peter, and he's missed goals time and again over the past several years. The ownership has not fired St. Peter despite him failing to meet expectations over and over. That's on ownership. The cable TV debacle is on ownership. The trade deadline penny pinching is on ownership. How many 10s of thousands of new residents in the immediate area of North Loop are there with all the new condos and apartments? How is it possible the Twins have been unable to attract any season ticket holders from there? It's mind boggling. Ownership incompetence is at play here. Fans are not going to bail out owners who do not care about the fans, who do not run their business effectively, and who do not offer a good game day experience.

The focus has been on the poor hitting, and for good reason, but the Twins have had lousy starting pitching and relief pitching over the past month as well. This isn't a team which is struggling in one facet. The team has been scuffling and playing poorly in every single aspect of baseball. From fielding and baserunning to hitting and pitching. All of it.

The pitchers you're talking about didn't earn their way to the big show based on expectations or past or even present results. All 3 of the rookies were buried in the depth chart, but have honestly made the absolute most they possibly could of their lucky breaks this year. I think they've all got to be incredibly happy with their situation. Simeon Woods Richardson was on his way to the bullpen or a DFA if something didn't change drastically this year. He was probably #8-9 on the rotational depth (Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, Ober, Desclafani, Varland, Festa at least ahead of him) chart coming into Spring Training. It looked like his career was over before it started. If you were to tell him he was going to start 25 games the Twins (on pace for 28) with an ERA of 3.96 before Spring Training, the guy would have been over the moon. If you'd told David Festa before Spring Training that he'd be outpitched in AAA by Randy Dobnak, and possibly by Adam Plutko, and Caleb Boushley, and he'd own an ERA near 4.00 when he got his number called, but he'd still get 10 starts (on pace for 14) at the MLB level and be considered for a playoff rotation spot, I think he'd be ecstatic, too. Then Zebby Matthews started the year in A+ ball. What would you have considered him in Minnesota's rotation depth chart? 20th? Telling him he was going to be pitching at Target Field, and his first 3 starts at the MLB level would all be good would have been unbelievable.

The Twins should be aiming for the division lead, even now. It seems like they're aiming for the sofa come playoff time, though. There are 3 teams within 3 games of the Twins at this point. The Twins face 10 of their last 18 games against teams over .500. Red Sox - also floundering, but have 3 games head to head vs. the Twins at Fenway 9/20-9/22. Tigers - quietly closing in on the Twins for quite a while, probably easier schedule. Mariners - seemingly a floundering team, but easier schedule.

Target Field was totally dead. No energy, no fans. The team has no energy or swagger, either. They're just going through the motions right now. At least Carlos Santana's absolute unwillingness to step off 1B to field a throw didn't come back to haunt us yet again. Not that it matters when the batters are totally hopeless.

Pretty sensational headline... followed with a pretty sensational assertion that if a manager calls out his club and it doesn't improve the manager is likely to be fired. Baldelli is extended through 2025, and the Pohlad family eating his contract to get rid of him seems pretty uncharacteristic. Falvey and Levine seem to be on a much hotter seat for me looking in from the outside.

@Greglw3 I'm not quoting your Nelson Cruz comparison as that's a huge post of inline data. I don't really see the relevance in regard to Cruz vs. Keirsey, either. Nelson Cruz got his first call into the big show at age 24 and then bounced back and forth between MiLB and MLB. During his time bouncing around, Cruz dominated AAA, and he raked for years prior to that at a substantially younger age than Keirsey. Cruz 2004 a23 AA = OPS .919 2005 a24 AA = OPS .965 2005 a24 AAA = OPS .873 2006 a25 AAA = wRC+ 137 2007 a26 AAA = wRC+ 181 2008 a27 AAA = wRC+ 177 2008 a27 MLB = wRC+ 168 If you wanted to play the late bloomer card, you'd need to find a player who wasn't dominating the upper minors before age 25 because guys get called up if they're hitting well in the upper minors. It's going to be nearly impossible to find a comp for DaShawn Keirsey because of that. Josh Donaldson was a good example of a late bloomer, but he was in MLB at age 24 and had a history of crushing baseballs at least sporadically back to age 21. Maybe more recently, Brent Rooker, but Rooker utterly owned MiLB and was in the big show at age 25. There's really nothing in Keirsey's profile to suggest he's going to be able to hit well enough at the MLB level to hold down a roster spot. He doesn't walk a lot. He strikes out quite a bit, and he has mediocre power. If I were to pick a comp for Keirsey, it's Trevor Larnach. Keirsey and Larnach are the same age, born only 3 months apart. Both were drafted out of college in 2018. Larnach is weak defensively, but he was still called up at age 24 because he was hitting very well in the high minors whereas Keirsey was struggling in the low minors at that point. Larnach, despite all his experience at the highest levels and the advantages of MLB experience, and the history of being a far better player than Keirsey, is still a little questionable as a reliable starter.

Pretty sure Cody is advocating the possibility of rebuilding the missing players in the aggregate like the conversation with Athletics scouts in the meeting room in Moneyball, but I don't think there's a solid foundation behind it here. Lewis is already a starter so it's not like he can replace part of any other player. Other players like Lee, Castro and Keirsey can't play defense only or pinch hitter only. They have to play both in the field and at the plate. Neither Keirsey nor Castro are as good as Buxton in the field or at the plate, let alone both, and Lee isn't as good in the field or at the plate as Correa. The argument for Festa as a potential replacement for Ryan is legitimate since at least Festa occupies a slot in the rotation he wouldn't have without injuries to Ryan, Paddack and probably DeSclafani even. Ryan's first half performances are often excellent, with poor 2nd half results, but there's a bit of a catch even here, though. Ryan was already trying to replace Pablo Lopez who was trying to replace Sonny Gray. Festa as a mid rotation playoff starter? I mean, it could happen, but it feels like an incredibly tall ask given his limited success at AAA, his inability to pitch deep into games, and his up and down results.

Drafted out of college in 2018. Every stop along the way with over 100 PA 2018 a21 (Rookie Ball) - wRC+ 111 2019 a22 (A Ball) - wRC+ 29 2020 a23 (2020) - DNP 2021 a24 (A+ Ball) - wRC+ 96 2022 a25 (AA) - wRC+ 86 ---------------------------------- This is where legitimate prospect status is lost 2023 a26 (AA) - wRC+ 123 2023 a26 (AAA) - wRC+ 93 2024 a27 (AAA) - wRC+ 116 2024 represents only the 2nd season in his entire career where he hasn't hit below average in a stop with over 100 PA. His last 256 plate appearances in AAA (since his return from injury on 6/22) is wRC+ 98. Saying Keirsey isn't known for his bat seems reasonable to me, especially since through age 25 he was below average at virtually every level of baseball. How the Twins have handled Keirsey reminds me quite a bit of Nick Gordon, except Keirsey was older and less successful at pretty much every level he played.

I think this is just a correction in luck (he was barreling like 20% of pitches in the previous 20 games) in combination with mental stress and it's got to be a gut punch to be pushed off his side of the infield for a rookie who hasn't been able to hit or play defense particularly well. Of course, Lewis' own defensive woes are obvious, but I don't see them improving without experience and consistent playing time. Kepler, Buxton and Correa are all out, and the Twins are mishandling Lewis. It doesn't matter if it's baseball or the corporate world, your employees need to feel important, valued and empowered. I can't see much of that in the Twins' management philosophies looking in from the outside so I'm not sure where the spark is supposed to come from? It's not easy to get up, get motivated, lift yourself up when you're being replaced and pushed off the job you like, the rest of the staff around you isn't performing well, and the company isn't hitting goals.